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Alstom Q109 Sales/Orders Preview; Adjusting for Stock Split

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Alstom Q109 Sales/Orders Preview; Adjusting for Stock Split Europe France Capital Goods Electrical Equipment 8 July 2008 Results Preview Company Company Alstom Reuters: ALSO.PA Bloomberg: ALO FP Exchange: PAR Ticker: ALSO Hold Price at 8 Jul 2008 (EUR) 70.86 Price Target (EUR) 73.00 52-week range (EUR) 83.55 - 58.69 Q109 sales/orders preview; Key changes Target Price 145.00 to 73.00 È -49.7% adjusting for stock split Martin Wilkie Peter Reilly Price/price relative Research Analyst Research Analyst (+44) 20 754-51956 (+44) 20 754-59835 85 [email protected] [email protected] 75 65 55 Q109 preview; adjusting Target Price to €73 due to stock split 45 Alstom will report Q109 orders and sales on July 16, when we expect group 35 25 orders of €6,221m and group sales of €4,499m. With this note we are also 15 adjusting our Target price to €73 and adjusting our EPS estimates by 50% to 7/05 1/06 7/06 1/07 7/07 1/08 reflect the 2:1 stock split effective from July 7; we have made no underlying Alstom changes to our model. Despite Alstom's attractive growth profile we find the DJ (.STOXXE) (Rebased) Global Markets Research valuation full relative to sector peers and retain our Hold rating. Performance (%) 1m 3m 12m Expect orders to fall YoY due to contract timing; end markets remain strong Absolute -11.3 1.6 10.9 Although announced order trends remained healthy in the quarter (see pages 4 DJ (.STOXXE) -9.5 -12.6 -27.9 and 5), we expect booked orders to fall YoY in Q1, largely driven by the large Stock & option liquidity data €2.1bn SNCF rail contract booked in Q1 last year, as well as the timing of the Market cap (EUR)(m) 20,399.6 booking of the announced €1.3bn Eskom, €1bn Essent, and €1.9bn Saudi power Shares outstanding (m) 288 contracts, all of which we expect to be booked later in the fiscal year. Comments Year End No. Shares (m) 287,886,356 at the Siemens’ Energy Capital Markets Day held last week suggest that the Free float (%) – Power Generation outlook remains robust. Option volume (und. shrs., 1M avg.) 120,450 An update on strategic direction? Implied & Realized Volatility (3M) Although Alstom will not give P&L data at the Q1 stage, the company may update 60% the market on strategic direction. The head of the Alstom Transport division 50% recently commented on acquisition opportunities in Rail following the expiration 40% this month of the EU ban on Alstom Transport acquisitions, and CEO Patrick Kron 30% also recently expressed “regret” on the sale of the T&D business to Areva in 20% 2004. As of March 31, Alstom held net cash of €904m. 10 % 0% Valuation and risks Aug 07 Feb 08 We value Alstom on 10.5x FY10e EV/EBIT, a 10% premium to the long term sector Realized Vol Implied Vol (ATM) average of 9.6x to reflect the strength of Alstom’s backlog. Key risks include corporate activity, the emergence of national champions in China and India, any Implied Volatility (3M, ATM) vs. Peers slowing of the power generation cycle. (see page 