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Bum Dope, Blowback, and the Bomb: the Effect of Bad Information on Policy-Maker Beliefs and Crisis Stability
Chapter 8 Bum Dope, Blowback, and the Bomb: The Effect of Bad Information on Policy-Maker Beliefs and Crisis Stability Jeffrey Lewis How might bad information affect crisis stability? We like to imag- ine that elites—military offi cials, politicians, and experts—will be immune to the kind of rumor, disinformation, and propaganda with which the internet is awash. This chapter explores that notion, with a nod to political scientist Stephen Van Evera’s notion of blowback—the idea that propaganda can, in fact, warp elite perceptions. Van Evera was concerned about psychological blurring between rhetoric and sin- cere belief while others, like Jack Snyder, another expert on interna- tional relations, emphasized the risk that policy makers might become trapped by political rhetoric.1 This chapter is principally concerned with this idea: that bad infor- mation, even deliberate disinformation knowingly planted by some cyn- ical elites, might “blow back” (or echo) through a wider range of elites and worsen a nuclear crisis. It examines two contemporary case studies of bad information, both of which help illustrate how such informa- tion—to use George P. Shultz’s colorful phrase, “bum dope”—could undermine crisis stability.2 I conclude that the same pathologies seen in online discourse could undermine stability, even in a serious crisis involving nuclear weapons. In short, policy makers tend to engage in public rhetoric that, in turn, shapes their own thinking. Often such statements are propagandistic in their initial formulation. But as they become part of the public dis- course, policy makers tend to believe them. This carries additional risk HH7667-Trinkunas.indb7667-Trinkunas.indb 115959 11/17/20/17/20 88:49:49 AAMM 160 JEFFREY LEWIS in an era of social media. -
2018 Sartorius Christopher Ma
UNIVERSITY OF OKLAHOMA GRADUATE COLLEGE WARNING INTELLIGENCE IN NUCLEAR CRISIS MANAGEMENT: AVOIDING CATASTROPHIC MISCALCULATION A DISSERTATION SUBMITTED TO THE GRADUATE FACULTY in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the Degree of DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY By CHRISTOPHER M. SARTORIUS Norman, OK 2018 WARNING INTELLIGENCE IN NUCLEAR CRISIS MANAGMENT: AVOIDING CATASTROPHIC MISCALCULATION A DISSERTATION APPROVED FOR THE DEPARTMENT OF POLITICAL SCIENCE BY ___________________________ Dr. Ronald K. Gaddie, Chair ___________________________ Dr. Colin M. Barry ___________________________ Dr. Deven E. Carlson ___________________________ Dr. Jorge L. Mendoza ___________________________ Dr. Shad B. Satterthwaite © Copyright by CHRISTOPHER M. SARTORIUS 2018 All Rights Reserved. This dissertation is dedicated to my family and all intelligence professionals, military and civilian, past and present, who have dedicated their lives to protecting our great nation and our allies. Acknowledgements Working on this doctoral dissertation has been both a joy and a challenge. This work would not have been possible without the support and encouragement of countless individuals. At the most personal level, I would like to thank my wife, Fulvia, for her support over the past three years of this doctoral program and for her care and love over the past 25 years. I wish to thank my son, Konrad, for providing inspiration, much needed breaks in my work routine, and for sharing lunch together at the OU cafeteria followed by our fun table tennis matches. I also would like to thank my parents, Tim and Wanda Sartorius, for instilling in me the value of a great education. I would also like to thank Dr. Shad Satterthwaite, always friendly, open, and upbeat for enthusiastically encouraging me to pursue a doctoral degree at OU and Dr. -
Bill Robinson
