CHAD Food Security Outlook June 2016 to January 2017

Early rains improve household food security in the Sudanian zone

KEY MESSAGES Current food security outcomes for June 2016  The 2016 rainy season in the Sudanian zone began the middle of April, a month earlier than usual, which improved food consumption and shortened the lean season for pastoral households. Cumulative rainfall totals as of the second dekad of June show a large to moderate excess in practically all parts of this zone, allowing for early crop planting and raising expectations for average to above-average crop yields. Minimal (IPC Phase 1) food insecurity in the Sudanian zone will continue through January 2017.  Reduced incomes from local livelihoods and cereal stock depletion in the region due to security issues widened the food consumption gaps as the peak of the lean season approaches. These security problems are restricting access to land for the current growing season. High cereal prices are restricting food access. The entire region is in Crisis (IPC Phase 3), where it will stay through the month of October, when expected humanitarian assistance will contain food insecurity at Stressed (IPC Phase 2!) Source: FEWS NET This map shows relevant current acute food insecurity levels. outcomes for emergency decision-making. It does not reflect  The scarcity of pasture lands is steadily eroding the physical chronic food insecurity. conditions of animals in the Hadjer Lamis, Barh El Gazel, , , and Wadi Fira regions. The situation is becoming critical, with reports of a number of animal deaths in areas with virtually no watering holes. Thus, the agropastoral zone will remain in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) through September, when conditions will improve with the growth of fresh pasture and the increased demand for livestock for the religious holidays. SEASONAL CALENDAR FOR A TYPICAL YEAR

Source: FEWS NET

FEWS NET FEWS NET is a USAID-funded activity. The content of this report does not necessarily reflect [email protected] the view of the United States Agency for International Development or the United States www.fews.net Government.

CHAD Food Security Outlook June 2016 to January 2017

NATIONAL OVERVIEW Most likely estimated food security outcomes for June through September 2016 Current situation

Farming conditions: The rains began a month earlier than usual in the Sudanian zone, with reports of useful rainfall activity towards the third dekad of April instead of in the middle of May, which helped jump-start crop planting and, which have since become increasingly widespread. Cumulative rainfall totals are above-average, with a good spatial-temporal distribution of rainfall (Figure 1). Thus far, the crops planted in April have not experienced any problems. An estimated 30 percent of cropping areas were planted in crops as of mid-June, compared to 15 percent in 2015. The types of crops planted include, without being limited to, border-irrigated sorghum and maize, groundnuts, short-cycle beans, etc. As usual, the growing season has not yet gotten underway in the Sahelian zone, except in Guéra and Salamat where there were early rains and above-average levels of cumulative rainfall as of the first dekad of June. The abundant rainfall, well-distributed in time if not in Source: FEWS NET space, triggered the planting of small lowland areas in sorghum in Guéra and departments in the Guéra region. Land Most likely estimated food security outcomes for preparation work continues in the rest of the Sahel, including October 2016 through January 2017 scattered mechanized dry plowing activities. Yields of hot off-season crops in polder areas of the Lake Chad region are mediocre due to the water shortage in 2015 and the ongoing security problems in that area. Maize crops were exposed to too much heat and did not get enough irrigation as the wells dried up before they had matured. The actual area planted in crops for the ongoing growing season for rainfed crops represents 85 percent of the total rainfed crop-growing area in the Lac region. The remaining 15 percent is lying idle due to the abandonment of fields in deserted villages as a result of the security problems in the area. The last remaining market garden crops are gradually giving way to rainfed crops in the Western Sahel. With the popularization of motor- driven pumps and larger numbers of growers motivated by attractive prices there were above-average market gardening activities in Ouaddai despite the rainfall deficit. These activities continue, with ongoing harvests of cash crops (onions and garlic) in Ouara producing Source: FEWS NET well above-average crops yields. Harvests of crops such as okra, cucumbers, sorrel, etc. are ongoing in the Moyen Chari and Mandoul regions. Pastoral conditions: There is currently an available supply of pasture in practically all parts of the Sudanian zone with the slightly earlier than usual start of this year’s rainy season, which has improved the physical condition of livestock. Better animal watering holes have been created with seasonal lakes and ponds already filling with water. Animal health conditions are stable, except for reports of a number of cases of seasonal distomatosis by the veterinary health service. Pastoral conditions in the central and southeastern reaches of the Sahelian zone are steadily improving with the rainfall activity in Guéra, Abtouyour, and Bahr Signaka Departments in the Guéra region and in the Salamat region, spurring new vegetative growth and replenishing seasonal lakes and ponds for the feeding and watering of livestock. Animals are beginning to recover and are traveling shorter distances in search of water and green pasture. Steady improvement in market supplies of milk began in June 2016. Pastoral conditions farther east, around Ouaddai and Wadi Fira, are steadily deteriorating due to the forage deficit or scarcity of pasture. The already generally mediocre physical conditions of livestock are becoming increasingly critical, with reports of

