DIPLOMATIC HISTORY: THE TURKEY- PROTOCOLS

David L. Phillips

The Protocol on the Establishment of Diplomatic declared independence. NK followed by declaring itself Relations and the Protocol on the Development of independent from Azerbaijan in September 1991, resulting Bilateral Relations between the Republic of Armenia in full-scale war. NK formally declared independence on and the Republic of Turkey (“The Protocols”) were January 6, 1992. Approximately 900,000 people were signed on October 10, 2009. The Protocols represented displaced by the conflict. an unprecedented advancement in relations between Turkey expressed solidarity with its Turkic brethren Turkey and Armenia. However, failure to ratify them was in Azerbaijan by joining Baku's economic blockade of a significant bilateral, regional, and international setback. Armenia. Though a ceasefire was negotiated in 1994, This article is a diplomatic history of events leading up no final peace agreement was reached between Armenia to signing of the Protocols. It assesses the work of Turkish and Azerbaijan. Turkey recognized Armenia, but did not and Armenian diplomats negotiating the Protocols and establish diplomatic relations. Armenia's western border the role of Swiss mediation. The monograph evaluates with Turkey and its eastern border with Azerbaijan remain ensuing problems, including conditions imposed on closed to this day. ratification, as well as the effect of domestic politics in Turkey and Armenia on normalization. Contact At present, Armenia is not a foreign policy priority Beginning in June 2000, prominent Turks and for Ankara. The Protocols may be dormant, yet they Armenians, including former diplomats and leading still provide a roadmap to the way forward. Studying Diaspora representatives, held a series of exploratory the history of Turkish-Armenian rapprochement meetings at the Diplomatic Academy of Vienna. serves as the basis for specific recommendations The governments of Turkey and Armenia gave their aimed at (i) intensifying civil society activities, (ii) tacit approval.2 So-called track two involves contact, expanding commercial cooperation, and (iii) stimulating communication, and cooperation between civil society intergovernmental contact. representatives who come together to discuss their differences. By engaging private citizens in developing History ideas and experimenting with solutions, non-state actors Turks and Armenians are divided by different are able to creatively explore the underlying conditions perceptions of history and separated by a border closed to that gave rise to conflict and develop joint strategies for travel and trade. Central to their disagreement is the huge addressing shared problems through reciprocal efforts. gap in national perceptions of events that occurred at the Track two contributes to the development of mutual end of the Ottoman Empire. understanding with the goal of transferring insights to Beginning on April 24, 1915, Armenians were decision-makers and shaping public opinion. It is not a rounded up and deported. More than a million perished substitute for official diplomacy; however, its flexibility between 1915 and 1923. Some Turks dispute these facts, helps compensate for the inherent constraints on officials. underscoring the war context in which events occurred. The Vienna meetings culminated in the creation They refer to “shared suffering,” recalling their families of the Turkish-Armenian Reconciliation Commission who fled their homes in the Caucasus, the Balkans, and (TARC), which was announced on July 9, 2001. TARC the Black Sea region as the Ottoman Empire collapsed. broke the ice. It served as a lightning rod creating space At the beginning of World War I, the Ottoman Empire for other civil society initiatives. It focused on confidence- spanned 4.3 million square kilometers. By war's end, it building measures (CBMs), including travel and trade was reduced to 770,000 square kilometers. Between 1911 between Turkey and Armenia. In addition to catalyzing and 1926, an estimated 2.9 million were either killed or dozens of civil society initiatives, TARC worked with forced to migrate to Turkey.1 the International Center for Transitional Justice (ICTJ) to Turkish-Armenian relations are also influenced by “facilitate the provision of an independent legal analysis the conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh (NK), an Armenian on the applicability of the Genocide territory placed by Stalin in Soviet Azerbaijan. When the Convention to events which occurred during the early broke up in 1991, Armenia and Azerbaijan twentieth century.” The legal analysis presented to TARC THE HARRIMAN REVIEW

on February 4, 2003, found that: In his 2004 Remembrance Day statement on the Armenian genocide, President George W. Bush indicated: International law generally prohibits the “On this day I commend individuals in Armenia retroactive application of treaties. The Genocide and Turkey who have worked to support peace and Convention contains no provision mandating reconciliation, including through the Turkish-Armenian its retroactive application. To the contrary, the Reconciliation Commission.” In his 2005 statement, Bush text strongly suggests it was intended to impose specifically highlighted the ICTJ-facilitated analysis as a prospective obligations only on the states party way forward on reconciliation. to it. Therefore, no legal, financial, or territorial claim arising out of the events could successfully Joint History Commission be made against any individual or state under On April 10, 2005, Erdogan sent a letter to the convention.3 Kocharian proposing the establishment of a joint history commission to study archives and historical records. He The analysis also concluded that “the term genocide wrote, “I believe that such an initiative would shed light [...] may be applied to many and varied events that on a disputed period of history and also constitute a step occurred prior to entry into force of the Convention.” It towards contributing to the normalization of relations continued, between our countries.”6 Erdogan's