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When China Rules the World 803P_pre.indd i 5/5/09 16:50:52 803P_pre.indd ii 5/5/09 16:50:52 martin jacques When China Rules the World The Rise of the Middle Kingdom and the End of the Western World ALLEN LANE an imprint of penguin books 803P_pre.indd iii 5/5/09 16:50:52 ALLEN LANE Published by the Penguin Group Penguin Books Ltd, 80 Strand, London wc2r orl, England Penguin Group (USA) Inc., 375 Hudson Street, New York, New York 10014, USA Penguin Group (Canada), 90 Eglinton Avenue East, Suite 700, Toronto, Ontario, Canada m4p 2y3 (a division of Pearson Canada Inc.) Penguin Ireland, 25 St Stephen’s Green, Dublin 2, Ireland (a division of Penguin Books Ltd) Penguin Group (Australia), 250 Camberwell Road, Camberwell, Victoria 3124, Australia (a division of Pearson Australia Group Pty Ltd) Penguin Books India Pvt Ltd, 11 Community Centre, Panchsheel Park, New Delhi – 110 017, India Penguin Group (NZ), 67 Apollo Drive, North Shore 0632, New Zealand (a division of Pearson New Zealand Ltd) Penguin Books (South Africa) (Pty) Ltd, 24 Sturdee Avenue, Rosebank 2196, South Africa Penguin Books Ltd, Registered Offi ces: 80 Strand, London wc2r orl, England www.penguin.com First published 2009 1 Copyright © Martin Jacques, 2009 The moral right of the author has been asserted All rights reserved. Without limiting the rights under copyright reserved above, no part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in or introduced into a retrieval system, or transmitted, in any form or by any means (electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise) without the prior written permission of both the copyright owner and the above publisher of this book Typeset in 10.5/14pt Sabon by Palimpsest Book Production Limited, Grangemouth, Stirlingshire Printed in England by XXX ISBN: 978–0–713–99254–0 www.greenpenguin.co.uk Penguin Books is committed to a sustainable future for our business, our readers and our planet. Cert no. SA-COC-1592 The book in your hands is made from paper certified by the Forest Stewardship Council. 803P_pre.indd iv 5/5/09 16:50:52 For Hari My love for you has no limits, nor has it dimmed with time. I miss you more than words can ever say. 803P_pre.indd v 5/5/09 16:50:52 803P_pre.indd vi 5/5/09 16:50:52 Contents List of Figures ix List of Maps xii List of Tables xiii List of Illustrations xiv Acknowledgements xv Note on Transliteration, Names and Currency xxii Major Periods in Imperial China xxiii 1 The Changing of the Guard 1 i the end of the western world 2 The Rise of the West 23 3 Japan – Modern But Hardly Western 46 4 China’s Ignominy 70 5 Contested Modernity 100 ii the age of china 6 China as an Economic Superpower 151 7 A Civilization-State 194 8 The Middle Kingdom Mentality 233 9 China’s Own Backyard 272 10 China as a Rising Global Power 317 11 When China Rules the World 364 vii 803P_pre.indd vii 5/5/09 16:50:52 contents 12 Concluding Remarks: The Eight 415 Differences that Defi ne China Appendix: The Overseas Chinese 436 Guide to Further Reading 438 Select Bibliography 442 Notes 469 Index 541 viii 803P_pre.indd viii 5/5/09 16:50:52 List of Figures 1. Projected size of national economies. 3 2. Global distribution of military expenditure in 2005. 5 3. The fall and rise of China and India: changing shares of global GDP, 1820–2001. 30 4. The Japanese commitment to work. 60 5. Japanese expectations of the workplace. 61 6. The Japanese attitude towards rules. 60 7. Japanese pessimism about their international role and infl uence. 64 8. Japanese attitudes towards foreigners. 68 9. The world’s top twenty languages. 115 10. The role of foreign direct investment in China compared with other Asian tigers. 158 11. China’s saving rate from 1981. 160 12. Economic performance of China and the USSR compared. 161 13. The decline in poverty in China. 162 14. China’s growing dependency on oil imports. 168 15. CO2 emissions compared. 172 16. Growing concern over environmental problems. 172 17. Lenovo commands largest share of China’s PC market. 176 ix 803P_pre.indd ix 5/5/09 16:50:52 list of figures 18. Percentage of multinationals with R & D centres in various countries. 176 19. How to make a cheap car, Indian-style: the Tata Nano. 179 20. Sales of Chery cars, 2004–7. 180 21. Growth in Chinese overseas investment. 183 22. Percentage of population dissatisfi ed/satisfi ed with the condition of their country. 222 23. Future income per capita of major countries. 230 24. Growing importance of Chinese market. 