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Department of Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering Optimising Existing Hydro Power Stations in Scotland with Floating Photovoltaics Author: Darren MacIntyre Supervisor: Nick Kelly A thesis submitted in partial fulfilment for the requirement of degree in Master of Science in Sustainable Engineering: Renewable Energy Systems and the Environment 2020 1 Copyright Declaration This thesis is the result of the author’s original research. It has been composed by the author and has not been previously submitted for examination which has led to the award of a degree. The copyright of this thesis belongs to the author under the terms of the United Kingdom Copyright Acts as qualified by University of Strathclyde Regulation 3.50. Due acknowledgement must always be made of the use of any material contained in, or derived from, this thesis. Signed: Darren MacIntyre Date:14/07/2020 2 Abstract The UK has committed to ambitious targets relating to renewable energy technology and greenhouse gas reduction. Electrical power generation from non-polluting and sustainable sources plays an important role in this regard. Floating photovoltaic farms (FPV) have great potential when co-located with hydropower plant. Benefits include water preservation and higher power generation efficiency, no land costs, lower construction costs, reduction of algae, and lowering of natural methane emissions that come from standing bodies of water. The market for FPV is dominated by nations where tropical or dry arid conditions prevail. The extent to which an FPV-PHS plant in the North of Scotland is feasible was assessed in this study. Foyer PHS operational data was collected and analysed, then modelled in HOMER Pro with proposed FPV of 125MW and 250MW installed capacities overlaid, using generic bifacial and standard monocrystalline PV panels. Optimal generation with minimal reservoir surface coverage was found to be achieved from a 250MW FPV plant using bifacial 72-cell modules, as modelled in PVSYST 7.02. Technical feasibility analysis indicates 204934 MWh of electricity annually to the grid is achievable. Capacity of 9.36%; water conservation of 206,641,830kg; and potential annual CO2(eq.) savings of 57,749 tonnes was calculated. Financial analysis of FPV over 25 years, with discount factor of 6%, returns an NPV of -£49m and IRR of 3.26%, when the electricity strike price is £50. A negotiated discount of 15% and solar panel price updated, an NPV of £11.7m and IRR of 6.73% is achievable when the electricity strike price is £60. Assumptions that FPV operational budget will be lower than conventional solar plant is disputed based on evidence of the highly detrimental impact of bird activity on FPV plants in the UK. The risk of fire resulting from panel stacking following severe weather is raised for the first time. 3 Acknowledgements I would like to thank my supervisor Dr Nicolas Kelly for his invaluable support and helpful guidance throughout this project. I am deeply indebted to him for the responsive and motivating approach he adopted throughout the process of supervision. I offer him my heartfelt gratitude. The course that Paul and other lecturers designed and delivered has been very enjoyable and interesting throughout. The knowledge gained provides me with skills and understanding of important theoretical constructs along with practical skills that stand me in good stead for the coming years. Thank you to my family, especially my mother, for supporting me through my years of study, also to my friends who have provided light-hearted relief ensuring an appropriate work-leisure balance necessary to maintain good health. My girlfriend Emma has been patient and supportive despite missing out on several social gatherings as a result of the time constraints I was under. I cannot fully express my thanks to her, she is incredibly loving and supportive. In addition, I am extremely grateful to all SSE staff for their guidance and support throughout the year. My manager and mentor, Ian Shaw is an inspiring character, who has provided me with all necessary opportunities for advancement and development throughout my career and studies. Alan McFarlane has helped me on countless occasions to extract data from PI and made time available for me to conduct analysis, for this I offer my thanks. Niall McDonald has provided me with specific site information that can only be described as invaluable. I’d also like to thank Andrés Franco Jiménez, CEO of ISIGENERE, whose expertise in the field of FPV, provided valuable information on how best to design an FPV system. Molly Cox from Wood McKenzie Consultancy also gets a special mention for responding in a timely manner to my requests for information as well as her presentations in seminars relating to financial analysis of FPV systems. This achievement would not have been possible without them. 4 Table of Contents 1 Introduction ...................................................................................................................... 14 1.1 Overview of UK FPV Plants ..................................................................................... 16 1.2 The potential of hybrid solar-hydro generation......................................................... 17 1.3 Project Aims .............................................................................................................. 18 1.4 Project Objectives ..................................................................................................... 18 1.5 Case Study ................................................................................................................. 19 1.6 Hybrid Hydro-Solar Plant ......................................................................................... 21 1.6.1 Loch Mhor ......................................................................................................... 21 2 Methodology ..................................................................................................................... 23 2.1 Report Structure ........................................................................................................ 23 2.2 Location ..................................................................................................................... 24 2.3 Software .................................................................................................................... 25 2.3.1 The PI System .................................................................................................... 25 2.3.2 MS Excel ............................................................................................................ 26 2.2.3 PVGIS ................................................................................................................ 26 2.3.3 HOMER Energy Pro .......................................................................................... 26 2.3.4 PVSYST 7.02 ..................................................................................................... 27 3 Literature Review ............................................................................................................. 27 3.1 The Global Market for Solar Photovoltaic ................................................................ 29 3.2 Floating PV: Technology Overview ......................................................................... 30 3.3 FPV System ............................................................................................................... 31 3.4 Floating Photovoltaic Market Analysis ..................................................................... 34 3.5 Distribution of FPV plants according to size as of December 2018 ......................... 36 5 3.6 Non-Standardised Cost of FPV ................................................................................. 38 3.7 South East Asia Market ............................................................................................. 40 3.8 Geographical Adoption of FPV Plant ....................................................................... 41 3.9 Location ..................................................................................................................... 43 3.10 Investment considerations ..................................................................................... 48 3.11 Module efficiency .................................................................................................. 48 3.12 Water conservation ................................................................................................ 49 3.13 Environmental impact - Ecosystem ....................................................................... 50 3.14 Risk Assessment .................................................................................................... 50 3.15 Discussion .............................................................................................................. 51 3.16 Unexpected health and safety risks and concerns ................................................. 52 3.17 Impact of Typhoon Faxia on Kyocera’s 13.7 MW floating project ...................... 54 3.18 Points to consider................................................................................................... 54 4 Results .............................................................................................................................. 55 4.1 Environmental Impact ............................................................................................... 55 4.1.1 Water Evaporation ............................................................................................
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