6 for more on risks). SGEF.PA 39.3% 37.9% SCHN.PA ALSO.PA 37.3% *STOXX 600 33.6% Forecasts and ratios PHG.AS 30.8% Year End Mar 31 2007A 2008A 2009E 2010E 2011E BAES.L 29.8% Revenue (EURm) 14,208 16,908 19,011 20,871 22,592 *Weighted-avg. of index components EBITA (EURm) 889 1,260 1,516 1,905 2,163 Data as of 07-Jul-08 DB EPS (EUR) 2.23 3.10 3.72 4.68 5.37 OLD DB EPS (EUR) 4.47 6.18 7.43 9.33 10.70 Upcoming events Details % Change -50.0% -49.8% -49.9% -49.8% -49.8% Q109 orders/sales 16 Jul 2008 Press release 08:00 CET P/E (DB EPS) (x) 17.7 21.5 19.0 15.1 13.2 Conf call 09:00 CET EV/EBITA (x) 13.4 15.5 13.5 10.8 9.2 Dial-in +44 (0) 207 162 0025 Source: Deutsche Bank estimates, company data Deutsche Bank AG/London All prices are those current at the end of the previous trading session unless otherwise indicated. Prices are sourced from local exchanges via Reuters, Bloomberg and other vendors. Data is sourced from Deutsche Bank and subject companies. Deutsche Bank does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. Thus, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. Independent, third-party research (IR) on certain companies covered by DBSI's research is available to customers of DBSI in the United States at no cost. Customers can access this IR at http://gm.db.com, or call 1-877-208-6300 to request that a copy of the IR be sent to them. DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS ARE LOCATED IN APPENDIX 1 8 July 2008 Electrical Equipment Alstom Model updated:08 July 2008 Fiscal year end 31-Mar 2006 2007 2008 2009E 2010E 2011E Running the numbers Financial Summary Europe DB EPS (EUR) 1.14 2.23 3.10 3.72 4.68 5.37 Reported EPS (EUR) 0.64 1.67 2.96 3.72 4.68 5.37 France DPS (EUR) 0.00 0.40 0.80 0.93 1.17 1.34 Electrical Equipment BVPS (EUR) 6.5 7.8 7.7 10.5 14.0 18.0 Weighted average shares (m) 276 287 287 288 288 288 Average market cap (EURm) 5,877 11,357 19,145 20,400 20,435 20,435 Alstom Enterprise value (EURm) 6,297 11,932 19,592 20,510 20,545 19,795 Valuation Metrics Reuters: ALSO.PA Bloomberg: ALO FP P/E (DB) (x) 18.7 17.7 21.5 19.0 15.1 13.2 P/E (Reported) (x) 33.0 23.7 22.5 19.0 15.1 13.2 Hold P/BV (x) 5.36 6.26 8.93 6.77 5.08 3.94 Price (8 Jul 08) EUR 70.86 FCF Yield (%) 6.5 9.7 8.6 5.5 6.1 7.3 Target price EUR 73.00 Dividend Yield (%) 0.0 1.0 1.2 1.3 1.7 1.9 52-week Range EUR 58.69 - 83.55 EV/Sales (x) 0.5 0.8 1.2 1.1 1.0 0.9 EV/EBITDA (x) 5.8 10.8 13.2 11.6 9.5 8.1 Market Cap (m) EURm 20,400 EV/EBIT (x) 9.5 13.4 15.5 13.5 10.8 9.2 USDm 31,953 Company Profile Income Statement (EURm) Alstom generates 60% of revenues in Power Generation, and Sales revenue 13,413 14,208 16,908 19,011 20,871 22,592 40% in Rail Transport. In Power Generation, Alstom has the Gross profit 1,170 1,173 1,518 1,811 2,222 2,494 largest installed base of coal-fired power equipment globally, EBITDA 1,090 1,105 1,483 1,761 2,162 2,434 and also derives significant revenue from gas-fired and hydro Depreciation 424 216 223 245258 270 power equipment. In Transport, Alstom supplies both rail Amortisation 000 000 rolling stock and signalling, and competes globally with Siemens and Bombardier. French