proposal was intended as a game-changer. As developed by the International Criminal Not only did he expect that the commission would refute Court (whose statute adopts the Convention's the genocide, he also wanted to undermine efforts aimed definition of genocide), the crime of genocide at genocide recognition by demonstrating that Turks and has four elements: (1) one or more persons were Armenians were talking to each other. Ankara resents killed; (2) such persons belonged to a particular foreign parliaments “legislating history.” As of early national, ethnic, racial, or religious group; (3) 2012, nineteen countries and the European Parliament the conduct took place as part of a manifest have recognized the Armenian genocide; Slovenia and pattern of similar conduct against the group; and treat denial of genocide as a crime. (4) the conduct was perpetrated with the intent Ankara also demands that Armenia recognize its to destroy in whole, or in part, a national, ethnic, existing borders. However, Armenia recognized Turkey's racial or religious group, as such. At least some borders in the 1921 Treaty of Moscow and the 1922 of the perpetrators knew that the consequence of Treaty of Kars. Both Turkey and Armenia are members of their actions would be the destruction of, in whole the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe or in part, the Armenians of eastern Anatolia, as (OSCE), which requires member states to respect the such, or acted purposefully towards this goal, territorial integrity of other members. and therefore, possessed the requisite genocidal In response to Erdogan's proposal for a joint intent. The Events, viewed collectively, can thus history commission, Kocharian proposed an official be said to include all the elements of the crime intergovernmental commission on all bilateral issues. of genocide as defined by the Convention, and Kocharian's letter of April 25, 2005, indicated, “We have legal scholars as well as historians, politicians, proposed and propose again that, without pre-conditions, journalists and other people would be justified we establish normal relations between our two countries. in continuing to so describe them.4 In that context, an intergovernmental commission can meet to discuss any and all outstanding issues between The full impact of the analysis has yet to be realized. our two nations, with the aim of resolving them and TARC's work was endorsed in a letter to the peoples coming to an understanding.” of Turkey and Armenia signed by fifty-three Nobel The exchange of letters resulted in a series of laureates. Organized by Elie Wiesel, recipient of the exploratory meetings between Turkish and Armenian 1986 Nobel Prize for Peace, the signatories called on officials. On July 14, 2005, reports surfaced of “secret Turkey and Armenia to ease tensions “through additional talks” between Turkish Undersecretary Ahmet Uzumcu treaty arrangements and full diplomatic relations.” It and Armenian Deputy Foreign Minister Arman also commended civil society initiatives and called Kirakossian in an unnamed European country. A total for normalizing travel and trade between Turkey and of three meetings were held in Vienna. Ankara insisted Armenia, adding: “An open border would greatly that no mediators be involved, deliberately seeking to improve economic conditions for communities on both exclude U.S. and Russian officials. It also wanted to limit sides of the border and enable human interaction, which the influence of the Armenian Diaspora by insisting on is essential for mutual understanding.”5 confidentiality.

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The Vienna talks started in mid-2005 and ended the also highly regarded for his work bridging gaps between following year. An official from Switzerland's European adversarial parties on a range of historical issues in Directorate played an informal facilitation role, but Europe. the meetings were exploratory and Switzerland had In response to Switzerland's concept paper on no mandate. At the final meeting, Uzumcu proposed “Dialogue Turkey-Armenia” of September 2007, Ankara two parallel commissions, one on historical issues and submitted its views in writing on January 4, 2008. The another on bilateral matters. He indicated that progress Swiss revised the paper on January 29, and submitted it in the former would result in Ankara opening its border to the Turks and Armenians. Turkish officials focused on for diplomats to travel. The border would be opened for preliminary ideas for the establishment of a joint history normal travel and trade based on the commission's final commission, insisting that the border could only be conclusions. Kirakossian proposed one commission with opened when the commission had been established and sub-commissions. When Uzumcu rejected this format, had started its work. After Ambuhl attended Sarkisian's broke off the talks. inaugural, he presented both sides with a revised Dialogue Turkey-Armenia paper and invited Apakan and Swiss Mediation Kirakossian for their first trilateral meeting on May 21, Switzerland's Foreign Minister Micheline Calmy- 2008. Rey was scheduled to visit Ankara in October 2003. The The meeting was held at an ornate castle in Turkish MFA, however, cancelled her visit following a Gertzenzee, a hamlet close to Bern, which was taken over decision of the Canton Vaud Swiss Regional Parliament to by Switzerland's central bank and turned into its study recognize the Armenian genocide. Relations deteriorated center. The Turkish delegation at Gertzenzee was led further when the Lower House of the Swiss Parliament by Apakan and included Unal Qevikoz. The Armenian recognized the genocide on December 16, 2003. delegation was led by Kirakossian and included Armenian Switzerland facilitated a meeting between Turkish Ambassador to Switzerland Zohrab Mnatsakanyan and and Armenian officials on the margins of the UN General its BSEC Representative Karen Mirzoyan. The session Assembly on September 16, 2007. Michael Ambuhl, was a chance to get acquainted, gauge expectations, and a highly regarded diplomat