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Connections of Civil War and Communal Violence: the Case of Uganda

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Connections of Civil War and Communal Violence: the Case of Uganda UNDERSTANDING THE COMPLEX INTER- CONNECTIONS OF CIVIL WAR AND COMMUNAL VIOLENCE: THE CASE OF UGANDA Getrude Isimon 509974-L-bw-isimon Processed on: 1-5-2017 PDF page: 1 The dissertation is part of the research programme of CERES, Research School for Resource Studies for Development. The research was funded by the Netherlands Fellowship Programme (NFP) © Getrude Isimon, 2017 Cover design: Canva designs All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted, in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise, without the prior permission of the author. ISBN 978-90-6490-073-0 509974-L-bw-isimon Processed on: 1-5-2017 PDF page: 2 UNDERSTANDING THE COMPLEX INTER- CONNECTIONS OF CIVIL WAR AND COMMUNAL VIOLENCE: THE CASE OF UGANDA INZICHT IN DE COMPLEXE VERWEVENHEID VAN BURGEROORLOGEN EN SEKTARISCH GEWELD: HET GEVAL VAN OEGANDA Thesis to obtain the degree of Doctor from the Erasmus University Rotterdam by command of the Rector Magnificus Professor dr H.A.P. Pols and in accordance with the decision of the Doctorate Board The public defence shall be held on Friday the 2nd of June, 2017 at 16:00 hrs by Getrude Isimon born in Mbale, Uganda 509974-L-bw-isimon Processed on: 1-5-2017 PDF page: 3 Doctoral Committee Doctoral Dissertation Supervisor Prof. dr. M. A.R.M. Salih Other members Prof. dr. L. Manger, University of Bergen Dr. G. Asiimwe, Makerere University Dr. D. Zarkov Co-supervisor Dr H.M. Hintjens 509974-L-bw-isimon Processed on: 1-5-2017 PDF page: 4 Dedication I dedicate this thesis to my late elder brother, William Odele (1981-2013), to my dear parents, Mr. David Hannington Okalanyi and Mrs. Grace Elizabeth Kakayi Okalanyi, and to my loving brothers and sisters as well. I am grateful for their resourceful support and love that has brought me this far. And to my lovely daughter Nambuya Elizabeth Isimon who has endured several years without motherly love and care. I love you. 509974-L-bw-isimon Processed on: 1-5-2017 PDF page: 5 Contents LIST OF TABLES, FIGURES, MAPS AND APPENDICES IX ACRONYMS X BACKGROUND TO THE STUDY 1 1.1 The research problem 1 1.2 Violent conflict in Uganda 4 METHODS OF INQUIRY AND FIELD EXPERIENCES 12 2.1 Introduction 12 2.2 Research methods 12 2.3 The ontological and epistemological stance 13 2.4 Steps taken before the field exercise 16 2.5 Methods of inquiry 18 2.5.1 Focus Group Discussions (FGDs) 19 2.5.2 In-depth semi-structured interviews 22 2.6 Sampling criteria for the study 25 2.6.1 North eastern Uganda: Field locations 26 2.6.2 Northern Uganda: Fieldwork Locations 28 2.7 Field challenges and limitations to the study during fieldwork 30 2.7.1 Challenges faced in the north eastern region 31 2.7.2 Challenges faced in the northern region 36 2.8 Data analysis, interpretation and reporting 41 2.9 Conclusion 42 vi 509974-L-bw-isimon Processed on: 1-5-2017 PDF page: 6 Contents vii CONCEPTUALISATION OF VIOLENT CONFLICTS 44 CIVIL WAR AND BEYOND IN NORTHERN UGANDA 73 4.1 Introduction 73 4.2 The Colonial era 73 4.4 The rise of the NRA 82 4.7 The LRA in Sudan 101 4.8 LRA Incursions back into Teso and Lango 104 4.9 Conclusion 105 COMMUNAL VIOLENCE AND BEYOND IN KARAMOJA 106 5.1 Introduction 106 5.2 The origin and development of conflicts in Karamoja 106 5.2.2 The Obote 1 era (1962-1971) 113 5.2.3 The Idi Amin era (I971-1979) 115 5.2.4 The Obote II, Tito Okello Lutwa, regime (I980-1985) 119 5.2.5 The NRA/M - Museveni era 129 5.3 Conclusion 132 A CRITIQUE OF THE CONCEPTUALISATION: CIVIL WAR AND COMMUNAL VIOLENCE 133 6.1 Introduction 133 6.2 A critique using UCDP datasets 133 6.3 The complex “spill over effect” between these conflicts. 145 6.4 Communal violence and the state in Karamoja 152 6.5 Conclusion 159 UNDERSTANDING THE CAUSAL CONNECTIONS 160 7.1 Introduction 160 7.2 Understanding the causal interconnections 160 7.2.1 Historical structural continuities 161 7.2.2 Ethnicisation and militarisation of politics 163 7.2.3 Poverty, inequality and underdevelopment 169 7.2.4 The emergence of a war economy 171 7.3 Understanding the actor linkages 179 7.3.1 Local actors in both conflicts 180 509974-L-bw-isimon Processed on: 1-5-2017 PDF page: 7 7.3.2 The state as an actor in both conflicts 186 7.3.3 External actors both conflicts 191 7.4 Conclusion 195 SUMMARY AND RESEARCH AGENDA FOR THE FUTURE 197 8.1 General research findings 197 8.2 Specific research findings 198 8.3 Theoretical and methodological implications of the study for conflict analyses 203 8.3.1 Rethinking connections: State, ethnicity and sub-ethnic groups 203 8.3.2 Methodological contribution and implications 205 8.4 Towards mixed evidence-based policies 209 8.5 Future directions and areas of research 211 APPENDICES 213 Appendix 1: Time line of the armed conflict in northern Uganda 213 Appendix 2: Time line of the communal violence in Karamoja 216 REFERENCES 218 CURRICULUM VITAE 234 509974-L-bw-isimon Processed on: 1-5-2017 PDF page: 8 List of Tables, Figures, Maps and Appendices Tables Page Table 2.1 The Hollis Matrix 14 Table 3.1 Summary of features of civil war and communal violence 58 based conflicts Table 3.2 Theorising causes of violent conflict 60 Table 6.1 UCDP non-state conflict dataset for communal violence in 136 north eastern Uganda Table 6. 