07 October 2009

Afghanistan Review

This document is intended to provide an overview of relevant sector events in from 30 September -06 October 2009. More comprehensive information is available on the Civil- Military Overview (CMO) at www.cimicweb.org.1

Inside This Issue Letters to the Editor: Jonathan Hadaway, [email protected]..int /+1 757-683-4233: Letters to the Editor

In Focus Dear Sir, if the US does not agree to General McChrystal's troop increase (Reference: Economic Stabilization 30 September 2009 CFC Afghanistan Review, „In Focus‟) it will undermine a crucial, first step in counterinsurgency: showing the population that you have the will to win. Governance & Participation Counterinsurgency operations require additional troops. The necessary focus, Humanitarian Assistance resources, strategy and troops have yet to be dedicated to Afghanistan. I think a new strategy with the required number of military forces deserves a chance to succeed.

Infrastructure Justice & Reconciliation --Jesse Wilson, Central Command (CENTCOM)

Security

Social Well-Being

Response to Last Week‟s Question In Focus: Eide vs. Galbraith Jonathan Hadaway, [email protected] /+1 757-683-4233: Question of the Week

Is it more important for The Deputy Special Representative of the Secretary General (DSRSG) the United Nations to was removed from his post following a „private-turned-public‟ spat with his superior at fully support free, fair, the United Nations Assistance Mission in Afghanistan (UNAMA). The UN Office of the inclusive and Secretary General in New York issued a statement recalling UNAMA DSRSG Peter transparent elections, or Galbraith, stating the decision to end his appointment was in the “best interest of the to remain as neutral as mission.” The disagreement between Galbraith and United Nations Special possible and allow Representative of the Secretary General (SRSG) stemmed from the disputed 20 August presidential elections and how UNAMA should address the widespread Afghan electoral allegations of fraud. Galbraith reportedly led one camp in the mission that wanted to institutions to mature publicize all reports of fraud and electoral mismanagement. Eide held that although and handle their own UNAMA had collected significant amounts of information on potential fraud, it could affairs? not be passed on to the Afghan Electoral Complaints Commission (ECC) without verification and an official request. He accused Galbraith of going beyond what was Click here to answer legally afforded by the constitution in his quest to expose every individual incident of fraud.

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The dispute between the top UNAMA representatives reflects wider disagreement in the international community over how to proceed following the elections. Afghanistan is in the midst of an expanding conflict. The Commander of US and NATO forces in Afghanistan has submitted a new counterinsurgency strategy and called for more troops, setting a 12 month timeline to gain the initiative and reverse insurgent momentum. To implement portions of the new strategy a reliable Afghan partner is needed, yet uncertainty surrounding the elections is preventing that partner from materializing. The primary concern of some in the international community is to support the democratic process and make sure the Afghan elections are scrutinized to the same standard as western democracies, or as close as possible. Others feel “It can be argued that the that going through long, drawn-out electoral complaints procedures would only removal of Galbraith sends a succeed in undermining Afghanistan‟s stability at a critical stage in the conflict. Many confused message to the in the latter camp also see the re-election of as inevitable, and are Afghan population about the therefore reluctant to enter into a protracted confrontation with someone they anticipate having to work with in the coming months. In addition, if the electoral United Nations‟ role in their complaints period drags on past October and an eventual second round run-off is country.” called, winter weather will make it logistically impossible to organize.

It can be argued that the removal of Galbraith sends a confused message to the Afghan population about the United Nations‟ role in their country. UNAMA‟s mandate [S/RES/1806(2008)] emphasizes the importance of free, fair, inclusive and transparent elections to sustain the democratic progress. If there is a failure to examine all allegations of and see the democratic process through to its fair conclusion, it is questionable whether the mission is fully carrying out its mandate. On the flip side, there are also provisions in UNAMA‟s mandate which call for support to Afghan institutions, stressing the need for international efforts to provide technical assistance. These institutions include the Independent Electoral Commission (IEC) and the ECC, although the latter is not entirely Afghan, being headed by a five person commission which includes three internationals. It appears that the disputed elections have put the United Nations in a „Catch-22‟ of competing interests. While it is obligated to support free and fair elections, it has to walk a fine line in its support and guidance to Afghan electoral institutions like the IEC and ECC, so as not to appear to be interfering in an Afghan-led process. (Comments? Click Here)