and negotiator who was explore the agenda. It was also an opportunity to define serving as State Secretary and Head of the Directorate Switzerland's role as facilitator. “Both sides rapidly of Political Affairs in Switzerland's Federal Department agreed that we should take it over,” says Ambuhl. “We for Foreign Affairs, was the point man. Switzerland's had an informal mandate. It would have been complicated role as an honest broker was based on the concept of to negotiate a written agreement.”9 neutrality. Switzerland had recent experience making its At the end of the meeting, Ambuhl issued the “good offices” available on Iran and the Russia-Georgia “Swiss Non-Paper Outline of the Discussion.” The non- conflict. Switzerland also has experience that is relevant paper indicated that the process sought to achieve the to Turkey-Armenia issues. It is a small land-locked “normalization and development of bilateral relations, country with 700 years of history as an independent state resolving differences and diverging interpretations surrounded by big neighbors. Ambuhl was not given regarding the historical past.” It also called for the any specific guidance. He was told to “bring (Turks and creation of a “working group to elaborate the modalities Armenians) together and do something good. You're just for the establishment of an historical commission.” not allowed to spoil it.”7 The second meeting in Gertzenzee took place in July Ankara agreed to broaden the scope of talks to include 2008. The parties agreed that their work would focus on opening and mutual recognition of the borders, as well the establishment of diplomatic relations, normalization, as the establishment of diplomatic relations, if Yerevan mutual recognition, and opening the border, and creation agreed to the joint historical commission. Professor Jean- of a trilateral commission of experts dealing with the Francois Bergier briefed both sides. Bergier presented historical dimension. Ankara entered into the process and his methodology to Kirakossian in Bern, then visited was prepared to go along with the first two items, as long Ankara in December 2007 to brief Undersecretary of as the third item was realized. The historical commission Foreign Affairs Ertugrul Apakan. Bergier's work focused was its priority. Turkish officials sent Ambuhl a paper on what happened, why, and in what context. He was a entitled “Elements of a Tripartite Commission of specialist in the methodology for dealing with the past Experts and Historians” on July 23. Three days later, (when memories and historical truths do not overlap).”8 Swiss officials finalized their proposal for the tripartite The Bergier Commission had been established by Swiss commission and presented it to both sides. federal authorities to investigate Switzerland's conduct Meetings moved from confidence-building to during World War II and its handling of assets by Jewish substance, addressing the delicate question of sequencing. depositors who died during the Holocaust. Bergier was “Slowly, slowly, we prepared the text,” Ambuhl explains.

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“The text was always drafted by us, the Swiss.” The outside the Armenian Church during a ceremony led by third meeting at Gertzenzee was held on September 15. Mesrob marking the fortieth day after Dink's murder. Three Protocols became two, with the Protocol on the Prosecutors pressed charges against Dink's son Arat and historical commission integrated into the Protocol on the his Agos colleague, Serkis Seropyan, for publishing an Development of Relations. The Protocols were refined interview with Hrant Dink about the genocide. A rival during ministerial and working-level trilateral meetings website was launched entitled “We don't apologize.” in New York (September 22-24, 2008), Gertzenzee A service denial attack bombarded the on-line petition (October 25, 2008), Bern (January 21, 2009), Davos of the apology movement with millions of messages, (January 27, 2009), and on the margins of the Munich rendering it inoperable. The Internet attack was traced to Security Conference (February 7, 2009). Turkey's Interior Ministry. U.S. officials were not informed. Switzerland cultivates its independence, which is why it is not a Football Diplomacy member of the EU. Washington was kept in the dark, until Foreign Minister Abdullah Gul was one of the first a chance meeting between Apakan and Assistant Secretary foreign leaders to congratulate Serge Sarkisian when he of State for European and Eurasian Affairs Daniel P. was elected president on February 19, 2008. His letter Fried in the Lufthansa business lounge at the Munich “broke the ice, extending a new hand to the Armenian airport in December 2007. Congressional support for side.”14 In response, Sarkisian invited Gul to Yerevan to genocide recognition, the president's annual statement on watch the World Cup qualifying match between Turkey Remembrance Day, and upcoming presidential elections and Armenia on September 6, 2008. Sarkisian's newly- made it difficult for the to play a mediation appointed foreign minister, Edward Nalbandian, was role.10 tasked with arrangements. The Turkish delegation consisted of approximately Freedom of Expression 200 people, including business, civil society, and media Turkish-Armenian contacts occurred against the representatives. Hundreds of Armenians lined Gul's backdrop of international concerns about human rights in motorcade route, demanding that Turkey recognize the Turkey, especially Article 301 of the Turkish Penal Code, genocide and waving placards that read: “1915—Never which criminalizes “insulting Turkish identity.” Nobel Again.” They staged a torch vigil at the Armenian Prize Laureate Orhan Pamuk and well-known journalists Genocide Memorial and rallied near the presidential -- Murat Belge, Haluk §ahin, Erol Katircioglu, and Hasan palace. Sarkisian and Gul had a private dinner, during Cemal of the daily Milliyet -- were charged under Article which Gul reiterated Turkey's proposal to set up a joint 301. So was Hrant Dink, the Turkish-Armenian and history