Part I

Building up the Country and Regions to Actualize an Abundant Life that Extends to Future Generations

~ Creation of a Country Generating Diverse Synergies among Regions ~ Section 1 Demographics of

I Current Conditions in Japan such as

Chapter 1 Chapter 1 Declining

Current Conditions in Japan such as Declining Population In Section 1 of Chapter 1, we will give an overview of future demographic estimates and historical reasons for population shifts, then review the serious condition of issues Japan is facing—such as , decreasing , aging society, the concentration of population and industry in —with a particular look at the severe decrease in population of the rural areas compared to the urban areas. In addition, as we analyze the conditions and trends of birth rate, which is the basic cause of population shift, especially in relation to the employment rate of women, we will compare the urban areas with the rural areas. In Section 2, we will explain the actual effects the progression of population decline has on the rural cities and daily life of the citizens, including daily life-related services, governmental services and local communities, then will raise the issues that continue to rise in the following chapters.

Section 1

1 Japan’s Population Shift and Future Demographics

(1) Estimated Future Demographics (Japan’s Demographics) Japan’s total population was in a continual growing trend throughout the First Baby Boom (1947~1949) after World War II and the Second Baby Boom (1971~1974), but since reaching its peak of 128.08 million in 2008, the total population has been in a steady declining trend. According to “Population Projections for Japan” released by the National Institute of Population and Social Security Research (hereafter “IPSS”), in a midterm estimate with the Note 1 (hereafter simply referred to as “TFR”) projected to shift at 1.35, it is predicted that by 2050 the population will dip below 100 million, and that by 2100, it will decrease to half that, dipping to below 50 million. (Figure 1-1-1). However, if over the next 20 years there was to be a recovery of the fertility replacement level to TFR 2.07, in Fertility Replacement Case 1 (’s Recovery Rate)” the rate of Population Decline would ease up and the total population would stabilize at about 95 million from 2110. Drastic recovery of TFR will not be easy, and working on actualizing the younger generation’s hopes for marriage and childrearing will be vital for promoting TFR Note 2.

Note 1 Total Fertility Rate is the total of the birth rate of women ages 15 to 49 at each age, and is equivalent to the number of children one woman will give birth to if it is assumed that she gives birth at each age during her life time according to the age level birth rate of that year (Figure 1-1-25) Note 2 According to “Overcoming Population Decline and Vitalizing Local Economies: Long-term Vision” (December 2014), based on the premise that marriage and child bearing is always based on the free will of the individual, “If the younger generation’s hope for marriage and child rearing are actualized, it is projected that Japan’s TFR will improve to about 1.8.”

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Figure 1-1-1 Japan’s Population Shift

Total Fertility Rate Around 2110 I [Case 1] (One Thousand People) Approximately Approximately 140,000 109 million people 7.0 95 million people Chapter 1 [Case 2] Approximately Stabilized at 108 million people approximately Total Population 90 million people 120,000 6.0 Population Replacement Case 1: Recovery at the rate of the increase in birth rate (1.66 →2.00) in France during years 1994 to 2006, Current Conditions in Japan such as Declining Population 100,000 reaching 2.07 in 2035 Approximately 95 million people Approximately 91 million people 97.08 million people Population Replacement Case 2: Recovery 80,000 at the rate of the increase in birth rate (1.26 →1.43) in Japan during years 2005 to 2013, reaching 2.07 in 2043

Total Fertility Rate Median Estimate of IPSS 60,000 (National Institute of Population 3.0 Total Fertility Rate (2013) 1.43 and Social Security Research) (Right Axis) 49.59 million people Total Fertility Rate (2.07) 40,000 2.0

Total Fertility Rate [Median Estimate] (1.35)

Population of Youth 20,000 1.0

0 0.0 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100 (year)

(Notes) 1 “Median Estimate” is the median estimate (birth median, death median) described in the “Population Projections for Japan” by the National Institute of Population and Social Security Research.” The others are simple estimates using hypothetical estimates of birth rate by age and the survival rate according to the 2013 life table found in the above-mentioned median estimates. (Adjusted by multiplying the deviation rate of “median estimates” and simple estimates.) The value of each case is a trial calculation by level adjustment of hypothetical estimates of birth rate to match the assumption of each total fertility rate. 2 “Population Replacement Case 1 (France’s Recovery Rate)”: An estimate made based on using the 2013 Male Female Population (total population) by Age (each age) as the base population (TFR 1.43) to hypothesize that each year the birth rate will increase by the average rate (0.03) of the change in France’s birth rate from 1994 to 2006 (increase from 1.66 to 2.00), reaching Population Replacement Rate (2.07) in 2035 and that the same level will be maintained thereafter. “Population Replacement Case 2 (Japan’s Recovery Rate)”: An estimate made based on using the 2013 Male Female Population (total population) by Age (each age) as the base population (TFR 1.43) to hypothesize that each year the birth rate will increase by the average rate (0.02) of the change in Japan’s birth rate from 2005 to 2013 (increase from 1.26 to 1.43), reaching Population Replacement Rate (2.07) in 2043 and that the same level will be maintained thereafter. Source) The actual figures for 1950 to 2013 prepared by MLIT from MIC’s “National Census Report” and “Population Projections”, MHLW’s “Vital Statistics”. Estimated figures developed by MLIT from “Population Projection for Japan” (Estimated in January 2013) by National Institute of Population and Social Security Research, MHLW’s “Vital Statistics”.

(Number of Births and Total Fertility Rate) The TFR became 4.54 in 1947 during the post-war First Baby Boom with approximately 2.7 million births, reaching the highest for both numbers of birth and TFR during the 3 years of that Baby Boom (Figure 1-1-2). Since then, after reaching a record of 2.09 million births in 1973 during the Second Baby Boom, the number of births and the TFR has generally continued to show a decreasing tendency. In 1989, the TFR went below 1.58 recorded in 1966, which was the year of ‘Hinoeuma’ Note 3, and this was called the “1.57 Shock,” due to the major social repercussion incurred. In 2005, the TFR was 1.26, the lowest post-war value, and although there has been a marginal increasing tendency since then, the number of births has been the lowest ever for 3 years straight since 2011, and in 2013 reached a record low of approximately 1.03 million births.

