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Appendix 3 Details of Baseline Information Salford Revised Draft Local Plan Sustainability Appraisal Appendix 3 Details of Baseline Information APPENDIX 3 Details of Baseline Information Contents 1. Introduction ........................................................................................................ 2 2 Social .................................................................................................................. 5 2A Population .............................................................................................................. 5 2B Health ..................................................................................................................... 9 2C Crime ................................................................................................................... 11 2E Housing ................................................................................................................ 14 2G Education ............................................................................................................. 20 3. Economic .......................................................................................................... 24 3A Economic health ................................................................................................... 24 3B Structure of the economy ..................................................................................... 27 3C Prosperity ............................................................................................................. 31 4. Environmental .................................................................................................. 33 4A Recreation ............................................................................................................ 33 4B Biodiversity ........................................................................................................... 34 4C Soil and land ........................................................................................................ 35 4D Water ................................................................................................................... 39 4E Air Quality and climatic factors ............................................................................. 41 4F Waste ................................................................................................................... 43 4G Minerals ............................................................................................................... 44 4H Landscapes .......................................................................................................... 44 4I Heritage ............................................................................................................... 45 Appendix 3 - Page 1 Salford Revised Draft Local Plan Sustainability Appraisal Appendix 3 Details of Baseline Information 1. Introduction 1.1 This appendix provides details of the baseline information that has informed the sustainability appraisal, and includes a summary of the data collected, comparator data sets, commentary and an indication of how the issue may evolve without intervention. 1.2 Data availability at the local level means that the various data sets can be presented by either old (pre 2003) or new (2003 onwards) ward boundaries. The two plans below show both the old and new ward boundaries for reference. Appendix 3 - Page 2 Salford Revised Draft Local Plan Sustainability Appraisal Appendix 3 Details of Baseline Information Appendix 3 - Page 3 Salford Revised Draft Local Plan Sustainability Appraisal Appendix 3 Details of Baseline Information Appendix 3 - Page 4 Salford Revised Draft Local Plan Sustainability Appraisal Appendix 3 Details of Baseline Information 2 Social 2A Population 2.1 There has been a very significant loss of population from the city over the last century, falling some 36% from the peak in 1921 to 2001. The population largely stabilised between 2001 and 2004, following which there has been continuing growth. Prospects look good for ongoing population increases with the Greater Manchester forecasting model suggesting that the population could reach 282,349 by 2036. 2.2 Migration data shows that the principal driver of this later population growth has been down to migration into the city from outside of the UK, providing a net increase of 21,946 people over the period 2002 and 2016. Over this same period Salford saw a net loss of 1,896 people to other parts of the UK. 2.3 Salford’s population is made up of a relatively high proportion of people aged 20 – 29, 17.3% compared with only 13.6% of the North West population and 13.7% of that of England. Lower proportions than the North West and England averages are seen at all ages over 45. 