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CHAD Food Security Outlook June 2016 to January 2017 a number of animal deaths in the Gueri area (Ouara). Virtually no animal Figure 1: RFE anomaly/2006-2015 average watering holes exist in certain parts of northern Ouara, the East, and western Biltine, where pastoral conditions are much worse than usual. Practically no pasture is available in the Western Sahel in general and in Kanem and Barh el Gazal in particular, where the lean season for pastoral populations is at its peak and the physical conditions of livestock have deteriorated to such an extent that they are even worse than last year. Animals are still having trouble finding food and water, and pastoralists depleted their stocks of hay by March/April, just as the lean season in pastoral areas was getting underway. The delivery of animal feedcakes by the FAO in mid-June should help keep the extremely debilitated animal population alive. Pastures in Hadjer Lamis are starting to recover, with the first rains spurring the growth of new grass cover. Grazing animals in these areas (Hadjer Lamis and northern and central Chari-Baguirmi) are currently in fairly good physical condition compared to last year, when the rains got off to a late start. The epidemiological situation has been stable, with the usual handful of cases of contagious bovine pleuropneumonia, PPR (sheep and goat plague), and trypanosomiasis. Source: USGS/FEWS NET Transhumant herd movements: There is a rather earlier than usual large presence of pastoralists in Melfi in department (Guéra), at this time, which is not normally the case until July/August. This is probably due to the major expansion of crop-growing activities in the Sudanian zone resulting in a loss of rangelands, which has caused livestock herds to return north to prevent the constant disputes between farmers and pastoralists. Farm labor: There is still little demand for farm labor in the Sahelian zone with the limited farming activities in that area currently. Casual labor is continuing in the Ouaddaï region, which normally attracts both farm and nonfarm labor, though on a very limited scale due to the sporadic job opportunities in that area. Workers are reportedly working fewer days a week during the month of Ramadan (three to four days a week, compared to five to six work days at the same time last year). A larger than usual supply of farm labor in the Western Sahel is due to the influx of refugees and IDPs from Nigeria fleeing the conflict with Boko Haram. The daily wage for a farm worker in Bol is 1000 CFAF, 50 percent less than usual. A smaller supply of labor exists in the Sudanian zone, which is somewhat expensive compared to the same period in 2015. Fewer workers are looking for on-farm employment and are more attracted by activities such as fishing and the sale of firewood, which are more lucrative. The cost of labor for the clearing of land in Héli Bongo in Lac Iro department (Moyen Chari) is up by between six and 13 percent from 2015. Population movements: There are reports of atypical population movements to urban areas (Mongo, Abeché, N’Djamena, Bitkine) in search of food or work from many villages in West Batha (Koundjourou subprefecture), Fitri, Mangalmé, and the Mongo area. These population movements (atypical coping strategies) are a reflection of the poor crop production in 2015/2016. The reported population movements in the Western Sahel are for seasonal labor migration to large cities across the country and itinerant trade. There is a continuing flow of refugees and returnees, with regular population displacements by security problems linked to the conflict with Boko Haram. However, some of the IDPs are relatives rejoining their families back in the Lac region. There are currently no reports of any atypical population movements in the Sudanian zone. A flow of seasonal return migration (to plow their land) by youths continues as wellas for certain households heading off to the city in search of seasonal employment after the end of the last harvest. Cereal supplies/availability: In spite of the subsidized sales by ONASA (the National Food Security Agency) in practically all areas of the country with cereal deficits in 2015 such as Barh el Gazal, Kanem, Batha, Guera, and Ouadi Fira, cereal supplies