To: Bill Robinson <[email protected]> From: "Howard W. Hallman" <[email protected]> Subject: Re: Canadian churches and abolition Cc: Bcc: X-Attachments: At 12:43 PM 11/16/98 -0500, Bill Robinson wrote: >Dear Howard - > >Project Ploughshares, which is a project of the Canadian Council of >Churches, is considering the feasibility of organizing some kind of >outreach project between Canadian church leaders and church leaders in >other countries on the subject of nuclear abolition.... December 1, 1998 Dear Bill, I've been hanging onto your communication of November 16 about getting the Canadian Council of Churches to reach out to other countries on nuclear abolition. Since my response is somewhat complex, I'm just getting around to replying. Basically it's a good idea. Because the Canadian government is questioning some of the cold war assumptions about nuclear deterrence and has led the way in land mines, it would be useful for Canadian religious bodies to provide similar world leadership within the religious community. As you may recall, I initiated an effort related to the 1998 session of the NPT Preparatory Committee in Geneva that (1) produced a statement to delegates from Dr. Konrad Raiser, general secretary of the World Council of Churches, and Godried Cardinal Danneels, president of Pax Christi International, (2) sponsored a reception for delegates co-hosted by Dr. Raiser and Cardinal Danneels, and (3) developed a presentation to delegates on spiritual and moral values. I'm sending separately the Raiser-Danneels statement with some endorsers. I can send you the presentation to delegates if you want it. -
The Origins of Nunn-Lugar and Cooperative Threat Reduction
CASE STUDY SERIES 3 The Origins of Nunn-Lugar and Cooperative Threat Reduction Paul I. Bernstein and Jason D. Wood Center for the Study of Weapons of Mass Destruction National Defense University Center for the Study of Weapons of Mass Destruction National Defense University DR. JOHN F. REICHART Director DR. W. SETH CARUS Deputy Director, Distinguished Research Fellow Since its inception in 1994, the Center for the Study of Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD Center) has been at the forefront of research on the implications of weapons of mass destruction for U.S. security. Originally focusing on threats to the military, the WMD Center now also applies its expertise and body of research to the challenges of homeland security. The center’s mandate includes research, education, and outreach. Research focuses on understanding the security challenges posed by WMD and on fashioning effective responses thereto. The Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff has designated the center as the focal point for WMD education in the joint professional military education system. Education programs, including its courses on countering WMD and consequence management, enhance awareness in the next generation of military and civilian leaders of the WMD threat as it relates to defense and homeland security policy, programs, technology, and operations. As a part of its broad outreach efforts, the WMD Center hosts annual symposia on key issues bringing together leaders and experts from the government and private sectors. Visit the center online at www.ndu.edu/WMDCenter/. Cover: Russian and Ukraine defense ministers and U.S. Defense Secretary William J. Perry plant sunflowers on site of dismantled missile silo in Pervomaysk, Ukraine, June 1996. -
Finding a Diplomatic Solution to the North Korean Crisis
CONGRESSIONAL PROGRAM Finding a Diplomatic Solution to the North Korean Crisis March 2-4, 2018 Stanford, California Copyright @ 2018 by The Aspen Institute The Aspen Institute 2300 N Street Northwest Washington, DC 20037 Published in the United States of America in 2018 by The Aspen Institute All rights reserved Printed in the United States of America Pub # 18/006 Finding a Diplomatic Solution to the North Korean Crisis March 2-4, 2018 The Aspen Institute Congressional Program Table of Contents Rapporteur’s Summary Elliot Serbin ................................................................................................................................................. 3 Finding a Diplomatic Solution to the North Korean Crisis: Historical Context ......................................... 13 Kathleen Stephens What We Really Know About North Korea’s Nuclear Weapons, And What We Don’t Yet Know for Sure .................................................................................................... 17 Siegfried Hecker DPRK National Strategic Considerations, Objectives ............................................................................... 21 Sue Mi Terry Former Defense Secretary William Perry on why we didn't go to war with North Korea ........................................................................................... 37 Barbara Demick Sanctions on North Korea ........................................................................................................................... 39 Marcus Noland The Price of War With -
