Jurnal Ekonomi, Volume 22 Nomor 3, Oktober 2020 Copyright @ 2020, oleh Program Pascasarjana, Universitas Borobudur ______Determinants of Palm Oil Productivity in Province By : Masnilam Hasibuan, Nurdelila, Rahmat

Faculty of Economics Graha Nusantara University, Padang Sidempuan, , Email : [email protected]

Abstract : The purpose of this study is to identify, review, analyze and describe various macroeconomic factors such as land area, investment, infrastructure, total production and inflation that affect the productivity of oil palm plantations in North Sumatra province. The research method used is the multiple regression method with the error correction model. This model is used to see that the relationship in the short term is with economic theory and in its solution to the variables of time series that are not stationary in the level and the regression of gradual decrease. From this analysis we will obtain a short-term regression equation towards the long-term equilibrium. The type of data used is secondary data. The results of the investigation show that land area, investment, infrastructure, total production and inflation simultaneously have a significant effect, while the area of land, investment, infrastructure, total production partially has a significant and positive effect, and Inflation has a significant and negative effect on the productivity of oil palm plantations in the north sumatra province in the short and long term balance.

Keywords: land area, investment, infrastructure, total production, inflation, palm oil productivity

INTRODUCTION The oil palm plantation business was

previously a plantation managed by the North Sumatra, as one of the central oil private sector and the state, but now it is palm plantations in Indonesia, produces an also managed by the community. This is average of 1.7 million tons of CPO per due to the fact that this palm oil product year. This amount reaches 8.23% of the receives great attention from the provincial total national production of CPO per year. government. In addition, if this product The area of oil palm plantations in North continues to develop, it will have a Sumatra increases every year. This positive impact on regional economic widespread increase occurred due to the development, including the absorption of conversion of agricultural land, especially labor, the opening of opportunities for rice fields, especially in the area of investment in advanced industries of the Langkat, Serdang Bedagai and oil palm, the impact on regional income, Labuhanbatu. The North Sumatra Province education , comparative advantage and with a total area of 72,981 km² with a poverty reduction. population of 13,937.797 million (BPS, 2015) is grouped in agricultural areas The potential to develop oil palm because the majority of the population plantations in North Sumatra is supported lives in the agricultural sector. The main by available resources, so the idea of performance of the agricultural sector making North Sumatra a barometer of consists of annual crops (rubber, oil palm, national fisheries is not impossible. One of coffee). The type of annual plant the objectives of plantation revitalization is developed in the province of North to increase the productivity of oil palm Sumatra is not the same for each province. plantations. Efforts to optimize productivity can not only be based on the

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Jurnal Ekonomi, Volume 22 Nomor 3, Oktober 2020 Copyright @ 2020, oleh Program Pascasarjana, Universitas Borobudur ______expansion of land due to the limited inflationary conditions Stable able to potential of the land for oil palm plants, so provide better productivity of palm oil in the productivity of the oil palm per hectare the province of North Sumatra. Therefore, of the sown areas should be increased it is expected that the productivity of the immediately. For this reason, it is oil palm can contribute significantly to the important to identify the efforts needed to increase in the value of the gross regional increase the productivity of oil palm product (GRDP) of the province of North plantations in North Sumatra, given the Sumatra. The benefits of the presence of great potential they have for them to oil palm plantations in Sumatra North achieve production objectives to support Sumatra are not only enjoyed by those the needs of Sumatra's CPO agroindustry. who own or work in oil palm plantations. North and strengthen them to meet the The oil palm plantations are also one of the growing demand of the market in the economic locomotives that attract the future. growth of the economic sectors of North Sumatra, both in production, income and By increasing the productivity of oil palm added value. Even oil palm plantations plantations in North Sumatra, it is also also attract and integrate the rural and necessary that the participation of urban economy of North Sumatra. investors from both domestic and foreign investors accelerate more plantations, the LITERATURE REVIEW amount of palm oil production so that the productivity level of the oil palm in North Macroeconomic Theory Sumatra is even bigger. For the next five to ten years, it is estimated that North "What is Macroeconomics?" The answer Sumatra still leads the investment. to this question seems at first trivial. Especially if a series of large-scale projects Macroeconomics is by definition a branch can be carried out on time. Among other of economics which investigates the things, the Sei Mangkei Palm Oil Industry relationship among macroeconomic Grouping Project in , variables, such as national product, total Kualanamu - Tebingtinggi Toll Road employment, the monetary aggregate, the Project, which forms part of the toll road general price and the like. (IWAI, 2011) that connects the tip of Sumatra Island, that is, Aceh to Lampung. Another mega Much of the macroeconomic research on project that investors expect is the fiscal policy and the business cycle can be development and expansion of categorized in one of three areas: (1) Kualatanjung Port, Batubara Regency. The analysis of fiscal policy from a normative port managed by Pelindo I Medan is point of view; (2) descriptive exposition of expected to develop much more than the how fiscal authorities actually behave; and the port of Belawan, and has an (3) theoretical and empirical analysis of international port level. the effects of fiscal policy on the business In the future, it is expected that several cycle.(Fatás & Mihov, 2012) factors, such as the addition of the plantation area, the large number of Macroeconomics investigates aggregate domestic investors and the interests of behavior by imposing simplifying PMA in the palm oil industry, the massive assumptions (“assume there are many development of infrastructure that can identical firms that produce the same support the increase in productivity of the good”) but without abstracting from the oil palm and the growing number of palm essential features. These assumptions are oil production each year and supported by used in order to build macroeconomic