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CHAD Food Security Outlook June 2016 to January 2017 are still smaller than usual. Market supplies remain adequate, largely from wholesale traders, with better cereal supplies on markets in the Sudanian zone. Cereal trade and prices: There are currently regular Figure 2: June prices for millet compared to last year and the market supplies of cereals, oilseeds, and pulses and a five-year average (in CFAF/kg) normal flow of cereal trade, with regular shipments 300 of cereal crops into northern areas of the country. In 250 spite of the available market supplies of cereals, prices are rising due to the lean season and increased 200 demands for Ramadan. The highest June prices for 150 maize compared to the five-year average were on the Bol market in the Lac region (+23 percent) and the 100 Moussoro market (+20 percent) in the BEG region. 50 June prices for sorghum had risen by 19 percent in Bongor (East Mayo-Kebbi) and 12 percent in Kélo 0 (Tanjilé). Rice prices in N’Djamena were slightly Abeche Moundou Moussoro Mongo above-average (+9 percent), while millet prices were juin 15 juin 16 Moy. 5 ans still on par with the five-year average and were actually below-average in Moussoro in the month of Source: FEWS NET June (Figure 2). In general, the expansion of subsidized sales by ONASA in impoverished areas such as Kanem, BEG, and Hadjer Lamis has decreased prices, though certain prices are still above the five-year average. Supplies in Kanem and BEG, which are high consumption areas, are bolstered by food products and by-products from Libya. Driven by the demand for seeds and a growing consumer demand, sesame prices are up from the month of April by between 50 and 100 CFAF/kg, depending on the location, and many farmers and traders have been able to sell their remaining inventories. There are continuing small-scale sales at prices of between 300 and 375 CFAF/kg at the farm-gate level and between 350 and 500 CFAF/kg from the warehouse stocks of wholesalers and exporters in Eastern Logone, Mandoul, and West Mayo Kebbi. Livestock prices: The well above-average supply of livestock due to the low demand for exports with the official closure of the country’s border with Nigeria continues to drive down livestock prices, which are much lower than normal. In general, June prices for an average sheep were below-average by 33 percent on the N’Djamena market and 38 percent in Ouaddai. In the Western Sahel, livestock prices for June 2016 were under the five-year average by 40 percent on the Nokou market (in North Kanem), 47 percent in Ngouri (Lac), and 42 percent in Bol (Lac). There are larger supplies of large animals than small ruminants, for which there is some demand in border areas with Sudan. Humanitarian assistance: WFP is continuing to distribute food rations to refugees from the Central African Republic in Moyen Chari. Returnees have not been receiving any rations for the past two months and the size of the rations distributed to the refugees was cut back at the beginning of May due to lack of funding. The refugees and returnees in East and West Logone fleeing the violence in CAR are still receiving assistance from humanitarian organizations such as UNICEF, UNHCR, and WFP. With the assistance furnished by FAO, UNHCR, and IHLD, most of the refugees have a supply of seeds for planting rainfed crops for the 2016/2017 growing season. In general, humanitarian assistance for Sudanese refugees and IDPs in particular has been cut back in all eastern regions of the country. Monthly distributions of food assistance continue, with the size of these food rations varying according to the camp in question and the extent of the recipients’ vulnerability. ONASA has distributed cereal supplies to households in cantons in West Batha, Ouaddai, Wadi Fira, and Guera departments. This operation is a follow-up to the distributions of 200 metric tons of cereals between January and March 2016 in West Batha and Fitri departments and is scheduled to be extended through July and August in East Batha. Nutritional situation: The current nutritional situation is marked by a rise in admissions of children suffering from acute malnutrition to therapeutic feeding centers compared to the same time last year. Global acute malnutrition rates are normally quite high during the lean season in the Sahelian belt, with a median value (based on SMART surveys for 2010 through 2015) varying from 12.8 to 21 percent depending on the area. The epidemiological situation is relatively stable, but, as usual, the nutritional situation in different parts of the Sahelian belt is still serious to critical.

