How East Asians View the Influence of United States vs. a Rising Yun-han Chu, Yu-tzung Chang and Min-hua Huang

1 Four Key Questions about Asian Popular Opinion 1. Which superpower, the US or China, is and will be more influential in the region? 2. Which superpower, the US or China, is more welcome and better appreciated in the region? 3. How Asian people’s perception has changed over the critical juncture of last four to five years, i.e., the period between Obama’s 1st and 2nd term and between Hu Jingtao’s 2nd and Xi Jinping’s 1st term. 4. Why drives Asian people’ s view toward a

rising China? 2 China’s Global and Regional Strategy under Xi Jinping

 More resourceful  More assertive  More ambitious  More aggressive

3 A More Resourceful China under Xi

4 Setting Global and Regional Agenda More Assertive Promoting New Model of Great Power Relations

Respecting China’s Core Interests: Territorial Disputes, and Tibet

Projecting China ’ s Cultural Soft Power Driving G20 Agenda: “Hangzhou Consensus”

5 More Ambitious Agenda: China-led globalization LhiLaunching One Belt One Road Initiative Enlargement of Shanghai Cooperation Organization

6 Manmade Reef in South China Sea

More Aggressive

Aircraft Carrier Liaoning

Anti- satellite weapons 7 Obama’s Pivot to Asia Establish an enduring framework for engggagement with Southeast Asia  Launching US-ASEAN Summit  Upgrading relationship with , Myanmar and virtually every ASEAN country except

Regaining Economic Leadership  CldiTConcluding Trans-PifiPtPacific Partnershi p negotiation Containing China’s military rise  UdiiUpgrading security cooperat iihion with Tokyo  “Rebalance” to China: new military deployment to Australia  Standing up to China in South China Sea 8 How China and US are Perceived by East AiAsians?

It is important to look at the story While Asian people have at the receivers’ side as Joe Nye increasingly been reckoned correctly pointed out that soft with the China’ s political and power depends on willing economic might, they are interpreters and receivers. not necessarily persuaded by its stated foreign policy objectives and strategic intention, and much less attracted by its political system. Very Little Empirical Data

Pew Global Attitudes Survey Not on a regularly basis, is the only cross-national BBC Global Scan poll on survey that collects public how the China' s influence opinion data on people's in the world is viewed by image about United States vs. China on regular basis. other countries only However, the Pew Survey has covered China, , covered only a few East Asian South K or ea an d countries but not the same . group each time. Only Japan and have been covered consistently. Asian Barometer Survey The Asian Barometer Survey fills • It was administered in up an important void in our fourteen East Asian countries understanding of the and territories on the basis of phenomenon of China’s rise and country-wide probability its implications for policy makers. sampling and face-to-face interview. • It can answer to what extend China’s growing economic iflinfluence an did internat iona l stature might have been translated into greater soft power.

www.asianbarometer .org Asian Barometer Third Wave Survey Schedule

Country Wave 3 Wave 4 Period Sample Size Period Sample Size 1Taiwan 2010.1-2 1592 2014.6-10 1657 2 2010.3 1200 2014.7 1200 3 2010.4-5 1210 2014.6-9 1228 4Singapore 2010.4-8 1000 2014.10-12 1039 5 Vietnam 2010.9-10 1191 2015.9-10 1200 6 Thailand 2010.8-12 1512 2014.8-10 1200 7 Korea 2011.5 1207 2015.10-12 1200 8 Indonesia 2011.5 1550 2016.1.20-26 1550 9 Mainland Chin a 2011.7-10 3473 2015.7-2016.2 4217 10 2011.10-11 1214 2014.9-11 1207 11 Japan 2011.12 1880 2015.1-2 1000 12 Cambodi a 2012.2-3 1200 2015.10-11 1200 13 2012.9 1207 2016.2-3 1000 14 Myanmar 2015.1-3 1620 12 Figure 1. Which country has the most influence in Asia now?

80% 70% China W3 W4 67% 70% 66% 61% 67% 60% 61% 61% 61% 58% 58% 57% 60% 54% 56% 56% 49% 50% 41% 42% 40% 36% 37% 30% 26%27% 23% 22% 20% 17% 10% 0% Vietnam Taiwan Mongolia Japan China Korea Thailand Malaysia Indonesia Philippines Myanmar

United States W3 W4 70% 65% 58% 59% 60%

50% 44% 46% 46% 43% 41% 40% 37% 29% 33% 31% 32% 29%27% 28% 28% 30% 25% 22% 21% 19% 16%18% 20% 13% 9% 10% 0% Vietnam Taiwan Mongolia Japan Singapore China Korea Thailand Malaysia Cambodia Indonesia Philippines Myanmar 13 Figure 2. Which country will have the most influence in ten years?

