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WALMART STORES INC Report Created Mar 30, 2020 Page 1 of 7 Walmart Is the World's Largest Retailer NYSE: WMT WALMART STORES INC Report created Mar 30, 2020 Page 1 OF 7 Walmart is the world's largest retailer. In the fiscal year ended January 31, 2020, sales were $520 billion. Argus Recommendations The company has three segments: Walmart Stores, which accounted for about 66% of sales; Sam's Club, a membership warehouse chain, which comprised 11% of revenue; and the International segment, which generated 23% of sales. The company, based in Bentonville, Arkansas, ended fiscal 2020 with more than Twelve Month Rating SELL HOLD BUY 11,500 retail units in about 27 countries. Groceries are the largest produce category in the U.S. market, at approximately 56% of sales. E-commerce sales grew 37% in FY20 and management expects them to grow Five Year Rating SELL HOLD BUY about 30% in FY21. The fiscal year ends on January 31 for U.S. and Canadian operations. Other operations are generally consolidated using a one month lag on a calendar year basis. Under Market Over Sector Rating Weight Weight Weight Analyst's Notes Argus assigns a 12-month BUY, HOLD, or SELL rating to each stock under coverage. Analysis by Christopher Graja, CFA, March 30, 2020 • BUY-rated stocks are expected to outperform the market (the benchmark S&P 500 Index) on a risk-adjusted basis over the ARGUS RATING: BUY next year. • HOLD-rated stocks are expected to perform in line with the • Maintaining BUY as WMT hires 150,000 to meet demand market. • In this turbulent environment, Argus is recommending that investors dollar-average into existing • SELL-rated stocks are expected to underperform the market long-term positions in the highest-quality stocks. on a risk-adjusted basis. The distribution of ratings across Argus' entire company • We believe that WMT, with excellent operating efficiency, AA credit ratings, and a record of raising its universe is: 65% Buy, 34% Hold, 1% Sell. dividend every year since 1974 is one of these companies. We are maintaining our $130 price target. • The company is hiring 150,000 temporary associates, to meet 'increased demand.' Key Statistics • WMT is paying special bonuses and paying regular bonuses early to help associates. Key Statistics pricing data reflects previous trading day's closing price. Other applicable data are trailing 12-months unless INVESTMENT THESIS otherwise specified We are reiterating our BUY recommendation on Walmart Inc. (NYSE: WMT) and Market Overview maintaining our target price at $130. While the coronavirus outbreak is devastating the Price $109.58 economy and large components of the retail market, we believe Walmart will be a survivor. Target Price $130.00 In this turbulent environment, Argus is recommending that investors dollar-average into 52 Week Price Range $96.53 to $128.08 existing long-term positions in the highest-quality stocks. Investors may also considering Shares Outstanding 2.83 Billion initiating new positions at discounted prices, while being aware of the risks of future Dividend $2.16 volatility in individual positions. Historically, periods of severe stock-market turbulence Sector Overview have proven to be good times for careful and disciplined stock selection, with a focus on Sector Consumer Staples the highest-quality and financially strongest names. Sector Rating UNDER WEIGHT We believe that WMT, with excellent operating efficiency, AA credit ratings, and a Total % of S&P 500 Market Cap. 7.00% record of raising its dividend every year since 1974 is one of these companies. Financial Strength While many other businesses are shutting their doors or laying off workers, WMT Financial Strength Rating MEDIUM-HIGH announced, on March 19, that it will pay a special $300 bonus to full-time hourly workers Debt/Capital Ratio 47.0% and $150 to part-time hourly associates to thank them for their dedication during the Return on Equity 18.8% crisis. The company will also accelerate regularly quarterly bonuses. The company is hiring Net Margin 2.8% Payout Ratio 0.41 Market Data Pricing reflects previous trading week's closing price. Current Ratio 0.79 200-Day Moving Average Target Price: $130.00 52 Week High: $128.08 52 Week Low: $102.00 Closed at $109.58 on 3/27 Revenue $523.96 Billion Price After-Tax Income $14.88 Billion ($) Valuation 120 Current FY P/E 20.87 Prior FY P/E 22.23 100 Price/Sales 0.59 80 Price/Book 4.16 Book Value/Share $26.37 Market Capitalization $310.36 Billion Rating BUY HOLD SELL Forecasted Growth EPS 1 Year EPS Growth Forecast ($) 6.49% 5 Year EPS Growth Forecast 5.00% Quarterly 1.14 1.29 1.10 1.20 1.13 1.27 1.14 1.47 1.17 1.35 1.20 1.54 1.22 1.43 1.26 1.60 1 Year Dividend Growth Forecast Annual 