CHAD Food Security Outlook June 2016 to January 2017 Early rains improve household food security in the Sudanian zone KEY MESSAGES Current food security outcomes for June 2016 The 2016 rainy season in the Sudanian zone began the middle of April, a month earlier than usual, which improved food consumption and shortened the lean season for pastoral households. Cumulative rainfall totals as of the second dekad of June show a large to moderate excess in practically all parts of this zone, allowing for early crop planting and raising expectations for average to above-average crop yields. Minimal (IPC Phase 1) food insecurity in the Sudanian zone will continue through January 2017. Reduced incomes from local livelihoods and cereal stock depletion in the Lac region due to security issues widened the food consumption gaps as the peak of the lean season approaches. These security problems are restricting access to land for the current growing season. High cereal prices are restricting food access. The entire region is in Crisis (IPC Phase 3), where it will stay through the month of October, when expected humanitarian assistance will contain food insecurity at Stressed (IPC Phase 2!) Source: FEWS NET This map shows relevant current acute food insecurity levels. outcomes for emergency decision-making. It does not reflect The scarcity of pasture lands is steadily eroding the physical chronic food insecurity. conditions of animals in the Hadjer Lamis, Barh El Gazel, Kanem, Batha, and Wadi Fira regions. The situation is becoming critical, with reports of a number of animal deaths in areas with virtually no watering holes. Thus, the agropastoral zone will remain in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) through September, when conditions will improve with the growth of fresh pasture and the increased demand for livestock for the religious holidays. SEASONAL CALENDAR FOR A TYPICAL YEAR Source: FEWS NET FEWS NET CHAD FEWS NET is a USAID-funded activity. The content of this report does not necessarily reflect [email protected] the view of the United States Agency for International Development or the United States www.fews.net Government. CHAD Food Security Outlook June 2016 to January 2017 NATIONAL OVERVIEW Most likely estimated food security outcomes for June through September 2016 Current situation Farming conditions: The rains began a month earlier than usual in the Sudanian zone, with reports of useful rainfall activity towards the third dekad of April instead of in the middle of May, which helped jump-start crop planting and, which have since become increasingly widespread. Cumulative rainfall totals are above-average, with a good spatial-temporal distribution of rainfall (Figure 1). Thus far, the crops planted in April have not experienced any problems. An estimated 30 percent of cropping areas were planted in crops as of mid-June, compared to 15 percent in 2015. The types of crops planted include, without being limited to, border-irrigated sorghum and maize, groundnuts, short-cycle beans, etc. As usual, the growing season has not yet gotten underway in the Sahelian zone, except in Guéra and Salamat where there were early rains and above-average levels of cumulative rainfall as of the first dekad of June. The abundant rainfall, well-distributed in time if not in Source: FEWS NET space, triggered the planting of small lowland areas in sorghum in Guéra and Abtouyour departments in the Guéra region. Land Most likely estimated food security outcomes for preparation work continues in the rest of the Sahel, including October 2016 through January 2017 scattered mechanized dry plowing activities. Yields of hot off-season crops in polder areas of the Lake Chad region are mediocre due to the water shortage in 2015 and the ongoing security problems in that area. Maize crops were exposed to too much heat and did not get enough irrigation as the wells dried up before they had matured. The actual area planted in crops for the ongoing growing season for rainfed crops represents 85 percent of the total rainfed crop-growing area in the Lac region. The remaining 15 percent is lying idle due to the abandonment of fields in deserted villages as a result of the security problems in the area. The last remaining market garden crops are gradually giving way to rainfed crops in the Western Sahel. With the popularization of motor- driven pumps and larger numbers of growers motivated by attractive prices there were above-average market gardening activities in Ouaddai despite the rainfall deficit. These activities continue, with ongoing harvests of cash crops (onions and garlic) in Ouara producing Source: FEWS NET well above-average crops yields. Harvests of crops such as okra, cucumbers, sorrel, etc. are ongoing in the Moyen Chari and Mandoul regions. Pastoral conditions: There is currently an available supply of pasture in practically all parts of the Sudanian zone with the slightly earlier than usual start