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Inclusive Social Contracts in Fragile States in Transition

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Inclusive Social Contracts in Fragile States in Transition i n s t i t u t e f o r i n t e g r at e d t r a n s i t i o n s i n s t i t u t e f o r i n t e g r at e d t r a n s i t i o n s About IFIT AO QC, Chancellor of Australian National University Based in Barcelona and supported by a wide range and former Foreign Minister; Melanie Greenberg, of international donors, IFIT is a non-governmental President and CEO of the Alliance for Peacebuild- organisation dedicated to helping fragile and ing; Emmanuel Gyimah-Boadi, Executive Director conflict-affected states achieve more sustainable of Afrobarometer and the Centre for Democracy transitions out of war or authoritarianism. IFIT’s core and Development in Ghana; Latifa Jbabdi, women’s work is to serve as an expert resource on integrated rights leader in Morocco and the Arab world; Inclusive Social Contracts in Fragile States in Transition policy solutions for locally-led efforts to break cycles Bassma Kodmani, Executive Director of the Arab of conflict or repression. Reform Initiative; Ahmed Rashid, Journalist and author; Carne Ross, Executive Director of Indepen- Board of Directors and International dent Diplomat; Nasser H. Saidi, President of Nasser Strengthening the Advisory Group Saidi & Associates and former Minister of Economy and Trade and Minister of Industry of Lebanon; David Gardner, International Affairs Editor and Nathalie Tocci, Deputy Director of Istituto Affari Building Blocks of Success Associate Editor of the Financial Times, serves as Internazionali, Editor of The International Spectator the President of IFIT’s Board of Directors; Helen and Special Adviser to EU HRVP Federica Mogherini; seth kaplan, managing editor Brewer as Vice President; Elisabeth de Nadal as Rafael Vilasanjuan, Director of IS Global Think Tank Secretary; Leslie Vinjamuri as Member; and Alex and former General Secretary of Médecins Sans Boraine as Honorary Member. Frontières (MSF) International; Jennifer Widner, Pro- The Institute’s International Advisory Council in- fessor of Politics and International Affairs, Woodrow cludes Hakan Altinay, President of the Global Civics Wilson School, Princeton University and Director of Academy; Maria Livanos Cattaui, former Secretary the Innovations for Successful Societies program; General of the International Chamber of Commerce; Oscar Vilhena Vieira, Dean of the School of Law of Sujit Choudhry, I. Michael Heyman Professor of Law the Getulio Vargas Foundation; and Jon Greenwald, and Founding Director of the Center for Constitu- former US diplomat and former Vice President at tional Transitions; Professor the Hon. Gareth Evans International Crisis Group. cover photo iStock.com/Pramote2015 Institute for Integrated Transitions For more information about IFIT, please visit the Institute’s website: Sant Pau – Recinte Modernista www.ifit-transitions.org C/ Sant Antoni Maria Claret, 167 08025 Barcelona Spain info@ifit-transitions.org September 2017 Table of Contents Introduction .......................................................................................................... 5 Part I: Opening Considerations 1. Fragility: Understanding its Sources ............................................................... 7 2. Transitions: Opportunities and Risks .............................................................. 11 3. The Three Building Blocks ............................................................................... 14 Social Covenants, Inclusive Policies, Institutionalisation Part II: Case Studies Introduction .......................................................................................................... 26 4. Transitions in North Africa: Tunisia and Libya ................................................ 28 By Monica Marks 5. Transitions in Latin America: Colombia and Guatemala.................................. 50 By Roddy Brett 6. Transitions in Eastern Europe: Ukraine and Macedonia ................................ 71 By Dane Taleski 7. Transitions in South Asia: Sri Lanka and Nepal ................................................ 91 By Shobhakar Budhathoki and Aruni Jayakody Part III: Conclusions and Recommendations 8. Comparative Analysis: Lessons Learned .......................................................... 112 9. Policy Recommendations ................................................................................ 120 Annex 1: Notes and Acknowledgements .............................................................. 124 Annex 2: Author Bios ............................................................................................. 