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Walmart Inc WMT (XNYS) Morningstar Equity Analyst Report | Report as of 15 Apr 2020 01:55, UTC | Page 1 of 14 Walmart Inc WMT (XNYS) Morningstar Rating Last Price Fair Value Estimate Price/Fair Value Trailing Dividend Yield % Forward Dividend Yield % Market Cap (Bil) Industry Stewardship QQ 129.00 USD 108.00 USD 1.19 1.65 1.67 365.36 Discount Stores Standard 15 Apr 2020 14 Apr 2020 15 Apr 2020 14 Apr 2020 14 Apr 2020 14 Apr 2020 01:52, UTC 01:48, UTC Morningstar Pillars Analyst Quantitative Important Disclosure: Economic Moat Wide Wide The conduct of Morningstar’s analysts is governed by Code of Ethics/Code of Conduct Policy, Personal Security Trading Policy (or an equivalent of), Valuation QQ Overvalued and Investment Research Policy. For information regarding conflicts of interest, please visit http://global.morningstar.com/equitydisclosures Uncertainty Medium Medium Financial Health — Strong COVID-19 Should Lift Near-Term Sales, but Digitization Still the Main Source: Morningstar Equity Research Long-Term Story for Walmart Quantitative Valuation WMT Business Strategy and Outlook Walmart’s robust grocery offering will continue to promote USAs Zain Akbari, CFA, Eq. Analyst, 14 April 2020 traffic, feeding its ability to leverage costs and Undervalued Fairly Valued Overvalued With unrivalled scale, prodigious procurement strength, investments in automation and infrastructure. a strong brand, and a growing e-commerce platform, we Current 5-Yr Avg Sector Country Price/Quant Fair Value 1.14 0.98 0.84 0.83 believe Walmart is the only American retailer that can Analyst Note Price/Earnings 24.9 24.7 19.6 20.1 compete comprehensively with Amazon’s retail offering. Zain Akbari, CFA, Eq. Analyst, 18 February 2020 Forward P/E 24.7 — 16.9 13.9 We expect customers will require retailers to offer a menu Our fair value estimate for wide-moat Walmart should Price/Cash Flow 14.6 9.1 12.6 13.1 of fulfillment options for sales made through digital and remain near its current $105 per share, with soft year-end Price/Free Cash Flow 25.4 15.0 21.4 19.5 Trailing Dividend Yield% 1.65 2.43 2.28 2.35 physical channels, advantaging Walmart’s dense store results and fiscal 2021 guidance offset by the time value Source: Morningstar network, deep vendor relationships, and established of money. We still believe that Walmart will transition to brand. Although it should lift fiscal 2021 sales (albeit at an omnichannel powerhouse, with our 10-year forecast Bulls Say a slight margin cost), we do not expect the COVID-19 calling for low-single-digit annual percentage top-line OAs America’s largest retailer, Walmart should be pandemic to materially alter Walmart’s long-term growth and 4% adjusted operating margins, on average. able to capitalize on its store network and digital standing. We suggest prospective investors await a more attractive investments to deliver a compelling omnichannel entry point. retail experience that no other traditional rival can The retail environment is intensely competitive and is match. being disrupted by Amazon’s expanding scope and At 1.9% and 0.8%, Walmart U.S. and Sam’s Club lagged OWalmart boasts purchasing leverage that allows distribution strength, but we expect Walmart to hold our 2.8% and 2.0% respective quarterly comparable it to minimize procurement costs and to keep prices serve. With its scale bringing cost leverage that can be growth targets, and the international unit’s 2.3% net sales low and traffic high. used to keep prices low (drawing traffic and spreading growth also trailed our 3.2% forecast. Diluted GAAP EPS OThe COVID-19 pandemic should lift near-term fixed expenditures over a larger sales base), Walmart of $5.19 for fiscal 2020 met our target, though the $4.93 sales, with Walmart’s historic steadiness in should be able to compete aggressively, particularly for adjusted mark fell short of our $5.02, partly due to recessionary environments suggesting it will be able the roughly 50 million households we estimate do not unrealized investment gains. Management set fiscal 2021 to navigate an uneven recovery. subscribe to Amazon Prime. adjusted diluted EPS guidance at $5.00 to $5.15. While forecast share repurchases account for part of the Bears Say With a large share of many of its vendors’ sales, Walmart’s difference between the range and our prior $5.25 mark, scale allows it to dictate terms, enabling it to hold we anticipate curbing our operational expectations as a OCompetition is fierce throughout retail, and procurement costs down while ensuring its assortment is result of the year-end sales softness, lingering effects of Walmart will have to innovate to keep pace not only optimized for all channels. Its strength translates across unrest in Chile, and the prospect of coronavirus-related with Amazon but also physical retailers that are borders to its non-U.S. operations. While Amazon is the slowdowns in China (the latter of which is not incorporated increasingly