Nuclear Risk Reduction: a Framework for Analysis
NUCLEAR RISK REDUCTION A FRAMEWORK FOR ANALYSIS Wilfred Wan ABOUT THE AUTHOR ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS Wilfred Wan is a researcher at UNIDIR. He Support from UNIDIR core funders has published on topics such as nuclear provides the foundation for all of the proliferation, sanctions, and the global Institute’s activities. This research area of non-proliferation regime. Recently, he was the Weapons of Mass Destruction and the author of Nuclear Risk Reduction: The Other Strategic Weapons Programme is State of Ideas, published in 2019 by UNIDIR, supported by the Governments of Australia, as well as Regional Pathways to Nuclear Finland, Sweden, and Switzerland. Nonproliferation, published in 2018 by the University of Georgia Press. Wan was UNIDIR’s Renata Dwan, John Borrie, Pavel previously a Japan Society for the Podvig, Daniel Porras, James Revill, Promotion of Science–United Nations Augusta Cohen, and Roberta Abdanur all University (UNU) Postdoctoral Fellow with provided invaluable advice, support, and the UNU Centre for Policy Research. He assistance on this paper. The author would holds a PhD in political science from the also like to acknowledge in particular Lewis University of California, Irvine. Dunn and Ankit Panda for their inputs. ABOUT UNIDIR NOTE The United Nations Institute for The designations employed and the Disarmament Research (UNIDIR)—an presentation of the material in this autonomous institute within the United publication do not imply the expression of Nations—conducts research on any opinion whatsoever on the part of the disarmament and security. UNIDIR is based Secretariat of the United Nations in Geneva, Switzerland, the centre for concerning the legal status of any country, bilateral and multilateral disarmament and territory, city or area, or of its authorities, or non-proliferation negotiations, and home concerning the delimitation of its frontiers of the Conference on Disarmament. -
Governing the Bomb: Civilian Control and Democratic
DCAF GOVERNING THE BOMB Civilian Control and Democratic Accountability of Nuclear Weapons edited by hans born, bates gill and heiner hänggi Governing the Bomb Civilian Control and Democratic Accountability of Nuclear Weapons STOCKHOLM INTERNATIONAL PEACE RESEARCH INSTITUTE SIPRI is an independent international institute dedicated to research into conflict, armaments, arms control and disarmament. Established in 1966, SIPRI provides data, analysis and recommendations, based on open sources, to policymakers, researchers, media and the interested public. The Governing Board is not responsible for the views expressed in the publications of the Institute. GOVERNING BOARD Göran Lennmarker, Chairman (Sweden) Dr Dewi Fortuna Anwar (Indonesia) Dr Alexei G. Arbatov (Russia) Ambassador Lakhdar Brahimi (Algeria) Jayantha Dhanapala (Sri Lanka) Dr Nabil Elaraby (Egypt) Ambassador Wolfgang Ischinger (Germany) Professor Mary Kaldor (United Kingdom) The Director DIRECTOR Dr Bates Gill (United States) Signalistgatan 9 SE-169 70 Solna, Sweden Telephone: +46 8 655 97 00 Fax: +46 8 655 97 33 Email: [email protected] Internet: www.sipri.org Governing the Bomb Civilian Control and Democratic Accountability of Nuclear Weapons EDITED BY HANS BORN, BATES GILL AND HEINER HÄNGGI OXFORD UNIVERSITY PRESS 2010 1 Great Clarendon Street, Oxford OX2 6DP Oxford University Press is a department of the University of Oxford. It furthers the University’s objective of excellence in research, scholarship, and education by publishing worldwide in Oxford New York Auckland Cape Town Dar es Salaam Hong Kong Karachi Kuala Lumpur Madrid Melbourne Mexico City Nairobi New Delhi Shanghai Taipei Toronto With offices in Argentina Austria Brazil Chile Czech Republic France Greece Guatemala Hungary Italy Japan Poland Portugal Singapore South Korea Switzerland Thailand Turkey Ukraine Vietnam Oxford is a registered trade mark of Oxford University Press in the UK and in certain other countries Published in the United States by Oxford University Press Inc., New York © SIPRI 2010 All rights reserved. -
The Impact of Artificial Intelligence on Strategic Stability and Nuclear Risk Volume I Euro-Atlantic Perspectives Edited by Vincent Boulanin