Note 3 “Hinoeuma” is a specific horse Zodiac sign year that comes round once every 60 years. Due to a superstition that girls born in the Hinoeuma year have a stormy temperament, it is thought that many couples avoided having children in this year.

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Figure 1-1-2 Changes in Numbers of Births and TFR

I (Ten thousand people) (Total Fertility Rate) 300 5.0

Chapter 1 ○The First Baby Boom (1947-1949) The Highest Total Fertility Rate 4.54 (1947) Number of Births Total Fertility Rate 4.5 The Highest Number of Births 2,696,638 (1949) 250 Hinoeuma (1966) 4.0 Number of Births 1,360,974 ○The Second Baby Boom (1971-1974) Total Fertility Rate 1.58 Number of Births 2,091,983 (1973) 3.5

Current Conditions in Japan such as Declining Population 200 3.0 1.57 Shock (1989) 150 2.5 Lowest Total Fertility Rate Post-WWII 1.26 (2005) 2.0 100 1.5

1.0 50 0.5

0 0 3 5 7 9 49 51 53 55 57 59 61 63 65 67 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 11 13 1947 2001 (year)

Source) Developed by MLIT from MHLW’s “Vital Statistics”.

Next is a comparison of the changes by Changes in Japan’s “Population Pyramid” Figure 1-1-3 age group for every 50 years, using the so- (1950, 2000, 2050)

called “Population Pyramid” (Figure 1-1- 1950 (Age) 3). 100 ～ 90 In 1950, due to the overwhelmingly Men 80 Women 70 60 large number of youth headed up by the so- 50 40 30 called post-war Baby Boomers generation, 20 10 the graph is “Mount Fuji” shaped. By 2000, 0 1,400 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 although the Baby Boomers and the Junior (One Thousand People) Baby Boomers lead the total population, 2000 (Age) 100 ～ due to the sudden drop in the population of 90 Men 80 those under the age of the 20 to 30 group, Women 70 60 50 the graph is “Bell” shaped. The figure for 40 30 20 2050 based on the median estimates by 10 0 IPSS (National Institute of Population and 1,400 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 (One Thousand People) Social Security Research) is expected to be 2050 “Vase” shaped due to a further decrease in (Age) 100 ～ 90 population. Men 80 Women 70 Although the figure is called a 60 50 40 “Population Pyramid”, in recent years the 30 20 10 shape is no longer a pyramid, and is 0 1,400 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 projected that the youth population— (One Thousand People)

which makes the base of the pyramid—will Source) 1950, 2000: Results of “National Census” by Statistics Bureau, MIC. 2050: Developed by MLIT from the median estimate of “Population Projections for Japan” (Estimated in continue to decline. January 2012) by National Institute of Population and Social Security Research.

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(Population Aging Rate in Comparison with Other Changes in Population Aging Rate of Figure 1-1-4 Countries) Other Countries I Japan has been called an aging society for some time, but (%) how does its population aging rate Note 4 compare with other 45.0 Chapter 1 countries? (Figure 1-1-4) 40.0 Overall, the population aging rates are rising in all the 35.0 countries compared, however, it is evident that Japan’s rate is rising significantly more than the other countries. 30.0 Current Conditions in Japan such as Declining Population By 2010, the population aging rate had already exceeded 25.0 20%, which means that currently in Japan one person in five is elderly. Also, according to the median estimates 20.0 produced by IPSS (National Institute of Population and 15.0 Social Security Research), the Aging Rate is estimated to 10.0 be 25.1% in 2013, meaning one person in four would be elderly in Japan. Further, by 2025 the Aging Rate will 5.0 exceed 30% in Japan overall, and has been projected that 0.0 by 2050 the rate will reach almost 40%. It is expected that 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 (Year) hereafter Japan will progress even further as an elderly Japan Korea society to become a type of society never before experienced U.K. France U.S. by the major countries of the world. Sources) For Japan: “Population Projections for Japan” (Estimated in January 2012) by National Institute of Population and Social Security Research. For countries other than Japan: Developed by MLIT from ” World Population Prospects: The 2012 Revision” (2) Changes in Demographic Shift for Urban and Ru- The of Japan and countries other than Japan in 2010 are actual ral Areas figures and after 2010 figures are median estimates. (Changes in Demographic Shift for the 3 Major Met- ropolitan Areas and Rural Areas)

After World War II, during the 1950- Changes in the Excess In-migrants (In-migrants – Out- Figure 1-1-5 1970’s, a period of rapid economic growth, migrants) of 3 Major Metropolitan Areas and Rural Areas along with the rise in Japan’s overall “- ” indicates excess Out-migrants) Excess In-migrants ( 60 Excess In-migrants (Tokyo Area) peaked Economic Bubble Burst Tokyo Area Lehman Shock in 1962 (390 thousand people) (1991) (2008) The Great East Japan population, a sudden population increase Earthquake (2011) 40 The First The Great Oil Shock The Second Hanshin-Awaji occurred in the 3 major metropolitan areas, (1973) Oil Shock Earthquake Asia (1995) Currency Crisis 2014 (Ten thousand people) 20 Area (1979) due to factors such as the youth from rural (1997) +109 thousand people areas Note 5 moving to the 3 major 0 (Tokyo Area) Area −One thousand people metropolitan areas for further education −20 (Nagoya Area) −12 thousand and employment. Due to this demographic people −40 (Osaka Area) −97 thousand shift, the housing supply could not keep up people −60 (Rural Areas) with the demand in the 3 major metropolitan Excess Out-migrants (Rural Areas) bottomed out Rural Areas in 1961 (65 thousand people) areas, causing large-scale new town −80 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 (Year) developments in the suburbs to thrive. Source) Developed by MLIT based on “Basic Resident Register Demographic Shift Report” by MIC. However, from the mid-1970s, the excess numbers of people moving in to the Nagoya and Osaka areas have almost leveled out (Figure 1-1-5). In the mid-1980s, due to the “Bubble Economy”, the excess numbers of people moving in to the Tokyo area increased, but because the property prices in the city center suddenly escalated, a “donut phenomenon” occurred, where the city center area hollowed out due to people seeking housing in the suburbs.

