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Understanding the Relative Impacts of Natural Processes and Human Activities on the Hydrology of the Central Rift Valley Lakes, East Africa

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Understanding the Relative Impacts of Natural Processes and Human Activities on the Hydrology of the Central Rift Valley Lakes, East Africa HYDROLOGICAL PROCESSES Hydrol. Process. (2015) Published online in Wiley Online Library (wileyonlinelibrary.com) DOI: 10.1002/hyp.10490 Understanding the relative impacts of natural processes and human activities on the hydrology of the Central Rift Valley lakes, East Africa Wondwosen M. Seyoum, Adam M. Milewski* and Michael C. Durham Department of Geology, University of Georgia, Athens, GA, USA Abstract: Significant changes have been observed in the hydrology of Central Rift Valley (CRV) lakes in Ethiopia, East Africa as a result of both natural processes and human activities during the past three decades. This study applied an integrated approach (remote sensing, hydrologic modelling, and statistical analysis) to understand the relative effects of natural processes and human activities over a sparsely gauged CRV basin. Lake storage estimates were calculated from a hydrologic model constructed without inputs from human impacts such as water abstraction and compared with satellite-based (observed) lake storage measurements to characterize the magnitude of human-induced impacts. A non-parametric Mann–Kendall test was used to detect the presence of climatic trends (e.g. a decreasing or increasing trends in precipitation), while the Standard Precipitation Index (SPI) analysis was used to assess the long-term, inter-annual climate variability within the basin. Results indicate human activities (e.g. abstraction) significantly contributed to the changes in the hydrology of the lakes, while no statistically significant climatic trend was seen in the basin, however inter-annual natural climate variability, extreme dryness, and prolonged drought has negatively affected the lakes. The relative contributions of natural and human-induced impacts on the lakes were quantified and evaluated by comparing hydrographs of the CRV lakes. Lake Abiyata has lost ~6.5 m in total lake height between 1985 and 2006, 70% (~4.5 m) of the loss has been attributed to human-induced causes, whereas the remaining 30% is related to natural climate variability. The relative impact analysis utilized in this study could potentially be used to better plan and create effective water-management practices in the basin and demonstrates the utility of this integrated methodology for similar studies assessing the relative natural and human-induced impacts on lakes in data sparse areas. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. KEY WORDS hydrologic modelling; remote sensing; natural climate variability; human impact; rift valley lakes; East Africa; Ethiopia Received 12 December 2014; Accepted 12 March 2015 INTRODUCTION condition, are as significant as human-driven processes that affect the water cycle (Hulme et al., 1999; Chen The effect of climate change (e.g. changes in precipitation et al., 2012). Understanding the relative impact of both and temperature) and human activities (e.g. water natural and human-induced processes on the water cycle abstraction and land-use change) on the water cycle is a is crucial for considering appropriate water policy major concern in water resources management (St. measures and thus the purpose of this research. Jacques et al., 2010; Ferguson and Maxwell 2012). Significant changes have been observed in the Humans impact the hydrologic cycle at various scales. At hydrology of the Rift Valley lakes in Ethiopia over the a global scale, human-driven climate change is observed past four decades. A number of lakes (e.g. Lake Beseka through alternating patterns and intensity of precipitation and Lake Awassa) expanded while others (e.g. Lake and temperature (Bates et al., 2008), which in turn affects Abiyata) have declined in size or storage (Ayenew 2007). surface and groundwater storages. At local scales, water Human interventions such as abstraction from lakes or abstraction and consumption by humans directly alter tributaries, climate change, irrigation, deforestation, and surface water (e.g. lakes and rivers) and groundwater urbanization have all been known to disrupt the natural storages. On the other hand, natural climate variability, flow regime of the lakes and the overall hydrologic system variation in intensity, and duration of wet and dry with potentially irreversible damages. For example, Lake Haromaya, East Africa dried out in 2005 as a result of excessive surface and groundwater withdrawal *Correspondence to: Adam M. Milewski, Department of Geology, University of Georgia, Athens, GA, USA. (Alemayehu et al., 2006b). Development of large-scale E-mail: [email protected] irrigation and industrial abstraction from the Central Rift Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. W. M. SEYOUM, A. M. MILEWSKI AND M. C. DURHAM Valley (CRV) lakes and their tributaries dates back to the interconnected lakes: Lake Abiyata, Lake Langano, and early 1980s. As a result, poor water management practices Lake Ziway (Figure 1). Lake Ziway, located within