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CHAD Food Security Outlook June 2016 to January 2017

Food security situation: Food security conditions in the Sahelian departments of Mamdi and (in the Lac region), Mangalmé (in the Guera region), Megri and (in the Wadi Fira region), and the southern reaches of BEG, southern Kanem, and West Batha are still poor due to the premature depletion of food stocks, the decline in income, and the pressure from refugees and IDPs on host populations in the Lac region, which are also living under the threat of Boko Haram. To cope with this situation, poor households are selling more animals than usual to maintain their food access, though this strategy has failed to bridge their food consumption gaps. According to the Emergency Food Security Assessments (EFSA) conducted in March/April 2016, there are high rates of child acute malnutrition in most of these areas. The subsidized cereal sales by the ONASA in April 2015 has not succeeded in bridging household food consumption gaps. Thus, according to the results of the acute food insecurity analysis, all of the departments mentioned above are in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) food insecurity. Households in certain remote areas in the Sila, Wadi Fira, and Guera regions are currently in Stressed (IPC Phase 2) food insecurity due to the hardships created by the deterioration in pastoral conditions and the depletion of food stocks, which is limiting their ability to meet their basic food consumption needs. This year’s early rains have improved food consumption in southern areas of the country, where there is an earlier than usual availability of wild vegetables, fish, guinea hen eggs, shea nut oil, etc., which are also important sources of income effectively helping to strengthen the food security of poor households. There are also market garden crops available on certain markets and at the household level, which are helping to diversify household diets. The early rains also improved the condition of pastures, which are in average to good shape. Based on current conditions, the entire southern part of the country is experiencing Minimal (IPC Phase 1) food insecurity.

Assumptions The most likely food security scenario for June 2016 through January 2017 is based on the following assumptions with respect to nationwide conditions:

 Agro-climatic conditions: Based on the analysis of NOAA, ECMWS, Figure 3: NMME rainfall forecast for July IRI, and UK MET seasonal forecasting models, there should be through September 2016 normal to above-normal levels of rainfall (Figure 3). There will be sufficient cumulative rainfall for normal crop growth and development. The early rains compared to the last two years, namely 2014 and 2015, should help maintain adequate agro- climatic conditions.  Institutional procurements: The overall below-average volume of cereal production will create larger than usual annual stock-building needs for the replenishment of national security stocks this year given the unusually early drawdown of these stocks since the beginning of April 2016. Institutional procurements, to be made on credit, are projected at 25,000 metric tons before September. WFP plans to purchase cereal crops (berbéré) in Salamat, but the amount of these procurements is still unknown.  Household food stocks: Any residual household food stocks have already been depleted in certain areas and will be depleted during the lean season in others. Households should be able to replenish their food stocks from the harvests between October and January 2017, which are expected to be average. Source: NOAA/NMME  Cereal supply: Due to the reported cereal deficit in 201, there will be a smaller than usual supply of cereals during the lean season, when any remaining stocks will be depleted. Market supplies of all cereal crops, largely from wholesale traders, with the exception of maize will remain adequate.  Cereal demand: There will be a slight rise in demand, particularly during the lean season, the month of Ramadan (June/July), and the celebration of Tabaski (in August), driven by high levels of consumption and the depletion of household cereal stocks. The agropastoral livelihood zone in the Sahelian belt will experience an especially high demand due to the food security situation of poor households in Crisis (IPC Phase 3), which will make them market-dependent through the end of September. Demand will slow between October 2016 and January 2017 with the upcoming harvests.  Farm labor: Income from wage labor, though lower than usual with the increased supply of labor from refugees from

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CHAD Food Security Outlook June 2016 to January 2017

