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GCF) and Foreign Aid in Nepal International Journal of Academic Research ISSN: 2348-7666; Vol.4, Issue-1(8), January, 2017 Impact Factor: 4.535; Email: [email protected] Relationship among GDP, Gross Capital Formation (GCF) and Foreign Aid in Nepal Arjun Kumar Baral Associate Professor of Economics, Tribhuvan University, Nepal Abstract The present paper aims at examining the long run relationship among the macroeconomic variables GDP, GCF and Foreign Aid in Nepalese economy. Nepal has been receiving foreign aid from both bilateral and multilateral sources since last few decades. India has been participating actively in Nepal’s overall economic development including the development of physical and social infrastructure since 1951. The paper focuses on both descriptive and time series econometric analysis for the period 1975- 2014. The econometric method includes testing for stationarity (unit root test), Johansen’s cointegration test, FMOLS and residual diagnostic test for FMOLS. Though foreign aid is playing a vital role for overall economic development of Nepal, the relationship between foreign aid and GDP could not be established due to stationarity problem. The Johansen’s Cointegration test implies that there exists a long run equilibrium relationship between GDP and GCF. Finally, the FMOLS implies that a ten percent increase in GCF causes Nepalese GDP to increase by 6.3 percent where foreign aid is taken as an additional deterministic regressor. Keywords: Foreign Aid, GDP, GCF, FMOLS, Cointegration, Nepal 1. Introduction: econometric analysis for concerned variables. Finally, section 6 concludes the Nepal, a least developed country in overall findings of the present work. south Asia, has been receiving foreign aid 2. Literature Review: Bista from both bilateral and multilateral (2006) concluded that donors should sources since last few decades. Despite conduct more research to country- the tremendous efforts from this part, specific problems and attributes, such as the economic growth has not been the socio-cultural factors before they accelerated so far as it is expected. The disburse any kind of aid. In case of main objective of the present paper is to Nepal, the country would be better off if investigate the relationship among GDP, the donors assume exclusive control over foreign aid and Gross capital formation the project and work directly with the (GCF) in case of Nepalese economy. It local bodies, NGOs or other consulting also analyses some dimensions of the companies, rather than the government. contribution of Indian aid for Nepal’s economic prosperity. The next section of Devkota ( 2008) found that per capita the paper reviews the findings of income and foreign aid have been research works on this particular issue. negatively related using the panel data Section 3 concerns to present a brief set over the period of 1980-2006 of scenario of foreign aid from India to developing south Asian countries. While Nepal. Section 4 presents the source of aid has been positively related to data and methodological issues. Section 5 population and external debt, the focuses on the findings from the negative coefficients on per capita GDP www.ijar.org.in 1 International Journal of Academic Research ISSN: 2348-7666; Vol.4, Issue-1(8), January, 2017 Impact Factor: 4.535; Email: [email protected] suggests that Donor aid favors south analyzed the effects of foreign aid on the Asian countries in allocating aid, economic growth of developing countries supporting the hypothesis that recipient based on the annual data on a group of needs do have an effect on foreign aid 85 developing countries covering Asia, allocation. Africa, and Latin America and the Bhattarai (2009) used the cointegration Caribbean for the period 1980-2007. and error correction mechanism to They found that foreign aid has mixed investigate the effectiveness of aid in effects on economic growth in developing Nepal during the period 1983-2002 by countries. Chinecherem and Ezenekwe examining the long-run relationship (2015) carried out an empirical analysis between aid and per capita real GDP. He of the impact of foreign aid on capital found that foreign aid has a positive and generation in Nigeria ranging from 1980- statistically significant effect on per 2013. Linear regression was adopted in capita real GDP in the long-run. the method with the application of Fasanya and Onakoya(2012) analyzed Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) the impact of foreign aid on economic technique. The results derived showed growth in Nigeria during the period of that foreign aid contributed negatively to 1970-2010. Their findings show that aid capital generation in Nigeria and the flows has significant impact on economic accompanying variable which was growth in Nigeria: domestic investment external debt also has a negative increased in response to aid flows and contribution to capital