STOUR VALLEY ELECTORAL DIVISION PROFILE 2017 This Division comprises Boxford, Bures St Mary, Leavenheath and wards

www.suffolkobservatory.info

© Crown copyright and database rights 2017 Ordnance Survey 100023395

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CONTENTS

. Demographic Profile: Age & Ethnicity . Economy and Labour Market . Schools & NEET . Index of Multiple Deprivation . Health . Crime & Community Safety . Additional Information . Data Sources

3 ELECTORAL DIVISION PROFILES: AN INTRODUCTION

These profiles have been produced to support elected members, constituents and other interested parties in understanding the demographic, economic, social and educational profile of their neighbourhoods. We have used the latest data available at the time of publication.

Much more data is available from national and local sources than is captured here, but it is hoped that the profile will be a useful starting point for discussion, where local knowledge and experience can be used to flesh out and illuminate the information presented here.

The profile can be used to help look at some fundamental questions e.g. . Does the age profile of the population match or differ from the national profile? . Is there evidence of the ageing profile of the county in all the wards in the Division or just some? . How diverse is the community in terms of ethnicity? . What is the impact of deprivation on families and residents? . Does there seem to be a link between deprivation and school performance? . What is the breakdown of employment sectors in the area? . Is it a relatively healthy area compared to the rest of the district or county? . What sort of crimes are prevalent in the community?

A vast amount of additional data is available on the Observatory

www.suffolkobservatory.info

The Suffolk Observatory is a free online resource that contains all Suffolk’s vital statistics; it is the one‐stop‐shop for information and intelligence about Suffolk. Through data, reports and profiles, the Suffolk Observatory provides a comprehensive picture of the County. It is a great source for useful facts and figures that can be used for writing reports and presentations, informing strategic and business planning, preparing funding applications or supporting academic research. Data is presented around the key themes of education and skills, economy and employment, health and care, population, deprivation, housing, environment, transport and travel and crime. All areas of the county are covered, right down to district, ward and parish level, with information easily accessible in a variety of formats. You can also build your own reports by different themes and topics.

Technical Notes: 1. Where Electoral Divisions do not exactly match ward boundaries, we have adopted a “best fit” approach to produce a dataset. 2. District, county and national level data is provided where possible to provide a context for comparisons.

4 DEMOGRAPHIC PROFILE ‐ AGE In mid‐2015 the population of Stour Valley stood at 7,410, an decrease of 1.1% since the 2011 Census. The age structure of the component wards and the division as a whole is set out below.

Stour Valley Division Boxford Bures St Mary Leavenheath Nayland All Ages 7,410 2,197 1,739 1,686 1,788 0‐4 316 78 85 72 81 5‐9 430 137 93 78 122 10‐14 435 150 93 116 76 15‐19 339 102 80 70 87 20‐24 255 90 87 40 38 25‐29 223 70 57 49 47 30‐34 273 77 75 58 63 35‐39 342 105 72 86 79 40‐44 465 138 96 107 124 45‐49 594 195 131 137 131 50‐54 559 170 129 127 133 55‐59 553 179 126 127 121 60‐64 532 140 138 135 119 65‐69 645 203 147 152 143 70‐74 504 139 132 106 127 75‐79 378 82 88 106 102 80‐84 287 92 56 58 81 85+ 280 50 54 62 114

85+ 80‐84 75‐79 70‐74 65‐69 60‐64 55‐59 50‐54 45‐49 40‐44 35‐39 30‐34 25‐29 20‐24 15‐19 10‐14 5‐9 0‐4

‐10% ‐8% ‐6% ‐4% ‐2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10%

UK ‐ females UK ‐ males Stour Valley ‐ females Stour Valley ‐ males

5 . The age pyramid for Stour Valley shows a higher than average proportion of people over the age of 45 . The most common age group in Stour Valley is 65‐69 year olds, followed by 45‐49 year olds. The number of people of retirement age looks set to increase markedly in the coming years . There is a much lower than average proportion of people of working age, particularly 20‐39 year olds, and a low percentage of children aged under 5

ETHNICITY

100%

90%

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70%

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50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0% White White British Mixed Asian & Asian Black & Black Other ethnic BME British British group

Stour Valley Babergh Suffolk County

. According to the latest data (2011 Census), 98.7% of the population of Stour Valley are white . 1.3% people are of black or minority ethnic origin in the division, more than one and a half times the number at the time of the 2001 Census . Stour Valley has a similar diversity profile to , and generally lower proportions of minority ethnic groups than Suffolk as a whole

Asian and Black and Other Black or All White White British Mixed Asian Black Ethnic Minority people British British Group Ethnic Total

Count Count % Count % Count % Count % Count % Count % Count % Stour Valley 7,486 7,385 98.7 7,209 96.3 57 0.8 27 0.4 8 0.1 9 0.1 101 1.3 Babergh 87,740 85,845 97.8 83,666 95.4 827 0.9 666 0.8 264 0.3 138 0.2 1,895 2.2 Suffolk 728,163 693,195 95.2 661,458 90.8 12,472 1.7 13,131 1.8 6,854 0.9 2,511 0.3 34,968 4.8 England 86.0 80.5 2.2 6.7 2.8 0.4 12.1 & Wales

6 ECONOMY

There are 2,000 people employed in Stour Valley.

