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IPCS No. 37, 2007 SPECIAL REPORT

India’s Policy A DILEMMA BETWEEN REALISM AND IDEALISM

Yogendra Singh

INSTITUTE OF PEACE AND CONFLICT STUDIES

B 7/3 Safdarjung Enclave, New Delhi110029, Tel: 91-1151652556-9; Fax: 91-11-51652560 Email: [email protected]; Web: www.ipcs.org INDIA'S MYANMAR POLICY A Dilemma between Realism and Idealism Yogendra Singh, Research Assistant, IPCS

Myanmar is often perceived to be a buffer Myanmar also wanted to avoid being state between the two Asian giants of India identified too closely with . and China. Its strategic location provides Myanmar with an opportunity to play a During the regime of , the nature of significant role in the geopolitics of South the India-Myanmar relationship was and Southeast . In addition, the stagnant but cordial on the whole. A availability of in Myanmar sequence of high level official exchanges gives an economic dimension to its strategic continued as Indian Prime Minister Lal significance. Myanmar shares a 1640 km- Bahadur Shastri visited Myanmar in 1965, long land and maritime boundary with the two countries signed a boundary India, making it a crucial element of India’s agreement in1967, and Indira security calculus and ensuring that amicable paid a visit in 1969. During her visit, Ne relations with Myanmar are vital. Win made assurances that Myanmar would not allow any anti-Indian activities on its AN OVERVIEW OF THE INDIA- by any state or organization. Ne MYANMAR RELATIONSHIP Win also visited India in 1980. However, The -Myanmar relations has during ’s tenure, India was seen many ups and downs. After the end of largely neutral and disinterested in British rule, Myanmar opted for a policy of Myanmar, because a “commitment to harmonious relations with India and the two democratic values” was prioritized ahead countries signed a treaty of friendship in of “security concerns” in the Indian foreign 1951. A definite warmth in Indo-Myanmar policy agenda towards Myanmar. This ties was particularly apparent during the policy of idealism was also continued by period of and . The Rajiv Gandhi. When the SLORC assumed two leaders had a shared understanding power in Myanmar in 1988, India under on various global and regional issues like the leadership of Rajiv Gandhi extended Indonesian freedom from the Dutch and the its moral support to the pro-democracy Korean War. movement and offered refuge to the people of Myanmar who migrated to India However, in 1962, when Ne Win came to to flee military suppression. power after a military coup in Myanmar, India-Myanmar relations came under strain A paradigm shift in India’s policy towards due to the anti-Indian policies of the Myanmar was seen during the when military regime. Ne Win’s policy of a India decided to court the junta. For “” hurt the example, Indian Foreign Secretary J N interests of the people of Indian origin in Dixit’s 1993 visit to culminated in Myanmar and Myanmar’s neutral stand in an agreement to control drug trafficking. 1962 during the Chinese attack against This shift in India’s policy was propelled by India was seen as a pro-Chinese act by three main factors. First, owing to India. As India’s image as a regional Myanmar’s isolation from the rest of the counterbalance to China diminished after , Chinese influence in Myanmar was the 1962 conflict, Myanmar foreign policy increasing. India was concerned about this calculations also inclined more towards relative gain of China in Myanmar because China rather than India. Nevertheless, it potentially paved the way for a possible despite these serious setbacks, India was encirclement of India by China through never completely sidelined, because three pro-Chinese regimes in the IPCS SPECIAL REPORT No 37, March 2007 neighbourhood - , and the independence of India from the British. Myanmar. Second, in order to counter the Due to their ethnic connections, insurgent emerging non-traditional security threats in groups from the northeast of India not only , coordination with Myanmar receive shelter in Myanmar but also was essential. Third, India started its “Look operate bases from there. Indian East” policy in 1991, intended to increase intelligence officials claim that at least half engagement with ASEAN, and Myanmar a dozen separatist rebel groups, including was the only ASEAN member which shared the Khaplang faction of the National a border with India. Thus Myanmar was Socialist Council of and ULFA, seen as a gateway to ASEAN by Indian continue to operate from bases in the policymakers. Sagiang Division of Myanmar. These insurgent outfits continue to operate Due to these changing dynamics, India successfully because they receive sanctuary accordingly adopted a new pragmatic in India’s neighbour. Although Yangon has policy in relation with Myanmar. assured several times that it Nonetheless, India’s decision to honour would not allow its territory to be utilized Suu Kyi with the Jawaharlal for anti- Indian activities, these assurance Nehru award indicated that idealism still have only proved to be verbal in nature abounded in India’s foreign policy. In fact, and have not produced real benefits to the government put India. Although Myanmar has cracked rights considerations and the restoration of down on Naga rebels it has demonstrated democracy at the top of its policy agenda reluctance in the case of ULFA and other towards Myanmar. However, when the BJP outfits. came to power in India, it began to stress “realpolitik” over idealism in relations with India is looking for a response from Myanmar. The Congress-led government Myanmar like the Bhutanese Operation All- that followed has continued the policy of Clear in 2003, and to this end engaging with the existing military regime. has tried to appease the junta by being India now seems to have accepted that the ready to supply the junta with military restoration of democracy in Myanmar is an equipment for the upgradation of their internal matter and India has no role in it. army. Myanmar has said that it is not A sign of the growing India-Myanmar possible for it to crack down on insurgent relationship can be seen in two path- camps due to their remoteness and has breaking visits between leaders of the two therefore sought assistance from India for countries. The first was by the Chairman of improving and the the SPDC, General to India in upgradation of military facilities. In his 2004 - the first level visit recent visit to Myanmar, Indian Defence from Myanmar in 24 years. Indian Minister, , emphasized President A P J Abdul Kalam paid a return the need for military cooperation between visit to Myanmar in 2006 - the first by an India and Myanmar. Indian President to Myanmar and the first level visit to Myanmar Together with and , Myanmar after 1987. is also part of the notorious ‘Golden Triangle’ region of the narcotics trade, and INDIA’S SECURITY CONCERNS VIS-À-VIS is a source of drug trafficking and HIV MYANMAR AIDS in , and Nagaland. Myanmar shares a boundary with most of To counter these non-traditional security the northeastern part of India. The Indian threats, better management of the Indo- states of , Manipur, Mizoram, Myanmar border is required. The two Nagaland and all armies are organizing regular meetings in share borders with, or are very close to, border posts such as Moreh-Tamu in Myanmar. This part of India has been Manipur and have agreed to open four facing -related problems since more posts for such meetings.

