Pressing Scenarios : ωϭοϭϣϟ΍ϡγ΍ Implications of the Gulf Crisis on the : ωϭοϭϣϟ΍ϥ΍ϭϧϋ Situation in Yemen 14/07/2017 : έηϧϟ΍ΦϳέΎΗ ϑρΎϋΩϣΣ΃ : ΏΗΎϛϟ΍ϡγ΍ : ωϭοϭϣϟ΍ 9/29/2021 3:29:37 PM 1 / 3 The conflict in Yemen did not fall out of the scope of being affected by the diplomatic crisis between Qatar and other Gulf Cooperation Council members- Saudi Arabia, UAE and Bahrain. That is because the Yemen conflict is one of the key causes of the Gulf crisis, where Qatar supports terrorist organizations and rebel militias in the country. This support contradicts the goals set for the Saudi-led Coalition, the documents of the 2013 Riyad Agreement and its 2014 supplementary agreement. The illegitimate Qatari practices in Yemen promoted the command of the Arab Coalition to terminate Doha¶s participation on June 5, 2017. Qatar¶s Role in YemenThe following constitute the timeline of the Qatari role in Yemen over the past years. 1- Mediation in the so-called six Saada wars: Qatar¶s effective intervention in Yemen was initiated by its mediation in the Saada wars between the Yemeni state and the Houthi rebels in the period between 2004 and 2010. Then, Doha was able to play a prominent role managing to create strong relations with parties involved in the Yemeni conflict. 2- Supporting the Yemeni Revolution against the now-ousted president Ali Abudllah Saleh: Qatar¶s position in this regard was clear from the onset of the Revolution in 2011, when Doha backed the protests against Saleh. Moreover, it became a party to the Gulf Cooperation Council¶s initiative for political transition in Yemen. Doha was also keen on ensuring that the Yemeni Congregation for Reform, also known as al-Islah, which is the political arm of the Muslim Brotherhood in Yemen, would play a prominent role in the political process in the country. 3- Taking up a role in the Arab Coalition set up to regain legitimacy in Yemen: During the coup d¶etat in September 2014, the Houthi group stormed the state¶s security institutions and ministries. Later, as the developments unravelled, President Abdrabbuh Mansur Hadi resigned after the Houthis attacked the presidential palace on January 19, 2015. The developments prompted the Saudi-led Arab Coalition to launch Operation Decisive Storm in March 2015 to reinstate Yemen¶s legitimate government. Qatar backed and participated in the military operations.4- Backing al-Islah Party: Over the past years, Qatar sought to strengthen the influence of the Muslim Brotherhood in Yemen through al-Islah Party, which is the Brotherhood¶s faction in Yemen. It provides financial and logistic support, and even plays a role in enabling the party¶s senior leaders to assume the highest government positions. These include Vice President Ali Mohsen Saleh al-Ahmar, as well as government ministers belonging to this party. Yemen¶s ReactionsSoon after the Arab Coalition members announced the termination of Qatar¶s participation in the military operations in Yemen, following the current diplomatic crisis, Yemeni reactions came out as follows: 1- The legitimate government¶s backing for boycotting Qatar: Yemen¶s legitimate government headed by the President Hadi has reaffirmed its support for the Arab Coalition¶s measures against Qatar i.e. termination of the Qatari Armed Forces¶participation in the Coalition¶s military operations in Yemen. Hadi¶s government also severed its diplomatic relations with Qatar over its support for extremist groups and rebel militias. 2- Rift between the rebels: Division among the rebels over the current Gulf crisis has surfaced, which can be considered as a continuation of recent persistent disagreement between the Houthis and former president Ali Abdullah Saleh. The Houthis declared their support for Qatar against the other three Gulf countries and Egypt. This was voiced by Mohammed Ali al-Houthi, President of the Revolutionary Committee or Revolutionary Council, in a post on his official account on Facebook where he said, ³We condemn the measures targeting Qatar. We are prepared to cooperate with it, and recommend that the tendency to isolate Qatar should be reconsidered.´Moreover, the General People's Congress, led by ousted president Ali Abdullah Saleh, took a different stance towards Doha and backed the four states¶cutting relations with Qatar, which the party described the latter as a supporter of terrorist organizations, namely ISIS and al- Qaeda. However, the party also denounced the military offensives led by Saudi Arabia in Yemen. 