commission, as well as other pre-conditions editor of the Agos. to normalization such as resolution of the NK conflict Dink was assassinated outside his office in Istanbul and an end to Armenia's campaign to gain international on January 19, 2007. Erdogan expressed his profound recognition of the genocide. In their joint news regret: “A bullet has been fired at democracy and freedom conference before driving together to Stadium, of expression.” He called it an “attack on Turkey and neither leader mentioned pre-conditions or obstacles to Turkish unity and stability,” adding that justice would normalization. Turkish officials would, however, use be served to “dark hands” behind the incident.11 There the dialogue to deter international recognition efforts, was also a popular outpouring of support for Dink. Up to warning that recognition would undermine the diplomatic 100,000 people gathered in an eight-kilometer procession process underway with Armenia. to the Armenian Church in Kumkapi where his funeral service was held. Tens of thousands of Turks rallied with U.S. Approach placards reading, “We are all Armenians. We are all Hrant On February 1, 2007, Senate Resolution (S Res.) 65 Dink.” Turks gathered in Taksim Square on April 24, condemned Dink's assassination, urged Turkey to repeal 2007. Launched on December 15, 2008, the “Apology Article 301, and called on Ankara “to act in the interest Movement” organized 35,000 signatures on a petition of regional security and prosperity and reestablish full stating: “My conscience does not accept the insensitivity diplomatic, political and economic relations with the showed to and the denial of the Great Catastrophe that .” H Res. 252 was introduced on the Ottoman Armenians were subjected to in 1915,” and March 17, 2007. It called on the President “to accurately offering an apology for their suffering.12 characterize the systematic and deliberate annihilation There was a nationalist backlash in response to of 1,500,000 Armenians as genocide and to recall the popular sympathy for Dink. Trabzon soccer fans in proud history of United States intervention in opposition Kamil Ocak Stadium waved banners that read, “We are to the Armenian Genocide.” Co-sponsored by more than all Turks; we are all Mustafa Kemal.”13 Shots were fired 140 members of the U.S. House of Representatives,

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the House International Affairs Committee, chaired by timing of the announcement, on the eve of Remembrance Congressman Tom Lantos (D-CA), moved H. Res. 106 Day. Turks also criticized the Protocols for selling out the by a vote of 27 to 21 on October 10, 2007. Speaker Nancy interests of Azerbaijan. Pelosi was determined to bring the resolution to the floor before Congress adjourned on November 22. Azerbaijan's Reaction During the 2008 presidential campaign, Barack According to Mehmet Ali Birand, “Babacan briefed Obama stated, “theArmenian genocide is not an allegation, [Azerbaijan's President Ilham] Aliyev at least four times, a personal opinion, or a point of view, but rather a widely but Baku did not take it seriously until the last minute.”19 documented fact supported by an overwhelming body U.S. officials also tried to keep Baku informed. Though of historical evidence.”15 Obama called for the United Deputy Assistant Secretary Matt Bryza visited Baku on States to recognize the genocide on twenty-one separate April 15, 2009, to neutralize opposition, Baku denounced occasions. Joseph R. Biden and Hillary Clinton were also the Protocols and condemned Turkey for betraying their on record as repeatedly calling for genocide recognition Turkic brethren. According to Fried, “the Azeris had a when they served in the U.S. Senate. fit.”20 Presidential candidates typically call for genocide When Ahmet Davutoglu replaced Babacan as foreign recognition, but then change course upon assuming office. minister on May 1, 2009, he wanted to negotiate an While Obama was under strong pressure from Armenian- entirely new agreement. Erdogan travelled to Azerbaijan Americans to honor his campaign pledge, he was also on May 12-13, 2009. In Baku he dismissed reports of de- under pressure from Ankara not to mention the “g-word.” linkage as “slander” and “disinformation.” He told the At a press conference with Gul in Ankara on April 6, press, “the Turkey-Armenia border has been closed due 2009, Obama said that visiting Turkey just seventy-seven to Nagorno-Karabakh's occupation and will not be solved days after being inaugurated was a “statement about the until it is liberated.”21 Erdogan told the Azerbaijan Grand importance of Turkey, not just to the United States, but to National Assembly on May 13: “The current situation in the world.” Obama did not use the term “genocide.” His Nagorno-Karabakh cannot be accepted and will never written statement indicated, “I have consistently stated be accepted. I want to repeat once more that until the my own view of what occurred in 1915, and my view occupation ends, the border gates [with Armenia] will of that history has not changed. My interest remains the remain closed.”22 achievement of a full, frank and just acknowledgement Erdogan's call for a complete withdrawal raised of the facts.”16 the bar higher than the Minsk Group's negotiating position, which was focused on a phased withdrawal Initials of Armenian forces from areas around NK rather than Delinking the normalization of relations between from all territories in Azerbaijan. Presented at the OSCE Turkey and Armenia from resolution of the NK conflict ministerial conference in November 2007 and updated was a procedural breakthrough. According to U.S. in 2009, the Madrid principles of the Minsk Group Ambassador to Turkey James F. Jeffrey, Obama did envisioned a settlement based on the return of territories not discuss de-linkage with Gul or Erdogan during surrounding NK to Azerbaijan, a corridor between NK his April trip. Gul and Erdogan were also silent on and Armenia, self-government guarantees, and a legally delinkage. Turkish officials thought it was in the interest binding referendum to determine