Note 4 The ratio of elderly (over age 65) population to total population Note 5 The District divisions are as follows: Tokyo Area: , , Tokyo, Kanagawa; Nagoya Area: , Aichi, Mie; Osaka Area: , Osaka, Hyogo, Nara; The 3 Major Metropolitan Areas: Tokyo Area, Nagoya Area, Osaka Area; The Rural Areas: All areas other than the 3 Major Metropolitan Areas

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After the Bubble Economy burst in the first half of the 1990s, the demographic shift to the Tokyo area declined briefly, I but with the drop in property prices and the lowering of interest rates on housing loans, as well as housing prices coming down to an affordable range, the demographic shift to Tokyo started increasing again by the mid-1990s.

Chapter 1 Although there have been temporary decreases in excess move-in numbers due to the effect of the Lehman Shock in 2008 and the Great East Japan Earthquake in 2011, in recent years the demographic shift to Tokyo is showing a rising trend.

Current Conditions in Japan such as Declining Population (Trends in Population Projection for Japan by Regional Block) The demographic trends of the rural areas and the 3 major metropolis areas differ in tendency. In looking at the trends of median estimates of estimated future populations for the 3 major metropolitan areas and the rural areas by age groups (ages 0-14, ages 15-65, ages over 65), it is evident that there will be an overall population decline, as well as population aging for all areas from 2010 to 2060 (Figure 1-1-6). Looking at the actual numbers of elderly people by regional block, the peak for rural areas will be reached in 2030 at 18.6 million, and thereafter there will be a declining trend. However, for the Tokyo area, the elderly population will reach 11.2 in 2040, peak at 11.5 million in 2050, then decrease in 2060, though over 10 million will still be elderly in 2060. As indicated above, it is clear that the timing of the increase in the number of elderly people are different in the 3 metropolitan areas and the rural areas.

Figure 1-1-6 Trends in Population Projection for Japan by Regional Block

(One million people) Tokyo Area (One million people) Nagoya Area 40.0 14.0 35.6 35.7 34.4 35.0 32.3 12.0 11.3 11.2 29.8 10.7 7.3 9.3 10.0 30.0 9.9 27.0 10.0 2.5 9.3 11.2 3.0 3.1 8.5 25.0 11.5 3.4 8.0 3.3 20.0 10.8 6.0 3.1 15.0 23.9 22.3 7.3 21.1 6.7 6.4 18.1 15.7 4.0 5.6 10.0 13.9 4.9 4.5 5.0 2.0 4.4 4.0 1.6 1.4 1.2 0.0 3.4 3.0 2.7 2.3 0.0 1.1 1.0 0.9 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 (Year) 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 (Year)

(One million people) Osaka Area (One million people) Rural Area 20.0 70.0 18.5 18.0 62.6 18.0 16.8 59.2 60.0 4.2 15.4 54.7 16.0 5.2 14.0 15.5 49.5 14.0 5.3 12.4 50.0 18.5 44.0 18.6 38.9 12.0 5.6 5.5 40.0 18.5 10.0 5.0 17.4 8.0 11.8 30.0 38.8 15.7 10.6 9.9 33.7 6.0 20.0 30.4 8.3 7.2 25.9 4.0 6.3 22.2 19.5 10.0 2.0 2.5 2.1 1.7 8.3 0.0 1.5 1.3 1.1 0.0 7.0 5.7 5.1 4.4 3.7 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 (Year) 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 (Year) 0-14 years old 15–64 years old 65 years and older

Source) Up to 2040, the median estimate from “Population Projection for Japan by Regional Block” (Estimated in March 2013) by National Institute of Population and Social Security Research. After 2050, based on preliminary calculations by MLIT.

(Timing Difference in Population Decline for Metropolis and Rural) Population decline, broken down into broad stages, progresses according to the three stages listed below.

Stage One: The population of youth decreases but the elderly population increases (2010 to 2040) Stage Two: The decline of the youth population accelerates while the elderly population remains level or slightly decreases (2040 to 2060) Stage Three: The decline of the youth population further accelerates and the elderly population also decreases (After 2060)

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The Figure below is an indexation of the estimated numbers for each year with 2010 as 100 (Figure 1-1-7). Currently, the metropolitan areas such as central Tokyo and other core cities are in the First Stage where the productive I population and the child population is already decreasing but the elderly population is expected to increase from now to

2040. However, the small cities and the depopulated districts of the rural areas have already entered the Second and Third Chapter 1 Stages where not only the productive and child populations but the elderly population are also just maintaining their numbers or showing a decrease. In other words, not only are the rural areas going to decline, it is predicted that first the rural areas will decline, then the human resource supply from the rural areas to the metropolis areas will dry up so that urban areas will also start to decline, Current Conditions in Japan such as Declining Population until finally all of Japan will go into a decline.

