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Foreign Influence on Gray Zone: an Analytical Approach to Yemen Conflict OUTLINE

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Foreign Influence on Gray Zone: an Analytical Approach to Yemen Conflict OUTLINE Foreign Influence on Gray Zone: An Analytical Approach to Yemen Conflict OUTLINE • Introduction • Yemen Scene Setter • Nash Equilibrium • Bruce Bueno de Mesquita • Takeaways • Questions What is the influence of foreign involvement on gray zone conflicts in Yemen? Motivations & Constraints ● Think Differently ● Develop Tool for Analysis ● Narrow Case Study ● Scalable Model Yemen Scene Setter Timeline: ● 1990 - US facilitates unification of Yemen into one state ● 2004 - Houthis organize over perceived injustice ● 2009 - Houthis launch first attack but is put down, tension remains ● 2012 - 1st President forced to leave in non-violent transfer ● 2014 - Houthis rally around 1st President ● 2015 - Houthis invade capital of Sana’a, civil war begins Yemeni Government (status quo) • Key Leader: - Abdrabbuh Mansur Hadi - President of Yemen (2012- Present) • Primary Interests: - Re-establish a unified Yemen - Coalesce power under his government Houthis (revisionist) • Key Leader: - Ali Abdullah Saleh - 1st President of a unified Yemen (1990-2012) • Primary Interests: - Return to 2-state system - Or, replace Yemeni government with Houthi Saudi Arabia (interventionist) • Key Leader: - Mohammed bin Salman • Primary Interest: - Maintain status quo - Prevent Iranian influence Nash Equilibrium Basic Mechanics - What is Nash Equilibrium? - What information does Nash Equilibrium provide? - What does the Yemen conflict look like using Nash Equilibrium? Assumptions • Both sides cannot conduct 1st Strike simultaneously • Both sides cannot conduct 2nd Strike simultaneously • Motivations of the leader represents motivation of the population Yemen (Pre-2015) Using Nash Equilibrium Houthi Military - First Strike Military - Retaliatory Strike Diplomatic - Negotiate Yemen Military - First Strike 0 , 0 2 , -5 0 , -5 Military - Retaliatory -2 , 10 0 , 0 -10 , 0 Strike Diplomatic - Negotiate -2 , 6 0 , -5 -2 , 7 “All unstable and unsure things have a strong chance of falling into a no-win situation” -Clausewitz Saudi’s Response to Houthi Aggression Intervene 10 , 10 Stalemate Saudi 1st Strike -2 , 10 Houthi Win -2 , 10 Houthi Win Stay Out Houthis 0 , 0 Stalemate Bruce Bueno de Mesquita (BDM) Basic Mechanics • Has turned a marginal utility theory into a predicative rational choice driven, game theory model • Depends on rational choice theory* • BDM Theory twice as accurate as CIA’s analysts. Predicted to be 90% effective (with qualification). • Longitudinal measurement of subjective criteria in order to determine patterns and refine model. Methodology • Inputs (Multiplicity of Sources to Hedge Subjective Assessment) • Two Stages: 1) Data Collection + Interpretation from Human Subjects; 2) Computation Model (proprietary + precisely unknown). • Key value is salience – actor’s level of energy towards the particular issue. • Values used: Saudis (highly motivated), Yemenis (not that motivated), Houthi (highly motivated). BDM model depends however, on making judgment call on subjective criteria. DATA BEFORE INTERVENTION Houthi leader Yemeni leader Saudi leader What do they say they want? 70 70 60 How much do they prioritize the 70 60 50 issue? How much clout could they 60 80 70 exercise? How resolved are they? 75 40 60 AFTER INTERVENTION Houthi leader Yemeni leader Saudi leader What do they say they want? 80 70 40 How much do they prioritize the 90 60 30 issue? How much clout could they 90 80 90 exercise? How resolved are they? 90 60 40* Results • Saudi intervention • Sustainment of Houthi Goals • Yemeni Retrenchment • Inconclusive engagement as all parties are highly motivated. • Predictive Result: Saudis will continue their engagement, but motivation will die down. Takeaways Takeaways • Method for Quantifying Human Dimensions • Measure Level of Foreign Involvement and Influence • Foreign Influence Has Measurable Effect on Gray Zone Conflicts • SOCOM Should Take Into Account Level of Impact • This Model May Help Inform Decisions on Resource Allocation and Force Readiness Posture • May Help Focus SOF Efforts On Best Employment Strategies Questions?.
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