NK's final status. of the normalization process to allow “constructive Turkish officials were surprised by Erdogan's ambiguity.”17 The Protocols were initialed on April 2, demand for a complete withdrawal of Armenian forces and announced by Babacan and Nalbandian in a joint from all “occupied territories.” Not only was Erdogan statement on April 22. very emotional during his press conference on May 12, Obama's April 24 statement referred to “Meds but his speech the following day included comments Yeghern,” which, literally translated, means “great that were “not in notes sent by the MFA to the Prime calamity.” Meds Yeghern is used by Armenians as an Minister's Office.” On this and other important issues, a interchangeable term for the genocide. Some Armenians small circle of advisers around the prime minister “made were upset because the statement misspelled the Armenian recommendations independent of the MFA.”23 term. Turkey's MFA criticized Obama for failing to “We expected the Protocols would lead to reactivation honor Turks killed by Armenians during the period. Gul of the Minsk Group,” said Apakan.24 An anonymous reminded Obama, “everyone's pain must be felt.”18 MFA official indicated that there was “a gentlemen's The text of the Protocols was not made public until agreement” to that effect. Sure enough, diplomatic August 31, 2009. Lack of transparency fueled speculation activity on NK intensified. Sarkisian and Aliyev met for and criticism from within Armenia's governing coalition, two hours on the sidelines of an EU Summit in Prague on as well as opposition parties. Armenians also criticized the May 7, and held bilateral meetings with Gul. Erdogan

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went to Moscow after Azerbaijan in order to galvanize they would avoid open discussion of sensitivities. Neither the Minsk Group. Sarkisian and Aliyev met again in Davutoglu nor Nalbandian would mention the genocide St. Petersburg on June 4. In the twelve-month period or refer to NK. beginning in June 2008, Sarkisian and Aliyev met seven Thirty minutes before the signing ceremony, which times. Ever optimistic, Bryza welcomed “significant was scheduled for 5:00 pm, texts were exchanged through progress.”25 Ankara's approach eliminated any sense of the U.S. delegation. Nalbandian was aghast, and refused urgency, relieving Baku of pressure to make a deal. Lack to leave his room at the Dolder Hotel. The Swiss came of progress on NK also relieved Ankara of pressure to up with a compromise: neither side would make remarks. push for ratification, which would distract the AKP from Clinton and Nalbandian drove in the same car to the battles on the domestic front. signing ceremony, which was held at 8:00 pm. Clinton, Beginning in 2007, the government launched an Solana, Calmy-Rey, Lavrov, and Kouchner stood behind investigation of Ergenekon, a clandestine ultranationalist Nalbandian and Davutoglu as witnesses, and as a signal network of uniformed and retired military, secular of the international community's support. Only Calmy- dissidents, journalists, and academics. Taraf broke a Rey made brief remarks. series of stories about extraordinary measures by former Winston Churchill spoke in that same auditorium military officers and members of the deep state intended on September 19, 1946, saying: “The first step in the to justify a coup and overthrow the AKP government. The recreation of the European family must be a partnership military was convinced that Erdogan had a hidden agenda between and Germany.” The historic address to subvert the country's secular system. The AKP's concluded, “Let Europe rise.”28 The symbolism was electoral victory in elections on July 22, 2007, further trenchant. If France and Germany could overcome their marginalized the military. So did direct presidential enmity and Europe could bind together in common elections that Gul won on August 28, 2007, making purpose, then Turkey and Armenia could also overcome him Turkey's first openly devout Muslim president. their differences. A referendum on constitutional reform was held on September 12, 2010, and approved by nearly 58 percent The Protocols of voters. The referendum was a critical victory, boosting Through the Protocols and the annex, Turkey and the AKP's prospects of winning a third term and fulfilling Armenia agreed to establish diplomatic relations and its pledge to do away with the 1982 constitution, which open the common border within two months after the was drafted by the military junta. entry into force of the Protocol on the Development of Relations. In Article 3 and the annex, which Ambuhl calls Signing Ceremony “diplomatic engineering,” the text specifically addressed Fried was replaced as Assistant Secretary by Philip the matter of who would do what, and when. It indicated H. Gordon. “[Normalization] should proceed within a that the signatories: reasonable time frame,” said Gordon. “It means that the process can't be infinite. It can't go on forever.”26 On June Agree on the establishment of an 24, 2009, Switzerland drafted a press release announcing intergovernmental bilateral commission which the text. Both sides took exception to elements of the shall comprise separate sub-commissions for draft, which included only three paragraphs. The release the prompt implementation of the commitments was not issued until August 31. On September 1, Calmy- mentioned in operational paragraph 2 above in Rey joined the Turkish and Armenian foreign ministers this Protocol. To prepare the working modalities when they announced they would start “internal political of the intergovernmental commission and its consultations [to] be completed within six weeks following sub-commissions, a working group headed by which the Protocols will be signed and submitted to the the two Ministers of Foreign Affairs shall be respective Parliaments for ratification. Both sides will created 2 months after the day following the make their best efforts for the timely progression of the entry into force of this Protocol. Within 3 months ratification in line with their constitutional and legal after the entry into force of this Protocol, these procedures.”27 modalities shall be approved at ministerial level. Negotiating too hard over the press release was The intergovernmental commission shall meet a harbinger of disagreements to come. The signing for the first time immediately after the adoption ceremony was scheduled for the University of Zurich of the said modalities. The sub-commissions on October 10, 2009. Davutoglu and Nalbandian each shall start their work at the latest 1 month planned remarks to commemorate the “historic moment thereafter and they shall work continuously until in Turkish-Armenian bilateral relations.” Turkish and the completion of their mandates. Armenian negotiators had reached an understanding:

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The parties also agreed to ratify the Protocols in their and within the timeframe.” Two days later, he sent the parliaments within a “reasonable time frame.” Protocols to Parliament.33 While the Protocols described the commitments of Erdogan viewed the Constitutional Court's both parties, they did not take into account their different involvement as an act of bad faith. On March 16, he hopes and expectations. According to Apakan, reality roiled tensions by threatening to expel Armenians has two shores.”29 Yerevan viewed the Protocols as a working illegally in Turkey. “We are turning a blind way to end the embargo by Turkey and boost Armenia's eye to 100,000 Armenians living [illegally in Turkey],” economy. Yerevan expected that the Protocols would he said. “Tomorrow I may tell these 100,000 to go back give a new dynamic and sense of urgency to the Minsk to their country.”34 To Armenians, his threat evoked Group. The historical commission would buttress the memories of death marches in 1915. Nalbandian reacted, genocide's validity, advancing recognition. The Protocols “this statement was a shock for everyone and not only also represented a legacy opportunity for Sarkisian, who in Armenia. The Armenian Genocide started with exactly saw the diplomatic breakthrough as a way of securing his such statements in 1914-1915.”35 Erdogan further place in history. exacerbated tensions by calling the Statue of Humanity, Ankara viewed the Protocols as a way of preempting a symbol of Turkish-Armenian reconciliation, “a freak” international attempts at genocide recognition, and ordering its dismantling.36 undermining allegations of genocide. It anticipated that the Protocols would catalyze negotiations returning Suspension territories to Azerbaijan, ending the NK conflict, and Azerbaijan was not invited to the Nuclear Security laying to rest notions of a “Greater Armenia.” In addition, Summit in Washington on April 12-13, 2010. Erdogan rapprochement with Armenia would put Turkey in good denounced the genocide resolution during his speech at stead with the EU. the summit. “We are against a one-sided interpretation Azerbaijan's view was unambiguous. Aliyev of history,” Erdogan said. “History cannot be written condemned the Protocols, threatening to stop natural gas in a parliament or judged by a parliament.”37 Erdogan sales to Turkey and to seek alternate routes via Russia, and Sarkisian met for about eighty minutes. However, Iran, or Georgia. Four days after signing the Protocols, Sarkisian rejected an open-ended process that lead Azerbaijan agreed to sell Russia at least 500 million “nowhere.” Neither Sarkisian nor Erdogan spoke to the cubic meters of gas annually, starting in 2010.30 In a press after the meeting. blow to Europe's goal of diversifying energy sources, Obama held bilateral discussions with both leaders.38 Aliyev announced support for Russia's South Stream Sarkisian indicated, “we are ready to have normal relations energy project and, in a setback to Nabucco, postponed with all our neighbors but we will not tolerate someone the development of the Shah-Deniz gas field until 2017.31 dictating conditions.”39 Erdogan implied flexibility if Azerbaijan also jacked up the price of gas it sold to Armenia returned “at least two of the occupied Azeri Turkey. raions (i.e., districts) initially.”40 The districts he proposed were the most strategically important. The Constitutional Court Sarkisian decided that Armenia could not continue On November 17, 2009, Sarkissian's government the normalization process past April 24, with domestic asked the Constitutional Court to determine if the pressure intensifying and opposition parties calling on the Protocols conformed to Armenia's constitution and its government to withdraw its signature. “The ball cannot Declaration of Independence that stated: “The Republic remain in one court indefinitely,” said Sarkisian. “Every of Armenia stands in support of the task of achieving football game has time limits.”41 In his national address international recognition of the 1915 Genocide in on April 22, Sarkisian suspended but did not withdraw Ottoman Turkey and Western Armenia.” Ankara decried Yerevan's signature. the move, claiming it was an impediment to ratification. Clinton praised Sarkisian's decision as “very It is, however, obligatory in Armenia to get approval statesmanlike and very impressive.”42 Her visit to from the Constitutional Court before proceeding with Yerevan on July 4, 2010, was seen as a signal of support parliamentary ratification of bilateral agreements. for Sarkisian. According to Clinton, “And now, as they On January 12, 2010, the Constitutional Court upheld say in sports, the ball is in the other court.”43 the Protocols' conformity with the constitution and Armenia's Declaration of Independence. The Court also ruled that the Protocols placed no obligation on Armenia Accountability regarding the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict.”32 Sarkisian A historic opportunity was missed by failing to ratify announced on February 10, “I guarantee a positive vote in the Protocols. Ankara held the false hope that signing the parliament if the Turkish side votes without preconditions Protocols would fast-track a deal on NK. It also hoped