CAR and the Lac region scattered across the country, will enable households to pay for cereals to supplement supplies of rainy season fruits and vegetables. The current ban on gold panning activities in the Batha area, which is being strictly enforced by the military, will prevent a flight of labor to that area, as had been the case in previous months. The monies due to cotton farmers have still not been paid in full, which will penalize certain households looking to purchase farm inputs and equipment.  Pastoral conditions and water availability: The scarce supplies of pasture and watering holes in the Sahelian zone in May should improve in June with the early rains. Pastoral conditions will start to improve as of July with the growth of new plant cover. Seasonal lakes and ponds will gradually fill with water assuming rainfall conditions remain unchanged.  Income from animal products: The poor physical conditions of livestock with the shortage of pasture and water, which is driving down livestock prices and reducing the productivity of dairy herds, will result in an atypical decline in revenues from animal products between May and June 2016. Income from livestock and animal products could start to improve in agropastoral and transhumant pastoral areas in July with the growth of new plant cover and the rise in demand, driven by the observance of Ramadan and the celebration of Tabaski in August.  Food Sources: Household sources of food will not be affected, with households drawing on their remaining food stocks until the lean season (June through September), whereupon they will become market-dependent. Some poor households, particularly in areas in Crisis (IPC Phase 3), are already market-dependent and their dependence on local markets will increase during the lean season. Households will resort to wild plant foods such as shea nuts and various rainy season fruits and vegetables during the lean season.  Security situation and impact of the conflict with Boko Haram in the West: There could be growing security problems during the rainy season, with the rise in water levels in the Lac region making it easier for members of Boko Haram to travel by boat (pirogue).  Impact of the devaluation of the naira on trade with Nigeria: Nigeria devaluated its currency at the end of 2015 but, although Chad imports many food products and manufactured goods from Nigeria, the closure of its border with Nigeria will prevent the devaluation from having any short-term impact on markets in Chad. There are no plans to re-open the border any time in the near future.  Nutritional situation: As usual, the nutritional situation in areas across the Sahelian belt will remain serious to critical between June and September 2016, with GAM rates close to median values for the lean season ranging from 12.8 to 21 percent depending on the area in question (based on SMART surveys for 2010 through 2015). There should be a slight improvement in the nutritional situation between October 2016 and January 2017 with harvests of early crops for the current growing season (the availability of crops, vegetables, milk, etc.) Acute malnutrition rates will be below the critical threshold of 15 percent, in line with normal seasonal trends.  Level of humanitarian assistance: After the delay in humanitarian responses due to transfer problems with funding and funding gaps, humanitarian assistance programs will begin in areas of Crisis (IPC Phase 3) in June, but will be unable to meet 100 percent of the needs of households plagued by acute food insecurity. The NGO ACTED (Agency for Technical Cooperation and Development) has made plans with WFP for the delivery of significant amounts of food and nutritional assistance to displaced populations from the Lake Chad region in the Bagasola-Liwa-Daboua area over the period between June and December 2016. However, even with this operation, close to 30 percent of the poor population will face food gaps for lack of funds, particularly during the lean season (between June and September).

Trends in prices for staple food and cash crops:  There could be a moderate rise in sorghum prices between June and September with the reportedly low levels of berbéré production in the first quarter of 2016. Prices could peak in August before starting to decline in October, though still staying well above the five-year average.  Maize prices will be above the five-year average between June and September due to the expected poor hot off-season crop production in July in the Lake Chad area and the security problems in that area, limiting the flow of trade.  There could be an atypical rise in millet prices between June and August in eastern areas of the country affected by the below-average levels of rainfall and production for the 2015/2016 crop year.  There will be a sharp rise in sesame prices in the southern part of the country, fueled by the new wave of demand for exports since the end of April. With the growing demand for seeds during the month of June, the last remaining sesame inventories will more than likely be bought up quickly and prices will probably stay high or even increase slightly. The sesame market bulletin for May 2016 (#216) expects there to be very few carry-over sesame stocks for next season.

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CHAD Food Security Outlook June 2016 to January 2017

Most likely food security outcomes Between June and September, there will be no change in food insecurity levels in departments in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) since March/April with the persistent food consumption gaps created by the early start of the lean season in farming and pastoral areas, atypical rises in staple cereal prices, and lower incomes from farm labor. In addition, food security conditions in Wayi department (Lac) have deteriorated to Crisis (IPC Phase 3), driven by the food consumption gaps created by poor cereal access and steadily rising prices, poor milk availability, extremely weak purchasing power during the current month of Ramadan, and high rates of acute malnutrition. With the early start of the rains in the Sahel, there are already signs of scattered new pasture growth, an improvement in the physical conditions of livestock, rises in livestock prices, fueled by the ongoing month-long observance of Ramadan and subsequent feasts (marking the end of Ramadan and the celebration of Tabaski), and the availability of animal products (milk, etc.). Thus, food insecurity in the transhumant pastoral West Batha area will ease back down to Stressed (IPC Phase 2) levels as of June. Other pastoral areas (northern Kanem and the northern BEG area) will also see an improvement in conditions as of July, when there will be Minimal (IPC Phase 1) food insecurity. On the other hand, there was only a slight improvement in the food security situation in Djourf Al-Ahmar department (Sila) in June, which will remain in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) through September. Conditions in southern departments in the Stressed (IPC Phase 2) phase of food insecurity will improve as of June with the early rains putting an end to the lean season for pastoral populations and helping to strengthen household food consumption by providing access to wild vegetables, milk, and farming opportunities, at which point there will be Minimal (IPC Phase 1) food insecurity. The rest of the country will experience Minimal (IPC Phase 1) food insecurity (Map 2).

