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Japan's Lost Decade: Lessons for Other Economies A Service of Leibniz-Informationszentrum econstor Wirtschaft Leibniz Information Centre Make Your Publications Visible. zbw for Economics Yoshino, Naoyuki; Taghizadeh-Hesary, Farhad Working Paper Japan's lost decade: Lessons for other economies ADBI Working Paper, No. 521 Provided in Cooperation with: Asian Development Bank Institute (ADBI), Tokyo Suggested Citation: Yoshino, Naoyuki; Taghizadeh-Hesary, Farhad (2015) : Japan's lost decade: Lessons for other economies, ADBI Working Paper, No. 521, Asian Development Bank Institute (ADBI), Tokyo This Version is available at: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/115339 Standard-Nutzungsbedingungen: Terms of use: Die Dokumente auf EconStor dürfen zu eigenen wissenschaftlichen Documents in EconStor may be saved and copied for your Zwecken und zum Privatgebrauch gespeichert und kopiert werden. personal and scholarly purposes. Sie dürfen die Dokumente nicht für öffentliche oder kommerzielle You are not to copy documents for public or commercial Zwecke vervielfältigen, öffentlich ausstellen, öffentlich zugänglich purposes, to exhibit the documents publicly, to make them machen, vertreiben oder anderweitig nutzen. publicly available on the internet, or to distribute or otherwise use the documents in public. Sofern die Verfasser die Dokumente unter Open-Content-Lizenzen (insbesondere CC-Lizenzen) zur Verfügung gestellt haben sollten, If the documents have been made available under an Open gelten abweichend von diesen Nutzungsbedingungen die in der dort Content Licence (especially Creative Commons Licences), you genannten Lizenz gewährten Nutzungsrechte. may exercise further usage rights as specified in the indicated licence. www.econstor.eu ADBI Working Paper Series Japan’s Lost Decade: Lessons for Other Economies Naoyuki Yoshino and Farhad Taghizadeh-Hesary No. 521 April 2015 Asian Development Bank Institute Naoyuki Yoshino is Dean and CEO of the Asian Development Bank Institute. Farhad Taghizadeh-Hesary is Assistant Professor of Economics at Keio University, Tokyo. He is also a visiting scholar at the Credit Risk Database (CRD) Association of Japan and Research Assistant to the Dean of ADBI. The views expressed in this paper are the views of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of ADBI, ADB, its Board of Directors, or the governments they represent. ADBI does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this paper and accepts no responsibility for any consequences of their use. Terminology used may not necessarily be consistent with ADB official terms. Working papers are subject to formal revision and correction before they are finalized and considered published. The Working Paper series is a continuation of the formerly named Discussion Paper series; the numbering of the papers continued without interruption or change. ADBI’s working papers reflect initial ideas on a topic and are posted online for discussion. ADBI encourages readers to post their comments on the main page for each working paper (given in the citation below). Some working papers may develop into other forms of publication. Suggested citation: Yoshino, Y., and F. Taghizadeh-Hesary. 2015. Japan’s Lost Decade: Lessons for Other Economies. ADBI Working Paper 521. Tokyo: Asian Development Bank Institute. Available: http://www.adbi.org/working-paper/2015/04/08/6590.japan.lost.decade.economies/ Please contact the authors for information about this paper. Email: [email protected]; [email protected] Asian Development Bank Institute Kasumigaseki Building 8F 3-2-5 Kasumigaseki, Chiyoda-ku Tokyo 100-6008, Japan Tel: +81-3-3593-5500 Fax: +81-3-3593-5571 URL: www.adbi.org E-mail: [email protected] © 2015 Asian Development Bank Institute ADBI Working Paper 521 Yoshino and Taghizadeh-Hesary Abstract Japan has suffered from sluggish economic growth and recession since the 1990s, a phenomenon dubbed “Japan’s Lost Decade.” The People’s Republic of China, many countries in the eurozone, and the United States may face similar problems in future and they have been concerned by Japan’s long-term recession. This paper will address why Japan’s economy has stagnated since the bursting of its economic bubble. Our empirical analysis challenges the beliefs of some western economists, such as Paul Krugman, that the Japanese economy is in a liquidity trap. We argue that Japan’s economic stagnation stems from a vertical IS curve rather than a liquidity trap. The impact of fiscal policy has declined drastically, and the Japanese economy faces structural problems rather than a temporary downturn. These structural problems have many causes: an aging demographic (a problem that is frequently overlooked), an over-reliance by local governments on transfers from the central government, and Basel capital requirements that have made Japanese banks reluctant to lend money to startup businesses and small and medium-sized enterprises. This latter issue has discouraged Japanese innovation and technological progress. The paper will address all these issues empirically and theoretically and will provide some remedies for Japan’s long-lasting recession. JEL Classification: E12, E62 ADBI Working Paper 521 Yoshino and Taghizadeh-Hesary Contents 1. Introduction ................................................................................................................ 