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that Armenians would stop their campaign for genocide between Turkey and Armenia are not going away. recognition. Treaties embody commitments, however, Leading up to the anniversary, political and moral not wishful thinking. pressures on Turkey are intensifying. There is currently no Turkish officials did not gauge the intensity of Baku's intergovernmental contact. Armenian officials insist there obstructionism to normalization of Turkey-Armenia is nothing to discuss until Turkey acts on the Protocols. relations, or progress on NK. They underestimated Representing the stronger power, Erdogan could Aliyev's willingness to manipulate energy costs and issue an executive order to open the border and normalize supplies, and failed to gauge the impact of the Azerbaijani travel and trade as a step toward diplomatic relations. lobby in Turkey. Bolder yet, he could submit the Protocols for ratification Senior officials in Turkey's MFA deserve by the TGNA with his personal endorsement. Prosecution commendation for their professionalism throughout or threats of prosecution in Turkey of anyone who the negotiations. While Gul displayed vision and acknowledges the Armenian genocide should cease, and statesmanship, Erdogan played a different role. Fried Article 301 should be abolished. Turks should be able to maintains, “Turkish society was ready, but Erdogan discuss their history freely. These steps would be taken didn't lead. Turkey is the greater power and should have “in the name of humanity.” Magnanimity is in accordance shown greater wisdom.”44 with Islamic principles which enshrine the sanctity of Yerevan also bears responsibility. Yerevan should life. At this stage of his life, Erdogan should be thinking not have allowed the Protocols to be announced on the about his legacy and not about scoring political points. eve of Genocide Remembrance Day. The timing of the Some significant steps are possible short of announcement galvanized opposition among a broad ratification. The Kars-Gyumri gate could be opened cross section of Armenian society, which believed allowing train traffic. Turkey has a state-of-the-art fiber that the Protocols would be manipulated by Ankara optic cable that terminates in Kars, and Armenia needs to undermine genocide recognition. As a result, more access to a fiber optic cable to address growing demand for moderate opposition parties were radicalized. Internet and related services. Armenia has an electricity Both sides failed to adopt a public diplomacy surplus that could be exported to help Turkey power its strategy, preparing public opinion for compromise. economic development. Textiles and piece goods could Waiting so long to disclose the text was a mistake. Lack of be manufactured in a Qualifying Industrial Zone, an transparency fueled speculation. To neutralize opposition industrial park and a free-trade zone linked to a free-trade in Turkey, the Armenian government could have made agreement with the United States for goods benefitting a clear and unambiguous statement that it recognized both Turkish and Armenian concerns. Both people-to- the Turkish-Armenian border. Sarkisian's unwillingness people and commercial contact can be expanded through to underscore Armenia's respect for Turkey's territorial new charter flights between the eastern Turkish city of integrity, especially after the Constitutional Court's Van and Yerevan. Turkish Airlines could open an office finding, fueled opposition by among Turkish nationalists in Yerevan to facilitate arrangements. Two hundred and security establishment. Armenian trucks travel annually through Turkey via The United States is also at fault. The Obama Georgia to other countries. Rather than treat Turkey as a administration missed an opportunity to reaffirm de- transit country, the procedure could be amended to allow linkage of the Protocols with NK when Obama visited those trucks to off-load in Turkey. Likewise, Turkish Turkey in April 2009. There was a failure to communicate trucks should be allowed to deliver goods to customers between the U.S. embassies in Ankara and Yerevan. in Armenia. Turkish products should be allowed to As late as the Nuclear Security Summit, U.S. officials have Armenia as their official destination in the export maintained they had a “plan B.”45 No fallback plan was registry, and Armenian products should be treated apparent other than convincing Sarkisian to suspend rather similarly. Linkages should also be established between than withdraw his signature. While Clinton invested her local chambers of commerce and mayors with the goal of personal prestige in Zurich, the Obama administration establishing sister-city relationships and fostering trade bureaucratized the follow-up. A “Special Envoy for and investment. Ratification of the Turkey-Armenia Protocols” could Symbols and monuments can be a catalyst for have played a useful role in maintaining momentum, reconciliation. The Ani Bridge across the Akhurian River working the system in Washington, and keeping the is historically significant for connecting the southern parties focused on next steps rather than pre-conditions. Caucasus to the Anatolian plains, and as a symbol of Armenian cultural presence in modern-day Turkey. It The Way Forward should be restored and opened, at least for tourism. A The one-hundredth anniversary of the Armenian joint committee of Turkish and Armenian restoration genocide will be marked in 2015. Outstanding issues experts could identify monuments and cultural sites for

23 THE HARRIMAN REVIEW

