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Northernmost Border on Security Roundtable Part Two: Northernmost Border On Security Roundtable Pre-Briefing Materials for the August 28, 2019 Roundtable PART TWO: NORTHERNMOST BORDER ON SECURITY ROUNDTABLE You are invited to attend and participate in a roundtable discussion Wednesday, August 28, 2019, from 1-5pm, followed by a small reception. This discussion is Part Two of the Northernmost Border on Security Roundtable event that was held on June 6 at Joint Base Elmendorf- Richardson. We will focus on Russia, and the U.S. National Energy Policy. For questions or to RSVP, please contact Julie Kitka, President, Alaska Federation of Natives at [email protected] special guests Lt. General Thomas A. Bussiere, Commander, Alaskan Region, North American Aerospace Defense Command; Commander, Alaskan Command, U.S. Northern Command; Commander, Eleventh Air Force, Pacific Air Forces, Joint Base Elmendorf-Richardson, Alaska Featured Speaker, Rodger Baker, Senior Vice President, STRATFOR sponsored by Alaska Federation of Natives PART ONE: NORTHERNMOST BORDER NATIONAL SECURITY ROUNDTABLE Materials from this event can be found at: nativefederation.org/military-partnerships Northernmost Border Security Roundtable: Part Two Pre-reading material for the August 28, 2019 roundtable Sponsored by the Alaska Federation of Natives and the Alaska Domain Awareness Center, University of Alaska, Anchorage Dear Presenter or Participant: The attached articles are pulled together for your review prior to our upcoming roundtable. If you have a chance to review, especially the content from the U.S. Senate Energy and Natural Resources Hearing on July 11, 2019 on the Important Role of U.S. LNG in Evolving Global Markets, you will get a sense of the intersection of the varied issues raised in our first roundtable on China. We thank our Alaska Congressional Delegation for their commitment to the U.S. and Alaska, and for the way that they are factoring in security considerations in every step of their work. We look forward to welcoming Senior Military Leaders, Oil Company Executives and Alaska Native Leaders to gather once again to continue these important discussions. A big thank you to Rodger Baker, Senior Vice-President at STRATFOR in Austin, Texas for joining us again to begin the briefings. This second part of the roundtable will be a deeper dive on Russia and U.S. National Energy Policy. We will also bring these discussions home to possible impacts on Alaska and the people who live here. Special Guest U.S. Senator Lisa Murkowski will be joining us in-person for the roundtable and reception, and Mr. John Babbar, Vice President of Federal and State Government Relations, ConocoPhillips, will address the National Energy policy. We will have a written briefing document available at the Roundtable which will include further information. AFN invites you to send any additional critical information you would like included in the roundtable materials. Please email additions to me directly at [email protected]. Thank you for your time and efforts. Sincerely, Julie Kitka, President Alaska Federation of Natives July 26, 2019 3000 A STREET, SUITE 210 | ANCHORAGE, AK 99503 | PHONE: 907.274.3611 | FAX: 907.276.7989 | WWW.NATIVEFEDERATION.ORG Index of Articles Alaska's Geopolitical Significance for the United States 3 Rodger Baker, Stratfor (June 24, 2019) (https://bit.ly/2JXo9V2) The Ever-Shifting 'Strategic Triangle' Between Russia, China and the U.S. 6 Stratfor (June 7, 2019) The Geopolitics of Rare Earth Elements 13 Stratfor (April 2019) U.S. LNG Exports Are About to Reshape the Global Market 22 Stratfor (November 2018) Russia 28 What Does the End of the INF Treaty Mean for Europe? 29 Stratfor 2019 Russia's Migrant Shortage is Bigger Than Anyone Could Have Imagined 36 Stratfor 2019 Joint Interests Against the U.S. Deepen the Sino-Russian Embrace 43 Stratfor 2019 The West Fears Russia's Hybrid Warfare. They're Missing the Bigger Picture. 50 Carnegie Endowment for World Peace (July 3, 2019) The Primakov (Not Gerasimov) Doctrine in Action 54 Carnegie Endowment for World Peace (June 5, 2019) Russia establishes a new Arctic Air Squadron to protect the Northern Sea Route 66 Published in Arctic Today (July 19, 2019) Russia, China Are Key Close Partners 69 Carnegie Endowment for International Peace (June 5, 2019) Russia: Rosneft CEO Asks Government for Tax Break to Spur Investment in 72 Arctic Region Stratfor 2019 The U.S. Zeroes in on Russia's Borderlands 74 Stratfor 2018 1 China 79 Northernmost Border National Security Roundtable, Part 1 80 Alaska Federation of Natives, June 6, 2019 (https://bit.ly/32Ks0gA) Bluster, Cooperation Mark China's Arctic Summit 81 Anchorage Daily News (July 17, 2019) U.S. Energy 85 With Powers so Disposed, America and the Global Strategic Energy Competition 86 U.S. Senator Lisa Murkowski (https://bit.ly/2XWJacn) Full Committee, U.S. Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee Hearing 94 On the Important Role of US LNG in Evolving Global Markets July 11, 2019 (https://bit.ly/2XWJacn) Alaska Upstream Slides 135 Wood Mackenzie (May 2019) Alaska Gas Pipeline 152 Wood Mackenzie (April 2018) 2 Alaska's Geopolitical Significance for the United States Rodger Baker, Stratfor June 24, 2019 https://bit.ly/2JXo9V2 3 Field Notes June 24, 2019 | 17:48 GMT Sitting in my hotel room in Anchorage on a recent business trip, I was drawn to the window by the unmistakable sound of military aircraft — in this case a pair of F- 22 Raptors carrying out maneuvers in the nightless skies of the Alaskan summer. In addition to the F-22s, Alaska is preparing to host the F-35, and will soon boast the largest concentration of U.S. fifth-generation military aircraft on the planet. For those in the lower 48, this may seem an odd location for such a collection of military firepower, but as the Alaskans are fond of reminding their southern countrymen, the "father" of the American Air Force, Billy Mitchell, once told Congress that "he who holds Alaska will hold the world." On flat maps of the United States, Alaska is either stretched out of shape on the top left quadrant, or shoved in a tiny box (next to Hawaii) in the lower left. Its distance from the contiguous continental United States leaves it an outlier; a distant frontier known for gold prospecting, ice road trucking, salmon fishing, cruise ship tours and oil. The strategic significance of Alaska is often overlooked, even compared to that other distant state, Hawaii. But a simple look at a globe, rather than a flat map, quickly emphasizes just why Alaska's situation is so important. During his 1935 comments to the House Military Affairs Commission, Mitchell, a long-term advocate of air power in an era of land and sea power, reminded his 4 listeners of the realities of a round, rather than flat, world: "Alaska is the most central place in the world for aircraft, and that is true either of Europe, Asia, or North America." We may be taught that the shortest distance between two points is a straight line, but Euclid lived on a flat earth. As any aviator of seafarer knows, the shortest distance between two points is an arc. And in aviation, it is the plotting of great circle routes that shows the quickest flight path to any destination. In that sense, Alaska sits at the intersection of North America, Asia and Europe, a critical intersection for U.S. strategic security. Washington may be closer to Western European capitals, but Anchorage is close to both Europe and Asia. By air, Anchorage is 825 miles further from London than DC and 360 miles further from Berlin, but it is 500 miles closer to Moscow, nearly 3,000 miles closer to Beijing and more than 3,000 miles closer to Tokyo. In short, when we remember we live on a globe rather than a flat map, Alaska's strategic location becomes readily apparent. There is a reason Alaska is also a central component of U.S. ballistic missile defense. An added significance of Alaska's location is its position in the Arctic, an area of increasing strategic importance as new maritime routes are opening up, energy and mineral resources are becoming more accessible and maritime food resources are shifting location and patterns. During the Cold War we were often reminded of the strategic significance of the Arctic when seeing pictures or movies depicting a U.S. nuclear missile submarine busting through the ice — a show of U.S. power on the Soviet doorstep. Today, it's more than submarines moving through the inhospitable frozen North. As we think of the changing world around us, and the revival of focus on great power competition, it may be a good time to dust off those old Polar projection maps — or maybe even dust off that globe. After all, the world is far from flat. Article Search 5 The Ever-Shifting 'Strategic Triangle' Between Russia, China and the U.S. Stratfor June 7, 2019 6 ARTICLE June 07 2019 05:30:00 GMT The Ever-Shifting 'Strategic Triangle' Between Russia, China and the U.S. The U.S. trade war with China and Washington's prolonged standoff with Russia — over matters from Iran to Venezuela to arms control — are increasingly driving Moscow and Beijing toward each other. Chinese President Xi Jinping is attending the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum June 6-7, but not before meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow earlier in the week. China and Russia have signed economic deals that span everything from 5G networks to hydropower plant construction to establishing a joint research and technology innovation fund. The deals come in the wake of Moscow's recently indicated desire to collaborate with China in the Arctic's Northern Sea Route [1] as part of Beijing's Maritime Silk Road initiative, while the massive Power of Siberia pipeline [2] is completing the final phase of construction and is set to begin pumping ever-larger volumes of Russian natural gas to China by the end of this year.
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