Figure 1-1-7 The Difference in Future Demographic Shift by Areas

Index number with 2010 being 100 Total Population Elderly Population 131 Productive-Age 117 Younger Population 100 84 80 71 68 (Stage Three) 64 Decrease in elderly Population Decline in younger/ 54 working population (Stage One) Increase in elderly Population Decline in younger/working 47 45 population (Stage Two) Maintain/small decrease in elderly 35 Population Decline in young/ working population 31

2010 2040 2060 2090 (Year)

(2010=100) 23 Districts of Tokyo (2010=100) Core City/Exceptional City (2010=100) Municipalities with a population of (2010=100) Depopulated Municipalities less than 50 thousand people 180 180 180 180 160 160 160 160 Ages 0 to 14 153 Ages 14 to 15 140 140 140 140 135 Ages over 65 120 120 120 120 100 100 100 100 Overall Total 100 100 100 102 100 94 85 80 80 80 80 72 80 81 72 72 60 Ages 0 to 14 60 Ages 0 to 14 64 60 Ages 0 to 14 61 60 60 Ages 14 to 15 Ages 14 to 15 Ages 14 to 15 56 50 40 40 40 40 Ages over 65 Ages over 65 Ages over 65 47 20 Overall Total 20 Overall Total 20 Overall Total 20 0 0 0 0 2010 2040 (Year) 2010 2040 (Year) 2010 2040 (Year) 2010 2040 (Year)

(Note) Compiled from “Population Projections for Japan by Regional Block” (Estimated in March 2013) by National Institute of Population and Social Security Research. For the municipalities that are the estimate subject of the above-mentioned population projections for Japan by regional block, the total was calculated for each category (population size in 2010 for municipalities with a population of less than 50 thousand, population size as of April 1, 2014 for core/exceptional cities, population size as of April 5, 2014 for depopulated municipalities) and indexation of the population for 2040 with the population for 2010 being 100. Source) The Conference for Overcoming Population Decline and Vitalizing Local Economy

(Income and Employment Gaps Accompanying Demographic Shift) The cause for the population shift from the rural areas to the 3 metropolitan areas is largely related to income and employment. Looking at the relationship between the excess in-migrants ratio and the disparities in income and employment for the 3 major metropolitan areas, there was a high correlation to the income disparities before 1990, and it is evident that when the income disparities became significant, the excess in-migrants ratio increased (Figure 1-1-8). Conversely, after the 1990s, the correlation to employment disparities became high, so that when the ratio of active job openings to active job applicants became relatively high, the excess in-migrants ratio increased, showing that the demographic shift between the metropolis areas and the rural areas were greatly affected by economic factors.

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Demographic Shift to the 3 Major Metropolitan Areas and the Disparities in Income and the Ratio of Active Figure 1-1-8 I Job Openings to Active Job Applicants (Employment Disparity, Rate) (Excess In-migrants Ratio, %) (Income Disparity, Rate) Chapter 1 3.0 Income Disparity 1.6 Employment Disparity Correlation Coefficient with Excess In-migrants Ratio 1955~2011 1955~89 1990~2011 2.5 Income Disparity 0.96 0.97 0.04 1.5 1963~2013 1963~89 1990~2013 Current Conditions in Japan such as Declining Population 2.0 Employment Disparity 0.55 0.34 0.93

1.4 1.5

1.0 1.3

0.5 Excess In-migrants Ratio

1.2 0.0

−0.5 1.1

1954 1956 1958 1960 1962 1964 1966 1968 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014(Year) (Notes) 1 The excess in-migrants ratio is calculated as “(in-migrants–out-migrants)/population of Japanese” , income disparity is calculated as “the 3 major metropolitan area average of the income of one prefectural resident/national average (excluding the 3 major metropolitan areas)” , employment disparity is calculated as (the ratio of active job openings to active job applicants) is “the 3 major metropolitan area average of the ratio of active job openings to active job applicants/national average (excluding the 3 major metropolitan areas)” . 2 The numbers of the graph are the correlation coefficient of the excess in-migrants ratio for each period and the disparity index. Source) Developed by MLIT based on “Basic Resident Register Demographic Shift Report” by MIC, “General Public Employment Placement Conditions (Employment Stabilization Statistics) by MHLW, “Prefectural Resident Economy Calculations” by the Cabinet Office.

(Demographic Shift Conditions in Rural Areas According to Age) In the rural areas, there is a correlation between the Demographic Shift Conditions in Rural Figure 1-1-9 change in life stages and demographic shift (Figure 1-1-9). Areas According to Age

The first major demographic shift period is the population Excess In-migrants (Ten thousand people)

exodus that happens when students leave to go to university. 5 Employment Age Excess From 1985 to 1990, there was a population drain of 185 In-migrants Retirement Age

thousand people, but since then there has been a yearly 0 decrease so that from 2005 to 2010, 112 thousand people 1985→1990 left, a marked decrease in the number of people leaving to 1990→1995 −5 Excess about 60 percent of the peak period. Out-migrants 1995→2000 2000→2005 Also, previously those who moved away from the rural 2005→2010 −10 areas to pursue higher education returned after graduation (Number of people moving at each Life Stage) (Unit: Ten thousand people) 1985→ 1990→ 1995→ 2000→ 2005→ to find employment, turning into excess in-migrants, but 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 Age Entering after 2000, those who moved away from the rural areas −15 University ▲18.5 ▲15.7 ▲14.1 ▲12.1 ▲11.2 Age Starting more often than not stayed in the metropolitan areas to find First Job ＋1.6 ＋3.0 ＋1.2 ▲0.3 ▲2.4 Age of employment, changing the trend to additional excess out- Retirement ＋0.2 ＋0.5 ＋0.9 ＋0.8 ＋1.2 −20 Age Entering University 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 21 23 25 27 31 33 35 37 41 43 45 47 51 53 55 57 61 63 65 67 71 73 75 77 81 83 85 migrants. 19 29 39 49 59 69 79 (Age)

On the other hand, looking at the retirement period, the (Notes) 1 For each age, the demographic shift indicates the move from 5 years before. 2 For the graph numbers of the shift for each life stage, it is the average of college population influx to the rural areas has increased by ten entrance ages 19~21, employment ages 24~26 and retirement ages 58~62. 3 The rural area is the total for all prefectures excluding the 3 major metropolitan thousand people from the periods of 1985 to 1990 and 2005 areas. Source) Developed by MLIT based on “National Census” by MIC, “Life Table by to 2010, and in recent years there seems to be a trend of Prefectures” by MHLW. returning to rural areas at retirement.