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Jurnal Ekonomi, Volume 22 Nomor 3, Oktober 2020 Copyright @ 2020, oleh Program Pascasarjana, Universitas Borobudur ______models. Typically, such models have three the contributions of labour, capital and aspects: the ‘story’, the mathematical total factor productivity, the latter model, and a graphical containing information about technological representation.(Kunst & Franses, 1998) and allocative efficiency and hence about the supply-side functioning.(Hájková & An economy's macroeconomic health can Hurník, 2007) be defined by a number of goals: growth in One concept that is invariably considered the standard of living, low unemployment, in a course in mathematicalnalysis for and low inflation, to name the most business or economics students is the important. How can macroeconomic notion of a production function for a single policy be used to pursue these goals? product firm. Such a function describes the Monetary policy, which involves policies maximum amount of output that the firm that affect bank lending, interest rates, and can produce in a fixed period of time as a financial capital markets, is conducted by a function of the inputs (or factors of nation’s central bank. (Wiser, 2013) production) that are available to the firm. These factors of production have Productivity traditionally been placed in four categories: land, labor, capital, and The Cobb–Douglas production function is entrepreneurship. (Beer, 2010) frequently employed in the economic analysis of production and costs. This The Cobb-Douglas function has had a long production function relates output and successful life and is still a popular produced to the inputs of production. If production function. The parameters labor hours, L, and capital, K, are the only estimated from this function have provided inputs in production, the Cobb–Douglas results which seem to be meaningful from the point of view of economic theory. In a production function is: majority of the cases the function fitted has been of the unrestricted type, in the sense

that the parameters were allowed to take where A is a coefficient that represents the any value whatsoever, positive or negative, level of technology and are coefficients indicating how output responds to high or low. What seems strange is that changes in each of these inputs (additional despite the known unreliability of input data in general, and capital data in inputs can be added to the function above in a similar fashion). A convenient particular, the published results always had feature of the Cobb–Douglas production parameters of the "right" sign and function above is that ECONOMIES OF magnitude, as expected a priori on the SCALE in production can be basis of economic theory.(Diwan, 2006) determined by examining the Land Area coefficients and .(McAuliffe, 2015)

Land is a delineable area of the earth's The performance of the supply side of an terrestrial surface, encompassing all economy is often identified with the attributes of the biosphere immediately growth rate of potential output. Potential above or below this surface including output is not observed in reality, how-ever, those of the near-surface, climate, the soil and has to be approximated. The use of the and terrain forms, the surface hydrology production function method for the (including shallow lakes, rivers, marshes, measurement of potential output growth and swamps), the nearsurface sedimentary takes into account different sources of an layers and associated groundwater reserve, economy’s productive capacity, namely the plant and animal populations, the