Between October 2016 and January 2017, the lean season in farming areas will give way to average harvests of rainfed crops. In general, there will be good food security conditions in all parts of the country with the upcoming harvests of rainfed food crops and the availability of milk, wild plant foods, etc. to improve the food access of poor households. On the whole, the expected average to slightly above-average levels of production will provide adequate access to these different sources of food. Thus, household consumption needs will be met and there will be a seasonal improvement in the nutritional situation of a large majority of households across country with the good food availability between October 2016 and January 2017. Households will rely on home-grown crops and will not resort to any coping strategies. There will be average pastoral conditions, with an abundance and variety of pasture. Thus, all parts of the country will continue to experience Minimal (IPC Phase 1) acute food insecurity through January 2017, with the exception of the Lake Chad area, which will be in the Stressed (IPC Phase 2!) phase of food insecurity with the scheduled humanitarian assistance for that area (a distribution of free food assistance combined with nutritional assistance for children).

AREA OF CONCERN Northern Guéra region (Mangalmé, Abtouyour, and Guera departments) in livelihood zone 5 (“Central Agropastoral”)

Current situation Cereal production: Cereal production for 2015-2016 in the Guéra region fell 26 percent short of the five-year average. This is the third consecutive year in which the region has had a production deficit. Cereal production, oilseed production, and market garden and cash crop production in northern Guéra were down by 17 percent, 10 percent, and four percent, respectively, from 2014-2015 according to the National Rural Development Agency (ONDR) office in Guéra. Household food stocks: Poor households in Guéra and Mangalmé departments depleted their food stocks by February instead of sometime in May, as is normally the case, due to the shortfall in crop production for 2015/2016. They are starting to buy supplies on local markets sooner than usual in spite of their weak purchasing power. According to household interviews, subsidized sales by the ONASA and miscellaneous assistance from NGOs and cereal banks are providing other households with access to cereal supplies. Off-season crop production (market garden and/or berbéré crops): The only usual crop-producing activities at this time are market gardening activities in high-potential areas (Idjélidjé in Mangalmé and outlying areas of Mongo), which are among the activities resulting in the four percent production shortfall referred to above due to the water shortage in 2015. According to the ONDR in Guéra, these market gardening operations are growing okra, corchorus (Jute mallow), sorrel, pepper,

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CHAD Food Security Outlook June 2016 to January 2017 cucumber, lettuce, and cowpea crops. Progress of the growing season: The main activities in progress at this time as the 2016/2017 growing season gets underway are land clearing activities for new fields and clean-up activities on existing fields. Normally, the growing season begins in June and ends in October. According to officers with the ONDR office in Guéra, the first rains, though not very useful, were reported as early as the third dekad of April and there were scattered crop planting activities in a number of villages in lowland areas (Baro, Bitkine) beginning in the middle of May. There have been widespread crop planting activities underway since the end of May or the beginning of June, which is slightly earlier than usual (mid-June to early July). There are below-average levels of income from wage labor due to the growing supply of labor (with the influx of households into Ati and northern Guéra with the discovery of new gold deposits), the current usual low demand for labor for farm work, and the weak household purchasing power. Cereal prices: Cereal prices (sorghum and millet prices) have been relatively stable since the beginning of 2016, with moderate rises in the price of rice in Bitkine and Guera departments. This price stability is being sustained by the large presence of manufactured food products (pasta, rice, and flour) from Libya and the Sudan and the subsidized sales by ONASA in April. Demand for farm labor: With the large shortfall in harvests and decline in livestock prices, the resulting weak household purchasing power is limiting demand for wage labor. Thus, for now, most labor is in the form of unpaid family labor. Even with the seemingly early start of this year’s rains, better-off farmers are skeptical about the growing season and, thus, reluctant to make any outlays for the time being. Pastoral conditions: There is beginning to be a better-than-average availability of pasture and water for livestock. Sedentary pastoralists and agropastoralists are traveling shorter distances in search of these commodities. In spite of these recent improvements, the physical condition of livestock and production systems (milk, births) are still not that good and there is still only limited access to dairy products. However, goats are starting to benefit from the new growth of thorn bushes and other types of woody vegetation, more so than sheep and cattle. According to pastoralists and veterinary services, epizootic conditions are normal. Livestock prices: Livestock prices are falling with the closure of the country’s border with Nigeria and the poor physical condition of the animal population, which is hurting terms of trade for pastoralists. Population movements: There is a larger and earlier than usual flow of seasonal migration after the poor 2015 growing season. This seasonal migration, which normally involves mostly youths (from one out of four households), has been scaled up and has become a source of income for more than half of all households this year. There are continuing reports of population movements from Mangalmé to Mongo, Abéché, and N’Djamena in search of jobs in construction and water transportation services or domestic work. According to the Baro canton chief, the growing season for these populations slowly returning to the land is getting off to somewhat of a late start after the unusually early first rains. Current changes in livelihoods: There are larger than usual sales of small ruminants with the ongoing observance of Ramadan and the approaching crop planting period. According to household interviews, households are also taking out loans and incurring in-kind debts with cereal banks. Children in community schools have dropped out school because their parents do not have the money with which to pay their teachers and, thus, are being sent off to look for work. Public schools in which the teachers are paid by parents associations are still functioning normally. Current food consumption and nutritional situation: Household food consumption has stabilized since the beginning of the second quarter of the year with the subsidized sales by the ONASA and the supplies of market garden crops, which have helped facilitate food access in the Mangalmé area and outlying areas of Mongo. However, households are still currently facing food consumption gaps. Surveys of households and of government officials and traditional authorities show that the cereal sales by the ONASA did not suffice to bridge the large food gaps created by three consecutive years of poor harvests. According to the UNICEF office in Guéra, the child nutritional situation is marked by a rise in admissions to therapeutic feeding centers in April 2016 compared to the same month of 2015, or from 3268 children in 2015 to 4226 in 2016. In addition, the UNICEF office in Guéra is reporting concerns over the availability of food stocks from humanitarian organizations (WFP IRC, and UNICEF) for upcoming operations. Food security situation: The premature depletion of their food stocks, the falling prices of livestock, and the decline in wage income are weakening the purchasing power of poor households. Thus, these households are facing food consumption gaps and are currently in the Crisis (IPC Phase 3) stage of acute food insecurity.