125 Introduction Dozens of countries have experienced transitions out of armed conflict or authoritarian rule in the past four decades, yet few have met expectations. Fewer still have produced inclusive social contracts to guide their future. Insecurity, weak institutions and competition for power and resources often create a zero-sum dynamic between groups, overwhelming attempts to forge a new social contract. Nowhere has this been more the case than in fragile states. There has been notable progress among policymakers in recent years to understand the unique challenges fragile states face and strategise how they might be overcome. There is, for example, a greater focus on issues such as inclusive politics,1 societal dynamics2 and local solutions. In-depth country assessments are now considered essential for developing a clear roadmap to reduce fragility.3 However, increases in understanding have not been matched by improvements in practice; weak- nesses persist in how fragility is defined, flagged, assessed and addressed. Too often, the wrong issues are emphasised, possible trouble spots go unidentified, lessons gained from assessments are unused, and links between fragility and conflict cycles are underestimated. Building upon the New Deal for Engagement in Fragile States and other peacebuilding documents, this publication examines an approach more rooted in the societal and institutional dynamics that cause fragility than is normally emphasised. These dynamics frame how more formal institutions and processes work and thus determine the quality of government, inclusiveness of the economic and political systems, trajectory of a political transition and whether violence or authoritarianism will re- appear. It breaks new ground in the issues it examines, the dynamics it emphasises and the policy recommendations it offers. The study that lies at its heart places particular emphasis on periods of transition out of armed conflict or repressive rule. It is these critical junctures when – in ideal cases – a window of opportunity exists for disrupting and gradually overcoming the harmful underlying societal and institutional prob- lems that too often condemn fragile states to repeat cycles of authoritarian rule, violent conflict or both. It focuses in particular on processes of social contract formation, which have rightly become a major concern of the global peacebuilding community (e.g., Peacebuilding and Statebuilding Goals and Sustainable Development Goal 16 on peace, justice and strong institutions). However, in contrast to most studies and practice, it attaches less importance to formal vertical processes and institutions and more to the larger informal and horizontal drivers of fragility. It assumes that while the state- society relationship is obviously important, the society-society one is at least as relevant, as the per- ception and reality of a state’s effectiveness and legitimacy are strongly and directly influenced by the dynamics of the society in which it is embedded. The central topic thus is how to strengthen the building blocks of an inclusive social contract in fragile states during times of political and post-conflict transition. This involves assessing why and the degree to which the following combination of mechanisms should work in conjunction with each oth- er to facilitate attainment of a durable and inclusive social contract in these states: 1) the bringing together of different groups around a social covenant that bridges social divides and creates a greater common sense of nationhood; 2) the deliberate adoption of inclusiveness as a guiding principle across a broad range of policy areas (politics, education, rule of law, security, economics, culture); and 3) the establishment or strengthening of measures that enforce political commitments and reduce biases in how institutions work. 1 New Deal for Engagement in Fragile States, http://www.pbsbdialogue.org/en/new-deal/new-deal-principles/. 2 Alexandre Marc et al., Societal Dynamics and Fragility: Engaging Societies in Responding to Fragile Situations (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2013). 3 International Dialogue on Peacebuilding and Statebuilding (IDPS), “Guidance Note On Fragility Assessments,” May 2014, 1-2. Inclusive Social Contracts in Fragile States in Transition: Strengthening the Building Blocks of Success | 6 The focus is less on each individual mechanism, more on how all three interact, with the result of either reinforcing or weakening each other and the social contract formation process as a whole. Combining in-depth expert interviews with extensive desk and field research, the study examines and contrasts positive and negative lessons from specific transitions that occurred in four regional pairings of cases. Each pairing reflects varying degrees of fragility: 1) Tunisia’s and Libya’s respective transitions from 2011 to present; 2) Colombia’s transition from 1991 to present and Guatemala’s transition from 1985 to present; 3) Ukraine’s transition from 2014 to present
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