Economic Stabilization Giuseppe Magliulo, [email protected] /+1 757-683-4275: Back to top The Bactrocera Cucurbitae parasite, commonly referred to as the melon fly, is attacking the melon crop in the North. The Director of Agriculture in Balkh has “The Director of Agriculture alleged that the parasite was voluntarily introduced to the province by drug lords to in Balkh has alleged that the persuade farmers to forego melons for more lucrative poppy cultivation. All attempts parasite was voluntarily made by the government to eliminate the parasite up to this point have failed, introduced to the province by leaving many farmers without the profits that usually carry them through the winter. drug lords to persuade ▪ At an Agricultural Research and Development Centre ceremony in Laghman province, the Director of Agriculture announced that saffron has been introduced to farmers to forego melons for the Mehtar Lam district with support from the Kansas National Guard Agribusiness more lucrative poppy Development Team. The first saffron harvest is expected to take place within 40 cultivation.” days. ▪ With the support of the United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO), a tourist information office has been established in Bamian

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province. A workshop was also organized at the end of September focused on the protection of monuments and the promotion of tourism in the province. New Zealand has also funded an eco-tourism programme which attempts to improve tourism with little negative effects on the environment or local population. If successful, the programme is expected to bolster the provincial economy and provide an income to portions of the local community. ▪ Saifodin Saihun, a lecturer on economics at University, presented several points on the economic situation of Afghanistan in a recent interview with Aina TV. He emphasised the lack of proper economic planning in the country, the control of the sector by foreigners and the need for improved infrastructure to take advantage of Afghanistan‟s favourable position in the region. He also noted the huge disparity between imports and exports (USD 5.7 billion compared to USD 1.7 billion respectively), highlighting the dependence of Afghanistan on foreign aid despite having suitable resources to supply food, water and livelihood opportunities for the entire population. The interview ended with an examination of the correlation between security and the economy, emphasising the fact that the restoration of security in the country is a precursor to a stable economy. Correction: In last week‟s Economic Stabilization input, it was reported that the Asian Development Bank and United Kingdom would extend a grant of approximately USD 90 million to the Emergency Irrigation Rehabilitation Project to develop irrigation systems and provide flood protection in Afghanistan. The grant will actually go to the Water Resources Development Investment Program, not to the Emergency Irrigation Rehabilitation Project. (Comments? Click Here)

Governance & Participation Amber Ramsey, [email protected] /+1 757-683-4368: Back to top

The sample audit of 3,498 suspect ballot boxes has begun in Kabul. The IEC is leading the audit, counting 10% of the ballots in each box. The winner is expected to be announced according to the findings, but with the audit process already behind schedule, the final results will not be available for another two weeks. ▪ Local Afghan leaders are questioning whether a centralised government is the best way forward for the country. Primarily due to obstacles faced during the 20 August elections, some “[T]he alleged widespread have suggested that Afghanistan needs to redistribute power from the central fraud, which for the most part government to the regions. They hold that the alleged widespread fraud, which for favoured the President, is a the most part favoured the President, is a clear indicator that Afghanistan isn‟t suited clear indicator that to have a strong presidential system with power rooted in the capital. ▪ Accusations Afghanistan isn‟t suited to made by former UNAMA DSRSG related to UN oversight of the have a strong presidential elections have led to a public outcry against what the Afghan population sees as international interference. Presidential runner-up has also argued system with power rooted in that the Galbraith accusations raise serious questions about the neutrality of the the capital.” United Nations. At a news conference on 01 October, Afghan parliamentarians accused the organization of bias, calling for renewed criminal investigations into the alleged electoral fraud. They argued that the probe carried out by the UN-backed ECC is invalid due to the bias of some of its officials. One lawmaker from Herat province went as far as suggesting that UN SRSG Kai Eide immediately depart the country ▪ Residents of Herat have apparently become so disappointed by the electoral gridlock that they have signalled they will not take part in a second round of voting if a run-off is called. Some residents of Kabul have also warned they will boycott a second round. With voter turnout for the 20 August 2009 elections significantly less than in 2004, a low second round turnout would appear to indicate further disenchantment with the electoral process. (Comments? Click Here)

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Humanitarian Assistance Giuseppe Magliulo, [email protected] /+1 757-683-4275: Back to top

A 05 October attack on the World Food Programme (WFP) office in Islamabad left five WFP staff dead. The incident underlines the unpredictable security situation in as well as the increased targeting of humanitarian agencies and staff. Across the border in Afghanistan, the Afghanistan NGO Safety Office (ANSO) reported that in the last three months, eight NGO workers were killed in security incidents compared to ten that were killed in the first six months of 2009. ▪ On 29 September, the second ministerial follow-up forum to the International Paris Conference entitled „Free Children from War‟ took place at UN headquarters in New York. During the event, eight additional countries endorsed the Paris Commitments, a United Nations declaration aimed at ending the use of children by armed groups. Eighty-four “Two Afghan teenagers countries now support the declaration, committing them to not only stop the believed to be from a recently recruitment of children, but also to support child soldiers with programmes that aid closed illegal transit camp in them in the process of reintegration. During a speech, the Secretary General‟s Special Calais, France were found in Representative for Children and Armed Conflict declared 2009 to be “a terrible year the engine compartment of a for children.” She stressed that in order to ameliorate the plight of children in conflict, bus attempting to travel to the international community must continue to address impunity and hold perpetrators accountable. UNICEF recently reported on the situation of children in Afghanistan, Britain.” citing several existing projects including Child Protection Action Networks (CPANs) and a Monitoring and Reporting Mechanism (MRM) for children affected by armed conflict violations. ▪ Two Afghan teenagers believed to be from a recently closed illegal transit camp in Calais, France were found in the engine compartment of a bus attempting to travel to Britain. A spokesperson for Refugee Action said the French government needs to take measures to properly address the side effects of the closure of the camp, as well as confront the issue of illegal immigration in the country. ▪ Flooding has destroyed 150 houses by the Amu River in Balkh province. The 900 people displaced by the flooding have sought shelter in tents or nearby communities. The floods have also affected the livelihoods of hundreds of local households due to the destruction of agricultural land and pastures. (Comments? Click Here)

