How East Asians View the Influence of United States Vs. a Rising China Yun-Han Chu, Yu-Tzung Chang and Min-Hua Huang

How East Asians View the Influence of United States vs. a Rising China Yun-han Chu, Yu-tzung Chang and Min-hua Huang 1 Four Key Questions about Asian Popular Opinion 1. Which superpower, the US or China, is and will be more influential in the region? 2. Which superpower, the US or China, is more welcome and better appreciated in the region? 3. How Asian people’s perception has changed over the critical juncture of last four to five years, i.e., the period between Obama’s 1st and 2nd term and between Hu Jingtao’s 2nd and Xi Jinping’s 1st term. 4. Why drives Asian people’ s view toward a rising China? 2 China’s Global and Regional Strategy under Xi Jinping More resourceful More assertive More ambitious More aggressive 3 A More Resourceful China under Xi 4 Setting Global and Regional Agenda More Assertive Promoting New Model of Great Power Relations Respecting China’s Core Interests: Territorial Disputes, Taiwan and Tibet Projecting China ’ s Cultural Soft Power Driving G20 Agenda: “Hangzhou Consensus” 5 More Ambitious Agenda: China-led globalization LhiLaunching One Belt One Road Initiative Enlargement of Shanghai Cooperation Organization 6 Manmade Reef in South China Sea More Aggressive Aircraft Carrier Liaoning Anti- satellite weapons 7 Obama’s Pivot to Asia Establish an enduring framework for engggagement with Southeast Asia Launching US-ASEAN Summit Upgrading relationship with Vietnam, Myanmar and virtually every ASEAN country except Thailand Regaining Economic Leadership CldiTConcluding Trans-PifiPtPacific Partners hip negotiation Containing China’s military rise UdiiUpgrading security cooperat iihion with Tokyo “Rebalance” to China: new military deployment to Australia Standing up to China in South China Sea 8 How China and US are Perceived by East AiAsians? It is important to look at the story While Asian people have at the receivers’ side as Joe Nye increasingly been reckoned correctly pointed out that soft with the China’ s political and power depends on willing economic might, they are interpreters and receivers. not necessarily persuaded by its stated foreign policy objectives and strategic intention, and much less attracted by its political system. Very Little Empirical Data Pew Global Attitudes Survey Not on a regularly basis, is the only cross-national BBC Global Scan poll on survey that collects public how the China' s influence opinion data on people's in the world is viewed by image about United States vs. China on regular basis. other countries only However, the Pew Survey has covered China, Japan, covered only a few East Asian South K or ea an d countries but not the same Indonesia. group each time. Only Japan and South Korea have been covered consistently. Asian Barometer Survey The Asian Barometer Survey fills • It was administered in up an important void in our fourteen East Asian countries understanding of the and territories on the basis of phenomenon of China’s rise and country-wide probability its implications for policy makers. sampling and face-to-face interview. • It can answer to what extend China’s growing economic iflinfluence an did internat iona l stature might have been translated into greater soft power. www.asianbarometer .org Asian Barometer Third Wave Survey Schedule Country Wave 3 Wave 4 Period Sample Size Period Sample Size 1Taiwan 2010.1-2 1592 2014.6-10 1657 2 Philippines 2010.3 1200 2014.7 1200 3 Mongolia 2010.4-5 1210 2014.6-9 1228 4Singapore 2010.4-8 1000 2014.10-12 1039 5 Vietnam 2010.9-10 1191 2015.9-10 1200 6 Thailand 2010.8-12 1512 2014.8-10 1200 7 Korea 2011.5 1207 2015.10-12 1200 8 Indonesia 2011.5 1550 2016.1.20-26 1550 9 Mainland China 2011.7-10 3473 2015.7-2016.2 4217 10 Malaysia 2011.10-11 1214 2014.9-11 1207 11 Japan 2011.12 1880 2015.1-2 1000 12 Cambodia 2012.2-3 1200 2015.10-11 1200 13 Hong Kong 2012.9 1207 2016.2-3 1000 14 Myanmar 2015.1-3 1620 12 Figure 1. Which country has the most influence in Asia now? 80% 70% China W3 W4 67% 70% 66% 61% 67% 60% 61% 61% 61% 58% 58% 57% 60% 54% 56% 56% 49% 50% 41% 42% 40% 36% 37% 30% 26%27% 23% 22% 20% 17% 10% 0% Vietnam Taiwan Mongolia Japan Singapore China Korea Thailand Malaysia Cambodia Indonesia Philippines Myanmar United States W3 W4 70% 65% 58% 59% 60% 50% 44% 46% 46% 43% 41% 40% 37% 29% 33% 31% 32% 29%27% 28% 28% 30% 25% 22% 21% 19% 16%18% 20% 13% 9% 10% 0% Vietnam Taiwan Mongolia Japan Singapore China Korea Thailand Malaysia Cambodia Indonesia Philippines Myanmar 13 Figure 2. Which country will have the most influence in ten years? China 90% 83% 82% Wave 3 Wave 4 79% 80% 86% 72% 80% 71% 70% 70% 77% 65% 56% 60% 64% 61% 60% 50% 57% 55% 44%55% 43% 55% 40% 31%43% 30% 39% 20% 