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Space Security 2004 V2 Space Security 2004 Space “I know of no similar yearly baseline of what is happening in space. The Index is a valuable tool for informing much-needed global discussions of how best to achieve space security.” Professor John M. Logsdon Director, Space Policy Institute, Elliott School of International Affair, George Washington University “Space Security 2004 is a salutary reminder of how dependent the world has become on space- based systems for both commercial and military use. The overcrowding of both orbits and frequencies needs international co-operation, but the book highlights some worrying security trends. We cannot leave control of space to any one nation, and international policy makers need to read this excellent survey to understand the dangers.” Air Marshal Lord Garden UK Liberal Democrat Defence Spokesman & Former UK Assistant Chief of the Defence Staff Space Security “Satellites are critical for national security. Space Security 2004 is a comprehensive analysis of the activities of space powers and how they are perceived to affect the security of these important assets and their environment. While all may not agree with these perceptions it is 2004 essential that space professionals and political leaders understand them. This is an important contribution towards that goal.” Brigadier General Simon P. Worden, United States Air Force (Ret.) Research Professor of Astronomy, Planetary Sciences and Optical Sciences, University of Arizona “In a single source, this publication provides a comprehensive view of the latest developments in space, and the trends that are influencing space security policies. As an annual exercise, the review is likely to play a key role in the emerging and increasingly important debate on space security. It is a balanced account which should aid decision making and enlighten discussion by politicians, militaries, diplomats and journalists on important Security.org Space issues such as managing the space debris hazard or decisions on the deployment of space-based weapons.” Mr. Philip E. Coyle Senior Advisor, Center for Defense Information, Former Assistant Secretary of Defense and Director, Operational Test and Evaluation, US Department of Defense Space Security.org Space Security 2004 Simon Collard-Wexler Jessy Cowan-Sharp Sarah Estabrooks Amb. Thomas Graham Jr. Dr. Robert Lawson Dr. William Marshall Space Security.org Space Security.org Published in Waterloo, ON ISBN 0-920231-35-7 Design and layout by the York Centre for International and Security Studies (YCISS) and In House Printing Services Printed in Toronto by Northview Press Ltd. Table of Contents Acronyms I Introduction V Executive Summary VII Chapter 1: The Space Environment 1 Chapter 2: Space Security Laws, Policies, and Doctrines 21 Chapter 3: Civil Space Programs and Global Utilities 41 Chapter 4: Commercial Space 63 Chapter 5: Space Support for Terrestrial Military Operations 81 Chapter 6: Space Systems Protection 101 Chapter 7: Space Systems Negation 121 Chapter 8: Space-Based Strike Weapons 137 Endnotes 149 Annex A: Methodology 185 Annex B: Expert Participation 187 Acronyms Acronyms ABM Anti-Ballistic Missile ASAT Anti-Satellite Weapon ASLV Augmented Satellite Launch Vehicle AWS Advanced Wideband System BMD Ballistic Missile Defense CBM Confidence Building Measures CD Conference on Disarmament CNES Centre National d’Études Spatiales CONUS Continental United States COPUOS United Nations Committee on the Peaceful Uses of Outer Space COSPAR-SARSAT Committee On Space Research – Search and Rescue Satellite- Aided Tracking CSA Canadian Space Agency CSRS Counter Surveillance Reconnaissance System DARPA Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency DBS Direct Broadcasting by Satellite DOD United States Department of Defense DSCS Defense Satellite Communications System DSP Defense Support Program EELV Evolved Expendable Launch Vehicle EHF Extremely High Frequency EKV Exoatmospheric Kill Vehicle ESA European Space Agency EU European Union FALCON Force Application and Launch from the Continental United States FCC United States Federal Communications Commission FMCT Fissile Material Cut-off Treaty FOBS Fractional Orbital Bombardment System GEO Geostationary Orbit GEOSS Global Earth Observation System of Systems GLONASS Global Navigation Satellite System GMES Global Monitoring for Environment and Security GPS Global Positioning System HAND High Altitude Nuclear Detonation HEO Highly Elliptical Orbit IADC Inter-Agency Debris Coordinating Committee ICBM Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles ILS International Launch Services INMARSAT International Maritime Satellite Organization INTELSAT International Telecommunications Satellite Consortium ISO International Organization for Standardization I Space Security 2004 ISRO