Nuclear Security: a Fortnightly Newsletter from Caps
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NUCLEAR SECURITY: A FORTNIGHTLY NEWSLETTER FROM CAPS NUCLEAR SECURITY: A FORTNIGHTLY NEWSLETTER FROM CAPS Vol 10, No. 21, 01 September 2016 OPINION – Edward H. Klevans CONTENTS Nuclear Power’s Time Has Come OPINION Something new and promising is happening with NUCLEAR STRATEGY nuclear energy in the United States. A belief that BALLISTIC MISSILE DEFENCE nuclear technology is dispensable is giving way NUCLEAR ENERGY to a new measure of its worth – the proposition NUCLEAR COOPERATION that it is playing a quiet yet effective role in NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT reducing global-warming emissions. NUCLEAR PROLIFERATION The evidence can be found in New York state’s NUCLEAR NON-PROLIFERATION farsighted decision to reward nuclear plants for NUCLEAR SAFETY their chief advantage in electricity production: NUCLEAR SECURITY They produce zero carbon emissions. Due to a NUCLEAR WASTE MANAGEMENT clean-energy standard approved by the state’s Public Service Commission and backed by Gov. plants, including small modular reactors that Andrew Cuomo, a credit can be paid to nuclear could be built in factories for a fraction of the plants in upstate by utilities cost of today’s large that use their power. This Growing concern over climate change nuclear plants. payment is part of an effort has become a critical element in state- Most of this activity is to wean the state off fossil level discussions of nuclear energy’s being funded privately, and fuels and save reactors future. Four reactors are under it includes work on a so- battered economically by construction in the Southeast – two called traveling wave competition from cheap each in Georgia and South Carolina – reactor that, theoretically, natural gas. and a fifth is nearing completion in could be self-sustaining Tennessee after a long delay. Growing concern over and run for decades climate change has become without refueling or a critical element in state-level discussions of removing spent fuel. Traveling-wave advances nuclear energy’s future. Four reactors are under are being financed largely by Microsoft founder construction in the Southeast – two each in Bill Gates, who has become a vocal supporter of Georgia and South Carolina – and a fifth is nearing nuclear energy. completion in Tennessee after a long delay. Many environmentalists believe wind and solar While there are no firm plans to build more, as energy can be scaled up to meet the need for many as 50 nuclear companies are developing emissions-free power. But, even with federal tax designs for a new generation of advanced nuclear credits and state mandates for renewable energy Vol 10, No. 21, 01 SEPTEMBER 2016 PAGE - 1 NUCLEAR SECURITY: A FORTNIGHTLY NEWSLETTER FROM CAPS sources, wind and solar combined account for just nuclear energy infrastructure. But will 7 percent of the nation’s electricity supply. If Pennsylvania and other states with nuclear- renewables can’t do more to cut carbon emissions generating capacity be able to save plants that in this country, energy analysts have concluded are at risk of shutdown? Or build new ones? The there is little prospect of wind and solar making good news is that the discussion seems, finally, much of a dent in countries like China and India to be moving in the right direction. Ten years ago, that still rely heavily on coal. the debate over nuclear energy was fixated on A few well-known environmentalists now support plant safety and nuclear waste. Today, not so nuclear energy. Stewart Brand, author of the iconic much. Nuclear energy is not the problem. It is part Whole Earth Catalog, once opposed nuclear energy of the solution to global warming, the overarching but now says it is essential in the battle against environmental problem of our time. climate change. Another onetime critic is Carol Source: Edward H. Klevans is professor emeritus Browner, a former top environmental adviser to of nuclear engineering at Penn State University. President Barack Obama, who is now actively http://www.post-gazette.com, 12 August 2016. involved in keeping existing nuclear plants in operation. OPINION – M. Thomas Davis A lot of other people are coming to see nuclear Why a Common Missile Nuclear Missile Design energy’s value. And, despite short-term challenges is Poor Acquisition Strategy for nuclear energy – since 2014 electricity The bill to modernize the nuclear Triad’s three legs companies have either shut down or announced will be hefty, estimated at a total cost of over $300 plans to close 10 reactors, and at least 15 other billion in today’s dollars. To ease this fiscal burden, reactors are considered at high risk of being the Navy is advocating a “smart” commonality shuttered – the long-term approach, sharing designs prospects for nuclear The long-term prospects for nuclear and components between energy in America remain energy in America remain strong. in the Air Force Ground Based strong. Pennsylvania, nine