2: UCDP one-sided violence in Uganda 138 Table 6.3: Uppsala conflict data on armed conflict in northern 141 Uganda Table 6.4: UCDP non-state conflict between the LRA and SPLA/A 142 Figures Figure 1.1. Conflict Progression Model 8 Figiure 1.2 Conflict Analysis Framework. 9 Figure 3.1 Global Active Communal Violence from 1989 to 2010 55 Figure 3.2 Active communal violence by year and region, from 1989 56 to 2010 Figure 4.1 Internally Displaced Persons in Northern Uganda 99 Figure 6.1 Communal Violence and Civil wars, 1989 to 2010 146 Figure 7 .1 Sub-regional Poverty Situation 2012/2013 170 Figure 7.2 A polity model with included and excluded groups 181 Maps Map 1.1 Map of Africa showing location of Uganda 6 Map 2.1 Map of Research Sites in Moroto and Napak District 27 Map 2.2 Map of research sites in Gulu and Kitgum District 29 ix 509974-L-bw-isimon Processed on: 1-5-2017 PDF page: 9 Acronyms ACLED Armed Conflict Location and Event Data Project ARLI Acholi Religious Leaders’ Initiative ASTU Anti-Stock Theft Unit AU African Union CAR Central African Republic CONIS Conflict Information System COW Correlates of War CSOPNU Civil Society Organization for Peace in Northern Uganda DFID Department for International Development DRC Democratic Republic of Congo ECOWAS Economic Community of West African States EGIP Ethnic Group in Power FEDEMU Federal Democratic Movement FGD Focused Group Discussions FLN The National Liberation Front FRELIMO The Mozambique Liberation Front GUSCO Gulu Support the Children Organisation x 509974-L-bw-isimon Processed on: 1-5-2017 PDF page: 10 Acronyms xi HRW Human Rights Watch IDP Internally Displaced Persons IGAD Inter–Governmental Authority on Development IMF/WB International Monetary Fund and World Bank IRIN Integrated Regional Information Network KOSIMO The Konflikt Simulations Model LRA Lord’s Resistance Army MEG Marginalised Ethnic Groups MPLA Popular Movement for the Liberation of Angola NGO Non-Governmental Organisation NRM/A National Resistance Movement/Army OCHA Office of the Prime Minister OPM Office of the Prime Minister OPM Office of the Prime Minister PAIGC The African Party for the Independence of Guinea and Cape Verde PRIO Peace Research Institute Oslo RENAMO Mozambican National Resistance RPF Rwanda Patriotic Front RUF Revolutionary United Front SADC South African Development Community SALW Small Arms and Light Weapons SPLA Sudan People’s Liberation Army UCDA Uganda Christian Democratic Army 509974-L-bw-isimon Processed on: 1-5-2017 PDF page: 11 UCDP Uppsala Conflict Data Program UNICEF United Nations Children’s Emergency Fund UNITA National Union for the Total Independence of Angola UNLA United National Liberation Army UNOCHA United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs UPDA/M Uganda People’s Defence Army/Movement WHO World Health Organisation 509974-L-bw-isimon Processed on: 1-5-2017 PDF page: 12 Acknowledgements This thesis has been a challenge but is ultimately a rewarding knowledge ex- perience. I feel indebted to a number of people who have contributed to this learning experience and have supported and encouraged me throughout the process. My first appreciation is extended to the staff of Makerere University, Department of Development Studies, especially to the Head of Department, Prof. Godfrey Asiimwe, who encouraged me to embark on an academic ca- reer. I am grateful for the guidance and encouragement Dr. John Cameron offered me during the write up of the PhD Proposal and the application pro- cess for admission. I am indebted to the International Institute of Social Stud- ies, especially the Governance, Globalisation and Social Justice Group (GGSJ) for considering my application to further my studies. My heartfelt gratitude goes to my Promotor, Prof. Mohamed Salih, for his guardianship, his critical and professional guidance right from the initial stages of this aca- demic journey to date. My co-promotor, Dr. Helen Hintjens, who has tire- lessly reviewed my work and provided me with support, critical advice and guidance, that have helped shape my analysis and presentation of this thesis.
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