2 INDIA’S MYANMAR POLICY A Dilemma between Realism and Idealism

challenging target, owing to problems in THE CHINA FACTOR the trade structure of India and Myanmar. Joseph Grieco, in his interpretation of neo- Due to the lack of better linkages between realism claims that states are more the people and trade organization of both concerned about a competitor’s relative sides, trade diversification, which is vital gains rather than its absolute gains. In for increasing bilateral trade, is not crafting its foreign policy agenda towards possible. So there is a need to make the Myanmar, therefore, India also focuses on people of both sides aware about the China’s relative gains. It is the China factor possibilities and opportunities available in that motivates India’s Myanmar policy to both countries - Indian President Abdul take the neo-realist path and which Kalam, for example, offered a new idea compels India to court the junta. of developing linkages in the of traditional medicines between India and With the on lease from Myanmar. There are various common herbs Myanmar, China can access the Indian that are available in Myanmar and India’s Ocean and has facilities to not only watch northeast and the two countries can work the naval activities on the eastern cost of together in the direction of standardizing India but also to spy on India’s missile them according to the IPR regime and thus launching program. China’s influence in make them acceptable to the world. Indian Myanmar can disturb India’s maritime expertise in biotechnology could be very strategic calculations as China can access valuable for such a venture. the Arabian Pakistan’s and the via Myanmar. In In the existing trade structure between addition, China has also signed an India and Myanmar, India imports most of agreement to develop the harbour of Myanmar’s products via indirect routes as Hambantota in . Chinese access to in the case of via or these strategic locations can provide the , or precious stones via Thailand. potential for a maritime encirclement of So there remains a need to address this India by China. China is also assisting problem. Myanmar to develop its naval bases in , Hianggyi, Khaukphyu, Mergui and Growth in border trade will also be Zadetkyikyan by building radar and especially imperative for enhancing India- refuelling facilities that could help Chinese Myanmar trade relations. With this is mind, submarine operations in the Bay of . the border trade commodities basket should be broadened from the present INDO-MYANMAR TRADE RELATIONS limited list of 22 commodities. The opening Bilateral trade between India and of that lies on the crest of the Myanmar has expanded from US$12.4 hills on the India- Myanmar border million in 1981-82 to US$569 million in can also provide a new route to link 2004-05, although it is still short of the people living in border areas. target of US$ 1 billion in 2006, set by the two sides at the first meeting of the Joint Trade relations with Myanmar also have Trade Committee (JTC) held in Yangon in some strategic implications for India 2003. The second meeting of the JTC was because Myanmar is the only member of held in 2006 in New Delhi and co-chaired ASEAN that shares a border with India and by the commerce and industry ministers of a greater connectivity with Myanmar both sides. Both ministers emphasized the would provide India the gateway to natural complementarities of the two ASEAN. Trade relations with Myanmar can which provided the prospect of also accelerate the development process in cooperation in various areas like IT, Northeast India and thus India is interested tourism, food processing, human resource to invest in various infrastructure projects in development and pharmaceuticals. Myanmar. However, increasing bilateral trade is a

