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Population Structure and Social Change: Labor, Care and Regional Title Population Structure and Social Change : Labor, Care and Regional Disparities in Aging Japan Author(s) Naumov, Andriy Citation Issue Date Text Version ETD URL http://hdl.handle.net/11094/1494 DOI rights Note Osaka University Knowledge Archive : OUKA https://ir.library.osaka-u.ac.jp/ Osaka University Population Structure and Social Change: Labor, Care and Regional Disparities in Aging Japan Osaka University Graduate School of Human Sciences Doctoral Dissertation Naumov Andriy February, 2011 Acknowledgements I would like to express my gratitude to my supervising professor, Professor Scott North for his help and patience during the research and writing of this dissertation. I would also like to thank Professor Hiroshi Yamanaka, Kazoe Muta, Professor Toru Kikkawa and other staff members of Osaka University for their helpful lectures, comments and advice. I am indebted to my friends who have lent me their emotional support throughout the duration of my studies at Osaka University. I Abstract Population Structure and Social Change: Labor, Care, and Regional Disparities in Aging Japan (人口構造と社会変動： 高齢化する日本における雇用、介護と地域格差) The history of human kind is a history of economic development based on population growth. For millenniums, economic development was premised on growth and expansion. During the last two centuries, however, all the developed countries have completed the demographic transition and birth rates have fallen almost everywhere in the world. For the first time in history, the population decreased in places not affected by wars, disease or famines. While, the debate on whether population decline is harmful or beneficial for the modern world is ongoing, the negative impact of skewed population structure is more obvious. Unlike European industrialized states, Japan has gone through the demographic transition in a fairly short period of time. This makes all the changes accompanied by shifts in population structure more pronounced than anywhere else. Furthermore, due to very low birth-rates, changes in population structure and population aging have progressed more than anywhere else. Researching how Japanese society is being transformed under the influence of demographic change is the main objective of my dissertation. In this dissertation I analyze various aspects of social change in Japan caused by rapid population aging. Japan pursues a path that no country went through before, which makes Japan‟s experience a valuable source of knowledge for other countries. II I start by analyzing the demographic determinants of population aging (life expectancy vs birth-rates). Both factors contribute to population aging, but decreasing birth-rates also affect the size of the household and are not accompanied by an increase of productive life- span. There is no consensus about what factor contributes more to aging in Japan. Actually, recent studies tend to emphasize the role of longevity. Based on data from National Census, I assess the importance of each factor. I argue that the role of the birth rates is more important not only because of its immediate effect on the size of young population, but also because of its long-term consequences for population structure. The next issue discussed is the influence of the changing population structure on the labor environment and its relation to labor dualism. The impact of demographic change on labor environment is a very important issue, because labor market instability and labor dualism are responsible for increasing social and income inequality in Japan. The relation of selected demographic indicators to labor environment indicators, like the job-offers-to-seekers ratio and irregular workers ratio is analyzed in this section. Contrary to predictions by some researchers, the labor shortages and competition between the enterprises to secure human resources have not become distinctive features of Japan‟s economy. On the other hand, growing labor costs due to the shift towards older ages within corporate population pyramid encouraged the enterprises to look for new means of cost reduction: moving production offshore, limiting employment, employment dualism. In the following section I discuss how the demographic change caused by low birth rates changes the structure of Japan‟s household. Due to the fact that traditionally the family was the main source of support and socializing opportunities in Japan, the impact of the shrinking III household is very significant. Traditional living arrangements are transformed as more and more people chose or are forced to live alone. A similar situation applies to old-age care practices in Japan. The stereotypes of Japanese elderly cared for by their family or elderly in Japan being rich are changing as they lose connection with reality. Traditional safety net of family support tends to weaken especially in places where it is required the most. This gives space for new developments, like emigration of Japanese pensioners overseas. Finally, I analyze how demographic change is contributing to regional disparities. The arguments have been made by some researchers that population decrease will help Japan to resolve its overpopulation problem and allow more living space for the citizens. However, the data presented in this section shows that overpopulation still continues in overpopulated areas as depopulation progresses in the areas with low levels of population density, contributing to further increase in regional inequality in Japan. IV Table of Contents Chapter 1 – Introduction ........................................................................................... 1 1.1 Aging as an Achievement ..................................................................... 1 1.2 Aging as a Challenge - Background .................................................... 4 1.3 Population Aging is a Multidimensional Issue ...................................... 8 1.4 Objectives, Contribution and Structure of the Dissertation ............... 9 Chapter 2 – State of Knowledge: Population Doctrines and Theories ..........16 2.1 Ancient Population Doctrines ..............................................................16 2.2 Classic Population Doctrines ................................................................18 2.3 Contemporary Population Doctrines ..................................................19 2.3.1 Demographic Transition Theory ....................................................... 19 2.3.2 Easterlin Relative Cohort Size Hypothesis ........................................ 21 2.3.3 Demographic Trap Theory and Youth Bulge Theory ..................... 23 2.4 Focus Shift – Population Aging ............................................................24 2.5 Is Aging Really a Problem? ...................................................................28 2.6 Aging and Social Security .................................................................... 30 2.7 Aging, Health, Care ...............................................................................35 2.8 Aging and Inequality .............................................................................38 Chapter 3 – Demographic Determinants of Population Aging: What is more Important – Increasing Life Expectancy or Decreasing Birth Rates? ............ 45 3.1 Definitions and Measurments ..............................................................46 3.2 Demographic Determinants of Aging ................................................48 3.3 Estimation Method of Demographic Factors‟ Importance .............50 3.4 Population Pyramids 1970~2050 ..........................................................52 3.5 Simulation Results: What is More Important - Falling Birth-rates or Increasing Life-Expectancy? ................................................................57 V 3.6 Feminization of Aging ............................................................................65 3.7 Concluding Remarks .............................................................................69 Chapter 4 – Population Structure and Economy: How Is the Labor Market Affected? .................................................................................................................. 72 4.1 Why is Demand for Irregular Employment Increasing? .................... 74 4.2 Is Age Seniority Principle a Pyramid Scheme? .................................79 4.3 Changing Age Structure of the Labor Force .....................................80 4.4 How do Enterprises React to Changing Age-Structure? .................82 4.5 Enterprise Pensions ................................................................................. 86 4.6 What Constitutes Class in Modern Japan? .......................................89 4.7 Will Inequality between Regular and Non-regular Workers Increase? ................................................................................................91 4.8 Concluding Remarks .............................................................................93 Chapter 5 – Growing Old Alone: What does Skewed Population Structure Mean for Families? ................................................................................................... 95 5.1 Changing Household Patterns .............................................................95 5.2 How Aging Affects Socializing Opportunities ................................. 101 5.2.1 Shrinking Family .............................................................................. 102 5.2.2 Shrinking Social Networks ............................................................ 103
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