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Final Report Summary Sri Lanka Ceylon Electricity Board Development Planning on Optimal Power Generation for Peak Demand in Sri Lanka Final Report Summary February 2015 Japan International Cooperation Agency Electric Power Development Co., Ltd. IL JR 15-022 Development Planning on Optimal Power Generation for Peak Demand in Sri Lanka Final Report Summary TABLE OF CONTENTS Chapter 1 Introduction 1.1 Background of the Project ................................................................................................ 1-1 1.2 Purpose and Scope of Study ............................................................................................. 1-2 1.3 Study Plan ......................................................................................................................... 1-3 1.3.1 Study Procedure ................................................................................................... 1-3 1.3.2 Study Schedule and Study Items ......................................................................... 1-4 Chapter 2 Sri Lanka Power Sector Performance and Development Policy 2.1 Power Sector in Sri Lanka ................................................................................................ 2-1 2.1.1 Power Supply Performance ................................................................................. 2-1 2.1.2 Government Power Sector Policy ........................................................................ 2-2 2.1.3 Organizations for Electricity Supply ................................................................... 2-3 2.1.4 Foreign Assistance to Power Sector .................................................................... 2-4 2.2 Electricity Tariffs and CEB’s Financial Performance ....................................................... 2-5 2.2.1 Electricity Tariffs ................................................................................................. 2-5 2.2.2 CEB’s Financial Performance .............................................................................. 2-7 Chapter 3 Electric Power Demand Forecast 3.1 Current Situation .............................................................................................................. 3-1 3.1.1 Actual Record of Electric Power Demand ........................................................... 3-1 3.1.2 Electrification Rate .............................................................................................. 3-1 3.1.3 Electricity Consumption by Customer ................................................................. 3-2 3.1.4 Transmission and Distribution Loss .................................................................... 3-2 3.1.5 Load Factor of the Power System ........................................................................ 3-3 3.1.6 Daily Load Profile ............................................................................................... 3-3 3.2 Electric Power Demand and Economic Conditions.......................................................... 3-5 3.2.1 Relationship of GDP and Electricity Demand ..................................................... 3-5 3.3 Demand Forecast .............................................................................................................. 3-6 3.3.1 Electric Power Demand Forecast ......................................................................... 3-6 3.3.2 Power Demand Forecast Method ......................................................................... 3-7 3.3.3 Electric Power Demand Forecast ......................................................................... 3-8 Chapter 4 Power Development Plan 4.1 Long Term Generation Expansion Plan of CEB ............................................................... 4-1 4.2 Necessity of Power Generation for Peak Power Demand ................................................ 4-2 4.3 Constitution of Power Generation in 2025 ....................................................................... 4-4 4.4 Necessary Development Scale of Power Source for Peak Power Demand ...................... 4-5 4.5 Commissioning Timing of Power Source for Peak Power Demand ................................. 4-6 Chapter 5 Long Term Transmission Development Plan and Power System Operation 5.1 Status of Power System Operation ................................................................................... 5-1 Electric Power Development Co., Ltd. i Development Planning on Optimal Power Generation for Peak Demand in Sri Lanka Final Report Summary 5.1.1 Criteria of Power System Operation .................................................................... 5-1 5.1.2 Status of Power System Operation ...................................................................... 5-2 5.2 Status of Long Term Transmission Development Plan .................................................... 5-3 5.2.1 Power Supply Measures for Metropolitan Area .................................................. 5-3 5.2.2 Long Term Transmission Development Plan to LTGEP ...................................... 5-4 Chapter 6 Environmental and Social Considerations 6.1 General Information on Environmental and Social Conditions in Sri Lanka ................... 6-1 6.1.1 Physical Features ................................................................................................. 6-1 6.1.2 Ecosystems in Sri Lanka ...................................................................................... 6-1 6.1.3 Current Status of Species ..................................................................................... 6-2 6.1.4 Conservation Status of Biodiversity in Sri Lanka ............................................... 6-4 6.1.5 Social Environment ............................................................................................. 6-6 6.2 Profile of Environmental and Social Consideration in Sri Lanka .................................... 6-9 6.2.1 Legal System Relating to Environmental and Social Consideration ................... 6-9 6.2.2 Differences between the JICA Guidelines and the Sri Lankan legislations ......... 6-16 6.3 Strategic Environmental Assessment ................................................................................ 6-19 6.3.1 Strategic Environmental Assessment and the Study ............................................ 6-19 6.3.2 SEA at Selecting Power Generation Options ....................................................... 6-20 6.3.3 SEA at Selecting Candidate Sites ........................................................................ 6-20 6.3.4 Stakeholders Meetings ......................................................................................... 6-20 Chapter 7 Stakeholders Meetings 7.1 1st Stakeholders Meeting ................................................................................................. 7-1 7.1.1 Objectives and Stakeholders ................................................................................ 7-1 7.1.2 Reconnaissance Site Visits................................................................................... 7-2 7.1.3 Contents of the 1st SHM....................................................................................... 7-2 7.2 2nd Stakeholders Meeting ................................................................................................ 7-3 7.2.1 Objectives and Stakeholders ................................................................................ 7-3 7.2.2 Reconnaissance Site Visits................................................................................... 7-4 7.2.3 Contents of the 2nd SHM ...................................................................................... 7-4 7.3 3rd Stakeholders Meeting .................................................................................................. 7-5 7.3.1 Objectives and Stakeholders ................................................................................ 7-5 7.3.2 Contents of the 3rd SHM ...................................................................................... 7-6 Chapter 8 Selection of Power Generation Options for Peak Power Demand 8.1 Introduction ...................................................................................................................... 8-1 8.2 Selection of Options (First Screening) ............................................................................. 8-1 8.2.1 Power Generation Options ................................................................................... 8-1 8.2.2 Other Options other than Power Generation ........................................................ 8-5 8.2.3 Result of First Screening ..................................................................................... 8-6 8.3 Optimal Options (Second Screening) ............................................................................... 8-6 Electric Power Development Co., Ltd. ii Development Planning on Optimal Power Generation for Peak Demand in Sri Lanka Final Report Summary 8.3.1 Load Following Capability and Generation Characteristics ................................ 8-7 8.3.2 Environmental and Social Considerations ........................................................... 8-8 8.3.3 Economic Aspect of Options ............................................................................... 8-13 8.3.4 Selection of Optimal Option for Peak Power Demand ........................................ 8-15 8.4 Proportion of Pumped Storage Power Plant ..................................................................... 8-16 8.5 Combination Development
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