SIPRI THE IMPACT OF Policy Paper ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE ON STRATEGIC STABILITY AND NUCLEAR RISK Volume I Euro-Atlantic Perspectives edited by vincent boulanin May 2019 STOCKHOLM INTERNATIONAL PEACE RESEARCH INSTITUTE SIPRI is an independent international institute dedicated to research into conflict, armaments, arms control and disarmament. Established in 1966, SIPRI provides data, analysis and recommendations, based on open sources, to policymakers, researchers, media and the interested public. The Governing Board is not responsible for the views expressed in the publications of the Institute. GOVERNING BOARD Ambassador Jan Eliasson, Chair (Sweden) Dr Dewi Fortuna Anwar (Indonesia) Dr Vladimir Baranovsky (Russia) Espen Barth Eide (Norway) Jean-Marie Guéhenno (France) Dr Radha Kumar (India) Dr Patricia Lewis (Ireland/United Kingdom) Dr Jessica Tuchman Mathews (United States) DIRECTOR Dan Smith (United Kingdom) Signalistgatan 9 SE-169 72 Solna, Sweden Telephone: + 46 8 655 9700 Email: [email protected] Internet: www.sipri.org The Impact of Artificial Intelligence on Strategic Stability and Nuclear Risk Volume I Euro-Atlantic Perspectives edited by vincent boulanin May 2019 Contents Preface vii Acknowledgements viii Abbreviations ix Executive Summary xi Introduction 1. Introduction 3 Box 1.1. Key definitions 4 Part I. Demystifying artificial intelligence and its military implications 11 2. Artificial intelligence: A primer 13 I. What is AI? 13 II. Machine learning: A key enabler of the AI renaissance 15 III. Autonomy: A key by-product of the AI renaissance 21 IV. Conclusions 25 Box 2.1. Deep learning 16 Box 2.2. Generative adversarial networks 18 Box 2.3. Automatic, automated, autonomous 23 Figure 2.1. Approaches to the definition and categorization of autonomous 22 systems 3. -
General Assembly Official Records Fifty-Third Session First Committee 21St Meeting Monday, 2 November 1998, 3 P.M
United Nations A/C.1/53/PV.21 General Assembly Official Records Fifty-third Session First Committee 21st Meeting Monday, 2 November 1998, 3 p.m. New York Chairman: Mr. Mernier ...................................... (Belgium) The meeting was called to order at 3 p.m. for L.47 on such an important issue as nuclear disarmament is reflected in its sponsorship which, at this time of Agenda items 63 to 80 (continued) introducing the draft resolution, stands at 51. If sponsorship is growing further, so is the support for the draft resolution Thematic discussion on item subjects; introduction and among Member States. consideration of all draft resolutions submitted under all items The resolution adopted as 50/70 P at the fiftieth session in 1995 was the first to introduce, inter alia, the The Chairman (interpretation from French): The concept of a phased programme of reductions in the nuclear Committee will continue and conclude this afternoon the arsenals of the nuclear-weapon States leading to the total second stage of its work. Before calling on the first speaker elimination of nuclear weapons, the concept of the need to on my list I should like to point out that before the end of commence multilateral negotiations in the Conference on the meeting I intend to remind everyone of the rules of Disarmament in parallel with and complementary to procedure to be applied during the voting that will start bilateral negotiations, and the concept of de-emphasizing the tomorrow. role of nuclear weapons. These three main concepts together with other proposed important interrelated measures form Mr. -
Authority to Order the Use of Nuclear Weapons Hearing
S. HRG. 115–439 AUTHORITY TO ORDER THE USE OF NUCLEAR WEAPONS HEARING BEFORE THE COMMITTEE ON FOREIGN RELATIONS UNITED STATES SENATE ONE HUNDRED FIFTEENTH CONGRESS FIRST SESSION NOVEMBER 14, 2017 Printed for the use of the Committee on Foreign Relations ( Available via the World Wide Web: http://www.fdsys.gpo.gov U.S. GOVERNMENT PUBLISHING OFFICE 34–311 PDF WASHINGTON : 2019 VerDate Mar 15 2010 11:20 Jan 18, 2019 Jkt 000000 PO 00000 Frm 00001 Fmt 5011 Sfmt 5011 S:\FULL COMMITTEE\HEARING FILES\NOV. 14, 2017 HEARING\34-311.TXT MIKE FOREI-42327 with DISTILLER COMMITTEE ON FOREIGN RELATIONS BOB CORKER, Tennessee, Chairman JAMES E. RISCH, Idaho BENJAMIN L. CARDIN, Maryland MARCO RUBIO, Florida ROBERT MENENDEZ, New Jersey RON JOHNSON, Wisconsin JEANNE SHAHEEN, New Hampshire JEFF FLAKE, Arizona CHRISTOPHER A. COONS, Delaware CORY GARDNER, Colorado TOM UDALL, New Mexico TODD, YOUNG, Indiana CHRISTOPHER MURPHY, Connecticut JOHN BARRASSO, Wyoming TIM KAINE, Virginia JOHNNY ISAKSON, Georgia EDWARD J. MARKEY, Massachusetts ROB PORTMAN, Ohio JEFF MERKLEY, Oregon RAND PAUL, Kentucky CORY A. BOOKER, New Jersey TODD WOMACK, Staff Director JESSICA LEWIS, Democratic Staff Director JOHN DUTTON, Chief Clerk (II) VerDate Mar 15 2010 11:20 Jan 18, 2019 Jkt 000000 PO 00000 Frm 00002 Fmt 5904 Sfmt 5904 S:\FULL COMMITTEE\HEARING FILES\NOV. 14, 2017 HEARING\34-311.TXT MIKE FOREI-42327 with DISTILLER CONTENTS Page Corker, Hon. Bob, U.S. Senator from Tennessee .................................................. 