Indian Space Research Organization ISS International Space Station ITAR International Traffic in Arms Regulation ITU International Telecommunication Union LEO Low Earth Orbit MDA Missile Defense Agency MEO Medium Earth Orbit MIRACL Mid Infrared Advanced Chemical Laser MKV Miniature Kill Vehicle MOST Microvariability and Oscillations of Stars MPX Micro-satellite Propulsion Experiment MTCR Missile Technology Control Regime NASA National Aeronautics and Space Administration NFIRE Near-Field Infrared Experiment NMD National Missile Defense NOAA National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration NORAD North American Aerospace Defense command NSTAC National Security Telecommunications Advisory Committee ORS Operationally Responsive Spacelift OST Outer Space Treaty PAROS Prevention of an Arms Race in Outer Space PEIS Programmatic Environmental Impact Statement PSN Indonesia Pasifik Satellite Nusantara QZSS Quazi-Zenith Satellite System RAIDRS Rapid Attack Identification Detections Reporting System RAMOS Russian-American Observation Satellite Program RFTWARS Radio Frequency, Threat Warning, and Attack Reporting SAINT Satellite Interceptor SALT Strategic Arms Limitations Talks SAR Search And Rescue SBI Space-Based Interceptors SBIRS Space-Based Infrared System SBL Space-Based Laser SBSS Space-Based Surveillance System SBSW Space-Based Strike Weapon SDI Strategic Defense Initiative SHF Super High Frequency SMV Space Maneuver Vehicle SSN Space Surveillance Network SSS Space Surveillance System STSS Space Tracking and Surveillance System SUPARCO Space and Upper Atmospheric Research Commission TSat Transformational Satellite Communications system II Acronyms UHF Ultra High Frequency UN United Nations UNGA United Nations General Assembly US Unites States of America USAF United States Air Force USML United States Munitions List USSR Union of Soviet Socialist Republics XSS Experimental Spacecraft System III Space Security 2004 IV Introduction Introduction History may well judge 2004 to have been a watershed year for space security. It marked the first privately funded launch of a person into space to win the “X Prize.” Commercial space revenues exceeded $100 billion for the first time in 2004. The US articulated a bold new vision for human space flight back to the Moon and on to Mars. China completed more space launches than any previous year. The resolution of the EU/US dispute over Galileo/Global Positioning System frequency allocation in 2004 opened the way for further development of an unprecedented global utility that has become essential to millions of civil, commercial, and military space actors and applications. In a few years, the US will have as much invested in space as it does in Europe. Under the Outer Space Treaty, space is open to everyone and belonging to no one. Space is also a global commons that borders every community on Earth and secure access to and use of space has been critical to its development as a new center of strategic social, economic, and military power. Space has also become a critical part of our national and international infrastructure; it supports our medical systems, our public services, our communications systems, our financial institutions, and our militaries. Indeed, today it is difficult to imagine our societies and economies functioning without the support of space-based assets. However, the dynamics of space security remain poorly understood. Space is uniquely fragile as an environment and the resources of Earth’s orbital space are limited. It is not clear how we can best balance today’s competing civil, commercial, and military interests against the need for sustainable uses of space that will ensure its utility for future generations. Building upon research first developed for a 2003 pilot project, Space Security 2004 provides the first comprehensive set of assessments of the longer term trends and annual developments that shape the dynamics of space security, defined as secure and sustainable access to and use of space, and freedom from space-based threats.We hope that this annual Space Security series will become the basic public source for legislators, researchers, officials, and commentators when they discuss space security. Space Security 2004 is based wholly on open source material which does impose some unavoidable limitations. For example, our analysis is inevitably more focused on those states and other actors that publish more about their space activities. We have tried to be as objective as possible, both in presenting the facts contained in this volume and in providing assessments of trends and developments. In the interest of transparency, details on the methodology used for this study can be found in Annex A. However, assessments of the impact of these trends and developments upon space security
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