3 2. Causes of the Long-Term Recession in Japan .......................................................... 4 2.1 Aging Population ............................................................................................ 4 2.2 Monetary Transfers from Central to Local Governments ................................ 5 2.3 Banking Behavior ........................................................................................... 5 2.4 Excessive Contractionary Monetary Policy ..................................................... 6 2.5 Reduced Effectiveness of Fiscal Policy .......................................................... 7 2.6 High Appreciation of the Yen in the Mid-1990s .............................................. 8 2.7 Banking Crisis of 1998 ................................................................................... 9 2.8 Japan’s Ineffective Monetary Policy ............................................................... 9 3. Comparison of the Economic Collapse in Japan and Greece .................................. 10 4. Empirical Analysis.................................................................................................... 12 4.1 Empirical Model ........................................................................................... 12 4.2 Unit Root Test .............................................................................................. 12 4.3 Empirical Results ......................................................................................... 13 5. Remedies for Stimulating Growth in Japan .............................................................. 15 5.1 Reforms to Combat the Issues of an Aging Population ................................ 15 5.2 Reduction of Transfers from Central to Local Governments ......................... 15 5.3 Reform of the Agriculture Sector .................................................................. 15 5.4 Diversification of Households’ Asset Allocation ............................................ 17 5.5 Switching Asset Allocation Pension Funds and Insurance Companies from Pay-As-You-Go to 401(k)-Style .................................................................... 20 5.6 Review of Asset Management Fees ............................................................. 21 5.7 Use of Home Town Investment Trust Funds to Finance Riskier Businesses 21 5.8 Optimal Mix of Public and Private Funds ...................................................... 23 5.9 Review of Monetary Policy Goals ................................................................. 24 5.10 Diversification of the Energy Basket ............................................................. 25 6. Concluding Remarks ............................................................................................... 26 References ......................................................................................................................... 28 ADBI Working Paper 521 Yoshino and Taghizadeh-Hesary 1. INTRODUCTION In the early 1990s, Japan’s real estate and stock market bubble burst and the economy went into a tailspin. Since then, Japan has suffered sluggish economic growth and recessions (known as “Japan’s Lost Decade”). Japan’s growth rate during this period has been among the lowest of the major developed countries of the world. During 1995–2002, for example, the annualized growth rate of Japan’s real gross domestic product (GDP) averaged only 1.2%. This was lower than the eurozone average of 2.7%, and was less than the other Group of 7 countries: Canada (3.4%), France (2.3%), Germany (1.4%), Italy (1.8%), the United Kingdom (2.7%), and the United States (US) (3.2%). Japan’s performance was also poor in comparison to the 2.7% average of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), and was significantly less than that of the larger OECD countries: Australia (3.8%), the Republic of Korea (5.3%), Mexico (2.6%) the Netherlands (2.9%), and Spain (3.3%) (Horioka 2006). Figure 1 shows the trend of Japan’s real GDP and the real GDP growth rate during 1990–2013. After Japan’s economic bubble burst in the early 1990s Japanese real GDP started to decline sharply. This long-term recession lasted almost 25 years.
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