Adapting to Climate Variability Through Innovation February 26, 2021

Hosted by Paul Jones II, P.E. Task Force Chair General Manager Eastern Municipal Water District Agenda i. Welcome and Introductions ii. New Board Members: EMWD and WMWD iii. Panel Discussion: Water Project Marvels a. Abbey Nastan, NASA Jet Propulsion Labs b. Randall Neudeck, Metropolitan Water District of Southern California iv. Facilitated Question and Answer v. Chair and Vice Chair Transition vi. Closing Remarks Jeff Armstrong Board Member Eastern Municipal Water District Mike Gardner Board Member Western Municipal Water District Fauzia Rizvi Board Member Western Municipal Water District Abbey Nastan Applied Science Systems Engineer NASA Jet Propulsion Labs Water and Climate: JPL’s Capabilities

Abbey Nastan Applied Science Systems Engineering

© 2021 California Institute of Technology. Government sponsorship acknowledged. CL#21-0858

JPL Capabilities in Water Resource Management EXPERIENCE, TECHNOLOGY & ASSETS

Airborne Spaceborne Models & Studies Landsat ASO* AIRS Spectral information from Earth’s surface Airborne Snow Observatory (ASO) Atmospheric Infrared Sounder ARIA MODIS AirMSPI Advanced Rapid Imaging and Analysis Moderate Resolution Imaging Airborne Multiangle SpectroPolarimetric Imager UAVSAR / Sentinel-1 / COSMO-SkyMed / ALOS-2 Spectroradiometer JPL Scientists AVIRIS ASTER SMAP Airborne Visible/InfraRed Imaging Spectrometer Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Soil Moisture Active/Passive & Engineers Reflection Radiometer JPL scientists have published extensively HICO VIIRS Hyperspectral Imager for Coastal Ocean ECOSTRESS Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer ECOsystem Spaceborne Thermal Radiometer Suite HyTES Experiment on Space Station Hyperspectral Thermal Emission Spectrometer NISAR (2023) GPM NASA-ISRO SAR LiDAR Global Precipitation Measurement Light Detection and Ranging SWOT (2022) GRACE-FO Surface Water and Ocean Topography MASTER Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment MODIS/ASTER Airborne Simulator Follow-On PACE (2022) Plankton, Aerosol, Cloud, Ecosystem PRISM IceSat-2 Portable Remote Imaging Spectrometer Ice, Cloud and Land Elevation Satellite

UAVSAR (L-band Classic / P-band Jason-2, Jason-3 AirMOSS / Ka-band GLISTIN) Ocean surface height and circulation Uninhabited Aerial Vehicle Synthetic Aperture Radar

*ASO transitioned to a commercial entity as of 2020. NASA NASA Western Water Applications Office

JPL Capabilities for Climate Impacts

Water Supply Consumptive Use Extremes

Groundwater Evapotranspiration Drought Streamflow Flood Snowpack Atmospheric Rivers Levee Integrity WWAO NASA Western Water Applications Office

Western-based NASA program office

• Supports needs of western • Develops custom U.S. water managers to solutions through enhance decision-making applications projects

• Connects stakeholders with • Assists with transition NASA scientists, of applications to technology, tools, data operations

Projects

• Snowpack • Crop management & decision support surveys • High res soil moisture data for crop monitoring • Drought warnings • Satellite-based drought reports for Navajo nation • Land Info System • Operational ET for New Mexico

WWAO Website

Colorado River Basin Needs Assessment

NASA Water Portal: Map-based portal of NASA water-related capabilities WWAO Satellite-Aided Irrigation (2019 WWAO Project)

Providing real-time, satellite-driven irrigation recommendations to California farmers

• NASA’s existing Satellite Irrigation Management Support (SIMS) system was enhanced to provide reliable, low latency (<48 hours) satellite data for irrigation recommendations

• UAV data collected over specific crops to improve SIMS results on per-crop basis

• SIMS system was implemented on Google Earth Engine for easy data access

• CropManage decision support system updated to use the SIMS API on Google Earth Engine to support long-term data access

