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TABLE OF CONTENTS Editor's Note Kerstin VIGNARD ............................................................................................................. 1 Special Comment Colonel Chris A. HADFIELD .............................................................................................. 3 Making Space for Security? ‘Peaceful uses’ of outer space has permitted its militarization— does it also mean its weaponization? Johannes M. WOLFF......................................................................................................... 5 Monsters and shadows: left unchecked, American fears regarding threats to space assets will drive weaponization Theresa HITCHENS ........................................................................................................... 15 The world’s space systems Laurence NARDON .......................................................................................................... 33 Is a space weapons ban feasible? Thoughts on technology and verification of arms control in space Regina HAGEN and Jürgen SCHEFFRAN............................................................................ 41 Security without weapons in space: challenges and options Rebecca JOHNSON .......................................................................................................... 53 Resources on Outer Space Security compiled by Jon PARIS, with assistance of Melissa MOTT and Rachel WILLIAMS ............ 67 UNIDIR Focus ........................................................................................................................ 75 iii EDITOR'S NOTE The space age has been an era filled with hope, contradiction, competition and promise. In a short period of time the world has become dependent on the space medium for a multitude of civilian and military applications, from meteorology to intelligence gathering. The potential dual-use nature of many space objects and technologies lies at the heart of the debate concerning the peaceful uses of outer space. Many nations are resistant to the idea of weaponizing outer space. Nearly each year the General Assembly adopts two space-related resolutions, concerning the peaceful uses of outer space and the prevention of an arms race in outer space (PAROS). PAROS is also a decisive issue in the Conference on Disarmament, where many members have called for negotiations to prohibit the weaponization of space. Despite the broad international support for preserving outer space for peaceful uses, little seems to slow the drive towards weaponization—a drive predominantly fuelled by evolutionary defence programmes that might cross the space weaponization threshold. In the face of one nation’s declared objective of ‘the ability to dominate space’, the international community needs to weigh whether to protect the civilian benefits shared by all or acquiesce to the military benefits of a few. The continuing militarization and moves towards the eventual weaponization of space—whether because it is ‘inevitable’, necessary to protect vulnerable assets, or to control and dominate the ‘high frontier’—must be addressed through new thinking and awareness. Threats, real or imagined, from missiles to space debris, need to be discussed and assessed. In this issue of Disarmament Forum, experts examine key aspects of the militarization and weaponization debate. We look at the history of the subject, outline national positions and assets, evaluate threats, explore possibilities for arms control verification in space, and put forward options for how to address many nations’ increasing discomfort with the idea of space being the ‘fourth medium of warfare—along with land, sea and air’, as described by United States Space Command’s Vision for 2020. The next issue of Disarmament Forum will focus on the topic of nuclear terrorism, examining the actual threat posed by terrorists and the contributions that arms control could make to anti-terrorism initiatives. UNIDIR (through the work of the Geneva Forum), the Small Arms Survey and the International Action Network on Small Arms (IANSA) are creating a database to record actions taken to implement the Programme of Action agreed at the July 2001 United Nations Conference on the Illicit Trade in Small Arms and Light Weapons in All Its Aspects. The database will offer an easy to interpret yardstick to evaluate progress towards national, regional and global commitments—a useful tool as governments prepare for the July 2003 Biennial Meeting that will review the implementation of the Programme of Action. The database will be accessible via the IANSA website <http://www.iansa.org/>. one • 2003 MAKING SPACE FOR SECURITY? In its continuing dialogue on fissile materials, UNIDIR, in cooperation with the governments of Japan and Australia, will hold a meeting entitled ‘Promoting Verification in Multilateral Arms Control Treaties’ on 28 March 2003. This meeting will focus on extracting lessons from existing multilateral disarmament regimes and will discuss whether and how these lessons can be applied to the creation of new verification regimes, such as a fissile materials agreement. Have you signed up for UNIDIR Highlights? As a subscriber, you will be notified when the latest issue of Disarmament Forum is online, as well as about new UNIDIR publications and future events. Sign up at <http://www.unidir.org/html/en/highlights.html>. Kerstin Vignard 2 SPECIAL COMMENT Reclining in the summer’s evening light, comfortable in our mismatched beach chairs, my friends and I lean back to watch the darkening sky. Venus sits bright near the horizon, and overhead Sirius, the brightest of all stars, begins to push its sparkle through the fading sunlight. We talk quietly, clutching our beers and glasses of wine, and wait. Suddenly, someone cries out. ‘There, above the oak tree, headed north!’. We all strain our eyes, trying to spot the small speck of light hurtling across the sky. Voices ring out as we each see the satellite, and heads swivel to try and be the first to see another. Bets are made, successes tallied, and laughter rings out into the night. For millennia, others before us have watched the night sky, staring with wonder at the endless ocean of stars. Imaginations have soared up into the universe, seeing great constellations, learning the patterns, finding meaning in the randomness. Understanding the sky led to development of a calendar, to Stonehenge, to the Pyramids, and eventually to the stunning realization that we are not the centre of it all. In the past forty-five years we have not only stared and wondered, but have actually begun to travel into that night sky. The small points of light speeding overhead are human creations, satellites of Earth, fledgling probes into the endless unknown. Some have travelled further, exploring the other planets, even venturing beyond Pluto. These robotic extensions of our own senses have allowed us to start to directly experience and understand the rest of the universe. Yet our probing of the sky has by no means been purely scientific and peaceful. Countless satellites have been launched for military surveillance, and the world’s first Space Station was armed with a space-to-space gun. Efforts and treaties have been made to minimize the weaponization of space, but any success thus far has mostly been due to the very inaccessibility of getting to orbit. The cost and complexity of leaving Earth has limited access to the very few, and thus has kept the more base applications at bay. In the near future, however, we will invent cheaper ways to launch. While this will allow widespread opportunity for peaceful exploitation and profit, it will also open space to many more nations of the world, regardless of stability and intent. The onus will then be even greater on peaceful nations and international organizations to press for responsible stewardship of what John Magee called ‘the high untrespassed sanctity of space’. We will not be completely successful. Humanity has never been peacefully united on the ground, and there is no reason to think we will behave differently just because we are higher up. But the current advantages of worldwide communication, high-speed travel and the fallen Iron Curtain combine to give us a historic opportunity. one • 2003 MAKING SPACE FOR SECURITY? There is more cooperation in space exploration than ever before. Satellite customers can choose from launchers all over the world. The huge Atlas V rocket recently launched from Florida used a Russian-made main engine. The Space Shuttle and Soyuz regularly carry multinational crews, and high overhead the International Space Station shines as a beacon of hope, built by sixteen of the world’s leading nations, crewed by citizens of Earth. There is much romanticism about outer space. The generation of children that saw Sputnik and Apollo have since grown up, carrying with them the youthful optimism and hopes of the era, and I am one of them. We desire a universe better than the world we have developed. Yet I am also a Colonel in the Air Force, and clearly see the benefits of taking advantage of the high ground. As I sit in my lawn chair and look at the sky, however, I am optimistic. Just twenty months ago I was in space, doing a spacewalk outside the Space Station. There was a quiet moment during the assembly work when I gently eased away from the side of the Station, floating free, barely holding on to a flimsy fabric strap. On my right I stared at the vast, ever-unrolling beauty of Mother Earth, while on my left the darkness and promise