3 IPCS SPECIAL REPORT No 37, March 2007

India invested in a trilateral project GAIL is therefore exploring other routes for joining More in Manipur with Mairot in a pipeline that would bypass Bangladesh. Thailand, via in Myanmar. India will With the help of a detailed feasibility also invest US$100 million to build the report prepared by a technical Kaladan project which includes a 160km- consultancy, Tractabel, GAIL has envisaged long waterway from Sithway to Mizoram. the import of gas through a 1573km The Exim Bank of India has provided a overland pipeline from Myanmar via the credit of US$56.358 million for the northeastern Indian states of Mizoram and Yangon- trunkline railway Assam to and finally to Gaya project and India is also ready to invest in in . projects like the upgradation of the Rhi- Tiddim and Rhi-Falaam road sections in However, the possibility of this idea taking Myanmar. India is also providing assistance off appears dim in the light of two events - to the Timanthi hydropower project on first, the signing of an agreement for gas . India has nearly doubled its supply between Petrochina and Myanmar; development aid to Myanmar from US$9.9 and second, Myanmar’s declaration that it million in 2006-07 to US$17.8 million in will look for the export option, only in the the 2007-08 budget. case of there being a surplus of gas after fulfilling local demands. Myanmar will MYANMAR’S ROLE IN INDIA’S ENERGY decide about exports when a survey of its SECURITY MANAGEMENT SYSTEM resources is completed in July 2007. GAIL India is on the path of rapid economic is also looking at the feasibility of growth and to sustain this growth, exporting gas in the form of LNG. sustainability of energy supply is Myanmar Oil and Gas Enterprises called indispensable. India depends heavily upon for a bid for selling 3.5 million tons per West Asian oil but because of instability in annum of LNG (121mmscmd) from South this region India also aims to diversify its Korean-operated blocks A-1 and A-3. energy supply sources. Although Myanmar GAIL also bid for it but was outdone by has only a limited potential to satisfy Marubeni of and KOGAS of South India’s energy quest in comparison to West Korea who emerged as the top bidders for Asia, because of its geographical LNG. All these bids currently remain under proximity and the availability of natural evaluation. So the idea of importing gas gas as a cost effective and eco-friendly from Myanmar is still far from a reality source of energy, Myanmar is an attractive despite, the complimentary nature of target for India’s energy diplomacy. There potential future energy scenarios in both is thus an immense possibility for energy countries. cooperation between India and Myanmar, both in the hydropower and the CONCLUSION hydrocarbon sector. However, this potential Be it traditional, non-traditional, or even has not been actualized fully so far energy security, Myanmar is definitely an because of certain political and economic important component of India’s security reasons. management system. Engagement with Myanmar is, therefore, logical for India. Although Oil and Natural Gas Cooperation The problem before India is what should (ONGC) and Gas Authority of India be the nature of engagement with one of Limited (GAIL) have a stake of 30 percent the most brutal regimes in the world. India in the A-1 block of the Rakhine coast of recently decided to supply arms to the Myanmar, the possibility of greater energy junta in order to address its immediate cooperation between India and Myanmar security concerns but it seems unlikely that has diminished due to Bangladesh’s this would pay off for India in the long run reluctance to the proposed MBI pipeline. as the junta has previously used the military hardware provided by India for suppressing pro-democracy activists and

4 INDIA’S MYANMAR POLICY A Dilemma between Realism and Idealism ethnic minorities. As a consequence, the (-Ganga Cooperation), but military perception of civil society in Myanmar has cooperation should be limited. BIMSTEC is recently turned negative towards India. definitely an opportunity for Myanmar to Consequently, India might face adverse boost an that has been destroyed conditions, if and when democracy makes a by western sanctions. Therefore, in order to comeback in Myanmar. The country then court the junta, India should prefer would be open neither to China nor to economic engagement with Myanmar, India but to the US, because of the latter’s instead of involving itself in the race with support for a resolution against Myanmar’s China for supplying arms to Myanmar. It is, in the UN Security Council. in any case, not possible for India to Myanmar could be the next country in reduce Chinese influence with either the to come under the security Myanmar military or the junta simply by umbrella of the US. This might be a cause supplying arms because China with its veto for concern for both India and China. power in the UNSC is more important than Therefore, in order to engage with a India for Myanmar. country like Myanmar which is very sensitive and strategically significant, India India has been facing a dilemma between needs to reach a delicate balance idealism and realism since the between its immediate requirements and its establishment of long-term interests. India should engage in 1962. However, neither approach on its Myanmar but in such a manner that the own can serve India’s interests. India should sentiments of the people of Myanmar are adopt a realist policy but with a blend of not compromised. India should increase idealism. This idealism is not against the cooperation with Myanmar in the area of national interest of India and would the economy and trade, especially under definitely pay off for India in the long run. the framework of BIMSTEC, MGC

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