Integrated Flood Risk Analysis and Management Methodologies Scenario Analysis THE IMPACT OF EXTREME PRECIPITATION PATTERNS ON THE FLOOD PEAKS ALONG THE TISZA RIVER Date March 2007 Report Number T22-07-03 Revision Number 1_3_P01 Task Leader VITUKI, Budapest FLOODsite is co-funded by the European Community Sixth Framework Programme for European Research and Technological Development (2002-2006) FLOODsite is an Integrated Project in the Global Change and Eco-systems Sub-Priority Start date March 2004, duration 5 Years Document Dissemination Level PU Public PU PP Restricted to other programme participants (including the Commission Services) RE Restricted to a group specified by the consortium (including the Commission Services) CO Confidential, only for members of the consortium (including the Commission Services) Co-ordinator: HR Wallingford, UK Project Contract No: GOCE-CT-2004-505420 Project website: www.floodsite.net Scenario Analysis M22.2 Contract No:GOCE-CT-2004-505420 DOCUMENT INFORMATION Scenario Analysis, The Impact of Extreme Precipitation Patterns on Title the Flood Peaks along the Tisza River Authors Balázs Gauzer, Gábor Bálint, Péter Bartha Péter Bakonyi, András Bárdossy, András Csík, Miklós Domokos, Contributors Zoltán Kling, József Szilágyi Distribution Public Document Reference T22-07-03 DOCUMENT HISTORY Date Revision Prepared by Organisation Approved by Notes 22/03/07 1_1_P21 GAB VITUKI Initial draft 22/01/08 1_2_P21 GAB VITUKI Final 15/05/09 1_3_P01 J Rance HR Formatting for publication Wallingford 27/05/09 1_3_P01 Paul Samuels HR Allocated agains correct Milestone Wallingford M22.2 not D22.3 ACKNOWLEDGEMENT The work described in this publication was supported by the European Community’s Sixth Framework Programme through the grant to the budget of the Integrated Project FLOODsite, Contract GOCE-CT- 2004-505420. DISCLAIMER This document reflects only the authors’ views and not those of the European Community. This work may rely on data from sources external to the members of the FLOODsite project Consortium. Members of the Consortium do not accept liability for loss or damage suffered by any third party as a result of errors or inaccuracies in such data. The information in this document is provided “as is” and no guarantee or warranty is given that the information is fit for any particular purpose. The user thereof uses the information at its sole risk and neither the European Community nor any member of the FLOODsite Consortium is liable for any use that may be made of the information. © Members of the FLOODsite Consortium T22_07_03_Scenario_Analysis_D22_3_V1_3_P01 15 May 2009 ii Scenario Analysis M22.2 Contract No:GOCE-CT-2004-505420 SUMMARY In the course of the present work, it was investigated, what a hydrological situation would be created in the catchment area of the Tisza River by the occurrence of certain meteorological and hydrological scenarios, having real chances to happen. In the course of our investigations, from among the great Tisza floods experienced during the last decades, that of 1970 (differing in many aspects from all other floods), that of 1998 (triggered mainly by precipitations of high intensity) and that of 1999 (originating mostly from snowmelt) were selected for a more detailed analysis. – As a first step, the mathematical models adopted for carrying out the simulation investigations were briefly presented. – Thereafter, a brief description of the river system investigated followed and the floods occurring therein during the the last decades were surveyed. – In the next chapter, the generating causes and the main features of the floods of 1970, 1998, and 1999 were analysed. – Finally, the situations resulting, according to our calculations, from the various scenarios were presented in detail. Prior to investigate the selected scenarios, it was intended to demonstrate the reliability of the simulation model to be adopted therefore by the computative reconstruction of the water level and discharge time series of the three selected flood waves. There was a very good agreement between the observed time series and their corresponding ones produced by adopting the simulation model, particularly concerning the peak water levels, most important for the present investigation. Thus the adoptability of the mathematical model was demonstrated. This report contributes to Milestone M22.2 of Task 22 of FLOODsite. T22_07_03_Scenario_Analysis_D22_3_V1_3_P01 15 May 2009 iii Scenario Analysis M22.2 Contract No:GOCE-CT-2004-505420 CONTENTS Document Information ii Document History ii Acknowledgement ii Disclaimer ii Summary iii Contents v 1. Introduction.........................................................................................................................................1 1.1 General ...................................................................................................................................1 1.2 A brief presentation of the river system investigated, and the most important floods on the Tisza River during the last decades ........................................................................................3 1.2.1 The Tisza Basin .........................................................................................................3 1.2.2 Hydrological features of the flood of 1970 ...............................................................6 1.2.3 Hydrological features of the flood of 1998 ...............................................................8 1.2.4 Hydrological features of the flood of 1999 .............................................................10 2. Investigation of Weather Patterns Leading to Floods .......................................................................13 Type West (W) .....................................................................................................................13 Type West with peripheric storm (Wp) ................................................................................14 Zonal type (Z).......................................................................................................................14 Moving Mediterranean Cyclone (M)....................................................................................14 Central Type (C)...................................................................................................................14 Western Cyclone Type (CW) ................................................................................................15 Type ‘Cold Cell’ (H) ............................................................................................................16 3. The VITUKI – NHFS hydrological modelling system .....................................................................23 3.1 The HOOLV Snowmelt Model ............................................................................................23 3.1.1 The energy balance method and the temperature index method .............................24 3.1.2 Calculating of the energy terms...............................................................................25 3.2 The TAPI Rainfall-Runoff Model ........................................................................................28 3.3 The Discrete Linear Cascade Model.....................................................................................30 4. Analysis of the Consequences of Hypothetical Meteorological and Hydrological Scenarios ..........34 4.1 Overview of the flood waves investigated............................................................................34 4.2 Overview of the scenarios investigated ................................................................................36 4.2.1 Scenario 1: No levee failures upstream of Tiszabecs during the flood of 1998 ......37 4.2.2 Scenario 2: No levee failures along the Szamos River in 1970...............................37 4.2.3 Scenario 3: During the flood of 1970, no levee failures along the Szamos river, and the flood wave of the Szamos reaches the mouth 12 hours later than observed39 4.2.4 Scenario 4: The intensive precipitation activity preceding the flood wave of 1998 covers the whole sub-catchment of the Tiszabecs cross-section.....................40 4.2.5 Scenario 5 The intensive precipitation activity preceding the flood wave of 1998 covers, both the sub-catchments of the Upper Tisza river, and also that of the Szamos river....................................................................................................43 4.2.6 Scenario 6 The Upper Tisza flood wave of November 1998 coincides with the flood wave of the river network of the Bodrog River .....................................45 4.2.7 Scenario 7 The precipitation amount over the sub-catchment of the Tisza upstream of the Tokaj gauge exceeds that of in March 1999 .........................................48 4.2.8 Scenario 8 The intensive precipitation activity preceding the flood wave of November 1998 covers also catchments of the Körös and/or Maros rivers....54 5. Conclusions.......................................................................................................................................60 T22_07_03_Scenario_Analysis_D22_3_V1_3_P01 15 May 2009 v Scenario Analysis M22.2 Contract No:GOCE-CT-2004-505420 5.1 Review of Scenario Analysis................................................................................................60 5.2 Basic results linked to different hydrometeorological situations..........................................60 5.3 Basic results of the investigations