reactors produce 93 Strategic Deterrent (GBSD) Here in Pennsylvania, nine percent of the state’s carbon-free and Navy’s new submarine- reactors produce 93 percent electricity, and they’re the only clean- launched ballistic missiles. of the state’s carbon-free air sources that produce electricity This proposal seeks to electricity, and they’re the around the clock. Over the past three achieve modernization of only clean-air sources that years, Pennsylvania’s nuclear plants on the two missile legs of the produce electricity around average generated electricity 92 Triad at a lower cost. percent of the time, according to the the clock. Over the past This seems practical, Energy Information Administration. three years, Pennsylvania’s considering the first of the The most efficient reactor, Three Mile nuclear plants on average Ohio-class nuclear Island unit one in Middletown, generated electricity 92 submarines will be retired produced electricity 99 percent of the percent of the time, in 2027, the Minuteman time, among the highest capacity according to the Energy ICBM is nearly 50 years old factors of any nuclear plant in the Information Administration. and will need to be world. The most efficient reactor, recapitalized by the early Three Mile Island unit one 2030s, and our B-52H in Middletown, produced electricity 99 percent of bomber fleet will be 75 years old by the time the the time, among the highest capacity factors of new B-21 bombers reach initial operating any nuclear plant in the world. capability in the mid-2030s. But the logic is fraught In short, there is an overwhelming case for with acquisition and operational risks. Historically, continued reliance on, and expansion of, America’s the promises of cost and time savings from Vol 10, No. 21, 01 SEPTEMBER 2016 PAGE - 2 NUCLEAR SECURITY: A FORTNIGHTLY NEWSLETTER FROM CAPS commonality have proved elusive. Indeed, any technical details to the Air Force. commonality-driven programs have often led to cost overruns, schedule slips, and cancellations Perhaps most troubling, however, is the — the exact outcomes the Department of Defense fundamental risk this approach introduces to our is seeking to avoid when time and money are nuclear posture. A common missile design running short. A common design is predicated undermines the Triad by introducing upon a common requirement across participating interdependencies between two of the three legs. services. But there are vast differences in For decades, the US and Russia have maintained operating environments between the Trident’s sea, air, and ground-based legs of their strategic deep blue sea and Minuteman’s underground silos nuclear forces to preserve an assured second adjacent to mid-western cornfields. strike capability. The deadly logic is that an adversary will be deterred In fact, difficulty developing from launching a surprise common requirements is a Stand-downs of entire fleets owing to nuclear attack if it believes major reason why many defects or component failures are not that the other party has the joint programs either fail to uncommon. Virtually every major ability to launch an materialize or stumble in aircraft weapons system has been equivalent retaliatory execution. Take for example grounded over the years, including the strike. Key to preserving a the 1960s tactical-fighter F-22, F-35, F-16, F-117, F/A-18 and B-1. second strike capability experimental (TFX) initiative Should a common missile component and strategic stability is meant to introduce a fail on a new generation of long-range maintaining three common tactical fighter missiles, it would adversely impact separate and independent platform. The difficulty of approximately 75 percent of the US legs of the Triad, ensuring settling on a single one-size- nuclear deterrent, forcing the US to that if one leg were fits-all set of requirements rely entirely—even if just compromised, the eventually forced the TFX to temporarily—on its limited bomber remaining legs would still break up into several fleet. stand ready. Safeguarding different aircraft programs, that independence has in including the A-10, A-7, AV-8B, F-111, and F-14. the past led the US to rule out common missile Similarly, the F-16 and F-18 were originally designs between the ground and sea legs, thus conceived as a single common light-weight fighter preventing a single point of failure. program before the services parted ways. Unfortunately, lessons encountered are not always In that light, a common design with identical lessons learned, and the F-35 program, pursuing components creating interdependencies between a common fighter for the Navy, Air Force, and the missile legs of the Triad appears unwise. Stand- Marine Corps, has also been plagued by delays downs of entire fleets owing to defects or and cost overruns. component failures are not uncommon. Virtually every major aircraft weapons system has been A good acquisition strategy seeks to lower costs grounded over the years, including the F-22, F-35, and speed schedules.