generation. population growth has no significant effect on aid flows. Basnet ( 2013) 3. Indian Aid to Nepal: A examined the role of foreign aid on Glance: India, one of the economic domestic savings and economic growth in powers of the world, is the closest South Asian countries - Bangladesh, partner of Nepal’s socio-economic India, Nepal, Pakistan, and Sri-Lanka - development from the history. The by using simultaneous equation system program of India-Nepal economic in which growth and savings are jointly cooperation was launched in 1951. The determined. The results indicate that aid objective of this program was and has a positive and significant effect on remains to supplement the efforts of the the growth rates of the five nations Government of Nepal in the national studied during 1960 to 2008. Hamid Ali development of the country. India’s (2013) used Johansen Cointegration test assistance program in Nepal is guided by and Vector Error Correction Model the vision that alongside progress in (VECM) to find the effectiveness of political process in Nepal, it is equally foreign aid in promoting economic important to ensure that economic growth in Egypt, the paper finds a deliverables, particularly in the areas of negative and significant impact of foreign education, health and infrastructure, aid on economic growth in the long and must reach the people without any pre- short run. Cecen, Xiao & Adhikari conditions in a smooth, quick and (2014) investigated the dynamics of unencumbered manner. Towards this economic development in Nepal in the end, Government of India is providing context of foreign aid, institutional technical and financial assistance for change, and political instability. multi-sector development of Nepal Ekanayake and Chatrna (2014) (Indian Embassy) www.ijar.org.in 2 International Journal of Academic Research ISSN: 2348-7666; Vol.4, Issue-1(8), January, 2017 Impact Factor: 4.535; Email: [email protected] The following table presents a bird’s eye Education, Health and Community view on the no. of projects that reflects Development. the Indian aid to Nepal. 4. Data and Methodology Table 1: Small and Large/Medium Present paper utilizes the annual data of Indian Projects to Nepal GDP, Foreign Aid and Gross Capital Formation (GCF) over the period 1975- 2014 and the concerned data are derived No. of SmallLarge & Total from Economic Survey 2015/16. The projects as Medium variables are transformed into logarithm on and hereafter these are denoted by 31.3.2004 16 10 26 respectively in level 31.3.2005 56 22 78 forms and by in first 31.3.2006 100 24 124 differences respectively. 31.3.2007 174 26 200 Fully Modified Ordinary Least Square 31.3.2008 247 28 275 (FMOLS) is the main econometric 31.3.2009 294 30 324 methodology used in this paper to 31.3.2010 340 30 370 examine the impact of foreign aid and 31.3.2011 366 35 401 gross capital formation on Nepalese 31.3.2012 396 35 431 economic growth. First, ADF unit root 31.3.2013 425 35 460 test is performed to check the 31.3.2014 450 35 485 stationarity of the variables. After the ADF root is performed, present paper 31.10.2014462 35 497 employs Johansen’s Cointegration test to 30.11.2014466 36 502 examine the long run relationship 31.05.2015474 36 510 between and among the variables under Source: Indian Embassy to Nepal, 2016 study. While performing Johansen’s Cointegration test, the series known to From the table, it can be observed that be non-stationary is used. Finally, India is supporting for Large/ Medium FMOLS has been applied to examine the and Small Projects. But India is focusing impact of foreign aid and GCF on towards small projects in recent years. economic growth of Nepalese economy The Small Development Projects are with the concerned time series known to implemented on the basis of a be stationary. Memorandum of Understanding ( MoU) 4.1 ADF Unit Root Test signed between Government of India ( Before carrying out any OLS regression, GoI) and Government of Nepal ( GoN) in it is imperative to test the stationarity of November 2003 and now it is extended the concerned time series variables. The 5th August, 2017. The projects whose cost time series is said to be stationary when is less than 0.7 million US dollar (IRs it does not contain unit root. If the time 3.125 crores or NRs 5 crores) are series contains unit root, it can said to be categorized as small projects. These non-stationary series and the regression projects focused on areas of results are spurious when non-stationary Infrastructure Development and series are employed in the OLS Capacity Building in the areas of regression. There are different methods www.ijar.org.in 3 International Journal of Academic Research ISSN: 2348-7666; Vol.4, Issue-1(8), January, 2017 Impact Factor: 4.535; Email: [email protected] to test unit root. However, the present take into account of the fact that study uses the ADF unit root test.
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