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Jurnal Ekonomi, Volume 22 Nomor 3, Oktober 2020 Copyright @ 2020, oleh Program Pascasarjana, Universitas Borobudur ______human settlement pattern and physical Investment under the definition of ICSID results of past and present human activity is a long term transfer of financial (terracing, water storage or drainage resources-capital flow-from one country to structures, roads, buildings, etc.). (FAO another (the recipient of the investment) in 1995) (Batista e Silva, 2011) order to acquire interests in a corporation, a transaction which normally entails Land use represents a critical intersection certain risks to the potential investor. of economic and ecological systems. Land- (Grabowski, 2014) use changes are most often directly linked with economic decisions. This recognition Infrastructure has led LUC to choose an economic framework as the organizing principle, Until today we cannot dispose of a well- resulting in a broad set of project activities founded and useful definition of geared towards providing a biophysical infrastructure ("infra" stems from the Latin and geographical underpinning to the language, meaning below, thus representation of land-based economic "infrastructure" can be taken to express sectors in modeling land and water use "foundation"). Numerous formulations decisions.(Hubacek & Van Den Bergh, have been put to the test, leading to a 2006) substantial diversity and complexity of suggestions and problems which shall not Investment be described here in detail (cf., for example, Jochimsen/Gustafsson 1970a, Investment value is defined by Mr. 1970b, Frey 1972, 1978, Biehl 1986, Williams as "the present worth of future Nijkamp 1986, Lakshmanan 1989, Aberle dividends, or of future coupons and 1995, Rietveld/Bruinsma 1998, principal." He holds that "it is of practical Haughwout 2000b, Nijkamp 2000). All of importance to every investor because it is these formulations have in common that the critical value above which he cannot infrastructure, essentially material go in buying or holding, without added infrastructure, is to be supplied by the risk. (Edwards & Williams, 2006) state. Also, in the public discussion, the term made a successful terminological Investment is defined as the commitment career, rising to a formula of political of current financial resources in order to technocracy. Traditionally, "infrastructure" achieve higher gains in the future. It deals has been applied to permanent installations with what is called uncertainty domains. required for military purposes. Modern From this definition, the importance of general usage of the term concerns the time and future arises as they are two necessary important elements in investment. Hence, economic and organizational foundation of the information that may help shape up a a highly developed economy (transport vision about the levels of certainty in the network, labor force etc.) status of investment in the future is (Drosdowski/Scholze- significant. From an economic perspective, Stubenrecht/Wermke 1997: 359).(Buhr, investment and saving are different; saving 2003) is known as the total earnings that are not spent on consumption, whether invested to There is no standard definition of achieve higher returns or not.(Meltzer, infrastructure across economic studies. 2015) Tinbergen (1962) introduces the distinction between infrastructure (for example, roads and education) and

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Jurnal Ekonomi, Volume 22 Nomor 3, Oktober 2020 Copyright @ 2020, oleh Program Pascasarjana, Universitas Borobudur ______superstructure (manufacturing, agricultural Inflation is the rate of increase in prices and mining activities) without neither a over a given period of time. Inflation is precise definitions nor any theoretic typically a broad measure, such as the references of these terms. infrastructure as overall increase in prices or the increase in the sum of material, institutional and the cost of living in a country. But it can personal facilities and data which are also be more narrowly calculated—for available to the economic agents and certain goods, such as food, or for services, which contribute to realizing the such as a haircut, for example. Whatever equalization of the remuneration of the context, inflation represents how much comparable inputs in the case of a suitable more expensive the relevant set of goods allocation of resources, that is complete and/or services has become over a certain integration and maximum level of period, most commonly a year. (Oner, economic activities. (Torrisi, 2009) 2012)