of this year’s rainy season, which has improved the physical condition of livestock. Better animal watering holes have been created with seasonal lakes and ponds already filling with water. Animal health conditions are stable, except for reports of a number of cases of seasonal distomatosis by the veterinary health service. Pastoral conditions in the central and southeastern reaches of the Sahelian zone are steadily improving with the rainfall activity in Guéra, Abtouyour, and Bahr Signaka Departments in the Guéra region and in the Salamat region, spurring new vegetative growth and replenishing seasonal lakes and ponds for the feeding and watering of livestock. Animals are beginning to recover and are traveling shorter distances in search of water and green pasture. Steady improvement in market supplies of milk began in June 2016. Pastoral conditions farther east, around Ouaddai and Wadi Fira, are steadily deteriorating due to the forage deficit or scarcity of pasture. The already generally mediocre physical conditions of livestock are becoming increasingly critical, with reports of Famine Early Warning Systems Network 2 CHAD Food Security Outlook June 2016 to January 2017 a number of animal deaths in the Gueri area (Ouara). Virtually no animal Figure 1: RFE anomaly/2006-2015 average watering holes exist in certain parts of northern Ouara, the East, and western Biltine, where pastoral conditions are much worse than usual. Practically no pasture is available in the Western Sahel in general and in Kanem and Barh el Gazal in particular, where the lean season for pastoral populations is at its peak and the physical conditions of livestock have deteriorated to such an extent that they are even worse than last year. Animals are still having trouble finding food and water, and pastoralists depleted their stocks of hay by March/April, just as the lean season in pastoral areas was getting underway. The delivery of animal feedcakes by the FAO in mid-June should help keep the extremely debilitated animal population alive. Pastures in Hadjer Lamis are starting to recover, with the first rains spurring the growth of new grass cover. Grazing animals in these areas (Hadjer Lamis and northern and central Chari-Baguirmi) are currently in fairly good physical condition compared to last year, when the rains got off to a late start. The epidemiological situation has been stable, with the usual handful of cases of contagious bovine pleuropneumonia, PPR (sheep and goat plague), and trypanosomiasis. Source: USGS/FEWS NET Transhumant herd movements: There is a rather earlier than usual large presence of pastoralists in Melfi in Barh Signaka department (Guéra), at this time, which is not normally the case until July/August. This is probably due to the major expansion of crop-growing activities in the Sudanian zone resulting in a loss of rangelands, which has caused livestock herds to return north to prevent the constant disputes between farmers and pastoralists. Farm labor: There is still little demand for farm labor in the Sahelian zone with the limited farming activities in that area currently. Casual labor is continuing in the Ouaddaï region, which normally attracts both farm and nonfarm labor, though on a very limited scale due to the sporadic job opportunities in that area. Workers are reportedly working fewer days a week during the month of Ramadan (three to four days a week, compared to five to six work days at the same time last year). A larger than usual supply of farm labor in the Western Sahel is due to the influx of refugees and IDPs from Nigeria fleeing the conflict with Boko Haram. The daily wage for a farm worker in Bol is 1000 CFAF, 50 percent less than usual. A smaller supply of labor exists in the Sudanian zone, which is somewhat expensive compared to the same period in 2015. Fewer workers are looking for on-farm employment and are more attracted by activities such as fishing and the sale of firewood, which are more lucrative. The cost of labor for the clearing of land in Héli Bongo in Lac Iro department (Moyen Chari) is up by between six and 13 percent from 2015. Population movements: There are reports of atypical population movements to urban areas (Mongo, Abeché, N’Djamena, Bitkine) in search of food or work from many villages in West Batha (Koundjourou subprefecture), Fitri, Mangalmé, and the Mongo area. These population movements (atypical coping strategies) are a reflection of the poor crop production in 2015/2016. The reported population movements in the Western Sahel are for seasonal labor migration to large cities across the country and itinerant trade. There is a continuing flow of refugees and returnees, with regular population displacements by security problems linked to the conflict with Boko Haram. However, some of the IDPs are relatives rejoining their families back in the Lac region. There are currently no reports of any atypical population movements in the Sudanian zone.