ePaper November 2017 Antoine de Cabanes The Front National and the 2017 Electoral Cycle: Mixed Fortunes 2 Antoine de Cabanes The Front National and the 2017 Electoral Cycle: Mixed Fortunes TABLE OF CONTENTS Executive Summary 3 The Front National and the 2017 Electoral Cycle: Mixed Fortunes 3 The incapacity of the Front National to achieve its electoral goals gives an overall impression of failure 4 Meanwhile, the election returns shows unprecedented successes which have to be acknowledged 5 The mitigated perspectives of the Front National 6 Evaluating the radical left strategies against the far right, with a particular look to Mélenchon and the France Insoumise 9 The need for an in depth scientific analysis of the electoral dynamics in order to give inputs to the strategic debate 11 Antoine de Cabanes works with Espaces Marx and studies Political Science and International Relations at Sorbonne Univer- sity. His work mainly focuses on monetary and economic issues at European level, on the French and European far right as well as on the issues raised by strategic debates in light of electoral sociology. IMPRINT 2017 transform! european network for alternative thinking and political dialogue Square de Meeûs 25 1000 Brussels, Belgium transform! europe is partially financed through a subsidy from the European Parliament. This work by transform! is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International License. Permissions beyond the scope of this license may be available at office (at) transform-network.net. Layout: sanja.at e.U. Cover photo: “Maine Le Pen, from the Front National, a national-conservative political party in France in meeting for the presidential election of 2017 at the Zenith of Paris” by Frederic Legrand – COMEO / Shutterstock.com – Editorial credit. The Front National and the 2017 Electoral Cycle: Mixed Fortunes 3 The Front National and the 2017 Electoral Cycle: Mixed Fortunes Antoine de Cabanes Less than six months after accessing the second round the presidency of his new association so that the debate of the presidential election and gathering more than 10 would take place inside the FN and not publicly and thus million votes in the second round, the Front National (FN) preserve the integrity and unity of the FN. Philippot’s re- is in deep crisis. Some weeks ago, on the 21st of Septem- fusal caused his departure, which was greeted with much ber, Florian Philippot announced his resignation from the cheer by the identitarian-neoliberal wing of the FN. vice-presidency of the FN as well as his decision to quit the In the days following his departure, Philippot decided to party1. Philippot was vice-president in charge of the com- transform “Les Patriotes” into a political party and collect- munication and the strategy of the FN and consequently ed the rallying of elected representative (around 50 elect- was considered as the architect of the “dédiabolisation” ed members from city councils and regional councils but strategy2 and the electoral successes of the FN since Ma- also a few MEPs) and dozens of activists and members. This rine Le Pen became chairwoman of the FN in 20113. He was schism is firstly the consequence of the defeat in the elec- her closest advisor, directed her presidential campaign in toral cycle, as the ideological division of the FN between 2012, and played a key role in the exclusion of Jean-Marie two wings pre-existed for years. The Front National had Le Pen from the party he founded. Philippot contributed high expectations for the 2017 elections including among to the diversification of the thematics addressed by the FN other things the formation of a parliamentary group, the and elaborated the anti-EU and Eurozone framework. In election of dozens of members of parliament, the acces- summary, he was central in the transformation of the FN sion to the second round and narrowing the gap in the sec- into a right-wing populist party instead of a marginalized, ond round compared to the 2002 election when Jean-Ma- demonized far right party associated with the Vichy Re- rie Le Pen was defeated by Jaques Chirac who gathered gime and the nostalgia of the colonial empire. more than 82% of the votes. The ongoing crisis emerged After the defeat of the FN in the second round of the pres- from the failure to reach these objectives and therefore idential election against Emmanuel Macron, Philippot de- revitalised the ideological debate which turned into a dis- cided to create an association, called “Les Patriotes” (the pute over the responsibilities and causes of this failure, patriots) in order to defend his anti EU social-chauvinist thus leading to a witch hunt inside the party4. The current political line. This tendency was blamed by several promi- situation requires analysing thoroughly the electoral