China

90% 83% 82% Wave 3 Wave 4 79% 80% 86% 72% 80% 71% 70% 70% 77% 65% 56% 60% 64% 61% 60% 50% 57% 55% 44%55% 43% 55% 40% 31%43% 30% 39% 20% 17% 10% 19% 0% Korea Taiwan China Singapore Mongolia Vietnam Japan Thailand Malaysia Cambodia Indonesia Philippines Myanmar

United States Wave 3 Wave 4 70% 65% 60% 50% 57%

40% 34% 31% 33% 39% 30% 26% 30% 16% 27% 27% 20% 15% 13% 13% 9% 10% 9% 18% 10% 14% 15% 15% 7% 12% 13% 5% 0% Korea Taiwan China Singapore Mongolia Vietnam Japan Thailand Malaysia Cambodia Indonesia Philippines Myanmar 14 Figure 3: Divergence in Perception

Proportion of Population Holding Positive View About the Impacts of China and the U.S. on the Region (Wave 4) 100%

92% 90% 90% 86% 85% 86% 83% 80% 80% 79% 79% 80% 75% 75% 75% 73% 71% 70% 67% 67%

60% 55% 55% 50% 50% 45% 41% 40% 32% 30% 28%

20% 20% 11% 10%

0% Phillip ines Vie t N am Myanmar CbdiCambodia Korea MliMongolia Singapore Japan Tha ilan d TiTaiwan HKHong Kong MlMalays ia IdIndonesi a

US China 15 Figure 4: East Asians' Positive Perception of China's and the U.S.’ Influence on Their Own Countryy( (wave 4)

100% 94% 94% 91% 90% 88% 90% 87% 86% 85% 85% 85% 82% 82% 80% 75% 75% 73% 74% 74% 69% 70% 67% 64% 60% 60%

50% 45%

40%

29% 31% 30% 24% 20% 20%

10%

0% Phillipines Viet Nam Singapore Mongolia Korea Thailand Japan Cambodia Myanmar Taiwan Hong Kong Malaysia Indonesia

US China 16 Figure 5: Divergence in Perception

Proportion of Population Holding Positive View about the Impact of China on the Region 100% 97%98%

90% 86%

78% 80% 77% 75% 73% 75% 71% 71% 70% 67% 68% 67% 64% 59% 60% 56% 55% 53% 50% 41% 40% 33%32% 30% 28%

20% 19% 20% 11% 10%

0% China Singapore Malaysia Philippines Cambodia Thailand Indonesia Taiwan Vietnam Korea Mongolia Japan Myanmar Wave 3 Wave 4 17 Figure 5: Comparing Different Surveys

Positive Image of China 100%

97% 97% 95% 95% 95% 90%

86% 85% 80%

77% 75% 70% 67% 67% 64% 63% 59% 60% 58% 58% 55% 61% 51% 52% Japan 50% 53% Korea 48% Indonesia 40% China 41% 34% 38%

30% 33% 32% 26% 26%

19% 20% 20% 23% 14% 10% 9% 10% 5% 3%

0% ABS 2010-12 ABS 2014- BBC 2012 BBC 2013 BBC 2014 Pew 2008 Pew 2009 Pew 2010 Pew 2011 Pew 2015 2016

18 Widespread Recognition of China’ s Rise

• The rise of China has been • The risk and benefit brought recognized by the great about by expanding majority of East Asians. economic ties with China has distributed veryyy unevenly. • Its growi ng i n fluence in the • As a result, popular views region is more intensively felt over the nature of China’s by countries that are impact have become geographically or culturally polarized especially in the proximate to China. Northeast Asia countries where laborers , farmers and office workers feel the economic squeeze more strongly.

19 Gains and Losses under Xi

• The ppperception of the declining influence of the United States has become more widesprea d in Thailand and Malaysia. • China ’s more asser tive approach toward the dispute over the South China Sea has evidently eroded China’s image in the Philippines and Vietnam. 20 In Malaysia, the Malay hldthlhold the leas tft favora ble view about the US impact on the region

Source: Asian Barometer Wave 4 21 Perception of China is entangled with Taiwan’s domestic cleavage

Source: ABS Wave 4

22 What Drives Asian View toward a Rising China

23 Three Comppgpeting Explanations • Geopolitical and Security Consideration – History of war or military conflict (past) – Territorial dispute (present) – Securityy() threat (future) • Economic Consideration: – Economic gains for loss – Openness vs. protectionism – Economic dependency • Ideological and Cultural Consideration – Political values – Perce ive d po litica l convergence vs. divergence – Cultural affinity vs. cultural distance Five years ago, the wider the perceived democratic distance between China and one’ s own country , the less favorable view about China’s influence.

Based on 10-point scale of democratic rating. ABS Wave 3 25 Countries that perceive the U.S. more democratic than own countries tend to have a higher percentage of positive view of the U.S.

