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Japan's Preventive Strategy: Secure the World—The National Defense Program Guidelines in and After FY 2010

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Japan's Preventive Strategy: Secure the World—The National Defense Program Guidelines in and After FY 2010 University of Denver Digital Commons @ DU Electronic Theses and Dissertations Graduate Studies 1-1-2009 Japan's Preventive Strategy: Secure the World—the National Defense Program Guidelines in and After FY 2010 Tadashi Watanabe University of Denver Follow this and additional works at: https://digitalcommons.du.edu/etd Part of the International and Intercultural Communication Commons, and the Public Affairs, Public Policy and Public Administration Commons Recommended Citation Watanabe, Tadashi, "Japan's Preventive Strategy: Secure the World—the National Defense Program Guidelines in and After FY 2010" (2009). Electronic Theses and Dissertations. 690. https://digitalcommons.du.edu/etd/690 This Thesis is brought to you for free and open access by the Graduate Studies at Digital Commons @ DU. It has been accepted for inclusion in Electronic Theses and Dissertations by an authorized administrator of Digital Commons @ DU. For more information, please contact [email protected],[email protected]. Japan’s Preventive Strategy: Secure the World – The National Defense Program Guidelines in and after FY 2010 – A Thesis Presented to the Faculty of Arts and Humanities University of Denver In Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree Master of Arts in International Security by Tadashi Watanabe June 2009 Advisors: Paul R. Viotti, Ph.D. Anthony Hayter, Ph.D. Col. Thomas A. Drohan, Ph.D. i ©Copyright by Tadashi Watanabe 2009 All Right Reserved ii Author: Tadashi Watanabe Title: Japan’s Preventive Strategy: Secure the World – The National Defense Program Guidelines in and after FY 2010 – Advisors: Paul R. Viotti, Ph.D. Anthony Hayter, Ph.D. Col. Thomas A. Drohan, Ph.D. Degree Date: June 2009 ABSTRACT The Japanese government is now reviewing the National Defense Program Guideline in and after FY 2005 (NDPG 04), and this review will be completed by the end of this year. Even though NDPG 04 provides Japan’s security and defense policy vision to FY 2014, the government nevertheless has decided to change it completely. The purpose of this thesis is to know the reason why the Japanese government has decided to change NDPG 04 completely, the likely contents of NDPG 09, and NDPG 09’s effect on the US-Japan alliance. The globalizing international society and threats have been increasingly diversified and multi-polarized since the end of the Cold War, and Japan cannot deal with them alone. The fiscal crisis and scandals within the ministry of defense (MOD) and the Japan Self Defense Force (JSDF) have led to a renewed discussion of the security of Japan and the US-Japan security arrangement, particularly given the present five-year review of NDPG 04 now underway. The Japanese political environment on national security changed dramatically during the Koizumi administration (2001-06), which allowed for calm discussion of Japan’s security policy not just among Japan’s leaders, but also among the general population. More recently, governmental policymakers have recognized that it is impossible for Japan to deal with these international and domestic security issues under NDPG 04 ii and with the present security and defense system. Therefore they have decided to strengthen Japan’s security system in the forthcoming NDPG 09 while still remaining compliant with Article 9 of the Japan’s Constitution. Whichever party or party coalition wins the next general election later this year, the new leadership likely will see Japan’s cooperation not only with the United States, but also with other countries both bilaterally and multilaterally in international organizations as essential to preventing diversified threats from reaching Japan. In this regard, a Sun Tzu style preventive strategy appears to be the best way to secure Japan and contribute to global security. This thesis represents the views of its author, not those of the Japan Maritime Self Defense Force to which its author belongs, or any other agency of the Japanese government. iii The highest excellence is to subdue the enemy’s army without fighting at all. – Sun Tzu iv ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS First, I would like to thank Dr. Paul Viotti as a supervisor/chair of my thesis for his kind guidance of a foreign student. Second, I owe a special debt to my outside chair, Dr. Anthony Hayter for improving my work at my oral defense. I have acquired a debt of gratitude to Col Thomas A. Drohan as a reader of my thesis, whose patience, intellectual and personal support was of great value. In addition, the grammatical support of Ms. Joyce Sinclair and Ms. Kathy Frey were really helpful and inevitable for an ESL Japanese. v Contents TABLES ........................................................................................................................ix ABBREVIATIONS.........................................................................................................x Introduction: Purpose of This Thesis ...............................................................................1 Chapter 1: Characteristics of NDPG ................................................................................3 History of Japan’s Security/Defense and Relationship with the US...............................3 Constitution of Japan................................................................................................3 Establishment of the National Police Reserve ...........................................................4 The Treaty of San Francisco and Rearmament: not Military Force but Self Defense Force ........................................................................................................................6 Defense Build-up Plans from 1957 to 1976 and related issues...................................8 National Defense Program Outline and Related Issues............................................11 National Defense Program Outline in and after FY 1996 and Related Issues...........15 National Defense Program Guidelines in and after FY 2005 and Related Issues......18 National Defense Program Guidelines in and after FY 2005.......................................18 Composition and Contents......................................................................................19 Relationship with the Mid-Term Defense Program .................................................23 Characteristics and Comparison with US strategies/QDR .......................................24 Legal Basis of Japan’s Security and Defense Policy...................................................30 Constitution and the Governmental View on its Article 9 .......................................30 SDF Act and Related Regulations...........................................................................32 Basic Policy for National Defense and Other Basic Principles ................................33 MOD’s Annual White Paper: Defense of Japan ......................................................37 US-Japan Security Arrangements ...........................................................................37 Arms Export Policy ................................................................................................38 Security Council of Japan .......................................................................................40 Chapter 2: The Process of Making NDPG 04.................................................................42 Outline.......................................................................................................................42 New Threats and Diverse Situations...........................................................................42 New Threats and Diverse Situations .......................................................................42 vi Possibility of Full-Scale Invasion ...........................................................................52 International Security Environment and JSDF activities..........................................52 US-Japan Security Arrangement ................................................................................58 Legislation for Responses to Emergency Situations....................................................60 Technological Development and Procurement............................................................61 The Process of Making NDPG 04 ..............................................................................64 Defense Posture Review Board within the JDA ......................................................64 Cabinet Approval “Preparation of a Ballistic Missile Defense System”...................65 Liberal Democratic Party’s Proposal.......................................................................66 Council on Security and Defense Capabilities.........................................................68 Discussion at Security Council ...............................................................................71 Chapter 3: The Reason to Rewrite the NDPG ................................................................80 The Process of Making NDPG 09 ..............................................................................81 International Situations ..............................................................................................84 Neighboring States .................................................................................................85 Other International Factors .....................................................................................98 The Domestic Situation............................................................................................112 Fiscal Crisis..........................................................................................................112
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