Finally, Fay et al. ((2011), p. 333) define In general, the cause of inflation in that “infrastructure services are mostly developed countries is broadly identified provided through networks, a fact that as growth of money supply. In developing implies a nonlinear relation with output”. countries, in contrast, inflation is not a But even though Fay et al. mention two purely monetary phenomenon. Beside, studies which focus on the sectors factors typically related to fiscal telecommunication and roads, a more imbalances such as higher money growth detailed definition of infrastructure is not and exchange rate depreciation arising developed. Equivalently, Egert, Kozluk from a balance of payments crisis and Sutherland (2009) and Bühler (2004) dominate the inflation process in name infrastructure as networks. Both do developing countries, as discussed by not elaborate on the implications of Sergent & Wallace.(Totonchi, 2011) infrastructure and network theory for economic growth, productivity and Philips curve explain about the competition.(Egert, Kozluk, & Sutherland, relationship between unemployment rate 2009) and inflation rate in economy. During inflation, the value of money will fall. The Inflation low inflation rate results that the price of goods and services will not increase Inflation can be defined as a sustained or gradually. Besides, unemployment rate continuous rise in the general price level refers to groups of labor who willing to or, alternatively, as a sustained or work in a particular job, with a particular continuous fall in the value of money. wage rate, but couldn’t obtain it due to Several things should be noted about this some economic problems.(Islam, Abdul definition. First, inflation refers to the Ghani, Mahyudin, & Manickam, 2017) movement in the general level of prices. It does not refer to changes in one price Hypothesis Development relative to other prices. These changes are common even when the overall level of The study hypothesis is based on literature prices is stable.2 Second, the prices are review and the results of previous studies, those of goods and services, not assets. so it can be interference to the problem of Third, the rise in the price level must be somewhat substantial and continue over a research in the form of the alternative period longer than a day, week, or month. hypothesis as a temporary answer research. (Labonte, 2011) It can be formulated hypothesis of the research is: land area, investment,

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Jurnal Ekonomi, Volume 22 Nomor 3, Oktober 2020 Copyright @ 2020, oleh Program Pascasarjana, Universitas Borobudur ______infrastructure, total production, inflation and the regression of decrease. Direct simultaneously and partially significant regression is a chaotic regression, where effect on palm oil productivity in the north the results of the regression are significant from unrelated data. To return to the long- sumatra province in the short and long term equilibrium value, the condition is the term balance. existence of a cointegration relation Theoretically,the effects of land area, between its constituent variables. investment, infrastructure, total production, inflation are determinant From this analysis we will obtain a short- toward palm oil productivity in the north term regression equation towards the long- sumatra province. term equilibrium. Also, if there is a long- term trend in these variables, then the Research Methodology analysis of multiple regression tests is used

This research is quantitative with using the OLS (Ordinary Least Square) simultaneous equations model building method as a long-term equation. Based on using secondary data of time series during the results of the calculations and ten years 2008 – 2017 using quarterly data regression analysis can also be used to n = 40. The model consists of one respond to the existing hypothesis that can equations that the influence of land area, be known about the factors that most investment, infrastructure, total influence the problem of productivity. production, inflation determinants on palm An error correction model (ECM) was oil productivity in the north sumatra province in the short and long term developed to estimate the speed at which balance. The model equations are: the dependent variable returned to equilibrium after a change in the Long-term estimation equations : independent variables (Banerjee, Dolado, & Mestre, 1998). Palm oil productivity = β0 + β1Ln_LLt + β2Ln_INVt + β3Ln_INFRt + The cointegration procedure developed in β4Ln_JPt + β5Ln_INFLt Johansen (Johansen, 1991) and Johansen

and Juselius (Johansen and Juselius, 1990) Short-term estimation equations : was employed to test the long run

relationship in Model. Two types of the Palm oil productivity = α β0 + Δβ1∆Ln_LLt-1 + β2∆Ln_INVt-1 + Johansen test were specified, one with β3∆Ln_INFRt-1 + trace and the other with eigenvalue. The ∆Ln_JPt-1- β5∆Ln_INFLt-1 - β6RESt-1 null hypothesis for the trace test states that the number of cointegrating vectors is less The data analysis method used to solve the than or equal to r, while the null problem in this research uses the analysis hypothesis for the eigenvalue test is the of the error correction model or ECM and number of cointegrating vector is equal to Multiple Regression with the OLS r. The null hypothesis is rejected when the (Ordinary Least Square) method because test statistic is greater than the critical the data are not stationary at the level, but value. Rejecting the null hypothesis means stationary at the level of differentiation and there is a cointegration among the the two variables are cointegrated. The variables in the model, thus verifying that method used to see the short-term these variables have a long-run relationship is with economic theory and relationship. (Sjö, 2008) in its solution to the variables of time series that are not stationary in the level