Infrastructure Giuseppe Magliulo, [email protected] /+1 757-683-4275: Back to top

The Afghanistan Telecommunication Regulatory Authority (ATRA) has opened bidding “Several security incidents at USD 65 million on a licence for the use of its satellite frequency for a period of 15 involving construction years. Offers have been requested to be sent by 25 October. ▪ Four mobile phone projects have occurred operators have reached a total of 10.5 million telecom subscribers with a penetration throughout the country, rate of 36%. The growth is significant in light of the fact that only six years ago the country had just one mobile network, the Afghan Wireless Communications Company including the abduction of (AWCC). Information and data on the current telecommunications situation is five local employees of a available in a comprehensive market report entitled „Afghanistan - Telecoms, Mobile, construction company in Internet & Forecasts.‟ ▪ The European Union and Afghan government have signed a Herat and the destruction of Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) for the implementation of the second phase of a key bridge in Kunduz.” the Panj Amu River Basin Management Project. The programme includes the development of institutional capacities, management and protection of water resources, upper catchments conservation and reduction in precipitation run-off. ▪ Afghan Minister of Urban Development Yousef Pashtun and Finance Minister Omar

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Zakhilwal signed two financing agreements with the German Development Bank (KfW). Compared to 2008, the German contribution to the Afghanistan Reconstruction Trust Fund (ARTF) increased by EUR 5 million, and an additional EUR 6 million will go to the Extension of the Kabul Water Supply project. The latter aims to increase the number of households connected to the water system in Kabul from 450,000 to 1.4 million over two years. ▪ The Foreign Ministry of Poland is funding 30 projects through the Ghazni Provincial Reconstruction Team (PRT), totalling EUR 7 million. Among the activities planned are the construction of roads, public parks, school buildings, health clinics and dams. ▪ Several security incidents involving construction projects have occurred throughout the country, including the abduction of five local employees of a construction company in Herat and the destruction of a key bridge in Kunduz. Both incidents have been blamed on anti-government elements, although no claims of responsibility have been made. (Comments? Click Here)

Jus tice & Reconciliation Amber Ramsey, [email protected] /+1 757-683-4368: Back to top

Over the past six months, 145 people have been arrested by border police at Kabul International Airport on charges of smuggling and falsification of documents. According to officials, 27 kg of opium have been confiscated and 27 people will face further prosecution by the Attorney General‟s office. These arrests are seen as a major step in the fight against drug trafficking in the country. Over the same period, “Despite the fact that the 500 tonnes of narcotics were reportedly seized across the country by the Ministry of Counter-Narcotics. Deputy Minister of Counter-Narcotics Muhammad Daud has judicial system in Afghanistan in severely underdeveloped, the warned that “any smuggler seeking to use [Afghanistan as a transit point] will be dealt with sternly under Afghan law.” ▪ Despite the fact that the judicial system in new Elimination of Violence Afghanistan in severely underdeveloped, the new Elimination of Violence against against Women Act is set to be Women Act is set to be enacted, allowing women to prosecute their husbands for enacted, allowing women to abuse. It follows the controversial Shiite Personal Status Law which virtually

prosecute their husbands for legalized marital rape among the Shia minority, causing an international uproar abuse.” which forced the government to make revisions. While many women‟s rights advocates and international organizations argue that the law still denies women‟s fundamental human rights, the new Violence against Women legislation is seen as a small but welcome step towards giving women rights in their own homes. ▪ A new task force has been created to oversee detention operations in Afghan prisons after warnings by US and NATO Commander General Stanley McChrystal about the prison system. General Mark Martins has been named the deputy commander of the new task force which will attempt to align US detention procedures with Afghan criminal justice efforts. It is widely believed that detention facilities inside and outside Afghanistan are prime recruiting grounds for and al Qaeda insurgents, where hardened extremists are arbitrarily placed with petty criminals and sex offenders. (Comments? Click Here)

