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State of the City 2016

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State of the City 2016 State of the City 2016 Salford City Council State of the City 2016 Compendium Report Public Health, Strategy & Change 1 / 144 State of the City 2016 CONTENTS 1. INTRODUCTION 3 2. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 4 3. COMMUNITY ASSETS 8 4. DEPRIVATION 19 5. POPULATION 21 6. HOUSEHOLDS 38 7. HOUSING 44 8. ECONOMY 55 9. SKILLS & EDUCATION 73 10. POVERTY 82 11. WELFARE 90 12. HEALTH & SOCIAL CARE 100 13. CRIME AND ANTI-SOCIAL BEHAVIOUR 125 14. ENVIRONMENT 132 15. TRANSPORT 136 APPENDIX Abbreviations 140 Definitions 141 Public Health, Strategy & Change 2 / 144 State of the City 2016 1. INTRODUCTION The purpose of this report is to: Present a detailed demographic, social, economic and environmental picture of the city of Salford and its people; Identify trends that will impact on the demand for, and take-up of, public services within the city; Spotlight the broad spread and diversity of community assets that engage Salford people across the city; Provide an update on Salford’s position within the Index of Multiple Deprivation based on a number of deprivation domains. The report focuses on trends during the last few years and current projections where available, including population, household, and dwelling projections. This report will also present a summary of the main issues and conclusions, while topic sections will include consideration of key questions drawing attention to potential areas of further research. At a strategic level this report supports work on the ‘Joint Strategic Needs Assessment’ (JSNA), the council budget, and setting of council priorities. Methodology Data were correct as of July 2016 when the report was prepared. There are three alternative but related population projections / forecasts available for the City of Salford. They are based on different methodologies and there are strengths and weaknesses associated with each. i. ONS 2011 based sub-national population projection. ii. City council forecast iii. Greater Manchester Forecast Model (GMFM) Forecast Caveats a) Historical trends: Some of the data presented in this document are extrapolated from trends seen over a specific time period prior to this report being written. The trend has then been applied to the current population to estimate the situation in the future. Therefore, there is an assumption that the trend will continue unchanged in the future and this should be borne in mind when interpreting the data. b) Complex relationships exist between data sets: Many of the factors examined are interrelated and therefore the true effect on a specific aspect of data is difficult to predict. A change to one aspect, for example employment, may have wide reaching effects on many others like commuting, health, migration etc. c) Uncertainties: The data do not account for uncertainties that have arisen since the data was collected, or that may emerge in the future, such as planning restrictions, neighbouring area growth (e.g. in the rest of Greater Manchester) or national policies etc. d) Data Currency: The data were up to date at the time of the latest annual releases. There may be more recent data that have been made available since this time. This report will be revised on an annual basis to take account of new data and key messages may therefore change in future. Public Health, Strategy & Change 3 / 144 State of the City 2016 2. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Community assets 1. A recent audit reveals that there are over 7,000 community assets within the city, most of which are local groups and services run by local people for local people. (Salford City Council 2015) Deprivation 2. Salford is 22nd most deprived of the 326 local authority districts in England, an improvement of 4 places since 2010 when Salford was ranked 18th most deprived district. (DCLG Index of Deprivation 2015) Continuing population growth 3. Salford’s population is increasing rapidly. In 2014 it was 242,000, an increase of 25,000 or 12% since 2001. It is projected to reach 284,000 by 2034 - a further increase of 42,000 or 17%. (Source: ONS mid year population estimates / sub- national population projections) 4. By 2021, the number of: Primary school children is projected to increase by 1,500 or 50 classes, Secondary school children is projected to increase by 2,300 or 77 classes, The older population aged over 65 is projected to increase by 1,900 (5%). Ethnicity and religion 5. Ethnic diversity within Salford is increasing rapidly. The Black and Minority Ethnic (BME) component of the city’s population increased from 5% in 2001 to 14% in 2011. (Source: Census 2011, and Salford City Council projection). 