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Business Case Analysis of the Towed Glider Air Launched System (TGALS)

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Business Case Analysis of the Towed Glider Air Launched System (TGALS) Business Case Analysis of the Towed Glider Air Launched System (TGALS) Darryl. W. Webb1, Mclinton B. Nguyen,2 Robert W. Seibold,3 and Frank C. Wong4 The Aerospace Corporation, El Segundo, CA 90245-4609 and Gerald D. (Jerry) Budd5 National Aeronautics and Space Administration, Armstrong Flight Research Center, Edwards, CA 93523-0273 The Aerospace Corporation developed an integrated Business Case Analysis (BCA) model on behalf of the NASA Armstrong Flight Research Center (AFRC). This model evaluated the potential profitability of the Towed Glider Air Launched System (TGALS) concept, under development at AFRC, identifying potential technical, programmatic, and business decisions that could improve its business viability. The model addressed system performance metrics; development, production and operation cost estimates; market size and product/service positioning; pricing alternatives; and market share. Projected annual expenses were subtracted from projected annual revenues to calculate cash flow, return on investment (ROI), and net present value (NPV). This comprehensive model included parametric cost predictions for this system’s development, production and operation, as well as adjustments for organizational complexity associated with integrating TGALS flight and ground components. 1 Senior Project Leader, Economic Market and Analysis Center, 2310 E. El Segundo Blvd., MS M4/034. 2 Engineering Specialist, Economic Market and Analysis Center, 2310 E. El Segundo Blvd., MS M4/034. 3 Senior Project Leader, Civil & Commercial Launch Projects, 2310 E. El Segundo Blvd, MS M1/132, AIAA Associate Fellow. 4 Director, Economic Market and Analysis Center, 2310 E. El Segundo Blvd., MS M4/034. 5 Air Launch Development Project Manager, Advanced Planning and Partnerships Office, P.O. Box 273, MS 2701. 1 American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics Nomenclature A-SOA = Advanced State-of-the-Art AFRC = Armstrong Flight Research Center BCA = Business Case Analysis CAD/CAM/CAE = Computer Aided Design, Manufacturing, and Engineering ICAM = Industrial Capability Assessment Model IM&P = Improvements in Methods and Processes IRR = Internal Rate of Return LEO = Low Earth Orbit LV = Launch Vehicle NASA = National Aeronautics and Space Administration NPV = Net Present Value PBP = Payback Period PIR = Performance Improvement Rate ROI = Return on Investment SME = Subject Matter Expert SOA = State-of-the-Art TGALS = Towed Glider Air Launched System TRL = Technology Readiness Level WBS = Work Breakdown Structure I. Introduction T he integrated TGALS Business Case Analysis (BCA) model identifies technical, programmatic and business factors that influence the commercial feasibility of the TGALS concept. The model includes parametric cost estimates for developing, integrating, testing, and producing key flight system and ground system components and associated equipment, as well as operational and maintenance costs of these components over the system’s life. Cost projections were developed for different launch rates and maximum payload sizes (up to 600 kg). These estimates include both demonstration and operational vehicles. Business feasibility is assessed in terms of cash flows, Return on Investment (ROI), payback period, and Net Present Value (NPV), using both a traditional acquisition scheme as well as a funding mechanism proposed by NASA-AFRC. To improve objectivity, program independent historical data and analyses were used whenever possible to benchmark calculated financial metrics and program estimated values and to provide sensitivity analysis for the differences identified. II. Analytic Framework A. TGALS System Components The TGALS system includes a modified tow aircraft, glider, glider rocket motor, launch vehicle (LV), and ground infrastructure. The glider with under-carried LV is shown in Figure 1. This concept has many advantages: High Performance . Lifting of significantly larger geometric payloads to altitude vs. modifying a same-size business jet or commercial transport aircraft to carry the launch vehicle externally . Ability to release the LV at an elevated flight path angle and high altitude coincident with the optimal trajectory for the LV . Up to 70% increase in payload weight to orbit (vs. ground launch), 30% increase due to releasing the LV at an elevated flight path angle by the glider performing a “pull-up” maneuver prior to LV release (Figure 2). Agility . Low overhead flight operations allows for rapid turn-around to launch satellites quickly . No dependence on critical ground-based launch facilities/assets Safety & Mission Assurance . Unmanned glider eliminates human safety concerns for carrying LV . Restartable sustainer motor extends glide home distance following launch or abort . Glider capable of landing with LV attached in event of mission abort 2 American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics Flexibility . Glider plug-and-play center wing allows multiple simultaneous LV build-ups . Inexpensive gliders can be staged at nearly any airfield, increasing launch opportunities . Tow plane can be a slightly modified existing aircraft that simply adds towed launch to duties . Glider concept is scalable from very small to larger LVs Figure 1. TGALS Glider and Launch Vehicle Figure 2. Pull-up Maneuver B. BCA Architecture An overview of the Aerospace Corporation developed solution for the TGALS BCA is shown in Figure 3. The solution consists of linking several models into a decision framework. Subject Matter Expert (SME) inputs were used 3 American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics to customize Aerospace’s Industrial Capability Assessment Model (ICAM), which is a technology-based cost model (upper left of Figure 3). Tourist Market Capture Rate 100 Tow Aircraft Glider Liquid Rocket Launch Vehicle Aircraft Avionics & Launches of 1-50 kg Satellite 90 Forecast Tow Cable Tow Retract Airframe Avionics SW Motor Fuel Tanks Fuel Sys 1st Stg 2nd Stg 3rd Stg 4th Stg Fairing Stg Str Stage Cabling Avionics Design Cycle Experience (5) Mods Power High = 80% M Mode (0=str,1=el) 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 1.000 2.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.500 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 1.000 10000 Reliability & Safety (4) MS Market Segment 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 by 2024 100 y = 7E-233e0.2676x 80 Low = 80% IM&P - General (1) Performance (7) AL Assembly level 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 PPD Prime profit Dev 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% R² = 0.8498 11-50 kg typically by 2032 Cost of Technology (8) PPP Prime Profit Prod 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 90 CAD,CAM,CAE,IDS (2) Buy Buy % 100% 100% 100% 80% 80% 35% 100% 100% 100% 80% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 80% manifested 2 per launch YrDH Econ Yr $ 2016 2016 2016 2016 2016 2016 2016 2016 2016 2016 2016 2016 2016 2016 2016 2016 2016 2016 y = 36440ln(x) - 277055 70 Physical Characteristics (3) Criticality of Failure (6) R² = 0.7651 80 IMP IM&P Yr 1997 2005 2000 1990 2005 2016 2000 2016 2016 2010 2016 2016 2016 2016 2016 2016 2010 2010 1000 Pyr Perf Tech Yr 1997 2005 2000 1990 2005 2016 2000 2016 2016 2010 2016 2016 2016 2016 2016 2016 2010 2010 CAD CAD CAM Yr 1997 2005 2000 1990 2005 2016 2000 2016 2016 2010 2016 2016 2016 2016 2016 2016 2010 2010 60 70 EPCE Eng,PM Cycle Exp yr 2016 2016 2016 2016 2016 2016 2016 2016 2016 2016 2016 2016 2016 2016 2016 2016 2016 2016 Program QNA Qty NHA 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 DP Protos 1.00 3.00 3.00 2.00 2.00 1.00 1.00 2.00 2.00 2.00 8.00 8.00 8.00 8.00 8.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 Market Start 60 PBQ Planned Build Qty 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 Capture PQ Prior Qty 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 50 100 BQ Prod Build Qty 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 Rate 50 AR Annual Rate 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 HR HR HR NHR NHR NHR NHR NHR NHR NHR NHR NHR NHR NHR NHR NHR NHR NHR % ECF ECF Air - Air - Supersonic - Supersonic - Supersonic - Supersonic - Design Air - Commercial Air - Commercial Air - Commercial Air - Commercial Non-HR, SL Non-HR, SL Non-HR, SL Non-HR, SL Non-HR, SL Non-HR, SL Non-HR, SL Non-HR, SL 40 Commercial Commercial Commercial Commercial Commercial Commercial 1-10 kg typically High = 30% 40 IOC Produceability (9) Satellites Launched S Size (kg) or SLOC 400 600 300 3,000 200 0 9 56 26 17 6,229 2,008 689 146 1,850 925 8 50 manifested 5 per launch Des Design Complexity 0.59 0.12 0.55 1.29 0.82 0.55 0.20 0.50 1.00 1.00 0.41 0.41 0.41 0.41 0.35 0.35 0.35 0.35 by 2020 Expenditures $ . $ Expenditures 30 ND New Design 20% 31% 31% 100% 0% 100% 6% 100% 100% 75% 31% 31% 31% 31% 31% 31% 31% 8% 30 R Redund % 0% 17% 17% 0% 0% 0% 0% 25% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 17% 17% 10 Acceleration Costs 0.1464x INT Integration (internal) 1.0 3.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 5.0 4.0 4.0 5.0 5.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 11.0 11.0 y = 1E-127e Produceability Epsilon-1 (cplx) 0.047 0.001 0.002 0.008 0.019 0.273 0.089 0.003 0.003 0.009 0.006 0.006 0.009 0.019 0.001 0.001 0.004 0.014 R² = 0.5864 20 Produceability End PIR % = 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 5.3% 10.1% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 2.9% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 5.3% 20 Normal Funding CIC % 87% 87% 87% 87% 87% 87% 93% 93% 93% 93% 92% 92% 92% 92% 92% 92% 92% 92% y = 4280.6ln(x) - 32542 10 Cum mults 1.365 1.445 1.395 1.210 2.145 1.106 1.395 1.562 1.562 1.568 1.562 1.562 1.562 1.562 1.562 1.562 1.497 1.760 R² = 0.667 T-1 4.801 0.130 0.134 3.232 1.826 0.000 0.609 0.089 0.048 0.110 4.891 2.196 1.569 1.072 0.312 0.133 0.028 0.405 Low = 6% NRCC NonRec Cost Calib 0.50 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
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