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(Demographic Shift within the Rural Block) In terms of the demographic shift within the rural block, a comparison of the 4 blocks in which there are rural core cities I (“ ( City)”, “Tohoku Area: ( City)”, “Chugoku Area: Prefecture

(Hiroshima City)” and “Kyushu Area: Prefecture (Fukuoka City)” is shown in the chart below (Figure 1-1-10). Chapter 1 Looking at the demographic shift from 1955 to 2014, each of the core cities all show the tendency towards excess in- migrants. However, within each block there is an excess out-migrants tendency.

Figure 1-1-10 Demographic Shift within Prefectures/Blocks with Rural Core Cities Current Conditions in Japan such as Declining Population

2.0 4.0 2.0 4.0 Excess In-migrants Ratio of Hokkaido Excess In-migrants Ratio of Miyagi Prefecture Excess In-migrants Ratio (%) 1.5 3.0 Excess In-migrants Ratio (%) 1.5 3.0 Sapporo City (Scale on Right Side) 1.0 2.0 1.0 Sendai City 2.0 2014 Miyagi Prefecture 0.5 1.0 2014 0.5 1.0 +0.21% +0.43% (Sendai City) 0.0 0.0 (Sapporo City) 0.0 0.0 +0.10% −0.17% (Miyagi −0.5 −1.0 (Hokkaido) −0.5 −1.0 Prefecture) Tohoku Area −0.20% (Tohoku Area) −1.0 Hokkaido −2.0 −1.0 −2.0

−1.5 −3.0 −1.5 −3.0

−2.0 −4.0 −2.0 −4.0 5 0 5 0 5 0 5 0 5 0 5 0 5 0 5 0 5 0 5 0 5 0 5 0 6 6 7 7 8 8 9 9 0 0 1 6 6 7 7 8 8 9 9 0 0 1 5 5 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 0 0 0 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 0 0 0 9 (Year) 9 (Year) 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 1 1

2.0 4.0 2.0 4.0 Excess In-migrants Ratio of Excess In-migrants Ratio Excess In-migrants Ratio (%) Excess In-migrants Ratio (%) of 1.5 3.0 1.5 3.0 Fukuoka City 1.0 Hiroshima Prefecture 2.0 2014 1.0 2.0 2014 Hiroshima City Fukuoka 0.5 1.0 +0.03% 0.5 Prefecture 1.0 +0.49% (Hiroshima City) (Fukuoka City) 0.0 0.0 −0.09% 0.0 0.0 +0.08% (Hiroshima (Fukuoka −0.5 −1.0 Prefecture) −0.5 −1.0 Prefecture) Chugoku Area −0.13% −0.13% Kyushu Area −1.0 −2.0 (Chugoku Area) −1.0 −2.0 (Kyushu Area)

−1.5 −3.0 −1.5 −3.0

−2.0 −4.0 −2.0 −4.0 5 0 5 0 5 0 5 0 5 0 5 0 5 0 5 0 5 0 5 0 5 0 5 0 5 6 6 7 7 8 8 9 9 0 0 1 0 1 5 6 6 7 7 8 8 9 9 0 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 0 0 0 0 0 (Year) 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 0 (Year) 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 (Notes) 1 The above-mentioned district divisions are as follows: Tokyo Area: Saitama, Chiba, Kanagawa Nagoya Area: Gifu, Aichi, Mie Osaka Area: Kyoto, Osaka, Hyogo, Nara The 3 Major Metropolitan Areas: Tokyo Area, Nagoya Area, Osaka Area Rural Areas: Districts excluding the 3 major metropolitan areas Tohoku Area: , Iwate, Miyagi, Akita, Yamagata, Fukushima, Chugoku Area: Tottori, Shimane, , Hiroshima, Yamaguchi Kyushu Area: Fukuoka, Saga, Nagasaki, , Oita, Miyazaki, Kagoshima 2 Japanese migrants are used for excess in-migrants, and total population is used for population. Source) Developed by MLIT based on “Basic Resident Register Demographic Shift Report” and “Population Projections” by MIC.

(In-migrants/Out-migrants by Prefecture and Total Fertility Rates) In looking at the excess in-migrants/out-migrants by prefecture (Bar Figure: Left Axis) for 2013 and 2014, the excess in-migrants are extremely large for Tokyo, making it very clear that the population is heavily concentrated in the Tokyo metropolitan area (Figure 1-1-11). Other than Tokyo, in the metropolises of Miyagi Prefecture, , , , , (2013 only) and Fukuoka Prefecture, there was an excess of out-migrants, while other districts show a decrease. Especially in 2014, in addition to excess in-migrants decreasing in prefectures outside of Tokyo Area, Osaka Prefecture had an excess of out-migrants, which shows that the population concentration in the Tokyo Area is progressing right from the surrounding areas. Looking at the birth rate (Line Graph: Right Axis) for 2013, the rate is extremely low in Tokyo and tends to be low for all the other prefectures that also have excess in-migrants.

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Figure 1-1-11 Comparison of In-migrants/Out-migrants by Prefecture and Total Fertility Rates

I (People) (Birth Rate) 80,000 2.25

Chapter 1 Excess 2013 70,000 In-migrants 2014 2.00 Total Fertility Rate

60,000 1.75 Current Conditions in Japan such as Declining Population 50,000 1.50

40,000 1.25

National Total 30,000 Fertility Rate 1.43 (2013) 1.00 Total Fertility Rate for Tokyo 1.13 (2013) 20,000 0.75 Excess Out-migrants 10,000 0.50

0 0.25

−10,000 0.00 Tokyo Kyoto Osaka Hokkaido Miyagi Prefecture Saitama Prefecture Chiba Prefecture Kanagawa Prefecture Prefecture Prefecture Prefecture Prefecture Aichi Prefecture Hyogo Prefecture Hiroshima Prefecture Kochi Prefecture Fukuoka Prefecture Oita Prefecture

Source) Developed by MLIT based on MIC: “Basic Resident Register Demographic Shift Report” (Excess In-migrants/Out-migrants) and MHLW: “Vital Statistics (Total Fertility Rate)”

Based on the above, it can be said due to causes such as the post-WWII economic growth, Japan’s population, lead by its younger generation, are being drawn to the Tokyo Area—with its good income and employment conditions—from the Rural Areas, and although there are minor fluctuations due to social and economic conditions, the tendency to concentrate in Tokyo is continuing. In order to slow down the population decline, it is important to remedy the tendency to concentrate everything in Tokyo and promote the shift of people to the rural areas where the birth rate is relatively high.