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Jurnal Ekonomi, Volume 22 Nomor 3, Oktober 2020 Copyright @ 2020, oleh Program Pascasarjana, Universitas Borobudur ______RESULTS & DISCUSSION the probability values greater than 0.05 can Normality Test thus be concluded that the probability of regression disturbances are normally Based on the test results of the above distributed for Jarque Bera probability histogram Jarque Bera 0.0472215 where value is greater than 0.05.

Figure 1 Normality Test

Multicollinearity contains no multicollinearity problems, so Based on test results correlation that no these variables are free from variables have a correlation value above multicollinearity problems. 0.80. It stated that the regression model

Table 1 Matrix Correlation Test

Heteroscedasticity 0.4526 is greater than 0.05. It can be Based on the test results in which the concluded that the regression model is free White Probability Chi-squared value of of symptoms heteroskedasticity

Table 2 Heteroskedasticity White Test

Autocorrelation 0.9335 is greater than 0.05. It can be Based on test results Lagrange-Multiplier concluded that the regression model is free where Probability Chi-squared value of from the problem of autocorrelation Table 3 Autocorrelation LM Test

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Stationarity test Stationarity test data in this study the first stage in data estimation is stationary test data using the unit root test (unit root test)

Table 4 Unit Root Tes

In the previous table you can see the 0.05. Up to this stage, for all the variables, behavior of the data of each variable. it can not be said that it is stationary at the Based on the results of the augmented same level, that is, at the level. Therefore, Dickey-Fuller (ADF) test at the level that it is necessary to perform a degree of includes the intersection, it can be seen integration or stationarity test in the degree that all variables at this level have a of difference until all the variables probability value greater than the value of observed are stationary in the same degree.

Table 5. Degree of integration test (first level of difference)

In the previous table, the results of the stationary data conditions at the first level ADF statistical test are shown in the first of difference or a degree of integration. difference showing that the null hypothesis is rejected, that is, the data on the palm oil Cointegration test productivity (Ln_PPKS), Land area For the cointegration tests between the (Ln_LL ), Investment (Ln_INV), Land Area (Ln_LL), the Investment Infrastructure (Ln_INFR), Total (Ln_INV), the Infrastructure (Ln_INFR), Production (Ln_JP), and the Total Production (Ln_JP) and the Inflation (Ln_INFL) after being discarded Inflation (Ln_INFL) in the once the data becomes stationary. With a palm oil productivity (Ln_PPKS) method probability value less than 0.05. This and results were used by Johansen method. means that all these variables do not These are shown as follows: contain root-unit problems and have

Table 6. Johansen cointegration test

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Jurnal Ekonomi, Volume 22 Nomor 3, Oktober 2020 Copyright @ 2020, oleh Program Pascasarjana, Universitas Borobudur ______From the results of the previous test, you (Ln_PPKS) in the long term there is can see that the value of Trace Statistic cointegration in the equation model. (204.3252)> Critical Value (95.75366) and Probability value 0.0000 <0.05, as well as Error Correction Model (ECM) the value of Max Eigen Statistic Based on the tests of stationarity and (97.46798)> Critical Value (40.07757) and Cointegration that have been carried out, Value of probability 0.0000 <0.05, so it the analysis used is the Error Correction can be concluded that the Land Area Model (ECM) because a long-term balance is produced. Through estimates that show (Ln_LL), Investment (Ln_INV), the causal relationship between the Infrastructure (Ln_INFR), Total independent variables and the dependent Production (Ln_JP) and Inflation variable are the following: (Ln_INFL) in palm oil productivity

Long Term Estimates :

Table 7 Long Term Estimates Test

The calculation result obtained is the positive impact on the palm oil significance probability value ≤ 0.05, productivity. 0.0000 which means a significant effect, indicating that the variable land area, Probability value Total Production less investment, infrastructure, total than α (0.0001 ≤ 0.05), it can be concluded production, inflation simultaneously have that the variable Total Production a significant influence on the palm oil significant and positive impact on the palm productivity in north sumatera. oil productivity.