4.72 4.93 5.25 ( Estimate) 5.50 ( Estimate) 1.89% Revenue ($ in Bil.) Risk Beta 0.61 Quarterly 122.7 128.0 124.9 138.8 123.9 130.4 128.0 141.7 127.6 134.5 131.8 145.9 131.5 138.6 135.8 150.3 Institutional Ownership 30.45% Annual 514.4 524.0 539.9 ( Estimate) 556.1 ( Estimate) FY ends Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Jan 31 2019 2020 2021 2022 Please see important information about this report on page 7 ©2020 Argus Research Company Argus Analyst Report NYSE: WMT WALMART STORES INC Report created Mar 30, 2020 Page 2 OF 7 Analyst's Notes...Continued 150,000 temporary associates through the end of May, to help ahead. Walmart better serve customers during this time of 'increased Recent news releases from Walmart headquarters suggest that demand.' Many of these temporary positions will convert to the retail giant is seeing strong sales. The company is racing to hire permanent positions over time. WMT has reached out to the 150,000 associates and reducing hiring times. These roles are restaurant and hotel industries in an effort to help employees who temporary, but many will become permanent. The company says have been furloughed. that candidates can apply online, get hired and begin working in a Our five-year rating remains BUY. Walmart is a survivor in the fulfillment center or distribution center in as little as 24 hours. very tumultuous retail sector. The company's finances are top tier These new hires will initially be paid $15 - $19 per hour. WMT within this sector, the store environment is improving, and will be paying $250 hiring bonuses after 90 days and they are e-commerce capabilities are growing. paying existing associates $250 if they refer someone who stays for RECENT DEVELOPMENTS 90 days. We believe these initiatives reflect management's confidence in the business over the next few months. In this turbulent environment, Argus is recommending that A March 29 article published by Barron's provided data on investors dollar-average into existing long-term positions in the retail traffic. While traffic to malls has plunged, in early March, highest-quality stocks. Investors may also considering initiating traffic at grocery stores and discounters like Walmart and Costco new positions at discounted prices, while being aware of the risks has increased. of future volatility in individual positions. Historically, periods of severe stock-market turbulence have proven to be good times for EARNINGS & GROWTH ANALYSIS careful and disciplined stock selection, with a focus on the We are maintaining our FY21 EPS estimate of $5.25, up 6% highest-quality and financially strongest names. from $4.93 per share in FY20. This estimate could prove to be We have downgraded numerous stocks in recent weeks, conservative in the near term. The company's Executive Vice particularly for companies with weaker balance sheets that could President of Corporate Affairs suggested in a recent CNBC have a long recovery time due to an extended revenue shortfall. But interview, that one reason the company was accelerating the for investors with a longer-term time horizon, we expect stocks to regular bonus to store employees was because of the volume they recover and recommend companies with strong business models are seeing. Mr. Bartlett stated in a call with The Wall Street Journal and balance sheets that will not only survive but thrive in the years during the week of March 16, 'There's just so much demand.' Growth & Valuation Analysis Financial & Risk Analysis GROWTH ANALYSIS ($ in Millions, except per share data) 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 FINANCIAL STRENGTH 2018 2019 2020 Revenue 482,130 485,873 500,343 514,405 523,964 Cash ($ in Millions) 6,756 7,722 9,465 COGS 360,984 361,256 373,396 385,301 394,605 Working Capital ($ in Millions) -18,857 -15,580 -15,984 Gross Profit 121,146 124,617 126,947 129,104 129,359 Current Ratio 0.76 0.80 0.79 SG&A 97,041 101,853 106,510 107,147 108,791 LT Debt/Equity Ratio (%) 47.3 69.2 86.0 R&D ————— Total Debt/Equity Ratio (%) 59.7 80.0 97.0 Operating Income 24,105 22,764 20,437 21,957 20,568 Interest Expense 2,467 2,267 2,178 2,129 2,410 RATIOS (%) Pretax Income 21,638 20,497 15,123 11,460 20,116 Gross Profit Margin 25.4 25.1 24.7 Income Taxes 6,558 6,204 4,600 4,281 4,915 Operating Margin 4.1 4.3 3.9 Tax Rate (%) 30 30 30 37 24 Net Margin 2.0 1.3 2.8 Net Income 14,694 13,643 9,862 6,670 14,881 Return On Assets 4.9 3.1 6.5 Diluted Shares Outstanding 3,217 3,112 3,010 2,945 2,868 Return On Equity 12.7 8.9 20.2 EPS 4.57 4.38 3.28 2.26 5.19 RISK ANALYSIS Dividend 1.96 2.00 2.04 2.08 2.12 Cash Cycle (days) 3.8 1.8 1.9 GROWTH RATES (%) Cash Flow/Cap Ex 2.8 2.7 2.4 Revenue -0.7 0.6 3.0 2.9 1.9 Oper.
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