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2 Total Fertility Rate and Women’s Employment I (1) Current State/Tendency of Total Fertility Rate

Looking at the TFR Note 6 for 2013 by prefecture, it is Chapter 1 Figure 1-1-12 Total Fertility Rate by Prefecture (2013) high in Okinawa, Minami Kyushu and Sanin while being lowest in Minami Kanto, Kinki and Hokkaido (Figure 1-1- 12).

Comparing the birth rate with the rate of unmarried Current Conditions in Japan such as Declining Population people between ages 20 and 49 in the prefecture shows that areas with low birth rates tend to have high rates of unmarried people (Figure 1-1-13) Note 7.

Total Fertility Rate 1.6~2 1.5~1.6 1.35~1.5 1~1.35

Source) Developed by MLIT from “Vital Statistics” by MHLW

Figure 1-1-13 TFR and Rate of Unmarried Men and Women Ages 20 to 49 (2010)

(%) (%) 50 Rate of Unmarried People 44 Rate of Unmarried People (Men: ages 20 to 49) (Women ages 20 to 49)

Rate of Unmarried People Kyoto Rate of Unmarried People 49 Tokyo Saitama 42 Ibaraki Tokyo Kyoto 48 Kanagawa 40 Fukuoka 47 Chiba Okinawa Aichi Nara Osaka 46 Hokkaido Osaka 38 Okinawa Hokkaido Kanagawa Kochi Fukuoka Kagoshima 45 Nara 36 Hyogo Yamagata Miyagi Chiba Shimane Aichi 44 Shiga Miyagi 34 Aomori 43 Hyogo Miyazaki Fukui 32 42 Kagoshima Shimane Akita Yamagata 30 41 Miyazaki Fukui 40 28 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.9 2.0 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.9 2.0 Total Fertility Rate Total Fertility Rate

* Horizontal dotted line is National Numbers Men: Blue Women: Pink Source) Developed by MLIT from “National Census” by MIC, “Vital Statistics” by MHLW

Note 6 As defined in “1. (1)” of this section, within the text of “2.”, Total Fertility Rate is listed as Birth Rate. Note 7 In this section, the solid line (pink) indicates the national numbers.

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Also, for the average age for the first marriage, nationally Total Fertility Rate and Average Age of Figure 1-1-14 I the husband is one or two years older than the wife, with the First Marriage (2012) distribution showing the same tendency for both the (Age)

Chapter 1 32.5 husband and wife, and in regions with a low birth rate such Tokyo Wife Husband 32.0 Average Age of First Marriage as Minami Kanto area, and Kyoto, Osaka prefectures the Kanagawa 31.5 Saitama Nagano age for getting married for the first time tends to be higher Kyoto Chiba 31.0 (Figure 1-1-14). Osaka Nara Hyogo 30.5 Tokyo Hokkaido Fukui Yamagata Shimane

Current Conditions in Japan such as Declining Population Miyagi Aomori 30.0 Kagoshima Kanagawa Fukushima Okinawa Kyoto Saitama Nagano Miyazaki 29.5 Chiba Osaka Hyogo 29.0 Nara Hokkaido Miyagi Kagoshima Shimane 28.5 Aomori Yamagata Fukui Okinawa Miyazaki 28.0 Fukushima 27.5 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 2.0 Total Fertility Rate Source) Developed by MLIT from “Vital Statistics” by MHLW

(2) Relationship of Total Fertility Rate and Women’s Employment Within the progressing population decline and the expected decrease in the population of the child bearing age group, women hold the greatest potential, and that social participation by women is thought to be effective even for building up rural societies that are maintainable. Recognizing that it is vital to improve the birth rate in this social environment, we will analyze the relationship between birth rates and the employment of women using the data from each prefecture as the base.

(Comparisons of Male/Female and Married/Unmarried) First, if we compare the rate of employment Note 8 for men and women between the ages of 20 and 49 with whether they are married or not, for unmarried people, whether men or women, the employment rate exceeds 70%, and there is no difference in the national employment rate of unmarried men and women (Figure 1-1-15). However, in the married person category, the employment rate for men is over 96%, even in Okinawa where the employment rate for men is lowest, while for women there is a large gap between the lowest employment rate of 55.3% in Hyogo Prefecture, to the highest rate of 80.2% in Yamagata Prefecture, and there is a tendency for women’s employment rate to be low in areas where the birth rate is low (Figure 1-1-16).

Note 8 Where the chart is compiled from “Employment Structure Basic Survey” by MIC, “Employed Rate” is listed as “Employment Rate” in the title of the text and chart.

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TFR and Employment Rate of Men and TFR and Employment Rate of Men and Figure 1-1-15 Women Ages 20 to 49 (without spouse) Figure 1-1-16 Women Ages 20 to 49 (with spouse) (2012) (2012) I

(%) (%) Kanagawa Toyama Gifu Chapter 1 100 100 OsakaSaitama Akita Aichi Shiga Shimane Hokkaido Okinawa Tokyo Kyoto Miyagi Chiba Miyazaki 95 95 Kochi Saga Kagoshima Fukui 90 90 Chiba Saga Toyama Employed Rate Kanagawa Chiba Tottori Fukui Shimane 85 Employed Rate Aichi Fukui 85 Toyama Shimane Yamagata Tokyo Osaka Kanagawa Nagasaki 80 Akita Ishikawa Shimane

