BUDGET BACKGROUND and MEDIUM TERM FRAMEWORK 2012/13 – 2014/15 Table of Contents
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BUDGET BACKGROUND AND MEDIUM TERM FRAMEWORK 2012/13 – 2014/15 Table of Contents List of Tables ........................................................................................................................... iii List of Acronyms and Abbreviations ........................................................................................ iv PREFACE ............................................................................................................................... vii Chapter I ................................................................................................................................... 1 BACKGROUND ....................................................................................................................... 1 1.1 Introduction ............................................................................................................................................. 1 1.2 Organisation of the Report .................................................................................................................... 1 Chapter II ................................................................................................................................. 3 THE MACROECONOMIC FRAMEWORK........................................................................... 3 2.1 Recent Macroeconomic Development ............................................................................................... 3 A: Annual GDP Growth and Sector Contributions ............................................................................ 3 B: Semi-Annual GDP Growth and Sector Contributions ................................................................. 4 C: Price Development ............................................................................................................................... 5 D: Money Credit ........................................................................................................................................ 7 E: External Trade ...................................................................................................................................... 8 F: Fiscal Performance ............................................................................................................................. 10 2.2 Macroeconomic Targets and Budget Frame for 2012/13 – 2014/15 .......................................... 12 A: global Economic growth and Outlook ........................................................................................... 12 B: Macroeconomic Targets .................................................................................................................... 13 C: Budget Frame for 2012/13 – 2014/15............................................................................................ 15 Chapter III .............................................................................................................................. 17 BUDGET PERFORMANCE FOR 2010/11 – 2011/12 ........................................................... 17 3.1 Performance of The Five Year Development Plan 2011/12 ........................................................ 17 3.2 Performance of MKUKUTA II ......................................................................................................... 19 A: Cluster I: Growth and Reduction of Income Poverty .................................................................. 20 B: Cluster II: Improvement in Quality of Life and Social Wellbeing .............................................. 20 C: Cluster III: Good Governance and Accountability ....................................................................... 21 D: Cross-Cutting Issues .......................................................................................................................... 22 3.3 Performance of Key Sectors ............................................................................................................... 25 A: Agriculture Sector............................................................................................................................... 25 B: Transport Sector ................................................................................................................................. 27 C: Education Sector ................................................................................................................................ 37 D: Health Sector ...................................................................................................................................... 39 E: Water and Sanitation .......................................................................................................................... 41 F: Energy and Mineral ............................................................................................................................ 42 G: Judiciary ............................................................................................................................................... 43 3.4 Performance of D-by-D Policy .......................................................................................................... 44 Chapter IV .............................................................................................................................. 47 MEDIUM TERM EXPENDITURE OUTLOOK FOR 2012/13 – 14/15 .............................. 47 ii 4.1 Expenditure Outlook for The Five Year Development Plan ........................................................ 47 4.2 Expenditure Outlook for MKUKUTA II ........................................................................................ 52 A: Cluster I ............................................................................................................................................... 53 B: Cluster II .............................................................................................................................................. 54 C: Cluster III ............................................................................................................................................ 54 D: Cross-Cutting Issues .......................................................................................................................... 55 4.3 Expenditure Outlook for Key Sectors .............................................................................................. 57 A: Agriculture Sector............................................................................................................................... 57 B: Transport Sector ................................................................................................................................. 57 C: Education Sector ................................................................................................................................ 58 D: Health Sector ...................................................................................................................................... 59 E: Water and Sanitation .......................................................................................................................... 59 F: Energy and Minerals ........................................................................................................................... 60 G: Judiciary ............................................................................................................................................... 61 4.4 Expenditure Outlook for D-by-D Policy ......................................................................................... 61 Chapter V ................................................................................................................................ 65 CONCLUSION AND WAYFORWARD ................................................................................ 65 Annexes.................................................................................................................................... 67 List of Tables Table 1: Real GDP Growth ........................................................................................................ 3 Table 2: Monthly Inflation Rate (Jan –Dec, 2011) ..................................................................... 6 Table 3: Trends in Selected Macroeconomic Indicators, 2003 - 2011 ...................................... 11 Table 4: Global GDP Growth Rates and Projections .............................................................. 13 Table 5: Government Budgetary Operations .......................................................................... 16 Table 6: Trunk Roads Quarterly Physical Plan and Achievements ........................................ 29 Table 7: Regional Roads Quarterly Physical Plan and Achievements ................................... 33 iii List of Acronyms and Abbreviations AIDs Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome ARVs Antiretroviral ASDP Agricultural Sector Development Programme BBMTF Budget Background and Medium Term Framework BOO Build-Own Operate BOOT Build-Own-Operate-Transfer BOT Bank of Tanzania CD Community Development CDTIs Community Development Training Institutes CFS Consolidated Fund Services CMT Council Management Team CNG Compressed Natural Gas CPI Consumer Price Index CSOs Civil Society Organizations CTC Care And Treatment Clinics DADG District Agriculture Development Grant DADPs District Agriculture Development Projects D-by-D Decentralization by Devolution DCC District Consultative Meetings DPs Development Partners DRC