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CHAD Food Security Outlook June 2016 to January 2017

Assumptions

The most likely food security scenario for June 2016 through January 2017 in northern Guéra is based on the following assumptions in addition to the assumptions on nationwide conditions:

 Lean season: There will be a harsh lean season, with the reported cereal deficits for the third consecutive year depleting household cereal stocks earlier than usual, or by February/March.  2016-2017 growing season: In spite of the early start-of-season and favorable seasonal forecasts, the size of cropped areas will be average to slightly below-average due to the lag in the return of workers off hunting for jobs in large urban areas with which to support their families during the lean season. According to the ONDR (the National Rural Development Agency) and OXFAM, there will be average harvests of rainfed crops but large shortfalls in oilseed production in September (as was the case in 2015, with production down by 9.31 percent from 2014) due to the smaller numbers of buyers in the region for the last two years.  Farm labor: In spite of the current low demand for farm labor, conditions will stabilize with the heavy rainfall activity beginning in the middle of June. There will be a normal demand for farm labor between June and September 2016 for rainfed farming activities and between October 2016 and January 2017 for berbéré crops. The cost of labor is expected to drop slightly with the growing labor pool between June and November, swollen by the large presence of refugees from the Central African Republic and the Lake Chad area, who had initially arrived to pan for gold, which is presently banned.  Pastoral conditions: Pasture levels will gradually normalize with the early rains beginning in the first dekad of June, but there will be a lag in new animal births and a decline in birth rates (due to previous shortages of pasture and water). Sales of livestock during Ramadan could generate more household income, but income levels will remain below-average with the decline in birth rates.  Migration: There has been a below- normal volume of cash remittances Figure 4: Projected trends in pearl millet prices on the Mongo market, in since May and this will continue to be CFAF/kg the case through September due to the sluggish national economy and 350 rise in unemployment to levels which 300 the country has not seen for the last 250 decade. The harvest season will end as of November and workers will 200 head off to Salamat for the 150 transplanting of berbéré crops 100 (seasonal migration). 50  Millet prices: Pearl millet prices will rise during the month of June, driven 0 by high demand for the month-long observance of Ramadan (Figure 4). This atypical rise in prices will continue through the month of Moy. 5 ans 2016-Prix observés 2016 - Prix projetés Ramadan, which concludes with the celebration of a feast (in July). The Source: FEWS NET price of a kilogram of millet will peak in August at above-average levels due to its limited market availability. Millet prices will come down in September 2016 with the harvests of rainfed millet crops and small remaining supplies of wild vegetables and market garden crops, but will stay above the five-year average. Prices will drop between October and December 2016 with the new round of millet harvests. By January 2017, households will have replenished their food stocks and prices will soften.  Sources of income for very poor and poor households: Based on the assumptions outlined above, in general, there will be limited sources of income and poor households will resort to more buying on credit throughout the lean season. In addition, with the early rains, income from the sale of charcoal and firewood is expected to decline as a result of the limited access to these products during the rainy season. The same holds true for income from the sale of natural bricks, which are easily destroyed during the rainy season.  Nutritional situation: Most households will have large food gaps and will be unable to meet their basic food needs during