industrial conglomerate EBIT 666 889 1,260 1,516 1,905 2,163 Bouygues owns 25% of the share capital, which was primarily Net interest income(expense) -222 -111 -69 -52 -34 -17 bought when the French state sold down its 21% stake in Associates/affiliates -1 0 1 00 0 2006. Exceptionals/extraordinaries -137 -162 -39 0 0 0 Other pre-tax income/(expense) 0 0 0 0 0 0 Profit before tax 505 616 1,152 1,464 1,871 2,147 Price Performance Income tax expense 125 145 291 381 505 580 Minorities 3 -9 10 1316 19 90 Other post-tax income/(expense) 0 0 0 0 0 0 70 Net profit 178 480 852 1,071 1,349 1,548 50 DB adjustments (including dilution) 137 162 39 0 0 0 30 DB Net profit 315 642 891 1,071 1,349 1,548 10 Jul 05 Apr 06 Dec 06 Sep 07 Jun 08 Cash Flow (EURm) Cash flow from operations 618 1,496 2,061 1,572 1,701 1,940 Alstom DJ (.STOXXE) (Rebased) Net Capex -234 -389 -419 -450 -450 -450 Free cash flow 384 1,107 1,642 1,122 1,251 1,490 Margin Trends Equity raised/(bought back) 6 0 0 0 0 0 12 Dividends paid -4 0 -117 -230 -337 -387 10 Net inc/(dec) in borrowings 0 0 0 0 0 0 8 Other investing/financing cash flows 17 139 -531 -175 0 0 6 Net cash flow 403 1,246 994 717 913 1,103 4 Change in working capital 314 524 897 200 50 0 2 0 06 07 08 09E 10E 11E Balance Sheet (EURm) Cash and other liquid assets 1,301 1,907 2,115 2,832 3,745 4,848 EB ITDA Mar gi n EB IT Mar gi n Tangible fixed assets 1,361 1,369 1,501 1,688 1,853 2,006 Goodwill/intangible assets 4,520 4,701 5,089 5,089 5,089 5,089 Growth & Profitability Associates/investments 3,719 2,559 1,221 1,221 1,221 1,221 Other assets 7,484 9,008 10,703 12,034 13,211 14,301 25 50 Total assets 18,385 19,544 20,629 22,864 25,119 27,464 20 40 15 Interest bearing debt 2,549 1,997 1,211 1,211 1,211 1,211 30 10 Other liabilities 13,996 15,276 17,173 18,592 19,820 20,985 20 5 Total liabilities 16,545 17,273 18,384 19,803 21,031 22,196 0 10 Shareholders' equity 1,782 2,229 2,210 3,013 4,025 5,186 -5 0 Minorities 58 42 35 4864 83 06 07 08 09E 10E 11E Total shareholders' equity 1,840 2,271 2,245 3,060 4,089 5,269 Sales growth (LHS) ROE (RHS) Net debt 1,248 90 -904 -1,621 -2,534 -3,637 Solvency Key Company Metrics Sales growth (%) -1.8 5.9 19.0 12.4 9.8 8.2 10 0 150 DB EPS growth (%) na 95.7 38.8 20.0 25.8 14.8 50 10 0 EBITDA Margin (%) 8.1 7.8 8.8 9.3 10.4 10.8 0 EBIT Margin (%) 5.0 6.3 7.5 8.0 9.1 9.6 50 Payout ratio (%) 0.0 23.9 27.0 25.0 25.0 25.0 -50 ROE (%) 10.8 23.9 38.4 41.0 38.3 33.6 -100 0 Capex/sales (%) 2.2 2.8 2.9 2.4 2.2 2.0 06 07 08 09E 10E 11E Capex/depreciation (x) 0.7 1.8 2.2 1.8 1.7 1.7 Net debt /equit y (LHS) Net interest cover (RHS) Net debt/equity (%) 67.8 4.0 -40.3 -53.0 -62.0 -69.0 Net interest cover (x) 3.0 8.0 18.3 29.4 56.0 131.1 Martin Wilkie Source: Company data, Deutsche Bank estimates +44 20 754-51956 [email protected] Page 2 Deutsche Bank AG/London 8 July 2008 Electrical Equipment Alstom Q208 Sales/orders preview Key points Order development: We model group orders of €6,221m in the quarter, although by definition order intake is lumpy and somewhat unpredictable on a quarterly basis.
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