CropManage Tool (UCANR)

WWAO 2019 Annual Report

NASA Water Portal: Map-based portal of NASA water-related capabilities Water Supply ESTIMATING GROUNDWATER via Gravity

• Monthly global maps of GRACE-FO water and mass change Gravity Recovery and Climate available every 30-40 days Experiment – Follow On Spaceborne • Two decades of Observes changes in measurements reveal Earth’s gravity field groundwater recharge rates

Provides estimate of change in • National Drought Mitigation amount of water stored in a Center downscales GRACE region data to regional scale, • groundwater makes it publicly available • water in soil Tiny shifts in Earth's gravitational field are used to determine the rate of groundwater • surface water in lakes, streams, snow, change in the US. This analysis used GRACE data in combination with the Global ice Precipitation Climatology Project.

GRACE-FO Website

NASA Physical Oceanography Data Center (PO.DAAC) GRACE-FO Data Access

National Drought Mitigation Center GRACE- FO Drought Indicators Water Supply ESTIMATING GROUNDWATER via InSAR

InSAR JPL delivers subsidence Interferometric Synthetic Aperture products for water managers, Radar hydrologists, and the public Airborne & Spaceborne • Reports Measures subsidence caused by • Maps regional and hot spots the withdrawal and recharge of aquifers for insight into • Pixel Histories groundwater storage • Animations Measures surface deformation, compares data • Tools for time-series analysis from two overpasses separated in time

California Department of Water Resources ARIA uses JPL subsidence products for: Advanced Rapid Image & Analysis • Effect of subsidence on infrastructure Spaceborne • Unsustainable water use

Auto-generation of California Since the 1920’s, excessive pumping of groundwater at thousands of wells has caused land to subside (or sink) by as much as 28 feet in sections of California’s San Joaquin Valley. subsidence maps Data: Copernicus Sentinel-1A ARIA Website

ARIA Standard Displacement Product info

ARIA Product Search (Data access, requires free NASA Earthdata account) Water Supply INFRASTUCTURE INTEGRITY Observing subsidence to monitor California’s levees and aqueducts

Partnership Levees in the Sacramento- California Aqueduct JPL & California Dept of San Joaquin Delta • Water flow dependent on gravity Water Resources • Ground subsidence can inhibit flow • InSAR can detect subsidence Monitoring levees since 2009

UAVSAR Imagery Hot spot in • Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta Avenal, California Much of Suisun Marsh UAVSAR reveals a • subsidence trouble spot along the Subsidence measurements California aqueduct • Measures rate of upward/downward soil • Most critical water resource for CA and an movement & characterizes levee endangered ecosystem stability • Continuously threatened with levee breakage JPL Model • Incorporates land use, soil type, JPL UAVSAR identified seep in levee and factors affecting subsidence UAVSAR Data Search Example of levee seep • Puts data into context for Break in west levee of the 2019 publication on San Joaquin Delta Sutter Bypass, 1997 resource managers Photo: CA DWR subsidence Water Trek Water Supply STREAMFLOW Data Analysis & Visualization Tool Fusing in-situ, airborne, spaceborne and RAPID model-generated data Uses VIC, RAPID, and PRISM models, with River Routing Model MERRA-2, MODIS, and GRACE data as Routing Application for Parallel Computation of Discharge input, and ASO data for validation River flow in the Mississippi Basin Computes flow and volume of water in river networks from small river basins to the entire globe User defined • Every 3 hr / 2 km segment polygon • High spatial and temporal resolution • Utilizes weather and land surface models GPS • Can assimilate river ground station data Frame from animation, The river basins of California, USA, over four months (between 2005-11-01 and 2006-02-28). 3-hourly surface and subsurface runoff was produced from hourly VIC data downloaded from NLDAS2, and RAPID was run at a 15-minute time step. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mQGzGlgHtdU In-situ stream gauge sensors RAPID River network SAR-derived Model output soil subsidence moisture users NOAA US Army Engineer Bangladesh Water include U.S. National Water Research and Development Board’s Flood Model based on Development Center RAPID code Forecasting Warning Center Using RAPID results for Implementing modified RAPID for RAPID model hub and code download military ops & disasters flood forecasting Email Daniel.J.Crichton@jpl.nasa.gov for inquiries about Water Trek Water Supply SNOWPACK – The Airborne Snow Observatory