25%

20%

15%

10%

5%

0%

Stour Valley Babergh Suffolk Great Britain

. The key employment sectors in Stour Valley are construction, other services, accommodation and food services and wholesale, retail and motor trades . These four sectors account for almost 60% of jobs in the division are account for a much larger proportion of local employment than they do nationally. For example, construction provides more than one in five jobs in Stour Valley but less than one in 20 across Great Britain as a whole

7 LABOUR MARKET

JOB SEEKERS ALLOWANCE CLAIMANT RATE

2.5%

2.0%

1.5%

1.0%

0.5%

0.0%

Stour Valley Babergh Suffolk

. Stour Valley generally has a Job Seekers Allowance claimant rate below the district average and well below the Suffolk and UK level . In February 2017, 0.6% of the working age population (aged 16‐64) are claiming JSA, around half the Suffolk and UK average

8 SCHOOLS

SCHOOL INFORMATION

Schools in the Division Average cohort size at: Foundation KS2 (age Latest Ofsted Name Phase Stage Latest Ofsted 11) Date (age 5) Boxford CEVCP School Primary 27 34 Outstanding 24/04/2012 Bures CEVCP School Primary 29 25 Outstanding 04/10/2007 Nayland Primary School Primary 30 27 Outstanding 25/09/2008 Requires Stoke‐by‐Nayland CEVCP School Primary 9 12 07/02/2017 Improvement

Schools Catchment overlaps with the Division Average cohort size at: Foundation KS2 KS4 KS5 Latest Name Phase Stage (age (age (age Latest Ofsted Ofsted (age 5) 11) 16) 18) Date Kersey CEVCP School Primary 11 8 Outstanding 23/02/2012 CP School Primary 15 17 Outstanding 10/03/2011 Wells Hall CP School Primary 58 80 Good 13/03/2017 Thomas Gainsborough Not yet inspected Upper 78 233 45 High as an Academy Hadleigh High School Upper 156 Good 20/10/2015

9 SCHOOL ATTAINMENT

Foundation Stage Profile (reception) % pupils achieving Good Level of Development

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0 2014 2015 2016

Boxford CEVCP School Bures CEVCP School Nayland Primary School Stoke‐by‐Nayland CEVCP School Suffolk National

. Foundation Stage attainment at Nayland Primary School has seen sustained improvement in each of the past three years and is 2016 was the highest performing school in the division with the percentage of children achieving a Good Level of Development being above the county and national averages . Attainment at Boxford and Bures CEVCP Schools has been consistently close to or above the national average from 2014 to 2016 . Stoke‐by‐Nayland CEVCP School saw Foundation Stage attainment rise in 2015 but remaining adrift or county and national averages. In 2016 no pupils were recorded as achieving a Good Level of Development

10 Key Stage 2 (age 11) Pupil Achievement in all three subjects, Reading, Writing and Mathematics (2014–2015 as % Level 4 or better & 2016 % Expected Level or better)

In July 2016, there was a change in the way pupil achievement is measured at the end of KS2. Prior to 2016, pupils received National Curriculum Level grades for English and Maths, with L4 being the expected level at the end of Key Stage 2. In 2016 the measure became a scaled score and showed whether or not a pupil had achieved the national standard for that subject.

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0 2014 2015 2016

Boxford CEVCP School Bures CEVCP School Nayland Primary School Stoke‐by‐Nayland CEVCP School Suffolk National

. Key Stage 2 attainment at schools in Stour Valley has generally been good over the past three years . KS2 attainment at Bures CEVCP and Nayland Primary Schools has been consistently above the Suffolk and national averages from 2014 to 2016 . Boxford CEVCP School has seen steady improvement in KS2 attainment compared to the Suffolk and national averages, and in 2016 was saw the highest percentage of pupils achieving the expected level or better in reading, writing and mathematics of any school in the division (67%, compared to 53% nationally) . KS2 attainment at Stoke‐by‐Nayland CEVCP School was below average in 2015 and 2016

GCSE (Key Stage 4) (age 11) & A Level (Key Stage 5) (age 18) There are no Upper schools in the Stour Valley division

11 NEET % (NOT IN EDUCATION, EMPLOYMENT OR TRAINING)

8%

7%

6%

5%

4%

3%

2%

1%

0% 13 13 13 13 14 14 14 14 15 15 15 15 16 16 16 16 13 14 14 15 15 16 16 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ Jun Jun Jun Jun Oct Oct Oct Oct Apr Apr Apr Apr Feb Feb Feb Dec Dec Dec Dec Aug Aug Aug Aug