rehabilitation and a research committee of historians news/en/rfe/20070409/200704091/. could identify, assess, and explore arrangements for 6. Letter from Recep Tayyip Erdogan to Robert accessing all archives. Kocharian, April 10, 2005. Regarding inter-governmental contact, NATO's 7. Michael Ambuhl, in discussion with the author, Euro-Atlantic Disaster Response Coordination Center November 3, 2011. is a well-placed platform for expanding cross-border 8. Michael Ambuhl, in discussion with the author, exercises enhancing emergency preparedness, with October 18, 2011. the ancillary benefit of building confidence. Turkish- 9. Ibid. Armenian relations should be seen in a broader European 10. Daniel P. Fried, in discussion with the author, context. Integration of Turkey and Armenia into the EU September 28, 2011. is ultimately the best structure for normalizing relations 11. Ibid. between Ankara and Yerevan. 12. “Ozur Diliyorum,” http://www.ozurdiliyoruz. The ICTJ-facilitated study on the applicability of com/foreign.aspx. the Genocide Convention represents a win-win that both 13. “Nationalist sentiment dominates soccer sides can use to enhance their positions. The legal finding pitch,” Hurriyet Daily News and Economic Review, should be repositioned as a tool for future dialogue and as January 30, 2007, accessed January 10, 2012, a roadmap for reconciliation. http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/default.aspx? The terms “rapprochement” and “reconciliation” are pageid=438&n=nationalist-sentiment-dominates-soccer- often used interchangeably, but they have very different pitch-2007-01-30. meanings. Signing of the Protocols was an event that 14. Anonymous Turkish MFA Official, in discussion occurred on a specific date, while reconciliation is a with the author, September 6, 2011. process that occurs over time. While rapprochement is 15. “Obama reaches out to the Muslim world,” BBC stalled for now, interaction continues. As a safety net, civil News, April 6, 2009, accessed January 10, 2012, http:// society is playing a critical role that deserves political and news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/8082676.stm. financial support. Reconciliation is like riding a bicycle. 16. “Turkey criticizes Obama comments,” BBC You fall off the moment you stop pedaling. News, April 25, 2009, accessed January 10, 2012, http:// news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/8018327.stm. 17. James R. Jeffrey, in discussion with author, February 2, 2009. NOTES 18. “Turkey Criticizes Obama Comments.” 1. Marcel Cornis-Pope and John Neubauer, 19. Mehmet Ali Birand, in discussion with author, History of the Literary Cultures of East-Central Europe September 24, 2011. (Amsterdam: John Benjamins Publishing Company, 20. Fried, in discussion with author. 2004), p. 21. 21. Emil Danielyan, “Armenia Chides Turkey's 2. Founding Turkish members of TARC were former Erdogan over Karabakh Linkage,” Radio Free Europe/ Foreign Minister ilter Turkmen, former Undersecretary of Radio Liberty, May 14, 2009, accessed January 10, 2012, Foreign Affairs Ozdem Sanberk, former Undersecretary http://www.armenialiberty.org/content/article/1731879. of Foreign Affairs Gunduz Aktan, former Lieutenant html. General §adi Erguven?, and the founding director of 22. Erdogan Pledges Continued Support for the Istanbul Policy Center at Sabanci University, Ustun Azerbaijan,” Asbarez.com, May 13, 2009. Erguder. Founding Armenian members were former 23. Anonymous Turkish MFA official, in discussion Foreign Minister Alexander Arzoumanian, Ambassador with author. David Hovhanissyan, former Foreign Policy Adviser to 24. Ertugrul Apakan, in discussion with author, Russian President Boris Yeltsin Andranik Mingranyan, November 25, 2011. and former Chairman of the Armenian-American 25. “Armenia, Azerbaijan Satisfied with Fresh Assembly Van Z. Krikorian. David L. Phillips was Summit,” Armnews, June 4, 2009, accessed January 10, TARC's Chairman. 2012, http://www.rferl.org/content/Armenia_Azerbaijan_ 3. The finding did not preclude the use of other legal Satisfied_With_Fresh_Summit/1747084.html. instruments to seek compensation. 26. Emil Danielyan,“U.S. Envoy Upbeat on 4. International Center for Transitional Justice, Turkey-Armenia Normalization,” Radio Free Europe/ February 2003. Radio Liberty, June 0, 2009, accessed January 10, 2012, 5. Emil Danielyan, “Nobel laureates urge Turkish- http://www.rferl.org/content/US_Envoy_Upbeat_On_ Armenian dialogue,” Armtown.com, April 9, 2007, TurkeyArmenia_Relations/1751225.html. accessed December 24, 2011, http://www.armtown.com/ 27. Emil Danielyan, “Armenia, Turkey Move Closer

24 THE HARRIMAN REVIEW to Historic Deal.” 28. www.europa-web.de. 29. Apakan, in discussion with author. 30. “Aliyev Says Trusts Turkey On Karabakh Linkage,” Azatutyan.am, January 28, 2010, accessed January 10, 2012, http://www.azatutyun.am/content/ article/1942521.html. 31. www.myaz.ru, December 19, 2009. 32. Constitutional Court of Armenia, Ruling on Protocols, January 12, 2010, Paragraph 5. 33. Sinan Ogan, “Armenia Tells Diaspora: We Didn't Sell the Country,” Today's Zaman, February 11, 2010, accessed January 10, 2012, http://www.historyoftruth. com/news/latest/5485-armenia-tells-diaspora-we-didnt- sell-the-country. 34. “Turkey threatens to expel 100,000 Armenians,” BBC News, March 17, 2010, accessed January 10, 2012, http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/8572934.stm. 35. Interview with Edward Nalbandian, News.am, June 15, 2010. 36. “Turkey-Armenia Friendship Symbol Being Demolished,” BBC News, April 26, 2011, accessed January 10, 2012, http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/mobile/ world-europe-13199787. 37. “Obama Urges Turkey, Armenia to Implement Normalization Deal,” Hurriyet Daily News and Economic Review, April 13, 2010, accessed January 10, 2012, http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/default. aspx?pageid=438&n=obama-urges-turkey-armenia-to- implement-normalization-deal-2010-04-13. 38. www.whitehouse.gov, April 14, 2010. 39. “Obama Urges Armenia, Turkey To Normalize Ties.” 40. Sabah, April 15, 2010. 41. “Turkish-Armenian Talks ‘May Go Nowhere,'” Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, April 10, 2009, accessed January 10, 2012, http://asbarez.com/49850/ turkish-armenian-talks-may-go-nowhere-says- sarkisian/. 42. “Armenian FM quotes Hillary Clinton,” News. am, July 22, 2010, accessed January 10, 2012, http:// news.am/eng/news/25766.html. 43. “Armenian FM quotes Hillary Clinton.” 44. Fried, in discussion with author. 45. Marie Yovanovitch, in discussion with author, April 13, 2011.

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