Ethnic Violence in Southern Thailand: the Anomaly of Satun
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Calhoun: The NPS Institutional Archive Theses and Dissertations Thesis Collection 2012-06 Ethnic Violence in Southern Thailand: the Anomaly of Satun Conlon, Kevin T. Monterey, California. Naval Postgraduate School http://hdl.handle.net/10945/7323 NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL MONTEREY, CALIFORNIA THESIS ETHNIC VIOLENCE IN SOUTHERN THAILAND: THE ANOMALY OF SATUN by Kevin T. Conlon June 2012 Thesis Advisor: Michael Malley Second Reader: Sandra Leavitt Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited THIS PAGE INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK REPORT DOCUMENTATION PAGE Form Approved OMB No. 0704–0188 Public reporting burden for this collection of information is estimated to average 1 hour per response, including the time for reviewing instruction, searching existing data sources, gathering and maintaining the data needed, and completing and reviewing the collection of information. Send comments regarding this burden estimate or any other aspect of this collection of information, including suggestions for reducing this burden, to Washington headquarters Services, Directorate for Information Operations and Reports, 1215 Jefferson Davis Highway, Suite 1204, Arlington, VA 22202–4302, and to the Office of Management and Budget, Paperwork Reduction Project (0704–0188) Washington DC 20503. 1. AGENCY USE ONLY (Leave blank) 2. REPORT DATE 3. REPORT TYPE AND DATES COVERED June 2012 Master’s Thesis 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE Ethnic Violence in Southern Thailand: The Anomaly 5. FUNDING NUMBERS of Satun 6. AUTHOR(S) Kevin T. Conlon 7. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION NAME(S) AND ADDRESS(ES) 8. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION Naval Postgraduate School REPORT NUMBER Monterey, CA 93943–5000 9. SPONSORING /MONITORING AGENCY NAME(S) AND ADDRESS(ES) 10. SPONSORING/MONITORING N/A AGENCY REPORT NUMBER 11. SUPPLEMENTARY NOTES The views expressed in this thesis are those of the author and do not reflect the official policy or position of the Department of Defense or the U.S. Government. IRB Protocol number ____N/A____________. 12a. DISTRIBUTION / AVAILABILITY STATEMENT 12b. DISTRIBUTION CODE Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited A 13. ABSTRACT (maximum 200 words) This research uses a historical comparative analysis to investigate the differences between two specific Muslim- majority regions of Thailand: the province of Satun, along the western coast of southern Thailand, and provinces of Yala, Narathiwat, Pattani, and Songkhla, which border the Malaysian state of Kelantan and the Gulf of Thailand. The formation of ethnic identities in Satun and Patani has followed different paths over time, and these variations in development have produced dramatically divergent outcomes in relation to observable communal violence and terrorist attacks. Satun has virtually no problem with ethnic or religious conflict when compared to the four other southern provinces that have suffered from multiple rebellions against the state, numerous incidents of violence and terrorism, and a pervading sense of instability and fear. This pronounced difference in outcomes also reflects the degree to which various ethnic groups within the country have been able to integrate peacefully into the modern Thai state. Finally, an analysis of the Thai government’s effectiveness in managing this integration process in both regions will provide insight into providing effective governance throughout the contested regions of southern Thailand, and what the potential is for a future resolution of this conflict. 14. SUBJECT TERMS Satun, Patani, Thailand, Ethnic violence, Nationalism, Social inequality, 15. NUMBER OF Cultural identity, Institutional development, Rational choice frameworks, Southeast Asia, Terrorism, PAGES Insurgencies, Islam 131 16. PRICE CODE 17. SECURITY 18. SECURITY 19. SECURITY 20. LIMITATION OF CLASSIFICATION OF CLASSIFICATION OF THIS CLASSIFICATION OF ABSTRACT REPORT PAGE ABSTRACT Unclassified Unclassified Unclassified UU NSN 7540–01–280–5500 Standard Form 298 (Rev. 2–89) Prescribed by ANSI Std. 239–18 i THIS PAGE INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK ii Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited ETHNIC VIOLENCE IN SOUTHERN THAILAND: THE ANOMALY OF SATUN Kevin T. Conlon Major, United States Marine Corps B.S., Humboldt State University, CA, 1998 Submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of MASTER OF ARTS IN SECURITY STUDIES (FAR EAST, SOUTHEAST ASIA, PACIFIC) from the NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL June 2012 Author: Kevin T. Conlon Approved by: Michael Malley Thesis Advisor Sandra Leavitt Second Reader Daniel Moran Chair, Department of National Security Affairs iii THIS PAGE INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK iv ABSTRACT This research uses a historical comparative analysis to investigate the differences between two specific Muslim-majority regions of Thailand: the province of Satun, along the western coast of southern Thailand, and provinces of Yala, Narathiwat, Pattani, and Songkhla, which border the Malaysian state of Kelantan and the Gulf of Thailand. The formation of ethnic identities in Satun and Patani has followed different paths over time, and these variations in development have produced dramatically divergent outcomes in relation to observable communal violence and terrorist attacks. Satun has virtually no problem with ethnic or religious conflict when compared to the four other southern provinces that have suffered from multiple rebellions against the state, numerous incidents of violence and terrorism, and a pervading sense of instability and fear. This pronounced difference in outcomes also reflects the degree to which various ethnic groups within the country have been able to integrate peacefully into the modern Thai state. Finally, an analysis of the Thai government’s effectiveness in managing this integration process in both regions will provide insight into providing effective governance throughout the contested regions of southern Thailand, and what the potential is for a future resolution of this conflict. v THIS PAGE INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK vi TABLE OF CONTENTS I. ETHNIC VIOLENCE IN SOUTHERN THAILAND: THE ANOMALY OF SATUN..........................................................................................................................1 A. INTRODUCTION............................................................................................1 1. Major Research Question....................................................................1 2. Importance............................................................................................3 3. Problems and Hypotheses ...................................................................6 4. Literature Review ................................................................................8 5. Methods and Sources.........................................................................17 6. Thesis Overview .................................................................................18 B. SATUN’S DEMOGRAPHICS AND HISTORY.........................................20 1. Satun’s Historical Record .................................................................28 a. Early Satun History Prior to 1200 CE ...................................28 b. The Ayutthaya Dynasty, 1351–1767.......................................29 c. The Chakri Dynasty and the Bangkok Period, 1767–1902 ...31 d. Nationalism and the Modern Era 1902–Present ...................35 C. PATANI’S DEMOGRAPHICS AND HISTORY.......................................43 1. Patani’s Historical Record ................................................................45 a. Early Patani History Prior to 1200 CE ..................................47 b. The Ayutthaya Dynasty, 1351–1767.......................................49 c. Chakri Dynasty and the Bangkok Period, 1767–1902...........53 d. Nationalism and the Modern Era, 1902–Present ..................57 D. CONTRIBUTING FACTORS FOR PEACE IN SATUN..........................63 1. Satun’s Cultural Influences for Nonviolence ..................................63 a. Language.................................................................................63 b. Religion....................................................................................65 2. Satun’s Institutional Influences for Nonviolence............................67 a. Education ................................................................................67 b. Center-periphery Relations.....................................................68 c. Political Representation..........................................................70 d. Security Forces and Domestic Order .....................................70 3. Satun’s Rational Choice Causes of Nonviolence.............................72 a. The Futility of Fighting a Larger Power ...............................72 b. Smuggling and the Black Market...........................................73 c. Legitimate Economic Calculations ........................................74 d. Civil Society and the Pursuit of Peace ...................................75 E. CONTRIBUTING FACTORS FOR VIOLENCE IN PATANI ................77 1. Patani’s Cultural Influences of Violence .........................................77 a. Language.................................................................................77 b. Religion....................................................................................79 2. Patani’s Institutional Causes of Violence ........................................81 a. Education ................................................................................81 vii b. Center-Periphery Relations