No. 6/2014

Small States and Worthless Allies

Bruce Pitcairn Jackson

Earlier this summer in an unguarded emphasizes the importance of close moment, Polish Foreign Minister military and economic ties with Radosław Sikorski characterized his the United States. In the next few Bruce P. Jackson country’s with the United pages, I would like to address several States as “worthless” and parts of this question: (PRESIDENT, PTD) the relationship between . What is the basis for the belief that Bruce P. Jackson is the founding and the United States as “bullshit.” a natural alliance does and should director of the Project on There was the expected handwring- exist between the Transitional Democracies (PTD), ing about the tenor of the minister’s and the United States? which promotes democratic reforms remarks and his graphic Elizabethan in former Soviet states. Mr. Jackson vocabulary, but no one quarreled . Is the Czech strategy of enhancing also served as a U.S. army with the truth of what he said. As is its military and trade relations with intelligence officer (1979–1990), frequently the case with the brilliant the United States likely to be Pentagon arms control adviser Sikorski, he was completely right successful? (1986–1990) and adviser to about the value of the American . If not the United States, what the presidential campaigns of alliance to Poland. Senators Bob Dole and John McCain. alternatives exist for the Czech Mr. Jackson´s career includes From the perspective of Poland, Republic to achieve the same founding the U.S. Committee on the United States defaulted on its objectives that are currently being NATO; advising to the American obligation to help develop pursued by Czech foreign policy Enterprise Institute and Frank the militaries of new NATO members in Washington? and contingency plans for their Gaffney's Center for Security Policy; But before turning to the issues defense, reneged on its commitment helping to direct the Project for specific to the Czech Republic, to deploy strategic defenses, paid the New American Century; and I would like to make some general scant attention to any country in being a member of a now-defunct comments about the problem Central Europe and diddled and Freedom House program called of small states seeking . the American Committee for Peace dithered for years with . in Chechnya. Judging from the current situation in The Small-State Problem: Russia, and Belarus As a general rule, smaller states A longtime Republican Party and America’s drift toward the Pacific prefer a security relationship with operative, Jackson was a delegate Ocean, independent Poland’s securi- a distant power over the much more committed to then-Governor George ty situation has not been this bad problematic relations that come with W. Bush and chaired the Foreign since the late 1930s. And, as if to rub larger neighbors. As ’s geo- Policy Subcommittee of salt into Warsaw’s wounds, the U.S. graphical problem is often described, the Republican Platform Committee. State Department has made no “So far from God, so close secret of its opposition to to the United States.” Something the candidacy of senior Polish along the same lines could be said officials for leadership positions in about the Czech Republic (perhaps, NATO and the European Union. “So close to Russia, so far Given the facts, Minister Sikorski’s from Western Europe”). comments are remarkably Small states tend to seek restrained. the affection of distant powers Setting the Polish compliant aside, to balance or offset the unwanted whether the United States is indeed affections of their immediate a worthless ally and the implications neighbors, but this balancing game of this state of affairs are important works best in an international system questions for countries like the Czech of many roughly equal powers. In the Republic whose foreign policy early 20th century, the great powers