17% 10% 19% 0% Korea Taiwan China Singapore Mongolia Vietnam Japan Thailand Malaysia Cambodia Indonesia Philippines Myanmar United States Wave 3 Wave 4 70% 65% 60% 50% 57% 40% 34% 31% 33% 39% 30% 26% 30% 16% 27% 27% 20% 15% 13% 13% 9% 10% 9% 18% 10% 14% 15% 15% 7% 12% 13% 5% 0% Korea Taiwan China Singapore Mongolia Vietnam Japan Thailand Malaysia Cambodia Indonesia Philippines Myanmar 14 Figure 3: Divergence in Perception Proportion of Population Holding Positive View About the Impacts of China and the U.S. on the Region (Wave 4) 100% 92% 90% 90% 86% 85% 86% 83% 80% 80% 79% 79% 80% 75% 75% 75% 73% 71% 70% 67% 67% 60% 55% 55% 50% 50% 45% 41% 40% 32% 30% 28% 20% 20% 11% 10% 0% Phillip ines Vie t Nam Myanmar CbdiCambodia Korea MliMongolia Singapore Japan Tha ilan d TiTaiwan HKHong Kong MlMalays ia IdIndones ia US China 15 Figure 4: East Asians' Positive Perception of China's and the U.S.’ Influence on Their Own Countryy( (wave 4) 100% 94% 94% 91% 90% 88% 90% 87% 86% 85% 85% 85% 82% 82% 80% 75% 75% 73% 74% 74% 69% 70% 67% 64% 60% 60% 50% 45% 40% 29% 31% 30% 24% 20% 20% 10% 0% Phillipines Viet Nam Singapore Mongolia Korea Thailand Japan Cambodia Myanmar Taiwan Hong Kong Malaysia Indonesia US China 16 Figure 5: Divergence in Perception Proportion of Population Holding Positive View about the Impact of China on the Region 100% 97%98% 90% 86% 78% 80% 77% 75% 73% 75% 71% 71% 70% 67% 68% 67% 64% 59% 60% 56% 55% 53% 50% 41% 40% 33%32% 30% 28% 20% 19% 20% 11% 10% 0% China Singapore Malaysia Philippines Cambodia Thailand Indonesia Taiwan Vietnam Korea Mongolia Japan Myanmar Wave 3 Wave 4 17 Figure 5: Comparing Different Surveys Positive Image of China 100% 97% 97% 95% 95% 95% 90% 86% 85% 80% 77% 75% 70% 67% 67% 64% 63% 59% 60% 58% 58% 55% 61% 51% 52% Japan 50% 53% Korea 48% Indonesia 40% China 41% 34% 38% 30% 33% 32% 26% 26% 19% 20% 20% 23% 14% 10% 9% 10% 5% 3% 0% ABS 2010-12 ABS 2014- BBC 2012 BBC 2013 BBC 2014 Pew 2008 Pew 2009 Pew 2010 Pew 2011 Pew 2015 2016 18 Widespread Recognition of China’ s Rise • The rise of China has been • The risk and benefit brought recognized by the great about by expanding majority of East Asians. economic ties with China has distributed veryyy unevenly. • Its growi ng in fluence in the • As a result, popular views region is more intensively felt over the nature of China’s by countries that are impact have become geographically or culturally polarized especially in the proximate to China. Northeast Asia countries where laborers , farmers and office workers feel the economic squeeze more strongly. 19 Gains and Losses under Xi • The ppperception of the declining influence of the United States has become more widesprea d in Thailand and Malaysia. • China ’s more asser tive approach toward the dispute over the South China Sea has evidently eroded China’s image in the Philippines and Vietnam. 20 In Malaysia, the Malay hldthlhold the leas tft favora ble view about the US impact on the region Source: Asian Barometer Wave 4 21 Perception of China is entangled with Taiwan’s domestic cleavage Source: ABS Wave 4 22 What Drives Asian View toward a Rising China 23 Three Comppgpeting Explanations • Geopolitical and Security Consideration – History of war or military conflict (past) – Territorial dispute (present) – Securityy() threat (future) • Economic Consideration: – Economic gains for loss – Openness vs. protectionism – Economic dependency • Ideological and Cultural Consideration – Political values – Perce ive d po litica l convergence vs. divergence – Cultural affinity vs. cultural distance Five years ago, the wider the perceived democratic distance between China and one’ s own country, the less favorable view about China’s influence. Based on 10-point scale of democratic rating. ABS Wave 3 25 Countries that perceive the U.S. more democratic than own countries tend to have a higher percentage of positive view of the U.S. However the importance of the perceived democratic distance between China and one’s own country has become weakened in recent years Source: ABS Wave 4 26 The more people offering a upbeat assessment of the country’s economic condition, the more people holding fblibtfavorable view about China’s influence. ABS Wave 3 27 Support for economic protectionism contributes to a negative perception of both China and the United States. Source: ABS Wave 4 China: Source of competitive pressure US: Architect of liberal economic order and globalization 28 Societies with more people embracing traditional Asian values are more likely to view China ’s in fluence more positively Source: ABS Wave 4 29 Viewing Viewing Correlation Analysis: ABS Wave 3 China' s China' s Impact on the Influence on Rubric of Cultural Explanation Region as Our Country Positive as Positive 1.

Load more