1 Cardin, Hon. Benjamin L., U.S. Senator from Maryland ..................................... 2 Kehler, General C. Robert, U.S. Air Force, Retired, Former Commander, United States Strategic Command, Alexandria, VA ........................................ -
Congressional Record—Senate S2099
March 17, 1998 CONGRESSIONAL RECORD Ð SENATE S2099 talk about that a little bit. Again, re- of Americans in seeing to it that all when you put it all together, you have lating to some of the innovations going children, whether they live in Chicago not served transportation from one end on in Illinois, there is a consortium of or California or Detroit or in Florida or of this country to the other. You have some 20 school districts in the Chicago in Georgia or in AlabamaÐthat all left the issue of transportation up to area. It is called the First in the World children in this country receive the the resources of the specific and dis- Consortium. They lived up to their best possible education that we can crete communities and, more to the name because in the international give them. It is particularly important point, the property tax base that that math and science tests of which I spoke in this information age, given the tech- community can resort to. That is how earlier, this group of schools scored nological revolution, because the com- we fund education in this country. By first in the world. They were all public mand of and the ability to manipulate relying on the local property tax base, school students and they scored first in and use information will be more im- we depend entirely on the accident of math and scienceÐthe public school portant in the workforce of the future geography and demographics whether system, and they received the best re- than it is today. -
“Nunn-Lugar” Cooperative Threat Reduction Program: an Effective Regime to Stem Proliferation of Weapons of Mass Destruction
THE “NUNN-LUGAR” COOPERATIVE THREAT REDUCTION PROGRAM: AN EFFECTIVE REGIME TO STEM PROLIFERATION OF WEAPONS OF MASS DESTRUCTION A Ph.D. Dissertation by AYLİN G. GÜRZEL Department of International Relations İhsan Doğramacı Bilkent University Ankara May 2012 THE “NUNN-LUGAR” COOPERATIVE THREAT REDUCTION PROGRAM: AN EFFECTIVE REGIME TO STEM PROLIFERATION OF WEAPONS OF MASS DESTRUCTION The Graduate School of Economics and Social Sciences of Bilkent University by AYLİN G. GÜRZEL In Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree of DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPY in THE DEPARTMENT OF INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS İHSAN DOĞRAMACI BILKENT UNIVERSITY ANKARA May 2012 I certify that I have read this thesis and have found that it is fully adequate, in scope, and in quality, as a thesis for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in International Relations. ……………………………… Asst. Prof. Özgür ÖZDAMAR Supervisor I certify that I have read this thesis and have found that it is fully adequate, in scope, and in quality, as a thesis for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in International Relations. ………………………………… Prof. Dr. Mustafa KİBAROĞLU Examining Committee Member I certify that I have read this thesis and have found that it is fully adequate, in scope, and in quality, as a thesis for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in International Relations. …………………………... Assoc. Prof. Pınar BİLGIN Examining Committee Member I certify that I have read this thesis and have found that it is fully adequate, in scope, and in quality, as a thesis for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in International Relations. ……………………… Asst. Prof. Pınar İPEK Examining Committee Member I certify that I have read this thesis and have found that it is fully adequate, in scope, and in quality, as a thesis for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in International Relations.