ASO • Measures snow depth, snow Airborne Snow Observatory water equivalent, and albedo Scanning LiDAR and imaging spectrometer over and entire basin snow depth – water contained in snow; albedo – amount of sunlight reflected by snow, determines snow melt rate

• Provides snow depth and SWE data within 24-48 hours of flight/data collection Water resource managers use ASO data to make decisions about water • ASO significantly reduces supply, flood management, forecast errors in Sierra Snow water equivalent / Tuolumne River Basin, CA hydropower and ecological flows Nevada total seasonal Lighter blue = less snow deeper blue = more snow 2015 lowest snowpack on record snowmelt runoff 2017 snow water equivalent 21x times greater than 2015

• ASO has flown in California, Colorado, Oregon, Nevada, Idaho, with partner flights in Switzerland

Airborne Snow Observatory past project info

Download 2013-2019 ASO data

Airborne Snow Observatories, Inc. homepage Water Supply ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS

Precip from atmospheric rivers contribute 22% of total water flowing across Earth's land surfaces JPL products are North America west/east coasts, Southeast Asia, New Zealand can exceed 50% developed under the guidance of the A few storms account for ~40% of California Dept of California’s annual water supply Water Resources and the Western States ARs account for most flooding events Water Council CA DWR supports on US west coast development of JPL experimental forecasts Frequency and severity of landfalling • JPL AR models utilize • AR detection algorithm & ARs on US west coast will increase …. AR activity with lead times of 2 weeks to 3 with increasing temperature satellite data associated global AR Improving our understanding database are operational months USGCRP Climate Science Special Report of processes that influence the ability to predict ARs • Developing seasonal and sub-seasonal prediction

JPL feature on climate change and changes in atmospheric rivers

JPL feature on atmospheric river forecasting (interview with Vicky Espinoza) Water Supply EXPERIMENTAL PRECIP FORECASTING

• Collaboration with Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes on subseasonal to seasonal forecasting

• Forecasting atmospheric river likelihood with up to three- week lead time (multi-model approach)

• Also forecasting atmospheric ridging with up to 6 weeks lead time (feature tracking approach)

• Experimental forecasts available online at the Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes site Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes S2S forecasts

2020 publication on atmospheric ridging detection and tracking algorithm Consumptive Use EVAPOTRANSPIRATION

Instruments providing ECOSTRESS evapotranspiration (ET) ECOsystem Spaceborne Thermal Radiometer products Experiment on the International Space Station • JPL significantly advanced the Spaceborne measurement of ET, manifesting in ECOSTRESS on ISS a dedicated mission MODIS • Designed to study how plants LANDSAT respond to heat & water stress Airborne • Identifying critical thresholds of HyTES water use and water stress in key biomes

JPL exploring science synergies • Unprecedented 70 resolution, ET in combination with satellite data (SMAP, 300+ users OCO-2, ISS instruments, GRACE-FO) to answer science questions • ET now provided at low cost for many applications

WWAO Project – Plant stress in Guanacaste region Costa Rica after drought onset Operational ET for New Mexico Red = high stress, yellow = moderate stress, greens/blues = low stress, clouds = light gray JPL ET helping with decision making ECOSTRESS data information

Coming soon: OpenET – Evapotranspiration data for water management Extremes DROUGHT

AIRS GRACE-FO United States Drought Monitor Atmospheric Infrared Sounder Gravity Recovery and Climate U.S. policymakers use the USDM for Spaceborne Experiment Follow-On drought decision-making & drought Spaceborne relief allocations Early detection of Data products from AIRS & GRACE meteorological drought Measure global changes in are included in the generation of the water stored in world’s USDM Standardized vapor pressure largest aquifers deficit & relative humidity index show early drought Reports at three levels detection lead times up to • Surface soil moisture two months • Root zone soil moisture • Groundwater