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No. 6/2014

followed events in Agadir and China to an alliance with a friend. arbitrary periods in order to illustrate closely for fear that their peers might Secondly, it is highly improbable that the salient characteristics of each. gain advantage. For the same two states in different hemispheres 1. The Camelot of Václav Havel: reason, during the Cold War, will find identical geopolitical At the end of the Cold War, both the post-colonial wars of Southeast interests. The illegal immigration parties embraced a shared set Asia mattered greatly to the United of Roma might be an existential of values, but these were States, the Soviet Union and People’s threat in Paris and a National Geo- predominantly cultural values, which Republic of China. Today, with graphic cover story in Washington. could be summarized as beer, blue a single dominant power, the Great The only possible exception to jeans and rock ’n’ roll and in Game is harder to play for smaller the Iron Law of geography could be the person of Václav Havel. states, as Georgia, Macedonia, terrorism, which countries perceive Americans and Czechs could agree , , the Baltic in the same way across great that 1968 was a big year for both the States and most of Central Europe distances, but even here capitals will United States and the Czech have discovered. There is no great differ on whether and when to fight Republic. That the Americans risk for the United States in ignoring in Syria, Somalia or Mali. Suffice thought of 1968 as Woodstock distant problems because there is to say, there are good reasons why and the summer of love no obvious rival that could exploit the Czech Republic and Central Eu- and the Czechs thought of Soviet our inattention (at least up to rope never found a permanent ally in tanks troubled no one. Somehow, the moment). their history and why most of Central belonging to the same generation Europe found an uneasy refuge in In addition to the inequality of power made these two disparate the Austro-Hungarian Empire as between the small state and experiences analogous or even an alternative. the distant power, there are also equivalent. The reasoning behind this asymmetries of interests, which are A Short History of Czech Relations cultural connection remains obscure. magnified by different geographical with America: Proponents of closer In any event, Americans embraced realities. The Czech Republic might ties between the Czech Republic and Havel as a secular saint, and see a powerful ally as useful in the United States cite what could be the Czechs embraced America controlling passions within Central thought of as the Natural Law as a symbol of all the culture Europe and in restraining the power of alliances between like-minded and consumerism that had been of Russia, and conceivably democracies. This axiom holds that denied to them by communism . By contrast, the United adherence to a common set of broad and misrule. It would be hard to States might see all of Mitteleuropa political values will engender in both argue that this cultural comity was as either a bridge to or a barrier democracies a shared responsibility the product of closely reasoned against Russia depending for the defense of these values from political thought. The questions on the policy du jour. Many Czechs which will naturally spring increased posed to this romantic alliance were might think that this is a distinction trade and various cultural affinities. surprisingly easy, and the answers without a difference. But in the case In keeping with vintage were painless: Russia bad; Aung San where the United States loses all Enlightenment thinking, Natural Law Suu Kyi good; Europe Whole interest in what happens to Russia, dictates this original state of and Free; and Cuba Libre. In truth, then the United States has no intimacy, alliance and equality these slogans can barely be strategic interest in Central Europe between democracies. But is this considered as political values. whatsoever without a Russian true and does it apply to the Czech- Certainly, the presidency of Václav or Eastern rationale. American relationship since the end Havel accomplished a great deal in of the Cold War? the development of a human rights In short, small states are often agenda and NATO expansion, frustrated in their search for a distant Empirically, it should be quite easy but there remains the question but reliable ally, beyond the obvious to assess the foundation for and of whether shared values alone problem that “distant” and extent of the relationship over constitute a political alliance “effective” don’t normally come the past 25 years. For the purposes in foreign policy. Anne Applebaum in the same package. First, Great of simplicity and concision, I have has written critically on what she Powers are far more likely to respond divided the modern history calls the “McDonald’s Theory of to the threat of a rival than of the Czech Republic into four