282 25. East Asian attitudes towards China and the United States. 286 26. East Asian perception of bilateral relationship with China and the United States. 286 27. East Asia’s perception of Asia’s future power centre. 287 28. East Asia’s perception of their closest economic partner in 5–10 years. 287 29. Changing Taiwanese attitudes towards Taiwanese/Chinese identity. 301 30. Taiwanese support for unifi cation and for independence. 303 31. American troops in East Asia, 2007. 316 32. Naval capability, 2007. 316 33. The rising global price of commodities prior to the credit crunch. 321 34. Composition of Chinese imports from sub-Saharan Africa. 323 35. Chinese share of global consumption for commodities in 2006. 324 36. Where does China get its oil from? 325 37. Rapid growth of China’s trade with Africa. 325 38. Foreign direct investment in sub-Saharan Africa. 326 39. Comparative economic performance of China and India. 343 x 803P_pre.indd x 5/5/09 16:50:52 list of figures 40. IMF resources and countries with largest foreign exchange reserves. 362 41. Responses to the question, ‘Do you think that it is more likely that someday China’s economy will grow to be as large as the US economy or that the US economy will always stay larger than China’s?’ 366 42. Responses to the question, ‘If China’s economy were to grow to be as large as the US economy, do you think that would be mostly positive, mostly negative, or equally positive and negative?’ 366 43. Projected size of major economies, 2006–2050. 367 44. Top ten internet languages, May 2008. 381 45. World internet users, March 2008. 381 46. World’s biggest companies by market capitalization, 28 August 2007. 386 47. Response of Chinese youth to the question, ‘How many years do you believe it will take for China’s comprehensive national power to catch up with Western developed nations?’ 392 48. Response of Chinese youth to the question, ‘Do you hope that China’s future military power is . .’ 393 49. Response of Chinese youth to the question, ‘Do you believe our mili- tary power is . .’ 394 50. Response of Chinese youth to the question, ‘What role do you think China should play in international affairs?’ 395 51. Response of Chinese youth to the question, ‘Are you satisfi ed with your current living condition?’ 397 52. Response of Chinese youth to the question, ‘Do you believe you can live a better life in the future?’ 397 53. Origin of international students in the United States, 2007. 403 xi 803P_pre.indd xi 5/5/09 16:50:52 List of Maps 1. China xxiv 2. East Asia xx 3. The Overseas Empires of the European Powers, 1914 38/39 (H. G. Wells, The Outline of History, New York: Macmillan, 1921) 4. Japan’s Colonies in East Asia 66 5. Boundary of the Qin Dynasty at its Greatest Extent, c.206 BC 74 6. Boundary of the Han Dynasty at its Greatest Extent, 141–87 BC 74 7. The Expeditions of Zheng He 79 8. The Main Chinese Languages 116 9. China’s Provinces (Angus Maddison, Chinese Economic 204/205 Performance in the Long Run, Second Edition, Revised and Updated: 960–2030ad, Paris: OECD, 2007, p. 180) 10. Tibet 253 11. Chinese Claims in the South China Sea 293 12. The Disputed Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands 311 13. Territory Disputed by China and India 341 xii 803P_pre.indd xii 5/5/09 16:50:52 List of Tables 1. Japanese attitudes towards gender. 59 2. Characteristics of China’s 31 provinces in 2005. 206 3. China’s percentage share of certain commodities exported by African states. 323 4. Africa’s mineral reserves versus world reserves. 324 5. Number of Chinese in selected African countries, 2003–7. 329 6. Opinions on if and when China will replace the USA as the dominant world power. 365 7. Personal optimism. 367 xiii 803P_pre.indd xiii 5/5/09 16:50:52 List of Illustrations 1. A model of Zheng He’s ship (photograph Lars Plougmann) 79 2. The ancient Chinese world view, shown in a map from the XXX century 242 3. An image from The Autumn Banquet (1368), showing a golf-like game being played (National Museum of China) 373 xiv 803P_pre.indd xiv 5/5/09 16:50:52 Acknowledgements My interest in East Asia dates back to a visit to the region in 1993 when I also happened to meet my wife to be, Harinder Veriah, on Tioman Island, Malay- sia. The idea for this book dates back to 1996. In 1997–8 contracts were signed and plans drawn up for us to be based in Hong Kong for three years. At the beginning of November 1998 we arrived in Hong Kong with our nine- week-old son, Ravi.
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