Mean lead time AIRS Stan. Rel Hum Index vs Stan. Precip Index (months)

AIRS Drought Applications Page

National Drought Mitigation Center GRACE- FO Drought Indicators Extremes FLOOD

Flood Proxy Map Spaceborne ARIA Determines edges of water boundaries ARIA Website

FEMA – “We found your FPMs extremely ARIA Share (Data access for useful during [Hurricane] Harvey for model disasters-related products) validation and identifying locations of flooding that we could not predict with modeled riverine depth grids.”

Flood proxy maps depicting areas of Mozambique that are likely flooded as a result of Cyclone Idai, March 2019

Flood Extent and • Flood extent maps & water levels • USGS uses flood level change provided to federal, state, and local information to help guide teams Water Level agencies for rescue, disaster to regions with greatest water level Airborne UAVSAR response planning change Extremes FLOOD

Saturated Soil Spaceborne SMAP

Hurricane Harvey case • Soil surface conditions already very wet before Hurricane Harvey landfall (left) • Saturated soil surfaces contributed to inability of water to infiltrate more deeply into soils, thereby increasing likelihood of flooding • After Harvey landfall, southwest Houston became exceptionally wet (right) signaling arrival of heavy rains and widespread flooding

Ongoing research – Flood Life Cycle Stormwater tracking Satellite Data & Flood Requirements NASA analysis of 2015 Texas flood is first GPS data to track land stormwater pooling Determination of requirements for river-observing to document full life cycle and impacts of and determine time to dissipate satellites to become useful tools for: flood on land & ocean, uses satellite data • mitigation of flood damage • improve reservoir management globally in near real- time SMAP Website SMAP data product info SMAP data access Coming Soon

2023 The NASA-ISRO Synthetic 2022 Surface Water and Ocean Aperture Radar (NISAR) Mission Topography (SWOT) Mission

• Observes ecosystem disturbances, ice-sheet • Will provide never-before-seen maps of river collapse, natural hazards such as earthquakes, height – allowing for more reliable prediction tsunamis, volcanoes and landslides of flood timing and magnitude • Frequent & regular sampling of some of Earth’s • Derive surface water extent and storage most hazard-prone areas change for lakes reservoirs, wetlands and rivers & provide estimates of water volume and • Mission objectives include water resource river discharge monitoring (including floods & flood forecasting) Attributions