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No. 6/2014

International Relations,” which holds political values have if they do about America’s interests. In many that the feeling of interconnected- not lead to political outcomes, as ways, the absence of interlocking ness will bring peace to the world. the shared values between interests is a relief. In some ways, the It is a longer subject than this paper the United States and Czech Republic current period is the happiest since allows, but it is worth asking if did not in this period. the days of Camelot and Havel. a shared opposition to anti-Semitism At least neither side is forced to fake 3. The Arguments of Václav Klaus: and recognition of the rights something that may no longer exist In the third period, frustration of the LGBT community and other and may never have existed. deteriorated into argument. minorities are the hidden structure President Václav Klaus believed that The foregoing argument does not of international politics or the export he understood the political values prove that an alliance or closer version of societal preferences. of the United States better than relations between the United States In any case, one could be forgiven the United States did, and he had and the Czech Republic cannot exist. for thinking that the romance a different interpretation of what It only proves that the case made for of the Czech-American honeymoon these values called for. We thought such an alliance— on the basis could not possibly last. that the values invested in a Europe of a post-Cold War Enlightenment— 2. The Frustrations of Alexandr Whole and Free meant more Europe, that alliance is the natural state Vondra: And, indeed, the which was what we thought was of democracies and has always relationship did not fare well in its the whole point. By contrast, Klaus existed in some form or another first contact with reality. Nothing thought a Free Europe could best be between the United States illustrates better how reality painfully realized by less Brussels. And on and and the Czech Republic is false. intruded than the trials and on. For the most part, Americans and To the contrary, political cooperation tribulations of Alexandr Vondra Czechs never discussed between these countries has been in his repeated attempts to translate the underlying political values in this iffy and problematic for the past wonderful sentiments into concrete period because it had been agreed 20 years and has tended to see the achievements. There was never previously that we shared these Czech Government move from an any suggestion that Ambassa- values, whatever the hell they were. adoration of U.S. President Ronald dor/Minister Vondra and his coun- Prague and Washington just came Reagan to the grudging acceptance terparts in Washington did not share to diametrically opposed conclusions of President Zeman. As predicted and profess the same political values. about what those values demanded. at the time, 20 years after entering But whether we are speaking of NATO even the most enthusiastically 4. The Return of Old School Social strategic defense, the visa waiver pro-American country in Central Democracy and Ordinary Populism: program or joint educational centers, Europe will be indistinguishable Finally, in the present day, neither things did not get done. politically speaking from “normal,” Washington nor Prague makes any The frustration of this period inward-looking EU member states. effort to pay lip service to putatively probably proves that political values Expressed as U.S. Secretary Donald common values and our cannot exist in the abstract; politics Rumsfeld might have, from the ever-strengthening alliance. Presi- must be rendered in practice and in perspective of U.S. interests, New dent Miroslav Zeman may not be institutions to have a reality. Merely Europe will be undetectable in one aware of these historical artifacts at liking the Rolling Stones or admiring generation. Of course, the eastern all. Without favoring either foreign the dazzling president of the Czech states of Europe will retain their policy, if one placed Czech and Republic in themselves do not historical views of Russia for American statements on Ukraine provide a reliable foundation for a far centuries, but the claim that New over the past year side by side, more demanding bilateral alliance. Europe will have an enduring one would be hard pressed I suspect that this second period relationship with the United States to recognize a common thread let proves that Americans and Czechs and a distinct voting pattern within alone a common alliance. It is share many cultural values but these the European Union (derived from its certainly not the case that President values are not so detailed or positive experience of NATO expan- Barack Obama considers the views developed as to provide a guide sion) will have to be abandoned. of the Czech Republic before making to the conduct of statecraft. The case of Robert Fico’s Slovakia a decision, and I doubt President This causes one to wonder what use should cause us to be skeptical about Zeman loses any sleep worrying

