Talking points Arturo J. Cruz S. The Politics Behind the New US/Cuba Relationship. Campus WK. 18 May 2015. INCAE Presidential Advisory Council Meeting.

Providing context to the process of reestablishing diplomatic relations between Cuba and the USA

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On November 4th 1979, we have the beginning of 52 US diplomats becoming hostages to the madness of the Iranian revolution. The hostage crisis lasted 444 days, ending on January 20th 1981, precisely the day that Ronald Reagan assumed the presidency of the USA.

Also, during Christmas 1979, 85 thousand Soviet soldiers entered Afghanistan.

And during the first week of April 1980, the Peruvian embassy in Havana was invaded by what the government of Cuba came lo label escorias, i.e., Cubans wanting to leave the Island. The takeover of the Peruvian embassy ended when the Cuban government allowed the escorias to leave the country through the port of Mariel. Between April and October of 1980, close to 125,000 thousand Cubans arrived in Florida, overwhelming local authorities and traumatizing the great majority of American citizens.

In November of 1980, RR is elected President of the USA with 489 electoral votes, including of course, those of Florida.

I am not saying that Mariel on its own was responsible for the electoral defeat of President Carter, but it was an important addition to the aggregate of Iran, Afghanistan, and other issues relating to the economy and the mood of the American public.

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The trauma that Mariel caused in US politics, was immediately noticed by Cuban officials, who became aware of the leverage they had acquired in its dealings with the US government. If the occasion required it, Cuba's very efficient coercive apparatus, would become negligent in the exercise of its duties, allowing the Miami Cubans to come by boat to the island to take their relatives and friends back to the States.

In 1994, during moments of turmoil within Cuba and tensions with the Clinton administration, Comandante Fidel Castro, besides personally facing the protestors in the streets of Habana, instructed its police force not to intervene in what became for a few days a mini lift to Florida, reviving among the staffers at the White House, memories of the nightmare of Mariel.

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An exodus of Cubans to Florida without any sense of order alerted US policy makers, regardless of party affiliation, to the need of a politically stable Cuba, no matter the nature of its government.

For some time now, most US policy makers have favored the promotion of some kind of soft landing in post Fidel's Cuba, opting for an orderly succession, rather than facing the uncertainty of a democratic transition which runs the risk of leaving Cuba without a strong authority just 90 miles from its shores.

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Moreover, for US policy makers, the Cuban regime has proven to be one of the best when it comes to the effective exercise of raw power. In 1989, under the guidance of Raul Castro, Arnaldo Ochoa, one of the most glorious generals of the Cuban army, and Tony de la Guardia, a member of Special Forces attached to the Ministry of Interior, and personally close to Comandante Fidel Castro, were tried by a military tribunal accused of drug dealing, among other crimes, and shot. Soon after, Jose Abrantes, the former Minister of Interior, in charge of Comandante Castro's personal security, while in prison died of a heart attack.

The sub/text for the other generals was clear.

And more important than anything else, the Armed Forces and the Ministry of Interior were united under the single command of Raul Castro. The coercive apparatus achieved perfect cohesion before the perfect storm reached Cuba with the final collapse of the Soviet Union.

With the termination of Soviet aid, Cuban imports went from 8.2 BUSD in 1989 to only 1.7 BUSD in 1993, and during those years the economy shrank by 41%. Even before those horrendous years, since 1986, the Cuban economy had reached a point of stagnation, in spite of the fact that as a proportion of the equivalent of their GNP, the investment ratio had increased dramatically.

And in spite of the Soviet Union collapsing, the regime endured.

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The notion of an orderly succession in Cuba has recently gained momentum among the majority of US policy makers with the debacles of the Bush Doctrine in Iraq and Afghanistan, and the disappointing results, so far, of the Arab Spring. I am not dismissing the powerful Democracy Lobby in Washington, but at least for the next few years, the argument that favors liberal democracy as the universal form of government that flows with great ease among the peoples of the world, has lost some of its glamour.

However, the way in which President Obama has presented his dramatic rapprochement with the Cuba of Raul Castro, cannot be seen only in real politick terms. The American public would not stand for that. In order to engage with

2 Cuba, President Obama needs the cover of the Pope, and a higher purpose, which is to strengthen Cuba's civil society as he pointed out in his historical speech of December 17, 2014. In the same speech, President Obama also suggested, that closeness between US and Cuba, would bring to the Island greater economic liberalization, which inevitably, with the passing of time, would bring greater political openness and even democracy to Cuba.

Florida and Electoral Politics

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Florida and New York, each counts with 29 votes in the Electoral College, below California with 55 and Texas with 38. Followed by Illinois with 22, Pennsylvania with 20, and Ohio with 18.

In the 2000 presidential elections, George W. Bush won the popular vote in Florida by a thin margin of 537 votes, while in the elections of 2004, even though he won Florida with 52,1% of the popular vote, a confortable lead, it was not a formidable victory.

In recent years, Florida has become a heterogeneous State when it comes to political views, with Cuban Americans dominating most of South Florida.

In the last two presidential elections, President Obama got Florida. And according to exit polls, in the 2012 election, 49% of Cuban Americans voted in South Florida for Obama.