Slide Author Water Supply Water Supply Extremes Sharon Ray and Abbey Nastan

Background photo credit Satellite-Aided Irrigation Snowpack Drought Science: Lee Johnson, Forrest Melton and Alberto Science: Judy Lai AIRS Science: Alireza Farahmand jaaad (iStock) Guzman – Ames Research Center Sierra images: ASO/NASA - Sierra Snowpack AIRS image: Alireza Farahmand Images: WWAO 2019 Annual Report Bigger Than Last Four Years Combined: NASA GRACE-FO image: https://nasagrace.unl.edu/ https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/news/news.php?feature=6 USDM image: The U.S. Drought Monitor is jointly produced Estimating Groundwater via Gravity 815 by the National Drought Mitigation Center at the University Science: Matt Rodell et al. (2018), DOI: of Nebraska-Lincoln, the United States Department of 10.1038/s41586-018-0123-1 Atmospheric Rivers Agriculture, and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Data Visualization: NASA's Goddard Space Flight Science: Duane Waliser Administration. Map courtesy of NDMC Center Scientific Visualization Studio AR image: NOAA/ESRL Special Sensor Microwave https://svs.gsfc.nasa.gov/12876 Imager (SSM/I) Flood ARIA Science: Judy Lai Estimating Groundwater via Subsidence ARIA image: NASA/JPL-Caltech/ARIA Science: Tom Farr UAVSAR Science: NASA Airborne Team Surveys Flooding San Joaquin Vally subsidence image: NASA Earth from Hurricane Florence, Observatory map by Joshua Stevens, using https://www.nasa.gov/centers/armstrong/features/nasa- modified Copernicus Sentinel SAR data (2016) surveys-florence-flooding.html courtesy of Tom Farr and Cathleen Jones, NASA SMAP science: https://smap.jpl.nasa.gov/news/1264/nasa- Jet Propulsion Laboratory Consumptive Use shows-how-harvey-saturated-areas-in-texas/ Hurricane Harvey image: NASA/JPL-Caltech/SMAP Infrastructure Integrity Ongoing Research – Science: Cathleen Jones Lifecycle of a Flood: The Life Cycle of a Flood Revealed, Characterizing land surface change and levee Evapotranspiration https://www.nasa.gov/feature/jpl/the-life-cycle-of-a-flood- stability in the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta Science: Josh Fisher revealed using UAVSAR radar imagery – Cathleen E. Jones, Plant stress image: NASA/JPL- Satellite Data and Flood Requirements: Before the Flood Gerald Bawden, Steven Deverel, Joel Dudas, Scott Caltech/ECOSTRESS, Arrives, https://www.nasa.gov/feature/jpl/before-the-flood- Hensley ; DOI:10.1109/IGARSS.2011.6049546 https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/news/news.php?feature=7 arrives UAVSAR levee seep image: Cathleen Jones 472 Stormwater tracking: New Study Tracks Hurricane Harvey Avenal image: Cathleen Jones Stormwater with GPS, https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/news/news.php?feature=7239 Streamflow RAPID Science: Cedric David Water Trek: Dan Crichton Randall Neudeck Program Manager Metropolitan Water District of Southern California Riverside Water Task Force Randall Neudeck – Metropolitan Water District of Southern California February 26, 2021 Who is MWD?

Governor’s Water Resiliency Plan

Adaptive Approaches to Climate Variability in the Bay Delta

29 Water Supply Portfolio

23% – State Water Project (Delta) Importeds Supplies 20% – Colorado River Local Supplies 16% – Water Conservation 41% – Local Supplies State Water LA Aqueduct Los Angeles Aqueduct Project Groundwater

Colorado River Recycling Aqueduct

Conservation, Recycling, Groundwater 30 Water Supply Portfolio

Conservation Recycling GW Recovery Stormwater Recharge Seawater Desalination

Semitropic Groundwater Banking Kern Delta Arvin-Edison San Bernardino Palo Verde

Coachella Conservation, Recycling, Imperial Groundwater 31 Who is MWD?

Governor’s Water Resiliency Plan

Adaptive Approaches to Climate Variability in the Bay Delta

32 Develop portfolio to meet needs through 21st century Adapt to climate change effects Modernize Delta conveyance with a new single tunnel project Build a climate-resilient water system that includes: Recycling, conservation, stormwater capture, groundwater recharge, modernized Delta infrastructure

33 Who is MWD?

Governor’s Water Resiliency Plan

Adaptive Approaches to Climate Variability in the Bay Delta

34 Shasta Oroville Reservoir Reservoir

The heart of California’s Sac River water supply

Water supplies for 26 million residents

Key to maintaining Ocean/Bay locally-grown agriculture in the Central Valley

SWP Pumps CVP Pumps 35 Subsidence Seismic Risk

Delta Risks Fishery Declines Flooding

Sea-Level Rise Invasive Species / Levee Voids Why due concentrations drop when Spring starts?

