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Part 2 Present and Future Trends PART 2 - CONTENTS PART 2 PRESENT AND FUTURE TRENDS 2.1 THE FORM OF HOWICK 2.2 GROWTH OF HOWICK 2.3 ETHNIC ORIGIN OF POPULATION 2.4 EMPLOYMENT 2.5 DWELLINGS AND RESIDENTIAL BUILDING 2.6 CONTEXT OF THE PLANNING SCHEME HOWICK THIRD REVIEW PART 2 - PRESENT AND FUTURE TRENDS 2.1 THE FORM OF HOWICK 111 Howick settlement has existed since 1847 and is today a well established residential suburb. It is located on the shores of the Hauraki Gulf, approximately eleven kilometres north of Manukau City Centre, at the perimeter of the urban area. The Hutchinson Road and Bradbury Road ridges define the western boundary of the district. Continuing from the latter ridge is the topographical backbone of Howick, the ridge which the main road follows, with its high points at Stockade Hill and Minerva Terrace. On the seaward side, a series of ridges and valleys slope toward the cost. A number of these are marked by streams with considerable tree cover. On the landward side, the main ridge forms a basin with a southward orientation which drains to the Tamaki River. The hilly topography has had a strong effect on the roading network with many roads following the ridges. It also means that most parts of the District can enjoy views either of the sea, the countryside or of a suburban landscape. Three major factors have made Howick an attractive residential location. First, the considerable length of north-east facing coastline and beaches backed by sloping land with extensive views to the islands of the gulf. Second, the comparatively long period over which the settlement has developed which gives it a feeling of stability. Third, the separate identity of the area in its rural setting. The community has sought to retain these qualities by such actions as the improvement of public access to the beaches, the preservation of significant historic buildings and the encouragement of development which is in sympathy with such buildings. However, the third factor, identity, has been diminished by the residential development which has occurred beyond the District to the west and now links it in a continuous urban area with Pakuranga, the isthmus suburbs and central Auckland. 2.2 GROWTH OF HOWICK 2.2. 1 Historical Background Before European settlement the area was part of the lands of the Ngaitai, a sub-tribe of the Tainui. A pa once occupied the headland at the eastern end of Cockle Bay. There are several other pa sites in the surrounding areas. Land was purchased for farming in the area during the early years of European occupation. In 1847 the settlement of Howick was established as one of a series of defence posts to protect the southern and eastern approaches to Auckland. It was manned by the Royal New Zealand Fencibles, army reservists who were given land in return for seven years service. The settlement was centred around the Domain with Stockade Hill serving as a lookout and fortification. The land wars by-passed Howick and it developed into a small rural centre serving a prosperous farming community. Later it became a popular place for retirement and for holidays at the seaside. In 1922 it was granted the status of a Town District and in 1952 it became a Borough. From the late nineteen-forties to the mid-seventies it shared in the rapid growth of the whole Auckland urban area. Today it is part of Manukau City being a largely built up area which is encroaching onto the rural land to the south. 2.2.2 Population Growth Between 1961 and 1976 Howick experienced a rapid growth in population as a result of residential development. During this period population increased by 118 % - an increase of around 7,556 people. Since then the population has declined slightly to 13,945 in 1991 (Table 1 ). This 0.03% decrease is in contrast to a 25.5% increase in the population of the Southern Auckland Urban Area over the same period. ---------------A- covered by the former Howick Borough. HOWICK -1- THIRD REVIEW PART 2 - PRESENT AND FUTURE TRENDS TABLE 1: CENSUS POPULATION OF HOWICK (1961-19861 Year 1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 (provisional) Population 6,393 9,189 12,008 13,949 13,866 13,891 13,945 Intercensal 2,796 2;819 1,941 -83 25 54 Change Percentage 30.4% 23.5% 13.9% -0.6% 0.2% 0.4% Change (Source: NZ Censuses of Population & Dwellings) A number of factors have contributed to this. Among them are the general factors of the decline in the natural growth rate since 1971, and the depressed economic situation and consequent substantial emigration. In addition, with the District now largely built up the