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Cost Benefit Analysis of the Proposed Runway Extension at Wellington International Airport

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Cost Benefit Analysis of the Proposed Runway Extension at Wellington International Airport Report prepared for Wellington International Airport Limited Cost Benefit Analysis of the Proposed Runway Extension at Wellington International Airport Kieran Murray, John Wallace, Preston Davies 23 November 2015 About Sapere Research Group Limited Sapere Research Group is one of the largest expert services firms in Australasia and a leader in provision of independent economic, forensic accounting and public policy services. Sapere provides independent expert testimony, strategic advisory services, data analytics and other advice to Australasia’s private sector corporate clients, major law firms, government agencies, and regulatory bodies. Wellington Auckland Level 9, 1 Willeston St Level 8, 203 Queen St PO Box 587 PO Box 2475 Wellington 6140 Auckland 1140 Ph: +64 4 915 7590 Ph: +64 9 909 5810 Fax: +64 4 915 7596 Fax: +64 9 909 5828 Sydney Canberra Melbourne Level 14, 68 Pitt St Unit 3, 97 Northbourne Ave Level 2, 65 Southbank GPO Box 220 Turner ACT 2612 Boulevard NSW 2001 GPO Box 252 GPO Box 3179 Ph: +61 2 9234 0200 Canberra City, ACT 2601 Melbourne, VIC 3001 Fax: +61 2 9234 0201 Ph: +61 2 6267 2700 Ph: +61 3 9626 4333 Fax: +61 2 6267 2710 Fax: +61 3 9626 4231 For information on this report please contact: Name: Kieran Murray Telephone: +64 4 915 7592 Mobile: +64 21 245 1061 Email: [email protected] Page i Contents Executive summary ..................................................................................................... vii 1. Introduction ...................................................................................................... 1 1.1 Purpose and structure of this report ..................................................................... 1 1.2 Method ....................................................................................................................... 1 1.3 Key assumptions and inputs .................................................................................. 2 2. Objectives of the project ................................................................................... 3 2.1 The main problem ................................................................................................... 3 2.2 Economic efficiency of air services to Wellington increased if constraint removed .................................................................................................. 3 2.3 Increasing production efficiency ........................................................................... 4 2.3.1 Short-haul loads ......................................................................................... 4 2.3.2 Long haul loads.......................................................................................... 5 2.3.3 Reducing the cost of supplying airline services at Wellington Airport ......................................................................................................... 6 2.4 Increasing consumption efficiency ........................................................................ 8 2.4.1 Reducing the “generalised cost” of airline services to users .............. 8 2.4.2 Increasing efficient use of airline services at Wellington Airport ......................................................................................................... 9 2.5 Increasing dynamic efficiency ................................................................................ 9 2.6 External economic costs and benefits of an extended runway ........................ 9 2.7 Competition gains .................................................................................................. 10 2.7.1 Cost and time savings passed on to consumers ................................. 10 2.7.2 Potential for additional price reductions from increased competition .............................................................................................. 12 2.8 Improving distributional equity ........................................................................... 13 2.9 Achieving the desired outcomes of government .............................................. 14 2.9.1 Wellington City Council’s long term strategic vision and plans ........................................................................................................... 14 2.9.2 NZ Government’s International Air Transport Policy ..................... 18 2.9.3 Supporting the Tourism 2025 targets .................................................. 19 2.9.4 Achieving national aims for international education ......................... 19 2.9.5 Meeting National Infrastructure Plan goals ........................................ 20 3. Forecast passenger traffic ............................................................................... 21 3.1 Forecasts prepared for this analysis .................................................................... 21 3.2 Market stimulation ................................................................................................. 22 3.3 Base case option (“business as usual”) ............................................................... 23 3.4 Passenger forecasts if the runway is extended ................................................... 27 4. Alternative options considered ........................................................................ 35 4.1 Options previously considered ............................................................................ 35 4.2 Short list ................................................................................................................... 36 4.2.1 Option 2: Defer the runway extension ................................................ 36 Page iii 4.2.2 Option 3: Promote Wellington Airport as a tourist and airfreight hub ............................................................................................ 37 4.3 Economic costs ...................................................................................................... 39 4.3.1 Incremental economic costs for airports ............................................. 39 4.3.2 Incremental economic costs for airlines .............................................. 44 4.3.3 Incremental economic costs for users of airline services ................. 50 4.3.4 Economic costs for other sections of the community ...................... 53 4.4 Economic benefits ................................................................................................. 59 4.4.1 Incremental economic benefits for airports ........................................ 60 4.4.2 Incremental economic benefits for airlines ......................................... 63 4.4.3 Incremental economic benefits for users of airline services ............ 66 4.4.4 Incremental economic benefits for other sections of the community ................................................................................................ 77 4.5 Net economic benefits .......................................................................................... 81 4.6 Possible regional effects ........................................................................................ 83 4.7 Comparison with other CBA studies .................................................................. 84 5. Preferred option .............................................................................................. 87 5.1 Selection of the preferred option ........................................................................ 87 5.2 Sensitivity analysis .................................................................................................. 87 6. Implementation of the preferred option ......................................................... 91 6.1 Funding the preferred option............................................................................... 91 6.2 Alternative approaches to funding ...................................................................... 91 6.2.1 Use government revenue ....................................................................... 92 6.2.2 Impact of alternative approaches to funding on the results of the cost benefit analysis .......................................................................... 99 Appendices Appendix 1 : Background and context........................................................................................... 100 Appendix 2 : Information sources .................................................................................................. 102 Appendix 3 : Results of the cost benefit analysis of the short listed options .......................... 103 Tables Table 1 Summary CBA results ($m present value, most likely scenario) x Table 2 Distribution of incremental benefits ($m present value, most likely scenario) xi Table 3 Sensitivity of CBA results (low scenario, present value, $m) xiii Table 4 Sensitivity of CBA results (high scenario, $m) xiii Table 5 “Short-haul” load carrying capacity potential savings ($NZ) 4 Table 6 Estimated Engine Maintenance Cost Savings ($NZ) 7 Table 7 Estimated Wheels, Tyres and Brakes Wear and Tear 8 Table 8 Estimated income elasticities 14 Table 9 Additional Long-haul Services - runway extension Option 1 31 Page iv Table 10 Annual Passenger Growth Rates by Scenario (2015-2060) 33 Table 11 Incremental economic costs of each option for airports 40 Table 12: Incremental economic costs of each option for airlines 45 Table 13: Incremental economic costs of each option for users of airline services 50 Table 14: Incremental economic costs of each option for other sections of the community 54 Table 15 Relevant information on the environmental
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