East Asia Wrestles with Questions of Trust and Democracy 98 106

GLOBAL ASIA In Focus GLOBAL ASIA Vol. 10, No. 3, FALL 2015 98 106 112 Yun-han Chu, Yu-tzung Chang, Yun-han Chu, Hsin-hsin Pan Mark Weatherall Min-hua Huang & Wen-chin Wu & Jack Wu & Jie Lu Why authoritarian or Why are levels of Perceptions in non-democratic trust in political East Asia of China’s governments enjoy institutions in Asia’s rise and how this In Focus more popularity than democracies on will influence democratic states. the decline? US thinking. Asian Baromet er SurveyEast Asia Wrestles With Questions of Trust and Democracy 96 97 GLOBAL ASIA In Focus Asian Barometer Survey GLOBAL ASIA Vol. 10, No. 3, FALL 2015 1 Tabassum Zakaria, “US Intelligence Sees Asia’s Global Power Rising surveys from 2014 to 2016. By the end of July 2015, seven were Enter the Dragon: by 2030,” Reuters, Dec. 10, 2012: www.reuters.com/article/2012/12/10/ completed: Mongolia, Philippines, Thailand, Indonesia, Singapore, us-usa-intelligence-idUSBRE8B90HY20121210 [retrieved Aug. 13, 2015] Malaysia and Myanmar. The remaining six are Japan, Hong Kong, 2 Yan Xuetong. Ancient Chinese Thought, Modern Chinese Power. South Korea, China, Vietnam and Cambodia. Myanmar is the only Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press (2011). newly added country in wave four. See the previous three waves of How East Asians ABS data at the official website at www.asianbarometer.org/. 3 The Asian Barometer Survey’s fourth wave includes 14 country View a Rising China By Yun-han Chu, Min-hua Huang quickly emerged that called for China to prepare China has managed to become a responsible great power and argued & Jie Lu that its power competition with the US is inevita- to hold up its largely ble.2 However, those voices remained in the aca- positive image in the demic community and did not significantly affect eyes of East Asians. The China’s foreign policy until Xi completely took Barometer Survey Barometer In Focus: The Asian Barometer Survey OVER the past decade, China’s increasing eco- over political and military power in March 2013. negative effect of its has captured a vast range of nomic power, military strength and political Since then, China has revealed its ambition to act more assertive approach influence have been widely acknowledged in like a rising power by displaying its military capa- views held by East Asians on a the world, particularly in East Asia. Significant bility to the world (commissioning its first aircraft to territorial disputes has number of subjects, but perhaps changes in China’s foreign policies, shifting from carrier, the Liaoning), constructing a new inter- Asian been perhaps neutralized none has undergone such Deng Xiaoping’s principle of “concealing our abil- national financial regime through such institu- by the anticipated sharp and complex changes ity and biding our time” to Xi Jingping’s most tions as the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank recent proclamation of a “new pattern of relation- (AIIB), initiating global development strategies economic benefits that as perceptions in East Asia of ship between great powers,” have shown that Bei- such as the “One Belt, One Road” initiative, and could be brought about China’s rise and how this will jing is now vigorously seeking to engage in inter- showing its toughness in the territorial disputes in influence the position of the US. national affairs, aiming to pursue China’s national the East China Sea and South China Sea. by Beijing’s ambitious interests around the world. China’s East Asian Has China’s changing policy in world political grand strategy of the Yun-han Chu, Min-hua Huang neighbors, in view of the high stakes involved affairs altered how East Asians view China’s rise? One Belt, One Road and Jie Lu explore the evolving in their inescapable geographical, economic and Do East Asians welcome or fear China’s growing assessments across the region political connections with China, are keenly influence? Which model (Chinese versus Ameri- initiative. aware of the vigor and assertiveness associated can) do they prefer for future development? All to China’s emergence onto with these foreign policy changes. The question of these questions are crucial to understanding the global stage. of how East Asians view a rising China, therefore, how East Asians view a rising China, particularly does not just make eye-catching news headlines, whether East Asians may perceive China differ- it also has serious implications for international ently as its pursues multipronged foreign policies. relations in East Asia and the world today. In fact, the power transition from Hu Jintao to Xi Nonetheless, the change in China’s foreign pol- provides a great opportunity to examine all of the icy was not a sudden event, but rather an incre- above questions. And fortunately, the latest two mental process starting from the 2008 global waves of the Asian Barometer Survey (ABS), wave financial