investing in omnichannel capabilities. partner of choice for vendors looking to position in guidance). OAmazon has a sizable lead in its marketplace themselves for e-commerce’s explosive growth, Walmart offerings; while Walmart should have room to build remains the most valuable outlet for leading While slow apparel sales (attributed to a surplus of its offering, we believe its platform is well behind. manufacturers in terms of dollar sales, which should seasonal and low-price attire) contributed to the U.S. O Sam’s Club continues to lag well behind Costco in remain a formidable cost advantage. shortfall, we are encouraged management is focusing on sales, profitability, and (we suspect) member boosting general merchandise sales, particularly online. attachment; we expect the gulf to persist. While we believe its days of material store count growth With grocery operating margins tight (estimated in the low have passed, Walmart has redirected capital toward single digits versus Walmart U.S.’ mid-single-digit marks) development of its global omnichannel capabilities and pressured by relentless competition, Walmart’s ability (organically and through acquisitions). We view its efforts to use food to spur more lucrative general merchandise positively and suspect it has built an infrastructure that turnover will be critical to e-commerce profitability and should support digital percentage growth well into the protecting returns. Despite relentless price pressure, we double-digits for years to come. Traditional channel expect adjusted operating margin of about 4.5% in 10 growth should be hard to come by, but we suspect years (from 4.1% in fiscal 2020) as digital profits emerge © Morningstar 2020. All Rights Reserved. Unless otherwise provided in a separate agreement, you may use this report only in the country in which its original distributor is based. The information, data, analyses and opinions presented herein do not constitute investment advice; are provided solely for informational purposes and therefore are not an offer to buy or sell a security; and are not warranted to be correct, complete or accurate. The opinions expressed are as of the date written and are subject to change without notice. Except as otherwise required by law, Morningstar shall ? not be responsible for any trading decisions, damages or other losses resulting from, or related to, the information, data, analyses or opinions or their use. The information contained herein is the proprietary property of Morningstar and may not be reproduced, in whole or in part, or used in any manner, without the prior written consent of Morningstar. Investment research is produced and issued by subsidiaries of Morningstar, Inc. including, but not limited to, Morningstar Research Services LLC, registered with and governed by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. To order reprints, call +1 312-696-6100. To license the research, call +1 312-696-6869. Please see important disclosures at the end of this report. Morningstar Equity Analyst Report |Page 2 of 14 Walmart Inc WMT (XNYS) Morningstar Rating Last Price Fair Value Estimate Price/Fair Value Trailing Dividend Yield % Forward Dividend Yield % Market Cap (Bil) Industry Stewardship QQ 129.00 USD 108.00 USD 1.19 1.65 1.67 365.36 Discount Stores Standard 15 Apr 2020 14 Apr 2020 15 Apr 2020 14 Apr 2020 14 Apr 2020 14 Apr 2020 01:52, UTC 01:48, UTC Close Competitors Currency (Mil) Market Cap TTM Sales Operating Margin TTM/PE allows it to be even more aggressive with pricing, Amazon.com Inc AMZN USD 1,136,661 280,522 5.18 99.01 sidestepping the traffic pressure that other retailers have faced as channels shift. Costco Wholesale Corp COST USD 138,718 158,350 3.10 36.90 Target Corp TGT USD 54,294 78,112 5.96 17.09 We believe Walmart’s grocery efforts (56% of its namesake banner’s U.S. sales in fiscal 2020) complement and costs scale. its general merchandise offerings, driving repeat traffic. As grocery customers regularly visit the store, they are Economic Moat continually exposed to the firm’s higher margin offerings, spurring lucrative general merchandise sales. By providing Zain Akbari, Eq. Analyst, 14 April 2020 We contend that Walmart’s standing as the dominant a single location where shoppers can address multiple traditional retailer (and the number-one grocer) in the needs, we believe Walmart offers a level of convenience United States has allowed it to develop intangible assets that few retailers can match, all behind a store marquee and a durable cost advantage that justify a wide moat that effectively signals low prices to customers across the rating. While the retail sector has been roiled by entire assortment. The U.S. namesake stores consistently digitization and under constant pressure as Amazon builds posted low-single-digit traffic/transactions growth from scale, we believe Walmart is uniquely positioned to fiscal 2016 to 2020, despite the rest of retail’s woes.
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