Stour Valley Babergh Suffolk

. In January 2017 1.2% of 16‐18 year olds were classified as NEET in Stour Valley (where current activity is known). This compares favourably to the Babergh and Suffolk level of 4.4% . NEET levels in Stour Valley have generally been below the district and county averages over the last three years

12 INDEX OF MULTIPLE DEPRIVATION (IMD) 2015 (SEE MAP OVERLEAF)

The IMD combines a number of indicators, chosen to cover a range of economic, social and housing issues, into a single deprivation score for each small area in England. This allows each area to be ranked relative to one another according to their level of deprivation. Small areas (Lower Super Output Areas, average population 1,500) are most usually described as being in 1 of 5 quintile bands. The bottom quintile represents the 20% of areas that are the most deprived in the country; these are shaded red on the map. The top quintile represents the least deprived areas in the country, and is shaded green. The Index is widely used to analyse patterns of deprivation, identify areas that would benefit from special initiatives or programmes and as a tool to determine eligibility for specific funding streams.

60%

50%

40% quintile

by 30% LSOAs

of

% 20%

10%

0% Most deprived Next most Mid 20% Next least Least deprived 20% deprived 20% deprived 20% 20%

Stour Valley Babergh Suffolk England

. The IMD 2015 shows that deprivation levels in Stour Valley are uniformly low across the division, with the entire division among the mid 20% and next least deprived 20% nationally . Of the four Lower Layer Super Output Areas (LSOA) comprising the division, two are ranked in the mid 20% quintile and two in the next least deprived 20% of LSOAs in the country

13 14 HEALTH

The local data used here is based on relatively small numbers. The confidence limits provide an indication of the reliability of the data. The 95% confidence intervals utilised on the chart provide a range within which there is 95% chance of the true result lying.

LIFE EXPECTANCY AT BIRTH 90 88 86 84 82 80 78 76 74 Stour Valley Babergh Suffolk UK

Life expectancy at birth for males, 2010‐2014 Life expectancy at birth for females, 2010‐2014

. Estimated life expectancy figures for Stour Valley are above the Babergh, Suffolk and UK estimates for both males and females

DEATHS, UNDER 75 YEARS, STANDARDISED MORTALITY RATIO 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 Deaths from all causes Deaths from all cancer Deaths from circulatory Deaths from coronary disease heart disease

Stour Valley Babergh Suffolk UK

. Early deaths from all causes occur at a relatively low rate compared to the county and national level . The standardised mortality ratio data shown here means that for every 100 early deaths from all causes across the UK as a whole, there are an estimated 70 comparable deaths in Stour Valley . The estimated figure for deaths from cancer in the division is slightly above the district level but for the other individual causes (circulatory and coronary heart disease), the rate in Stour Valley is well below average (though the confidence intervals around these estimates at local level are significant) 15 CRIME & COMMUNITY SAFETY

70

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40

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0 Stour Valley Babergh Suffolk

Burglary Criminal Damage Drug Offences Other Theft Public Disorder Serious Sexual Offences Vehicle Crime Violence with Injury Violence without Injury Other

. Stour Valley shows a lower rate of crime compared to the district and county level, with around 35 crimes recorded per 1,000 residents in the division (47 in Babergh and 59 in Suffolk) . Criminal damage, violence without injury and burglary are the most commonly recorded crimes in Stour Valley, with the latter occurring at a higher rate per 1,000 residents than across Suffolk as a whole

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION

Parishes in Division Lindsey Boxford Bures St. Mary Milden Nayland‐with‐Wissington Groton Newton Leavenheath Stoke‐by‐Nayland

16 DATA SOURCES

Category Indicator Source ONS 2015 mid‐year population Quinary population table 2015 estimates Demographic ONS 2015 mid‐year population Profile Population pyramid 2015 estimates

Ethnicity 2011 ONS 2011 Census ONS Business Register and Economy Employment by broad industrial sector 2015 Employment Survey via NOMIS Job Seekers Allowance Claimant Rate (% 16‐64 Labour market DWP via NOMIS population) 2014‐2017 School information and attainment 2014‐2016 Suffolk County Council Education % 16‐18 year olds NEET (Not in Employment, Suffolk County Council Education or Training) 2013‐2017 Department for Communities Deprivation Index of Multiple Deprivation 2015 and Local Government Health Life expectancy at birth 2010‐2014 Public Health England Standardised mortality ratio for deaths from all causes, cancer, circulatory disease and coronary heart disease, aged under 75 2010‐2014. The Health Public Health England standardised mortality ratio is the ratio of observed deaths in the study group to expected deaths in the general population. Community Recorded crime rate per 1,000 resident population Suffolk Police Safety 2015

For more data and information about Stour Valley Electoral Division, see the Suffolk Observatory www.suffolkobservatory.info

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