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CHAD Food Security Outlook June 2016 to January 2017

the lean season as a result of the premature depletion and current extremely low levels of their food stocks, their earlier than usual market-dependence with cereals selling at above-average prices, the inadequate amount of cereals sold on the market by the ONASA, and their below-average levels of aggregate income,. The nutritional situation could deteriorate during this period with the inopportune shortage of nutritional inputs (PPN – Plumpy’nut). This factor, together with an outbreak of seasonal illnesses (malaria), will move GAM rates closer to the usual critical thresholds. There could be an improvement in the nutritional situation between October and January with the first crops from the growing season (the availability of crops, vegetables, and milk), which is right in line with normal seasonal trends.

Most likely food security outcome

Between June and September, with the lean season at its height, the earlier than usual depletion of cereal stocks, and the high levels of cereal prices, combined with the decline in income from wage labor and the falling prices of livestock, poor households in this livelihood zone will continue to face large food consumption gaps throughout this period. There will be scaled-up sales of livestock, particularly small ruminants, and dairy products, which could deplete their livelihood assets but will still fail to bridge the food gaps of poor households. Accordingly, this group of households will remain in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) through September. Between October 2016 and January 2017, the expected average harvests of rainfed cereal crops will help replenish household food stocks. As usual, as of October, households will be consuming home-grown crops, which will limit their market-dependence. At the same time, there will be large market supplies from recent harvests and food prices will come down in line with normal seasonal trends. There could be an improvement in terms of trade and household incomes. Thus, there will be an improvement in cereal consumption as of October 2016, bridging the reported gaps during the lean season. Households will be able to meet their food needs and pay off loans incurred during the lean season. Accordingly, the situation of poor households in northern Guera could gradually improve beginning in October, to where they will be experiencing Minimal (IPC Phase 1) food insecurity.

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CHAD Food Security Outlook June 2016 to January 2017

EVENTS THAT COULD CHANGE THE OUTLOOK

Table 1. Possible events over the next eight months that could change the outlook

Area Event Impact on food security conditions Late start of the rains in the  Replanting risk, smaller arable areas, and less crop production Sahelian zone Flooding  Loss and destruction of crops  Limited income-earning opportunities from farming activities  Good berbéré production Poor spatial and/or temporal  Smaller areas with harvestable crops distribution of rainfall; sudden  Limited employment opportunities for farm labor end of the rains  Delay in harvests of early crops  Poor crop production Unusual infestations of crop  Lower yields and smaller harvests pests (desert locusts, National  Limited supply of on-farm employment grasshoppers, grain-eating birds,  Destruction of aerial pasture caterpillars, etc.) Cereal sales at subsidized prices  Stabilization of cereal prices in localized areas by the National Food Security  Improvement in cereal access for poor households Agency (ONASA)  Larger exports of food products and spare parts for rolling stock by Nigeria due to the competitiveness of Nigerian goods Re-opening of the border with  Resumption of livestock exports to Nigeria and normalization of Nigeria livestock prices  Improvement in terms of trade for livestock-cereals in favor of pastoralists Northern Guera Crop pests  Abandonment of farms and smaller areas with harvestable crops Drought  Smaller harvests of off-season and rainfed crops for 2016  Reduced food consumption

ABOUT SCENARIO DEVELOPMENT To project food security outcomes over a six-month period, FEWS NET develops a set of basic assumptions about likely events, their effects, and the probable responses of various actors. FEWS NET analyzes these assumptions in the context of current conditions and local livelihoods to develop scenarios predicting food security outcomes. Typically, FEWS NET bases its projections on the most likely scenario. Learn more here.

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