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COPYRIGHT and CITATION CONSIDERATIONS for THIS THESIS/ DISSERTATION O Attribution — You Must Give Appropriate Credit, Provide COPYRIGHT AND CITATION CONSIDERATIONS FOR THIS THESIS/ DISSERTATION o Attribution — You must give appropriate credit, provide a link to the license, and indicate if changes were made. You may do so in any reasonable manner, but not in any way that suggests the licensor endorses you or your use. o NonCommercial — You may not use the material for commercial purposes. o ShareAlike — If you remix, transform, or build upon the material, you must distribute your contributions under the same license as the original. How to cite this thesis Surname, Initial(s). (2012) Title of the thesis or dissertation. PhD. (Chemistry)/ M.Sc. (Physics)/ M.A. (Philosophy)/M.Com. (Finance) etc. [Unpublished]: University of Johannesburg. Retrieved from: https://ujdigispace.uj.ac.za (Accessed: Date). A SPATIAL PRIORITIZATION OF THREATS TO BIODIVERSITY AND CONSERVATION IN THE PROPOSED MAGALIESBERG BIOSPHERE by Belinda Anne Cooper A Minor Dissertation submitted to the Faculty of Science, in partial fulfilment of the academic requirements for the Degree of Magister Artium in Environmental Management Department of Geography, Environmental Management and Energy Studies, University of Johannesburg Supervisor: Dr. Clare Kelso Co-Supervisor: Prof. Fethi Ahmed May 2015 Affidavit: MASTER AND DOCTORAL STUDENTS TO WHOM IT MAY CONCERN This serves to confirm that I_ BELINDA ANNE COOPER Full Name(s) and Surname ID Number/ Passport___ Student number enrolled for the Qualification MASTER OF ARTS IN ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT in the Faculty of Science Herewith declare that my academic work is in line with the Plagiarism Policy of the University of Johannesburg with which I am familiar. I further declare that the work presented in the _MINOR DISSERTATION _(minor dissertation/dissertation/thesis) is authentic and original unless clearly indicated otherwise and in such instances full reference to the source is acknowledged and I do not pretend to receive any credit for such acknowledged quotations, and that there is no copyright infringement in my work. I declare that no unethical research practices were used or material gained through dishonesty. I understand that plagiarism is a serious offence and that should I contravene the Plagiarism Policy notwithstanding signing this affidavit, I may be found guilty of a serious criminal offence (perjury) that would amongst other consequences compel the University of Johannesburg to inform all other tertiary institutions of the offence and to issue a corresponding certificate of reprehensible academic conduct to whomever requests such a certificate from the institution. Signed at Johannesburg on this 31 of May 2015 Signature Print name _BA COOPER STAMP: COMMISSIONER OF OATHS Affidavit certified by a Commissioner of Oaths This affidavit conforms with the requirements of the JUSTICES OF THE PEACE AND COMMISSIONERS OF OATHS ACT 16 OF 1963 and the applicable Regulations published in the GG GNR 1258 of 21 July 1972; GN 903 of 10 July 1998; GN 109 of 2 February 2001 as amended. ii Abstract The research is conducted in the Magaliesberg region of South Africa, in the context of the area being promoted as a Biosphere Reserve in the UNESCO Man and Biosphere Programme. The programme recognises the need to reconcile the conservation of biodiversity with associated cultural value and sustainable socio-economic development, which is demonstrated in designated special areas that contain both unique biodiversity and a gradation of human interventions. Considering the proposed reserves proximity to the economic hub of South Africa - the Gauteng city region – it’s exceptional biodiversity is threatened by extreme modifications to the landscape, by increasing pressures of population, development and extraction which should be incorporated into conservation assessment at a regional scale. Combining the conservation value of an area with an assessment of the particular threats resulting in degradation and loss of habitat, can connect the vulnerability of priority conservation areas to particular threatening processes, and enable the identification of priority regions for targeted conservation action and social upliftment in the biosphere context. The research is situated as spatial decision support, and presents a systematic regional approach to quantifying and analysing threats and referencing them to the terrestrial biodiversity landscape. The work can be summarised as a conservation and threats assessment that quantifies the exposure (by geographic extent) and intensity (by AHP) of multiple threat criteria to determine priority threats in relation to conservation value. This is achieved using a Spatial Multi Criteria, Analytical Hierarchy Process, approach, whereby relative weights for multiple threat criteria are formalised by expert judgement into a quantitative record, and applied in a weighted linear overlay. First, the spatial variability of several individual threatening processes is assessed in relation to priorities for conservation, after which a composite of priority threats is integrated with priorities for conservation in a single map, and congruent graphic bi-plot. These products can be used to identify combinations of priorities for threat and conservation in priority quadrants that may inform regional spatial planning, and conservation responses. Each threatening process shows different results for exposure and intensity, with a general pattern for the region emerging, i.e. that threats are concentrated and severe (less exposure, more intensity) or widespread and less severe (more exposure, less intensity). Analysing threats with reference to priority conservation areas showed that factors of habitat decline pervade all priority conservation zones, including formally protected areas with proportionally more exposure in high value conservation areas, compared to habitat loss threats. The distribution of threats of habitat loss in relation to priority conservation areas, indicate a negative linear relationship – they decrease in extent as conservation value increases. Using the priority quadrant approach, results show that 17% of high value conservation land is severely threatened, while 48% is not currently threatened, whereas, 53% of less valuable conservation areas are pervaded by multiple high priority threats. Including criteria for habitat loss and habitat decline and quantifying both extent and intensity of threat, has improved estimations of the vulnerability of biodiversity from a regional perspective, and it is likely that threats to biodiversity in general would have been underestimated had only habitat loss threats been considered for analysis. iii Acknowledgements I acknowledge and thank the institutions and individuals who so willingly provided spatial data, and allowed me to use it for this research. My gratitude goes to the experts – the members of MBIG and others - who gave their time and participated in the AHP. The financial assistance of the National Research Foundation (NRF) is also hereby acknowledged. Many thanks go to my supervisors Dr Clare Kelso and Prof Fethi Ahmed for their valuable insights and helpful comments which have taught me a great deal about research and have improved this dissertation tremendously. Clare, your support and guidance through the process is appreciated. My love and thanks to my mother for her help and support, and to family and friends, for their encouragement. Special love and heartfelt gratitude go to Dave and Julia for their patience, and for so graciously allowing me the time and space to complete this work. iv Table of Contents Affidavit ........................................................................................................................................... ii Abstract .......................................................................................................................................... iii Acknowledgements ........................................................................................................................ iv Table of Contents ............................................................................................................................ v List of Figures .................................................................................................................................. x List of Tables ................................................................................................................................. xii List of abbreviations ....................................................................................................................... xiii Chapter 1 Introduction ................................................................................................................ 1 1.1 Introduction ....................................................................................................................... 1 1.2 Research Motivation ........................................................................................................ 2 1.3 Problem Statement and Hypothesis .................................................................................. 5 1.4 Research Aims and Objectives .......................................................................................... 5 1.5 Report Outline .................................................................................................................. 6 Chapter 2 The proposed Magaliesberg Biosphere Reserve in context......................................... 8 2.1 Biophysical background ...................................................................................................
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