2.4 Population projections suggest that, like the rest of the country, Salford is likely to see an increase in the proportion of ‘older people’ and a decrease in the proportion of ‘working age’ population. Whilst these changes are relatively small compared with those seen at higher geographic levels, the city will still need to plan for the increasing number of older people residing in the city. 2.5 In terms of the household composition, census data from 2011 indicates that the city has relatively large proportions of one person (36.14% compared with 32.2% for the North West and 30.3% for England) and single-parent households (13.5% compared with 12.0% for the North West and 10.6% for England). The 2012 DCLG household projections suggest that the proportion of one person households is likely to remain relatively static and projects that 35.9% of all households in Salford and 31.1% of all households in England will be one person households in 2037. 2.6 The proportion of minority ethnic population within Salford (15.6%) is higher than the North West (12.9%) average. The proportion is however significantly below that for England (20.1%). Particular concentrations of minority ethnic population are found in Eccles, Broughton, Irwell Riverside, Langworthy, Kersal, Ordsall and Weaste. 2.7 The Local Plan should take account of the above trends, catering for an increasing population and addressing the needs of a changing population, in terms of age, structure, ethnic diversity and household size. Total population change Appendix 3 - Page 5 Salford Revised Draft Local Plan Sustainability Appraisal Appendix 3 Details of Baseline Information ONS Mid Year Population Total Annual Estimate persons Change 1921 341,267 - 2001 216,978 - 2002 216,310 -668 2003 217,312 1,002 2004 217,921 609 2005 219,536 1,615 2006 221,931 2,395 2007 223,468 1,537 2008 226,782 3,314 2009 228,948 2,166 2010 231,837 2,889 2011 234,487 2,650 2012 236,946 2,459 2013 238,674 1,728 2014 241,539 2,865 2015 245,614 4,075 2016 248,726 3,112 2026 269,670 2,274 2031 276,694 7,024 2035 282,349 5,655 Source: Total persons 2001 – 2016 ONS Mid year estimates and GMFM Base Forecast 2017 Proportion of total population by age – 2011 Age Under 15 15 - 19 20 - 29 30 - 44 45 - 59 60 - 74 75+ band Salford 18.1% 6.5% 17.3% 20.9% 17.8% 12.8% 6.7% GM 18.6% 6.6% 15.1% 20.9% 18.7% 13.5% 6.7% NW 17.5% 6.5% 13.6% 19.8% 19.8% 15.1% 7.7% England 17.7% 6.3% 13.7% 20.6% 19.4% 14.6% 7.7% Source: Census 2011 Population projections by age 2014 and 2037 Proportion of Population (%) Age Band Salford GM NW England 2014 0-14 18.6% 18.9% 17.7% 17.8% 15-64 66.9% 65.5% 64.4% 64.6% 65 and over 14.6% 15.5% 18.0% 17.6% 0-14 17.7% 17.8% 16.8% 16.8% 2039 15-64 64.3% 61.2% 58.5% 59.2% 65 and over 18.0% 21.0% 24.7% 24.0% Source: 2014 based sub national population projections Year Population Internal UK International Natural Change Other Change Migration (Net) Migration (Net) Births Deaths 2002-03 1,002 -406 1,536 2,587 -2,652 -63 2003-04 609 -66 859 2,687 -2,659 -212 Appendix 3 - Page 6 Salford Revised Draft Local Plan Sustainability Appraisal Appendix 3 Details of Baseline Information 2004-05 1,615 -228 1,470 2,842 -2,463 -6 2005-06 2,395 268 1,716 2,954 -2,414 -129 2006-07 1,537 -889 1,786 3,051 -2,394 -17 2007-08 3,314 347 2,087 3,278 -2,381 -17 2008-09 2,166 -214 1,527 3,287 -2,443 9 2009-10 2,889 81 1,491 3,524 -2,232 25 2010-11 2,650 -365 1,759 3,714 -2,207 -251 2011-12 2,598 137 1,158 3,555 -2,175 -77 2012-13 1,928 -608 1,093 3,589 -2,222 76 2013-14 3,027 174 1,478 3,516 -2,165 24 2014-15 3,574 337 2,000 3,483 -2,248 2 2015-16 3,112 -464 1,986 3,670 -2,122 42 Total 32,416 -1,896 21,946 45,737 -32,777 -594 Source: ONS Mid Year Estimates ‘Other’ comprises unattributable change, special change and other adjustments for the years 2003-11 and is simply defined as ‘other’ in the ONS tables in the later years. Proportion of white British and minority ethnic population in Salford 2001 and 2011 Proportion of population (%) Salford NW England White Minority White Minority White Minority British Ethnic British Ethnic British Ethnic 2001 92.6 7.4 92.0 8.0 86.8 13.2 2011 84.4 15.6 87.1 12.9 79.8 20.2 Source: Census 2001 and 2011 Proportion of white British and minority ethnic population by ward - 2011 Proportion of Population (%) White British Minority Ethnic Barton 90.1 10.1 Boothstown & Ellenbrook 93.1 7.0 Broughton 80.0 20.1 Cadishead 95.2 4.7 Claremont 93.6 6.3 Eccles 87.3 12.8 Irlam 95.8 4.1 Irwell Riverside 81.7 18.3 Kersal 88.1 11.9 Langworthy 85.4 14.6 Little Hulton 93.7 6.2 Ordsall 80.2 19.8 Pendlebury 92.0 8.0 Swinton North 93.8 6.3 Swinton South 94.2 5.8 Walkden North 94.6 5.4 Walkden South 95.8 4.2 Weaste 88.3 11.8 Winton 93.8 6.2 Worsley 95.4 4.6 Source: Census 2011 KS201EW Ethnic group Household Composition Proportion
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