Saitama Miyazaki Akita Current Conditions in Japan such as Declining Population Tottori 80 Tokyo Hokkaido Aomori Miyazaki 75 Niigata Miyagi Kumamoto Nagasaki Miyazaki Kyoto Kumamoto Okinawa 75 Aomori Fukuoka Tottori 70 Kyoto Osaka Nara Kagoshima Okinawa Kagoshima Okinawa Nara Tokushima 65 Kyoto 70 Hokkaido Miyagi Chiba 60 Hokkaido Nara 65 Tokyo 55 Osaka Hyogo 60 Kanagawa Ages 20 to 49 Employed Rate (excluding men with spouse): Men 50 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.9 2.0 55 Ages 20 to 49 Employed Rate (excluding women with spouse): Women Total Fertility Rate 50 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.9 2.0 Men: Ages 20 to 49 Employed Rate Women: Ages 20 to 49 Employed Rate Total Fertility Rate * Horizontal dotted line is National Numbers Men: Blue Women: Pink * Horizontal dotted line is National Numbers Men: Blue Women: Pink Source) Developed by MLIT from “Employment Structure Basic Survey” by MIC, Source) Developed by MLIT from “Employment Structure Basic Survey” by MIC, “Vital Statistics” by MHLW “Vital Statistics” by MHLW

Hereafter, while following the birth rate and its related factors, we will conduct the analysis with a focus on the employment rate of women with spouse.

(Tendencies of Each Area) In order to look at the birth rate and employment Relationship between TFR and Employ- tendencies of each area, we will plot only the employment Figure 1-1-17 ment Rate Women (with Spouse) Ages 20 rate of women with spouse from Figure 1-1-16 to at it to 49 (2012) closely (Figure 1-1-17). Looking at this figure, there is an (%) 85 obvious distribution tendency that many of the Metropolitan Rural Area 80 Yamagata Area prefectures such as Tokyo are in the lower left where Fukui Shimane Ishikawa Tottori Employed Rate 75 both the birth rate and the employment rate of women with Akita Toyama Miyazaki spouse are lower than the national average, while many of 70 the Rural Area prefectures such as Chugoku Area tend to be Shizuoka Kagoshima 65 Okinawa in the upper right, where both rates are higher than the 60 Kyoto Saitama Chiba Fukuoka Tokyo Hokkaido Nara national average. In other words, it is evident that while the Osaka 55 birth rate and employment rate of women with spouse are Metropolitan Kanagawa Hyogo Area 50 low in the Metropolitan Area prefectures, the birth rate and 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.9 2.0 employment rate of women with spouse both tend to be Total Fertility Rate higher in the Rural Area prefectures. Employed Rate of Women with Spouse Ages 20 to 49 Line shape (Employed Rate of Women with Spouse Ages 20 to 49)

Source) Developed by MLIT from “Employment Structure Basic Survey” by MIC, “Vital Statistics” by MHLW

(Relationship with a Woman’s Life Stage) Next, under the assumption that a woman’s lifestyle changes greatly between the “marriage” phase and “childbirth, child-rearing” phase, we will consider the relationship between these factors and employment rate/birth rate. First, by combining only the data on women from Figure 1-1-15 and Figure 1-1-16, it becomes clear that areas with lower birth rates have a greater difference between the employment rates of women without spouse and women with spouse (Figure 1-1-18).

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Next, looking at the average working hours Note 9 of TFR and Employment Rate of Women I employed people over the age of 15 on a weekday by men Figure 1-1-18 Ages 20 to 49 (With/Without Spouse) and women, and by different life stages, the working hours (2012)

Chapter 1 for men becomes longer in the “child-rearing stage Note 10” (%) Note 11 90 than in the “single stage ” but there is no significant Toyama Fukui Shimane 85 Yamagata Shizuoka difference in the tendencies of the average working hours Tokyo Tottori Chiba Akita Kagoshima 80 Kanagawa Miyazaki

Employed Rate Osaka Yamagata by regions. Hokkaido Hyogo Fukui Shimane Fukuoka Okinawa Kyoto Saitama Tottori 75 Ishikawa Miyazaki Current Conditions in Japan such as Declining Population On the other hand, the average working time for women Nara Akita Toyama becomes shorter in the “child-rearing stage” than in the 70 Shizuoka Kagoshima 65 “single stage” and, along with the large decrease of working Okinawa 60 Kyoto Saitama Chiba Fukuoka hours in the regions with low birth rates, the distribution Nara Tokyo Hokkaido Osaka 55 Hyogo tendencies change a great deal (Figure 1-1-19). When Kanagawa 50 analyzed in conjunction with Figure 1-1-18, regions with a 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.9 2.0 lower birth rate not only have lower employment rate in Total Fertility Rate general for women, but also an added factor that even the Employed Rate of Women with Spouse Ages 20 to 49 Employed Rate Ages 20 to 49 (excluding women with spouse) employed women have shorter working hours. Line shape (Employed Rate of Women with Spouse Ages 20 to 49) Line shape (Employed Rate Ages 20 to 49 (excluding women with spouse)) In other words, we can infer that in regions with a lower * Dotted line is approximate curve (linear approximation) of the data. birth rate there is a large possibility that many women quit Source) Developed by MLIT from “Employment Structure Basic Survey” by MIC, “Vital Statistics” by MHLW working or change to jobs with shorter working hours after getting married or giving birth.

Total Fertility Rate and Average Working Hours of Employed People Over Age 15 (Weekday Men Women Ac- Figure 1-1-19 cording to Life Stage) (2011)

Total Fertility Rate and Average Working Hours of Workers (Weekday: Men) (2011) Total Fertility Rate and Average Working Hours of Workers (Weekday: Women) (2011) (Minutes) (Minutes) Average Working Hours (Weekday) 650 Average Working Hours (Weekday) 550 Hirocshima Miyagi Ibaraki Tokyo Kanagawa Fukui 630 Hyogo Tokyo Kagawa Kanagawa Saitama Chiba Hyogo 610 Kyoto 500 Tottori Shimane Kagoshima Kyoto Nara Miyazaki Okinawa Miyazaki Osaka Tottori 590 Nara Hokkaido Kagoshima Tokyo Yamagata Okinawa Osaka Miyagi Chiba Fukui Shimane Shimane 570 Nara 450 Aomori Okinawa Kyoto Hyogo Kagoshima 550 Osaka Shimane Nara Aomori Fukui Kanagawa Fukui Kagoshima 530 Miyagi Okinawa 400 Miyagi Hyogo Miyazaki Miyazaki 510 Kanagawa Tokyo Osaka 490 MIe 350 Kyoto