Probability value Land Area is less than α Probability value Inflation less than (0.0000 ≤ 0.05), it can be concluded that α(0.0007 ≤ 0.05), it can be the variable Land Area significant and concluded that the variable Inflation significant and negative impact on the palm oil productivity.

Short Term Estimates : Table 8 Short Term Estimates Test

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The calculation result obtained is the Batista e Silva, F. (2011). Land Function: significance probability value ≤ 0.05, origin and evolution of the concept. 0.0000 which means a significant effect, Cadernos Curso De Doutoramento indicating that the variable land area, Em Geografia Flup. investment, infrastructure, total Beer, G. (2010). The Cobb-Douglas production, inflation simultaneously have Production Function. Mathematics a significant influence on the palm oil Magazine. productivity in north sumatera. https://doi.org/10.2307/2690031 Probability value Land Area is less than α Buhr, W. (2003). What is Infrastructure? (0.0000 ≤ 0.05), it can be concluded that Volkswirtschaftliche the variable Land Area significant and Diskussionsbeiträge. positive impact on the palm oil Diwan, R. K. (2006). On the Cobb productivity. Douglas Production Function. Southern Economic Journal. Probability value Total Production less https://doi.org/10.2307/1055504 than α (0.0092 ≤ 0.05), it can be concluded Edwards, G. W., & Williams, J. B. (2006). that the variable Total Production The Theory of Investment Value. significant and positive impact on the palm Journal of the American Statistical oil productivity. Association.

Probability value Inflation less than α (0.0495 ≤ https://doi.org/10.2307/22791810.05), it can be concluded that the variable Inflation significant and negative impact on the palm oil productivity. Egert, B., Kozluk, T., & Sutherland, D. CONCLUSIONS (2009). Infrastructure and Growth: Land area, investment, infrastructure, total Empirical evidence. OECD production, and inflation simultaneously Economics Department Working have a significant influence on the palm oil Paper. productivity in north sumatera in the short Fatás, A., & Mihov, I. (2012). Fiscal and long term balance. policy as a stabilization tool. B.E.

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Jurnal Ekonomi, Volume 22 Nomor 3, Oktober 2020 Copyright @ 2020, oleh Program Pascasarjana, Universitas Borobudur ______From single to multi-disciplinary https://doi.org/10.1002/97811187853 approaches. Ecological Economics. 17.weom080116 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.200 Meltzer, J. P. (2015). Investment. In 5.03.033 Bilateral and Regional Trade Islam, R., Abdul Ghani, A. B., Mahyudin, Agreements: Commentary and E., & Manickam, N. (2017). Analysis. Determinants of Factors that https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9781107 Affecting Inflation in Malaysia. 501461.011 International Journal of Economics Oner, C. (2012). Inflation: Prices on the and Financial Issues. rise. IWAI, K. (2011). Financial Crisis. Sjö, B. (2008). Testing for Unit Roots and TRENDS IN THE SCIENCES. Cointegration. Statistical Working https://doi.org/10.5363/tits.14.6_43 Paper No. 2. Kunst, R. M., & Franses, P. H. (1998). The Torrisi, G. (2009). Public infrastructure: impact of seasonal constants on definition, classification and forecasting seasonally cointegrated time series. Journal of Forecasting. measurement issues. Economics, https://doi.org/10.1002/(SICI)1099- Management, and Financial Markets. 131X(199803)17:2<109::AID- Totonchi, J. (2011). Macroeconomic Theories of Inflation. In International FOR672>3.0.CO;2-U Labonte, M. (2011). Inflation : Causes , Conference on Economics and Costs , and Current Status. Finance Research. Macroeconomics Policy. Wiser, M. (2013). Principles of McAuliffe, R. E. (2015). Cobb-Douglas Macroeconomics. American Journal Production Function. In Wiley of Agricultural Economics. Encyclopedia of Management. https://doi.org/10.1093/ajae/aas074

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