the have altered the hydrology of most lakes in the region upstream section of the CRV, is fed by two major (Legesse et al., 2004; Ayenew 2007). perennial rivers: Meki River and Katar River. Lake Ziway Lakes naturally fluctuate in response to natural climate overflows by way of the Bulbula River to Lake Abiyata. variability. For instance, Makin et al., (1976) observed a Similarly, Lake Langano receives surface inflow from the significant lake level fluctuation in the CRV lakes in the eastern escarpment of the Rift Valley and overflows 1940s and 1960s, a period of limited or no human intermittently to Lake Abiyata. Human-induced abstrac- activities in the area. During this time, the highest tions from the lakes and their tributaries are primarily recorded change in Lake Abiyata’s lake level, which is used for agricultural and industrial production in the area. equivalent to the recent change estimated in this study, Large-scale agricultural abstraction (irrigation) from Lake was 7 m. Street FA (1979), through the use of aerial Ziway, its tributaries, and the Bulbula River is used in the photographs, estimated the Lake Abiyata surface area to production of horticulture, vegetables, and flowers. be 143, 182, and 168 km2 in 1956, 1972, and 1974, Industrial abstraction from Lake Abiyata is primarily respectively. During this period, the lakes are assumed to used for soda ash production. In the early to mid-2000s, be responding to the natural condition with little human the total annual water use in the basin was estimated to be influence. Similar magnitudes of variations in lake size ~160 Million Cubic Meters (MCM) (Jansen et al., 2007). were also determined in this study during the period of The CRV basin is bounded to the east and west by the 1985–2010 when human influences were significant. escarpment of the Rift Valley and the highlands. Therefore, the hypothesis of this study is that both Topographically, this region is characterized by moun- natural climate variability and human activities affected tainous terrain on the eastern and western escarpments the hydrology of the lakes in the CRV basin, East Africa. (elevation ~4200 m) and flat to gentle slopes of the rift The hydrology of the Rift Valley has been a subject of valley floor (elevation ~1600 m) (Figure 1). The CRV investigations in the past (Makin et al., 1976; Cherenet lakes receive runoff from the eastern and western 1993; Darling et al., 1996; Hailemarian 1999; Ayenew escarpment of the Rift Valley. Lake Ziway (~450 km2) 2007) with several specifically focused on the CRV basin is a fresh water lake with an average surface elevation of lakes (Kebede et al., 1994; Legesse et al., 2004; Ayenew ~1636 m and an average depth of ~5 m. Lake Langano and Gebreegziabher 2006). Most of the studies used (~250 km2), a slightly saline (brackish) lake, has an traditional methods such as lake water balance calcula- average surface elevation of ~1585 m and an average tions and hydrogeochemical approaches (Ayenew 2002; depth of ~55 m. The saline Lake Abiyata (~115 km2) has Alemayehu et al., 2006a). Unfortunately, quantitative an average surface elevation of ~1575 m and an average analysis to understand the relative impact of natural depth ~14 m. processes and the human activities on the lakes or the Generally, the CRV basin has two climatic zones: (1) CRV basin is not available. Some of the cited research sub-humid to humid climate of the escarpment and followed localized approaches focusing only on lakes highland regions (eastern and western sections), receiving (Legesse et al., 2004). Although the ultimate effect is on relatively high annual precipitation (~1050 mm) and low the lakes, the impacts could be basin-wide affecting the temperatures (15 °C) and (2) semi-arid climate of the Rift rivers and the tributaries that feed the lakes. Therefore, the Valley floor (central section) receiving relatively low objective of this study was to conduct a thorough annual precipitation (~700 mm) and average high tem- investigation of the relative impact of both natural peratures (20 °C). June, July, and August are typically the processes and human activities on the hydrology of the wettest months of the year producing relatively high CRV lakes using an integrated approach (remote sensing, rainfall, while December, January, and February are hydrologic modelling, and statistical analysis). typically the driest months. The Meki River and Katar River catchments, total catchment area of 5200 km2 (~50% of the total basin area), replenish Lake Ziway throughout the year with average annual flows of 410 and STUDY AREA 265 MCM, respectively. The Main Ethiopian Rift (MER), part of the Great East African Rift Valley system, is subdivided into three sections: the Northeastern, the Central, and the Southwestern. METHOD Clusters of lakes are found occupying the floor of the Central and Southwestern sections. The CRV basin, a part of The focus of this study was to integrate different the central section of MER, is an endorheic basin with an techniques (remote sensing, hydrologic modelling, and area of 10 185 km2 and has three major surficially statistical analysis) with the best available data (in situ and Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
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