37 A Key Component … CO2

CO2 Bare Soil Cover Crop

38 California’s Bay Delta Carbon CO2 Emissions 2 CO 2 million metric tons per year 500,000 vehicle COequivalent2 Cover Crop Bare Soil

39 Sea-Level Rise Projections 10 ft.

Historical 7 ft. 0.64 feet rise in 130 years Sea-Level Rise Future Probability (Feet) 1.1 to 2.7 feet by 2050 3 ft. 3 to 10 feet by 2100 2.7 ft. 1.9 ft. 2018 projection update by Cal Resources Agency & 1.1 ft. Ocean Protection Council

2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100 Year Low Risk Aversion = 66% probability of sea-level rise (based on Kopp et al 2014) Med-High Risk Aversion = 0.5% probability of sea-level rise (based on Kopp et al 2014) Extreme Risk Aversion = Single scenario of sea-level rise (based on Sweet et al 2017) 40 Flood Risk Assessment

Historical 162 levee failures in last 100 years 10 levee failures since 1982 when State began funding levee improvements Future Probability Peak storm runoff estimate 44% increase by 2050 and 77% increase by 2100 1 Will concentrate within core winter months when high tides also occur 1

1. Info from Delta Stewardship Council 2020 41 Subsidence Risk Projections

Historical 1 Subsidence 10 to 30 feet (- 0.5 to 1.5 inch/year) 2,200,000 million tons/yr. of carbon emissions Equivalent of 500,000 Current Land Elevations vehicles annually below Sea-Level Future Probability 3 to 10 ft. more subsidence by 2100 SWP Pumps CVP Pumps

1. Info from Deverel, Leighton, Lucero – journal publication 2017 42 Adaptive Approaches Wetlands

Research Pilot Concepts Wetlands (tule, rice, etc.) Paludiculture cultivated wetlands Paludiculture Regenerative agriculture Floating peat wetlands Benefits Reduce land subsidence Regenerative Agriculture Enhance marginal farmland Reduce sea-level rise impacts Secure carbon capture credits Enhance habitat restoration Limit herbicide & pesticide usage FloatingBouldin Peat Island Wetland 43 Adaptive Approaches

Floating Peat Wetlands From Louisiana to Nova Scotia, and Africa to Netherlands Floating Peat Wetland Research Can restore subsided lands to productive wetlands faster Benefits terrestrial and aquatic species, water quality, etc. MWD initiated research taking place on Bouldin Island Working with DWR, Hydrofocus, UC Davis, UC Berkeley, U.S . Geological Survey, Louisiana State University, Univ. of Montana, etc. Louisiana Floating Peat Wetland Dr. Chris Swarzenski, USGS Louisiana Water Science Center 44 Adaptive Approaches

Carbon Sequestration Developing carbon credit protocol with The Nature Conservancy Environmental Defense Fund Delta Conservancy UC Davis, Berkeley, Riverside Air Resources Board/ American Carbon Registry Others

UC Davis Carbon Research Station 45 Can We Adapt to Climate Variability?

Study estimates 50% risk reduction 1,2 20% from levee failures with wetlands

15%

10%

5%

Levee Failure Risk by 2070 2070 by Risk Failure Levee 0% Staten Bouldin Bacon Jersey

1. Source: “Subsidence and levee failure in the California Delta: A proof-of-concept study demonstrates rice and wetland implementation strategy to reduce probability of failure” Bachand & Associates, Stillwater Sciences, Hydrofocus, and San Francisco State University 2. The analysis looked at two primary modes of failure -static stability and piping failures; The analysis does not consider changes to the dynamic stability/seismic failure risks, over-topping risks, or ongoing annual levee improvements currently taking place. 46 Can We Adapt to Climate Variability?

FUTURE OPPORTUNITIES

Carbon sequestration & Integrated landscape Delta Conveyance & regenerative agriculture management Freshwater Pathway projects projects

Levee Improvements Widen crown to allow habitat Soil Accretion +1 to 2 inch/yr. 1 (+ 7 to 14 ft. by 2100)

1 Based on Twitchell Island and other habitat restoration projects 47 48 Questions to the Panelists? Chair and Vice Chair Transition

● Current Chair: Paul Jones

● Current Vice Chair: Craig Miller

● Incoming Chair: Craig Miller

● Incoming Vice Chair: Jason Uhley, General Manager, Riverside County Flood Control and Water Conservation District Paul Jones Tribute Thank You Save the Date Friday, Apr. 23, 2021

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