opportunities for further growth are more limited. Given current trends, it is likely that the population could steadily decline despite an increase in the number of households. Effects of this may in part be off-set by new residential development to the south of the District which will increase demand on community and commercial services within Howick. Table 2 shows the structure of Howick's population compared to that of the Southern Auckland Urban Area. In general, Howick has a more mature structure with proportionately more people in the 40 + age groups, especially those aged 60 and over, and significantly fewer children in the 0-14 age group. The proportion of population in the 15-19 age groups is very similar between the two areas. TABLE 2: AGE DISTRIBUTION 121 , 1986 AGE GROUPS HOWICK SOUTH AUCKLAND (YEARS) URBAN AREA Number Percent Number Percent 0-4 630 4.6 20,805 8.5 5-14 2,232 16.2 46,830 19.1 15-19 1,371 10.0 26,058 10.6 20-39 3,504 25.5 77,988 31.8 40-59 3,591 26.1 48,672 19.8 60-64 651 4.7 780 3.2 65+ 1,761 12.8 17,445 7.1 TOTAL 13,746 100.0 245,589 100.0 (Source: 1986 NZ Census of Population & Dwellings) 2.2.3 Future Population Growth Estimates of future population growth stated below have been based on demographic profile projections. Overall a very small population loss of around 100 people is projected over the next 15 years, if present trends continue. Notable gains in the pre-school (0-4 years) and elderly age groups (60 + years) are anticipated, off-set by population losses in the school age and teenager age groups (5-19 years) as they move into middle age. (2) u-11y Resident Population. HOWICK -2- THIRD REVIEW PART 2 - PRESENT AND FUTURE TRENDS TABLE 3: POPULATION PROJECTIONS (1991-2001) 131 Census Year 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 Population 14,000 14,100 14,000 13,800 13,400 Projections (Source: Department of Statistics, Demographic Profiles, 1989 Series) 2.3 ETHNIC ORIGIN OF POPULATION Compared with Southern Auckland as a whole the main distinguishing feature of Howick in terms of the major ethnic groups is the comparatively high proportion of persons of European origin resident in the District (Table 4). Over 96% of Howick's residents are European while 1.8% are Maori, and 0.3% Pacific Island Polynesian. Non-Europeans overall account for only 3.4% of the population. TABLE 4: ETHNIC ORIGIN DISTRIBUTION, 1986 ETHNIC ORIGIN HOWICK SOUTHERN AUCKLAND URBAN AREA European 96.6% 67.3% NZ Maori 1.8% 15.2% Polynesian 0.3% 13.4% Other 1.3% 4.1% (Source: Manukau City Council estimates using 1986 NZ Census of Population & Dwellings) 2.4 EMPLOYMENT Between 1981 and 1986 Howick's labour force increased from 6,501 to just over 7, 160 (Table 5). During this period the number of people in the full-time labour force decreased slightly, while the participation in part-time employment by both men and women increased significantly. TABLE 5: LABOUR FORCE, HOWICK (1981-86) CENSUS YEAR 1981 1986 PERCENT CHANGE MALES Full time 3,786 3,783 -0.1% Part time 141 288 104.3% FEMALES Full time 1,980 1,938 -2.1 % Part time 594 1,158 94.9% TOTAL Full time 5,766 5,721 -0.8% Part time 735 1,446 96.7% (Source: 1981, 1986 NZ Census of Population & Dwellings) (3) Auumes fTltldium fertility and fTltldium migration. HOWICK -3- THIRD REVIEW PART 2 - PRESENT AND FUTURE TRENDS When occupational groups are combined into white-collar occupations and . blue-collar occupations, Howick has significantly higher proportions of residents engaged in white-collar occupations '41 • In 1981 white-collar workers outnumbered blue-collar workers by 2,010 to 1,713 (or 54.0% to 46.0%). By 1986, total white-collar employment outnumbered blue-collar employment by 3,636 to 1,947 (or 65.1 % to 34.9%). This decline in the relative position of blue-collar occupations mirrors the long-term relative decline in manufacturing occupations. Howick is now primarily a dormitory suburb with limited local employment opportunities. Thus a large number of Howick's workers commute to jobs outside the District. Main employment centres are East Tamaki/Wiri, Mt Wellington/Penrose, and central Auckland. This employment pattern places strains on the transport network and means there is a high volume of traffic on the routes to the west and south, especially at peak periods. 2.5 DWELLINGS AND RESIDENTIAL BUILDING In 1986 there were 4,785 occupied dwellings in Howick. Of the occupied dwellings, 3,777 were separate houses and 915 multi-unit dwellings. The proportion of dwelling types in Howick is similar to that in the Southern Auckland Urban Area (Table 6).
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