crisis, caused by the SU subprime mort- three and four, have collected some pertinent and gage crisis, and further accelerated in 2012 when valuable information in two critical moments Xi rose to power as the country’s top leader. Chi- associated with the transition, that is, the late na’s strong economy and robust performance dur- period of Hu’s era and early period of Xi’s era. ing the global financial crisis gave Chinese policy- makers a clear vision that the power gap between PeRcePTIONS OF CHINA’S RISE China and the US has rapidly narrowed. And if In both the ABS3 (2010-2012) and ABS4 (2014- this trend continues, China can expect to catch up now) surveys, there is the same battery of ques- in economic power no later than 2030.1 A school tions employed to measure how people think of of thought, led by prominent Chinese schol- the rise of China and related issues.3 The first ars such as Yan Xuetong at Tsinghua University, question is about perceived influence: “Which 112 113 GLOBAL ASIA In Focus Asian Barometer Survey GLOBAL ASIA Vol. 10, No. 3, FALL 2015 FIGURE 1 WHICH COUNTRY HAS THE MOST InfLUence IN ASIA? FIGURE 2 In Ten YeARS, WHICH COUNTRY WILL HAve THE MOST InfLUence IN ASIA? Source: Asian Barometer Survey Waves 3 (2010-2012) and 4 (2014-2016) Source: Asian Barometer Survey Waves 3 (2010-2012) and 4 (2014-2016) 100 100 China United States China United States % % 80 80 60 60 40 40 20 20 Barometer Survey Barometer In Focus: 0 0 Japan 2011 China 2011 China 2011 Japan 2011 Taiwan 2010 Taiwan 2014 Taiwan 2010Taiwan 2014 Asian Vietnam 2010 Thailand 2014 Thailand 2010Malaysia 2011 Vietnam 2010 Thailand 2010 Thailand 2014Malaysia 2011 Mongolia 2010Mongolia 2015 Myanmar 2015 Malaysia 2014 Indonesia 2011 Mongolia 2015Mongolia 2010 Myanmar 2015 Malaysia 2014 Indonesia 2011 Hong Kong 2012 Singapore 2010 Singapore 2015 Cambodia 2012 Philippines 2014Philippines 2010 Hong Kong 2012 Singapore 2010 Singapore 2015 Cambodia 2012 Philippines 2014Philippines 2010 South Korea 2011 South Korea 2011 country has the most influence in Asia?” Related to the Obama administration’s “pivot to Asia” pol- promoted during his second term. Under this pol- To detect Asian people’s long-term expectation results are presented in Figure 1 by a descend- icy. The only exception is Thailand, where more icy, the US government has reinforced its politi- about the region’s power reconfiguration, Asian ing order of the percentage of respondents who people picked the US (44 percent) over China (42 cal and security commitments to the region and Barometer also included a follow-up question: chose China. Overall, China’s growing power percent) in 2010, but the result was dramatically offered its Asian allies a credible hedging option “In 10 years, which country will have the most and influence in the region are widely acknowl- reversed four years later. In 2014, only 19 percent in the face of a rising and more assertive China. influence in Asia?” The results are illustrated in edged by East Asians. Specifically, there are three of Thai respondents still considered the US as the This renewed commitment enhanced its popu- Figure 2, showing an even stronger expectation important patterns. First, in countries that are most influential while 49 percent chose China. larity and even elevated its standing in the eyes of about China’s overtaking the US in this regard. territorially adjacent or culturally close to China, It is fairly understandable that China’s neigh- many Asian people. Thailand defied this regional While the same conclusion holds that East Asians the majority of their people believe China, rather boring countries (including Singapore in the cul- trend probably because the US has downgraded perceived stronger Chinese influence thanS outh- than the US, has the most influence inA sia (from tural sense) are all intensively exposed to Chi- its political and security support as a result of east Asians, the percentage of people who believe 71 percent in Hong Kong 2012 to 53 percent in na’s growing power in multiple dimensions, par- the 2014 military coup, which toppled demo- China will have the most influence in the future Singapore in 2015). Second, however, in South- ticularly in the economic and security domains. cratically elected Prime Minister Yingluck Shi- significantly increased, by more than 10 percent- east Asian countries that do not share borders However, even for those Southeast Asian coun- nawatra. In contrast, China reinforced its diplo- age points in many cases. For example, the per- with China, more people believe that the US has tries that are territorially non-adjacent, they also matic and economic support after the coup and centage increased from 71 percent to 89 percent the most influence (from 46 percent in Malaysia have very close and multi-faceted economic and became Thailand’s most reliable strategic part- in Hong Kong in 2012, from 56 percent to 83 per- in 2014 to 65 percent in the Philippines in 2010).

Load more