However the importance of the perceived democratic distance between China and one’s own country has become weakened in recent years

Source: ABS Wave 4 26 The more people offering a upbeat assessment of the country’s economic condition, the more people holding fblibtfavorable view about China’s influence.

ABS Wave 3

27 Support for economic protectionism contributes to a negative perception of both China and the United States. Source: ABS Wave 4

China: Source of competitive pressure

US: Architect of liberal economic order and globalization 28 Societies with more people embracing traditional Asian values are more likely to view China ’s in fluence more positively

Source: ABS Wave 4

29 Viewing Viewing Correlation Analysis: ABS Wave 3 China' s China' s Impact on the Influence on Rubric of Cultural Explanation Region as Our Country Positive as Positive 1. Perceived Democratic Distance -.144 ** -.166 ** 2. Social Traditionalism .067 ** .131 ** 3. Liberal Democratic Values -.167 ** -.235 ** 4. Support for Democracy .020 * .032 **

Rubric of Economic Explanation 1. Support for Economic Openness .123 ** .085 ** 2. Evaluating Country's Economic Condition .323 ** .364 ** 3. Subjective Household Income .100** .079 ** 4. Currently Employed .047 ** .049 ** 30 Viewing Viewing Correlation Analysis: ABS Wave 4 China's China's Impact on the Influence on Rubric of Cultural Explanation Region as Our Country Positive as Positive 1P1. Perce ive dDd Democrat ic Distance -.035 ** -.405 ** 2. Social Traditionalism -2.07 ** .058 ** 3. Liberal Democratic Values .327** .115 ** 4. Support for Democracy .313 ** -.058 **

Rubric of Economic Explanation 1. Support for Economic Openness .266 ** - .227** 2. Evaluating Country's Economic Condition .164 ** - .186 ** 3. Subjective Household Income .026 ** . 031 ** 4. Currently Employed .023 ** - .063 ** 31 Many Asian People Are Not Prepared to Take Side In US-China Strategic Competition

Country Correlation Many Asian people Mongolia .174** either take a benign view Malaysia .320** about both U.S. and Philippines 0.053 China or a skeptical view Singapore .395** toward both. Thailand .495** Taiwan .458**

Correlation coefficients between respondents’ view of the nature US influence and that of China, ABS IV 32 Summarize Major Findings So Far

33 Political Values Matter

• The most important variables • People who are less predicating a respondent’s conscious of the difference in view on the rise of China are political system between one’s democratic rating and China and their own country political values. are more likely to consider • PlhthikthtthiPeople who think that their China as a benign country’s level of democratic superpower and evaluate level is significantly more China’ s influence in a advanced than that of China positive way. tend to view China’s rise in a negative way. Economic Explanation

•A respondent’s view on the • People who oppose rise of China is also driven by economic openness tend to his/her assessment of the view China as a threat, rather country’ s overall economic than opportunity. They also condition and/or his/her attitude toward economic tend to blame China for their openness. country' s economic troubles. • People who give an upbeat assessment of the overall economy are more likely to view China as a benign superpower. Structural Variables Are More Powerful • The explanatory power of structural variables are more • The exppyplanatory power of powerful. political ideology in terms of liberal value orientation and – Geopolitical tension perceived democratic – Trade dependence distance at individual level – Cultural distance (albeit its influence has declined) remains robust . • Contrary to the liberal view, • The explanatory power of anxiety toward a rising China economic consideration is still tend to go up when a country strong at individual level becomes highly dependent on (especially for ABS Wave 4). trade with China. 36 Challenge and Opportunity for the next President of the United States

Challenge Opportunity

 To exert its leadership role in the  The US role is far more welcome regithUSifithhdidfion, the U.S. is facing the headwind of anditditjitfd appreciated in great majority of a widespread perception of the declining Asian countries with the exception of influence of the U.S. vs. the rising power Thailand and the Muslim countries. of China. This expectation will make the  With the growing apprehension of US policy commitment less persuasive. China’s strategic intent, the US role will  The Obama’ s “Pivot” to Asia has be viewed as indispensible. In some thwarted the trend in the perception of cases, China has pushed its neighbors American declining influence, but it did into the arms of the United States. not reverse it in a significant way.

37 Further Policy Implications

• Our overall empirical findings • In the face of the intensified are compatible with the long- strategic competition between running policy pursued by a China and the United States, great majority of East Asian most of them avoid having to countries. choose one side at the obvious expense of the other. • Contrary to the theoretical predic tion o f the neo-realis ts, • Whenever possible they opt for most of East Asian countries maximizing benefits from would avoid pursuing either deepening economic ties with a clear-cutbt bal anc ing or China while maintaining a bandwagon strategy. close security relation with the United States for hedging potential risks .