cycle nent figures of the party of being responsible for the defeat for understanding the origins of the FN crisis but also for of the FN in the presidential and parliamentary elections. assessing the unprecedented successes of the FN and the These accusations and critics started in May 2017, during efficiency of radical left strategies to counter the influence the campaign for the parliamentary elections and polluted of the populist far right. the FN campaign, but turned into an internal crisis when the electoral cycle ended, in June. During the summer, di- visions and disagreements within the FN about the causes of the defeat were publicly exposed by polemics on social media or arguments developed in opinion columns and aggressive remarks on TV sets. And the political comeback after the summer break intensified the crisis which forced Marine Le Pen to intervene. Le Pen asked Philippot to quit 1 https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/sep/21/marine-le-pen-aide-florian-philippot-to-quit-france-front-national 2 Dédiabolisation will be translated as normalization. 3 https://www.nytimes.com/2015/03/21/world/europe/a-french-politician-who-has-helped-refine-the-national-front-party.html 4 https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/worldviews/wp/2017/09/21/frances-national-front-lost-big-in-the-last-two-elections- now-the-far-right-party-is-in-chaos/?utm_term=.35fd3c294139 4 THE INCAPACITY OF THE FRONT NATIONAL TO ACHIEVE ITS ELECTORAL GOALS GIVES AN OVERALL IMPRESSION OF FAILURE In order to apprehend the current situation in France re- na by the European Parliament corruption affairs (several garding the far right and the extent of its electoral defeat, FN legislative assistants are accused of fictional work5,6). it is important to revisit the whole last year. A year ago, the In addition, Marine Le Pen was in competition with Fillon FN was in a very strong position: the political and media for catching the conservative right-wing voters and with agenda was extremely favourable for the FN as the two Mélenchon for attracting the abstainers and the anti-sys- main issues polarizing the public debate were terrorism (as tem working classes voters, while Macron contested her a consequence of the July 2016 Nice terrorist attack) and anti-system image by claiming to embody a political wind the place of Islam in France (with the burkini controversy of change. Within this framework, Marine Le Pen’s cam- which was another headscarf-like polemic). The period paign strategy was a disadvantage and explains her grad- from 2012 until 2016 was characterized by the rise of the ual decline in polls. FN. They increased their electorate and stabilized it around In the first round of the election, Marine Le Pen arrived sec- 5 to 6 million voters. The local elections which took place in ond, after Macron, gathering 7.6 million votes and 21.3%. 2014 and 2015 were the occasion for them to build a strong This was a relative failure as the opinion polls a year ago and unprecedented local implantation combining elected predicted Le Pen to arrive first. The 21.3% were considered representatives in city councils and a dense network of ac- as disappointing because of the discrepancy with the ex- tivists. In addition, they increased their membership and pectations but also because of the shortness of the gap took the lead of the 2014 European election. Finally, since with Marine Le Pen’s adversary (Fillon ended at 20.1% and 2013 all the opinion polls concerning the 2017 presidential Mélenchon at 19.58%). During the time between the two election predicted the accession of Marine Le Pen in the rounds, Macron succeeded to catch all the attention, made second round of the election and many of them put her in a triumphal campaign and the traditional debate turned first position. out to be a defeat for Le Pen, all the commentators (and However, the electoral campaign for the 2017 presidential even the sympathisers and several activists of the Front election turned out to be much more difficult for the FN National) stated that Macron won the debate and decon- than they anticipated. Les Républicains’ primary elections, structed Le Pen’s arguments and proposals. Macron’s victo- the conservative party, monopolized the media attention ry in the second round was overwhelming with more than and the political agenda during the last months of 2016, 66% of the votes; Marine Le Pen lost the second round by as well as the rise of Macron’s candidacy. The beginning of far as she wasn’t able to narrow the gap with Macron. At 2017 was filled by the Parti Socialiste primaries, the cor- no time Le Pen was in position to threaten Macron and ruption affairs of François Fillon and also the Macron dy- appear as a potential winner of the second round, which namic in polls.