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No. 6/2014

the claim that the United States and Crimea’s annexation that the United Nevertheless, there are a wide range Central and Eastern Europe are States had no plans or intention of lower-profile relationships that are destined to be allies. Just as Viktor to fight for Ukraine or the return not affected by the negative Orbán’s Hungary has laid waste of Crimea. It is quite likely that economic and security outlook, such to the idea that 1989 ushered the White House will conclude from as cultural, educational, NGO joint in a New Europe in sync with the Ukrainian crisis and Russian ventures and exchanges, cooperative American liberal democracy. aggression that sanctions and “soft humanitarian projects, etc. power” are more than enough Admittedly the avenues between The Limits of the Possible: Not to deter aggression by Russia. democracies that are relatively open everything in the affairs of states can tend to be people-to-people be inferred from past performances. In these circumstances, proposals relationships, which are rewarding With mostly unpleasant changes that require a foreign policy activism but which don’t have the same kind sweeping the international system, by the United States or military of payoffs for political leaders that states will adapt to their spending and security commitments state-to-state initiatives sometimes circumstances in unique ways that are unlikely to be taken seriously have. will affect their disposition toward or even read until there is a new future actions and relations. administration in Washington in The point remains that there is For instance, the foreign policies mid-summer 2017. Improved trade a wide range of potential projects of the United States have been relations are governed by slightly that could strengthen relations profoundly altered during the Obama different factors, but here too between the United States and the presidency. The pressures of an improvements in bilateral trade are Czech Republic and that vary extended recession and jobless held hostage to the successful in probability of success and difficulty recovery have turned a domestically conclusion of the Transatlantic Trade of execution. If the past is any guide, focused president into a functional and Investment Partnership the Czech Republic like most other isolationist insofar as Europe is negotiations, which does not look small states most often aims for concerned. As the Czechs know far possible until the first years the project least likely to succeed better than most Europeans do, of the next administration or around and of the least long-term value. President Obama is not likely to 2018. Foreign direct investment, The time and political effort that support an expanded engagement on the other hand, is not limited by the Czech Republic invested in the with Central and Eastern Europe. the political calendar, but neither can doomed strategic defense project is His reluctance will only grow more it be directed politically. American an excellent example of being pronounced if the Democrats lose investors are wary of investing in punished by what one wished for. the Senate in the November Europe for three reasons: (1) the U.S. This outcome should not be mid-term . economy is recovering faster than a problem at the moment. While the Europe’s and the dollar is strengthen- United States has been maddeningly In terms of force structure and ing, (2) political leadership across vague about what it will do in foreign military aid, President Obama is most Europe, including in Brussels, is affairs, it has been depressingly clear unlikely to stop the decline of viewed as weak and indecisive and on the many things it will refuse military spending or take any action ready to pander to populists to do, some of which have been to offset the expected declines on higher taxes and penalties discussed above. in European defense budgets. to business and (3) growing Even the deteriorating situation What the Czech Republic Should Do instability in Russia and the Middle in Russia and the potential for a real First: As the previous discussion East are seen as a negative for Euro- war in Ukraine will not reverse suggests, the Czech Republic has pean economies over the long-term. the decline in U.S. defense spending often found itself the supplicant and America’s strategic shift to Asia. Thus, the three high-profile areas in an unequal relationship with It is worth remembering that wherein liberal democracies Washington, and like all unrequited the United States has gone through collaborate (military cooperation, lovers suffers the pangs of regret the last year of Ukrainian crises liberalized trade and cross-border and anger. The search of smaller without recourse to military investment) would seem to be European states for great-power measures. Indeed, President Obama difficult-to-impossible to improve in protectors has a long and announced on the first day of the current geopolitical context. undistinguished history in the 20th

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No. 6/2014

century. German Chancellor As Warsaw has done successfully, particularly hard to get its rising stars Theobald von Bethmann-Hollweg Prague should have directed its into key EU, NATO and IMF positions. phrased it bluntly during World War I attention toward building Despite the excellent work of Štefan when he observed, “The times are no the influence it wished to have in Füle at the European Commission, longer for annexation, but rather the future along the following lines: there is not the sense that the Czech for the cuddling up of smaller Republic is aggressively competing 1. Regional Organization: The Czechs state-entities to the great powers for for every open position in Euro- seem to have an aversion to mutual benefit.” The same might Atlantic institutions. The reason the messy business of developing have been said at the end of the Cold institutions matter is that the good regional partners and to prefer a kind War. words of the Czech Foreign Ministry of go-it-alone Czech exceptionalism. on Cuba will be remembered at And herein lies the problem. Czech Great powers tend to notice groups the State Department for an foreign policy vis-à-vis America has and in much the same way afternoon, but if a Czech were EU always been unabashedly reactive, that rivals command their attention. Commissioner for Competition that retrospective and nostalgic and not The rudimentary Baltic-Nordic would be remembered for far longer. always in a particularly attractive coordination certainly got the Of course, I am not suggesting that way. As the famous cri du coeur attention of Washington, and the Czech Republic threaten to have of 2009 phrased it, “Twenty years the current Polish-Baltic lobbying the Competition Commission sue after the end of the Cold War, efforts have had an impact Microsoft for $100 billion. But if this Central and Eastern European coun- in Brussels. On the negative side, groundless concern were to cross the tries are no longer at the heart of the fact that , Hungary and mind of the White House and result American foreign policy.” can create a cartel in support in greater military assistance, how of South Stream is something that all Why should they be? Twenty years would that be a bad thing? The reali- Euro-Atlantic powers have to take after anything, the world is rarely the ty of politics is that decision-making note of. From a political perspective, same. Czech foreign policy has spent is often opaque, and Great Powers one could say that Europe functions too much time trying to recover their will tend to seek relations with states more as a system of regional blocs pre-lapsarian state at the expense and people who are in a position than as an organization of member of a concerted effort to create to further their national interests. states. The tragic weakness of the conditions that would lead to Central European states is their 3. Comparative Advantage: The a new and more modern relationship inability to build cultural, historical Czech Republic has an extremely odd with the United States. Rather than and geographic coalitions. In the habit of promoting its least-attractive lay the predicate, Prague spent the not-so-distant past, the Czech attributes at the expense of qualities last 20 years grieving for the lost past Republic, Austria, Slovakia, , at which the Czechs truly excel. when Central Europe was at the Hungary and were part of the History does not offer us many heart of things. By contrast, during same political unit. This is not to examples of countries that have these 20 years Warsaw jettisoned its suggest the resurrection of sought a closer alliance with the romantic ideas about the United a Viennese monarchy, but only Czech military, including the Czech States and hammered out a new to emphasize that a way to coordi- people themselves. Why would relationship with Germany, while nate Central Europe from Warsaw to Prague propose its struggling and building an effective coordination Budapest is missing in today’s controversial Ministry of Defense as within the Weimar Group, a robust Europe. Prague, Bratislava the flagship of an upgraded relation- economy and an activist foreign and Budapest often still cancel out ship with the United States? Of policy. As a consequence, Poland is their votes on EU posts, budgets and course, the Czech military has made today a de facto Quad Power whose foreign policy choices. From the significant contributions in Bosnia, opinion matters on virtually all perspective of Washington, allies Afghanistan and Iraq, but this “volun- European and Euro-Atlantic issues. who can bring blocs of votes teerism” has not resulted in the up- By contrast, the Czech Republic’s to the UN, EU, WTO, or NATO graded relationship with the United influence in Washington and councils get all the attention. States that the Czech Republic seems presumably in Brussels has declined to have sought. Not only does this continuously since its high-water 2. Strategic Leadership Positions: emphasis on the military misread the mark when Havel was president. The Czech Republic has not worked