The attachment by Cuban Americans to the Republican Party remains strong. Cuban Americans who are registered to vote in south Florida, 53% register as Republicans, 25% as Democrats, and 22% as independents. However, compared to 1991, the attachment of Cuban Americans to the Republican Party has gotten weaker. Then, 70% registered Republicans, 16% Democrats and 14% Independents.

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Poll conducted among Cuban Americans in Miami Dade County between February/May 2014 Cuba Research Institute, Florida International University.

The lead question, reestablishment of diplomatic relations with Cuba?

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Years in which they Favor Oppose arrived in the USA

1959/64 47% 53%

1965/73 40% 60%

1974/80 49% 51%

1981/84 65% 35%

1995/14 80% 20%

Note 53% of the Cuban Americans register to vote are inclined for a presidential candidate willing to reestablish diplomatic relations with Cuba.

In the same poll, 62% of Cuban Americans between 18/29 years of age oppose the embargo, as well as 58% of those who have arrived in the US since 1995. Among Cuban Americans who are register to vote 51% favor the embargo while 49% oppose the embargo. 69% of all Cuban Americans favor lifting travel restrictions while 71% approve people to people travel. Curiously, 63% of the Cuban Americans who were polled believe that Cuba should remain in the very short list of countries designated as sponsors of terrorism along with Syria, Sudan, and Iran.

US Congress

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Since March of 1996, The Cuban Liberty Act gives US Congress the mandate to lift the embargo. The 114 Congress is totally in the hands of the Republicans

House 247 R 188 D

Senate 54 R 44 D 2 I

However, the peculiarity of this Congress is that a good number of newly elected Republicans are in debt with the US Chamber of Commerce. Under the leadership of Thomas Donohue, the Chamber opposed within Republican primaries candidates affiliated to the Tea Party. The US Chamber of Commerce is opposed to the embargo, not only because of concrete economic interests, but also as a matter of principle. In the view of the Chamber of Commerce economic embargos are useless for the purposes of regime change.

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But because the initiative to reestablish diplomatic relations with Cuba comes from B. Obama, the Republican leadership in Congress has already expressed its reluctance to allow any legislation pretending to lift the embargo. And even though since the death of Jorge Mas Canosa in 1997, the Cuban Lobby lacks the muscle of the past, its congressional delegation remains impressive, even when we take into account the diminished role of Senator Menendez

3 senators/ 4 members of the House

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No doubt the issue of the embargo will take time, but there is a process in place, initiated by B. Obama, where first US/Cuban diplomatic relations will be reestablished at the level of full/fledge embassies, even if the US envoy has to remain as the Charge, but with the title of Ambassador thanks to a previous posting.

Meanwhile, the Executive enjoys great latitude to soften many of the economic restrictions imposed by the embargo regarding remittances, the issue of visas to travel to Cuba, the use of credit cards by Americans travelling to the island and trade deals that will not require payments in advance for the delivery of goods and services.

Concluding remarks

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The gradual approach to this new relationship between the US and Cuba works well for President Raul Castro. He may be reluctant to run the risk of rapid change in the economic sphere having a multiplier effect in the political sphere. Cuba had its own Perestroika between 1981 and 1985, achieving during those years their best rates of economic growth since 1959, even though the concessions to private initiative were of modest proportions.

Peasant market Self Employment Artisan activities Paladares

But Comandante Fidel Castro became fearful of his own economic reforms and decided in favor of what it was called La Campana de rectificacion de errores y tendencias negativas, reversing those small concessions and reestablishing the hegemony of the party apparatus over the management of the economy.

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President Raul Castro will continue to be charming to the Pope and to President Obama, but when his Foreign Minister meets with US Secretary of State Kerry, as it was case for three hours during the recent Summit in Panama, the main theme of conversation focused on the past, beginning with the Platt Amendment.

5 The fact that President Raul Castro favors gradualism, does not mean that he is not aware of the pressing need to make changes to the economic mode in Cuba. He knows that for one or two years, the Venezuelan government may not be able to deliver the 100.000 barrels of oil that Cuba requires on daily basis. In fact, since September of 2014, there are estimates that place the deliveries of Venezuelan oil to Cuba at 55.000 barrels per day.

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And even though Putin at the head of Russia gives hope to the autocrats of the world, President Raul Castro recognizes that the Russia of the XXI century does not aspire to be the Soviet Union of the XX century, when it became over committed to its client states. Instead, Putin aspires to be dominant in its near abroad and a major force in Euro Asia, with a policy of marginal/opportunistic gains in the Americas. In any event, Russia's GNP is smaller than that of Brazil, and 70% of its exports are commodities.

The US is key to the reinventing of the Cuban economy, but more than any one else, President Raul Castro is aware that in the short term he needs the Cubans of Florida, since they represent more remittances, more travel to Cuba, the spending in the Island of their social security checks, as well as providing working capital to their relatives in the Island for the opening of small enterprises.

At this point, after so much history, Cubans are willing to settle for small freedoms, for achieving rights as consumers, postponing for a much later date their rights as citizens. Let us not forget that the Island's population is getting old very fast, and older people are reluctant to take to the streets.

Finally, Raul Castro has set in motion his succession for 2018 and I believe he means business. It is at the point of departure of Raul Castro that things will moves faster in US Congress. Meanwhile, by showing willingness to engage the US, President Raul Castro has given hope for a better life to the Cuban people, and hope among the Cubans has become his new source of political legitimacy.

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