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Security Amer Hadaddin , [email protected]/+1 757-683-4302: Back to top

An insurgent attack on a US outpost in eastern Nuristan province resulted in the death of eight US soldiers and seven Afghan personnel. The outpost was slated to be closed in an effort to reposition troops to an area closer to populated centres. Forces on the ground reported an intense fight carried out by an aggressive group of fighters led by Dost Mohammed, a Taliban commander in the region. Members of “Members of the unit who the unit who repelled the attack characterized the assault as complex in nature, repelled the attack indicating coordinated methods and a sophisticated array of weaponry. Observers witnessed the Taliban using assault rifles, heavy machine guns, rocket-propelled characterized the assault as grenades, rockets and mortars. According to western news sources, 13 Afghan complex in nature, indicating police were captured by the Taliban. ▪ In a speech given at a British think tank, coordinated methods and a Commander of US and NATO forces in Afghanistan General Stanley McChrystal made sophisticated array of it clear that it is likely the Afghan war will be lost if additional troops are not weaponry.” deployed. The head of US Central Command General drew parallels to the war, suggesting that the US push Afghans to take responsibility for security and governance in their own country. Petraeus‟ statement follows closely with the findings and final recommendations made by McChrystal in his recent review of the situation in Afghanistan. ▪ Over the past two months, the Pakistani military has internally deliberated on a strategy designed to hit the heart of the Taliban stronghold in South Waziristan. Historically, the military has been met with stiff resistance in the area, enabling the Taliban to regroup and reinforce. The Pakistani military is attempting to take advantage of the leadership vacuum resulting from Baitullah Mehsud‟s death in August by preparing a military offensive. Military experts indicate that an offensive strike in South Waziristan prior to the onset of winter would severely weaken the Taliban. (Comments? Click Here)

Social Well-Being Giuseppe Magliulo, [email protected] /+1 757-683-4275: Back to top

The International Development Association (IDA - part of the World Bank) has “A comment made by two finalized the contribution of USD 30 million for the „Second Education Quality Pashtun boys to a young Improvement Program (2008-2012), costing a total of USD 186.7 million. The Uzbek girl sparked ethnic project, launched in 2001, has specifically benefited girls, who in 2004 comprised clashes in the North, only 839,000 of school enrolment, compared to 2.2 million in 2008. The program is also supported by the United States Agency for International Development (USAID - believed to be simmering USD 22 million) and the Afghanistan Reconstruction Fund (USD 134.7 million). following the country‟s Despite the positive increase in school enrolment, most students face a „glass ceiling‟ recent presidential and due to the limited number of universities and low capacity of existing facilities. provincial council elections.” According to officials, there are only approximately 20,000 places available at universities in Afghanistan, leaving tens of thousands of promising young students unable to gain higher education. ▪ A comment made by two Pashtun boys to a young Uzbek girl sparked ethnic clashes in the North, believed to be simmering following the country‟s recent presidential and provincial council elections. The rioting resulted in the deaths of two people, with 30 others injured. This escalation of violence highlights deep divisions in the region, coupled with the deteriorating

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security situation which makes it increasingly inaccessible to foreigners and aid organizations. ▪ Despite international efforts, according to the latest UN Human Development Report 2009, Afghanistan is still one of the lowest ranking countries in terms of living standards and life expectancy. Despite an USD 36 billion investment by the international community over the past eight years, development experts hold that “[t]he worsening conflict, poor investment in human development areas, wasteful and ineffective international assistance, and a lack of capacity to implement development programmes” have held the country back. (Comments? Click Here)

Last Week’s Question Back to top

Considering Provincial Councils are directly elected representative bodies, should they be given more power to determine budgets and directly select projects that benefit their electorate?

In Afghanistan, Provincial Councils (PCs) are a new body; many members of PCs are not professional and have not secured votes from all districts of their respective provinces. They have secured votes from just one specific area or tribe. In the 2009 elections, due to fraud, many warlords, criminals, gangsters, human rights violators and smugglers have found their way into the PCs. If they are given more power for directly selecting projects, it will be another catastrophe, because tribal, political and ethnic bias will dominate and increase the chances of corruption and tribal conflicts. Yes, I do agree to empower them in the sense of monitoring. If the PCs are provided with specific budgets for calling jirgas to solve inter-tribal, political and personal issues in their respective provinces, it will have a positive impact. --Anonymous

It could be beneficial, but only in the framework of strengthening development in the entire country. On the other hand, conditions among the provinces are different. Some provinces have high ambitions, but due to certain circumstances (low provincial development and poor capability to implement projects) there is often no capacity to use the designated budget. Finally, giving the PCs more power would not facilitate overall country development.

--Anonymous

YES, and here is the reason why - centralized government in this country is not working and history has shown it will not work. They will need help and oversight from the international community but I believe it is possible.

--Anonymous

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