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No. 6/2014

United States, it also repeats a com- the other party wants. Relationships Conclusions: As I have argued, there mon mistake of small states. Ironical- can only be built on qualities that the are ample grounds to be skeptical ly, countries with the highest level of first party already possesses. Homely about the chances of a significant “volunteerism” in U.S.-led interna- girls who are great cooks should improvement in Czech-U.S. relations. tional operations, such as Georgia, avoid the swimsuit competition. Among these reasons, the timing Montenegro and Albania, seem to So too should the Czech Republic of a Czech overture is questionable. get short shrift in their relations with avoid hard-power topics where its No president in American history has the United States and cannot escape advantages cannot be brought so repeatedly and publicly dismissed their “small-state” status. For the to bear. To paraphrase Bethmann- and downplayed the interest of Czechs to overvalue the significance Hollweg, although “cuddling up” is the Czech Republic in returning of their military is all the more baf- clearly preferable to annexation, to the center of U.S. foreign policy. fling considering that the Czech in the 21st century it is better still President Obama’s “pivot to Asia” is Republic has other areas of policy to build a relationship on reciprocal as categorical a rejection of the that set the standard for European strengths. marriage proposal of Central Europe states. The success of the Czech as one can imagine. The president’s The Nordic region offers three Republic in diversifying its energy adamant view of the relative examples of small states that have supplies and vastly improving its importance of Europe and Asia has pursued an independent course energy independence comes imme- been further reinforced by a global and achieved outsized influence by diately to mind. Not to put too fine recession, declining U.S. Government making smart choices about a point on the subject, but when budgets, the rise of revisionist Russia, geography, regional strategy held the EU presidency the alarming spread of war and and comparative advantage. Norway Sweden had to retain Václav disorder, and the president’s declin- has maximized its geographical Bartuška to advise the presidency ing political mandate. Even if position and natural resources to and EU member states on energy the president were inclined to revisit carve out a significant trade security. Considering that energy the relationship with the Czech relationship with continental Europe security after, perhaps, terrorism is Republic (which he is not) he could while maximizing its role in NATO the most significant long-term not. and minimizing the encumbrance challenge for Europe, why wouldn’t of the EU. Sweden has built on its Secondly, the hidden assumption the Czech Republic emphasize its central location and the talent that closer ties with the United comparative advantage in this critical of Foreign Minister Carl Bildt to States are little more than area. Why does Prague insist on mili- become the regional a restoration of the status quo ante is tary cooperation when it has world- -builder and the arbiter of also hard to support. Apart from the class expertise in a multitrillion dollar the foreign policy from the Balkans admiration, high regard and, in many industry of great national security to Ukraine to the Middle East. cases, personal affection Americans interest to the United States and the And Finland has taken the weakness hold for the members of Charter 77 European Union? of its geographical position and and the freedom fighters who The comments above are intended to created a major trade route between ushered Czechoslovakia and later the illustrate the conceptual problems of the European Union and Russia. In all Czech Republic to freedom, the Czech approach to strengthening three cases, closely reasoned democracy and European ties to the United States. It is impos- and well-executed choices, grounded institutions, we are all guilty sible to improve relations between in individual geography, comparative of airbrushing our memories of hemispheres unless a country has advantage, regional cooperation and the past. The early 1990s was an established itself as a regional leader. profit, have solved the small-state exceptional period, created by the It is a waste of time to adjust national problem. Today, Norway, Sweden sterling personal character of Václav policy to please a distant power if the and Finland have influence beyond Havel and his close associates, and as aspiring republic has not placed its their size across Europe and the such is a misleading benchmark for citizens at the top of the institutions Atlantic, and the names of their the country’s political development. that make future policy. And it is senior officials are routinely on the As the glory days faded into the past futile to try to build a relationship on short list for the highest international and the Czech Republic returned an erroneous assumption about what positions. to European daily life, as often