3- Elusive Brotherhood: The al- Islah party¶s approach to the Gulf crisis showed its keenness to preserve its interests through pursuing elusive tactics. On the one hand, the party has not issued an official statement to clarify its position on severing relations with Qatar. Yet, all it did in this regard was a statement by Mohammed al-Saadi, its Assistant Secretary General, who is also Minister of Planning and International Cooperation in the Yemeni legitimate government, in which he reaffirmed the party¶s support for the government¶s decision to terminate Qatar¶s participation in the Arab Coalition and severe diplomatic relations with Doha. On the other hand, a non-official standpoint by the party¶s prominent figures surfaced. These figures even attacked Saudi Arabia and the UAE. Yemeni journalist and activist Tawakkol Karman expressed its opposition to expelling Qatar from the Arab Coalition.Crisis¶RepercussionsIf it continues, the Gulf crisis is likely to have consequences on the conflict in Yemen of which the following stand out: 1- The Arab Coalition¶s military operations will not be impacted: The Yemeni government forces, supported by the Arab Coalition forces, continues to conduct military operations in the perimeter of the capital Sanaa to take control of more territories in the lead up to recapture the city from the rebels. It is not expected that these military operations would be impacted by the termination of Qatar¶s participation in the Arab Coalition due to the fact that Saudi Arabia and the UAE have enough capabilities to make up for the Qatari military presence. That is, Doha participated in the Coalition¶s operations with ten jet fighters, 1000 troops and 200 armoured vehicles. 2- Saudi-UAE coordination in Yemen would be enhanced: The two states - Saudi Arabia and the UAE- recognize the fact that Qatar will seek to cause division and rifts within the ranks of the Arab Coalition in Yemen using its agents in Yemen. Therefore, Saudi Arabia and the UAE are likely to seek to expand their continued coordination about military operations and the developments taking place in Yemen so as to prevent Qatar from carrying out its subversive agenda in this country. 3- A possible Qatari-Iranian deal for Yemen: The current Gulf crisis has showed stronger rapprochement between Iran and Qatar. This was evidenced by Tehran¶s siding with Doha, and the opening of Iranian airspace for Qatari airplanes. Iran¶s aim is to capitalize on the current crisis and make the maximum possible benefit in its standoff with the Gulf Arab countries. Moreover, Qatar may use Iran as a bargaining chip to put pressure on Saudi Arabia and the UAE regarding Yemen, especially because Iran maintains strong ties with the rebel Houthi militia. 4- Qatar would increase its support for the Muslim Brotherhood in Yemen: Although the official position of the Yemeni Congregation for Reform, or al-Islah party, is ambiguous, its elements and the youth in particular took a stand with Qatar against the four boycotting countries. This would mean that this party, which is a Muslim Brotherhood affiliate, is considered one of the tools that Doha can resort to in case it decides to escalate against Saudi Arabia and the UAE to impact their interests in Yemen. 5- Provoking instability in South Yemen: Over the recent years, Qatar had its own intentions for South Yemen and sought to impact the interests of the Arab Coalition members in this region. Consequently, Doha, perhaps, would count on its proponents in Aden and the southern provinces to cause turbulence and increase pressure and exact heavier military and economic costs on the Coalition member states. 6- Qatar would intensify offensive media campaigns against the Arab Coalition in Yemen: In fact, this has surfaced in the last few days where Qatar¶s Al Jazeera media network focussed, once again, on the Yemeni issue, and aired reports criticizing the policies and practices of the Coalition members in the country. Such practices include claims regarding human rights violations in areas under the control of the Yemeni legitimate government and the members of the Coalition. It is therefore likely that these antagonistic anti-Arab Coalition media campaigns will intensify, if the Gulf crisis is to take an escalatory trajectory in the coming period. 9/29/2021 3:29:37 PM 2 / 3 9/29/2021 3:29:37 PM 3 / 3.