6. Numerous faiths in Salford have also increased notably in size. Although the number of people ‘declining to answer the question’ or stating their faith as Christian has decreased, in contrast the number of people describing their religion as Muslim, Other religion, No religion, Hindu, or Buddhist all increased by greater than 100% over 10 years and at faster rates than seen across both Greater Manchester and England. (Source: Census 2011). Households 7. During the period 2012-2037 it is projected that there will be a big relative increase in number of households with dependant children (29%). (DCLG 2012 based household projections 2015) 8. Households with a household representative over age 85 is projected to increase by 93% in Salford. (DCLG 2012 based household projections 2015) Public Health, Strategy & Change 4 / 144 State of the City 2016 Housing 9. The last five years saw around 600 net dwellings built per year. However, during the next five years there will be an annual average of 2,100 net additional dwellings. (Residential development Land Supply 2014/15; Salford City Council, Housing and Economic Land Availability Assessment 2015-2035, Aug 2015) 10. During the next 5 years (2015-2020) net additional dwellings are forecast to total almost 10,500, of which 5,900 are expected to be in Ordsall ward. (Salford City Council, Housing and Economic Land Availability Assessment 2015-2035, Aug 2015) 11. Almost 30,000 additional homes will be provided in Salford by 2035. (Salford City Council, Housing & Economic Land Availability Assessment 2015) 12. Salford experienced a substantial 78.5% increase in the number of households with at least 1 fewer rooms than required. (Census 2011) 13. Salford witnessed a 43% increase in the quantity of registered providers stock, in contrast to a decrease of -88.2% in local authority stock. This is largely due to 9,400 dwellings being transferred from the local authority to registered providers (primarily City West and Salix Homes). (CTax Dec 2013, Registered Providers Dec 2013, LA database Jan 2014) Business and the economy 14. Since 2011 business GVA in Salford grew by over £1bn and is forecast to grow by a similar amount by 2021. (Oxford Economics – Greater Manchester Forecast Model) 15. The total stock of businesses in Salford increased by 1,700 (22%) during the period 2010-2015. (Inter Departmental Business Register, 2010-2015) 16. Since 2011 the number of large business (250+ employees) have decreased by -17%. In contrast the number of micro businesses (0-9 employees) increased by 25%. (Inter Departmental Business register, 2010-2015) Education and skills 17. 48% of Salford pupils achieved 5+ GCSEs (inc Maths & English) in 2015 compared to 57% in England (Salford City Council). 18. 27% of Salford’s adult population have no qualifications compared to 22% in England (Census 2011) 19. Salford businesses will need 11,000 more employees qualified to NVQ4 level by 2021 (Oxford Economics – Greater Manchester Forecast Model) 20. 8.1% of Salford residents aged 16-18 are NEET compared to 4.9% in England (Connexions June 2015) Public Health, Strategy & Change 5 / 144 State of the City 2016 Inequality and deprivation 21. The unemployment claimant rate in Salford is 1.7% compared to 1.5% in England. (DWP claimant count Jan 2016) 22. Mean household income in Salford (£28,900) is 23% lower than the UK average (£37,500). (Experian Mosaic, 2015) 23. 25% of Salford Children live in poverty compared to 18% in England. (DWP 2013) 24. 9.6% of Salford’s working age population claim Incapacity Benefit/Employment and Support Allowance compared to 6.1% in England. (DWP 2015) Health and wellbeing 25. Male life expectancy in Salford is 76.7 years compared to 79.5 years in England (Public Health England 2011-13) 26. 21% of Salford’s population have a limiting long term condition compared to 18% in England (Census 2011) 27. 24% of Salford residents smoke compared to 18% in England (PHE 2014) 28. The rate of hospital admissions episodes for alcohol related conditions in Salford (954/100,000) is almost 50% higher than the rate for England (645/100,000) (PHE 2010-2014) Crime 29. The most common crime type is ‘anti social behaviour’ with over 9,700 incidents, while the second most common category is ‘criminal damage’ with over 3,300 incidents. (GMP Ibase system, 2014/15) 30. The biggest increase is evident in ‘hate crime’ at 26%, although this is less than the increase seen across Greater Manchester at 29%. (GMP Ibase system, 2014/15) 31. The biggest decrease is evident in ‘burglary of a dwelling’ at -4.5%, a greater improvement than the decrease seen across Greater Manchester at -1.8%. (GMP Ibase system, 2014/15) Environment 32. Total recycling increased by 30%, while general waste decreased by 21%. (GMWDA, 2015) 33. Dumping/ flytipping complaints decreased by -10% although litter complaints increased by 16%. (Flare system, 2014/15) 34. Total CO2 emissions decreased by -8%. Domestic emissions decreased by a substantial -18%. (GMFM, 2015) Public Health, Strategy & Change 6 / 144 State of the City 2016 35. Between 2016 - 2021, total CO2 emissions are forecast to decrease by -12%.
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