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No. 6/2014

as not, the Czech people rejected at the example of Poland, in an effort and security is one example of the ballot box the very people to strengthen its standing and a partial solution. We already know Americans admired in favor of some attractiveness in international that the next president of the United post-Communist hack or politics. As was once said of NATO States will find a file on the vexing garden-variety populist. It is perhaps membership, “You get it when you problem of Europe’s energy security true that the Czech political class has no longer need it.” when he or she reaches his or her never been as loathsome as Viktor desk at the White House. That would Apart from the facts that the Czech Orbán can be when he puts his mind be the time to introduce new ideas Republic never had such a great to it or as mad as the Kaczýnski from Prague. relationship with the United States in brothers have been after a few the past, that President Obama has drinks, but Mirek Topolánek, already rejected closer relations, and Petr Nečas and Miroslav Zeman did that the United States is a worthless not make much of a mark as ally anyway, there is the problem of European statesmen. If we examine what a closer relationship the Czech the record of the last 20 years Republic could hope to achieve. closely—apart from strong cultural As I have argued, the high-profile ties and enduring personal subjects of international cooperation friendships—relations between (military alliance and liberalized Prague and Washington have been trade) are severely constrained by up and down, by which I mean budgets and both are market-weary. normal in the Central European Either would require expenditures of sense of “mediocre.” This is not cash and political capital beyond the to say relations cannot be improved capacity of the Czech Republic for an but it is to say relations have not uncertain result. In this situation, the fallen from some Olympian heights. Czech Republic faces a multiyear Thirdly, this deliberate misremem- effort to reinvent the idea of bering of the past has blinded us to a unified Central Europe, to build the truth of Radosław Sikorski’s a team within Euro-Atlantic criticism. The United States is indeed institutions, and to develop an area a “worthless ally” at the moment. of cooperation in which the Czech Some of this is due to compelling Republic excels and which will structural reasons: the geography resonant with the broader European of Central Europe, the asymmetry public. In short, there has to be of power, and the shifting correlation a clear and quantifiable payoff. In my of power and interest worldwide. view, if the Czech Republic intends to There are also a range of coincidental court an America ally that sees “soft factors, such as recession, party power” as central to its future preferences and demographics, relationship with Europe, then which cause the United States energy security is possibly the most to have entered into an extended powerful of the “soft powers” and period of functional isolationism. has the added benefit of being Isolationism and Democratic profitable. presidents are much like the The best and possibly only way for common cold; there is nothing to do the Czech Republic to command the except wait until it’s over. In this attention of the United States and sense, the Czech Republic would other allies is to provide a solution or have been better advised to follow part of a solution to a problem that a course broadly independent of U.S. the United States and the European foreign policy earlier and more Union have not been able to fix. aggressively, as suggested by The Czech model of energy diversity

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