470 Aichi 450 300 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.9 2.0 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.9 2.0 Total Fertility Rate Total Fertility Rate

Single Stage Husband in Line Shape (Single Stage) Line Shape Single Stage Wife in Line Shape (Single Stage) Line Shape Child-Rearing Stage (Husband in Child-Rearing Stage) Child-Rearing Stage (Wife in Child-Rearing Stage)

Source) Developed by MLIT from “Civil Life Basic Survey” by MIC, “Vital Statistics” by MHLW

Furthermore, in order to take a more detailed look at the relationship between the birth rate and the employed rate of women with spouse (hereafter referred simply as “employment rate” in the text of this section), we will take examples from the Metropolitan Areas and the Rural Areas, Tokyo/Osaka and Shimane/ respectively, for comparison and analysis. First, looking at the birth rate of each age range Note 12 and the employment rate of women, in areas where the birth rate and employment rate are both low, the graph shows a tendency towards a “M-shaped” curve because the employment rate becomes extremely low for the last half of the 20s to the 30s which are seen to be related to child-bearing and child- rearing. In the areas where both the birth rate and employment rate are high, this “M-shaped” curve is not seen (Figure 1-1-20).

Note 9 Average Working Hours of Workers is the average number of working hours per worker for one day. Note 10 Child-Rearing Stage means having a spouse and an unemployed child under the age of 30. Note 11 Single Stage means having no spouse or child. Note 12 The birth rate referred to here is the numbers of birth for 1,000 women in each age range.

14 WHITE PAPER ON LAND, INFRASTRUCTURE, TRANSPORT AND TOURISM IN JAPAN 2015 Section 1 Demographics of Japan

Figure 1-1-20 Comparison of Birth Rate by Age Range and Employment Rate of Women with Spouse

Birth Rate by Age Range and Employment Rate of Women with Spouse (2010) I Total Fertility Rate (2010) (%) (Per Population of 1,000) (%) (Per Population of 1,000) 100 120 100 120

Shimane Fukui Chapter 1 90 90 100 100 Birth Rate by Age Range 80 80 (Per Population of 1,000) 70 70 80 80 60 60 Employment Rate of Women 50 60 50 60 with Spouse Ages 15 to 64 (2010) 40 40 Employment Rate of 40 40 30 30 Women with Spouse 20 20 20 20 10 10 0 0 0 0 Current Conditions in Japan such as Declining Population 65~ 65~ (Age) (Age) 15~19 20~24 25~29 30~34 35~39 40~44 45~49 50~54 55~59 60~64 15~19 20~24 25~29 30~34 35~39 40~44 45~49 50~54 55~59 60~64

(%) (Per Population of 1,000) (%) (Per Population of 1,000) 100 120 100 120 1.6~2 Tokyo Osaka 1.5~1.6 90 90 1.35~1.5 100 100 1~1.35 80 80 70 70 Total Fertility Rate 80 80 60 60 50 60 50 60 40 40 65~70 40 40 60~65 30 30 55~60 20 20 20 20 50~55 10 10 Employment Rate of Women 0 0 0 0 with Spouse Ages 15 to 64

65~ (Age) 65~ (Age) 15~19 20~24 25~29 30~34 35~39 40~44 45~49 50~54 55~59 60~64 15~19 20~24 25~29 30~34 35~39 40~44 45~49 50~54 55~59 60~64

Source) Developed by MLIT from “National Census” by MIC, “Vital Statistics” by MHLW

Further, in looking at the employment conditions (ratio of regular employment to non-regular employment), areas with the higher birth rates have a higher rate of regular employment for both men and women. Also, in areas where the birth rate is low, in the age range of the latter half of 30s—age at which women are assumed to be in their child-rearing years— there is a reversal of the ratio between regular and non-regular employment, while in areas with high birth rates, women with regular employment maintain a level around 50% up to their early 50s (Figure 1-1-21). The context for the increase in those with non-regular employment with the increase in one’s age in the former areas (where the birth rate is low), is that when the women re-enter the work force after full-time child-rearing has ended, there seems to be a tendency to choose jobs with shorter working hours, or that there is a tendency that only non-regular jobs available.

Figure 1-1-21 Comparison of Birth Rate by Age Range and Condition of Employment

(%) (Per Population of 1,000) (%) (Per Population of 1,000) (%) (Per Population of 1,000) (%) (Per Population of 1,000) 100 120 100 120 100 120 100 120 90 Tokyo 90 Osaka 90 Shimane 90 Fukui 80 100 80 100 80 100 80 100 70 80 70 80 70 80 70 80 60 60 60 60 50 60 50 60 50 60 50 60 40 40 40 40 30 40 30 40 30 40 30 40 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 10 10 10 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

65~ (Age) 65~ (Age) 65~ (Age) 65~ (Age) 15~19 20~24 25~29 30~34 35~39 40~44 45~49 50~54 55~59 60~64 15~19 20~24 25~29 30~34 35~39 40~44 45~49 50~54 55~59 60~64 15~19 20~24 25~29 30~34 35~39 40~44 45~49 50~54 55~59 60~64 15~19 20~24 25~29 30~34 35~39 40~44 45~49 50~54 55~59 60~64

Men: Rate of Regular Employment Men: Rate of Non-regular Employment Women: Rate of Regular Employment Women: Rate of Non-regular Employment Birth Rate by Age Range (Per Population of 1,000)

Source) Developed by MLIT based on “National Census” by MIC and “Vital Statistics” by MHLW.

From the above information, it can be inferred that in the prefectures with a high employment rate, the rate of leaving jobs for childbirth and child-rearing is low, and due to having an environment where women can continue in regular employment, results in lowering the opportunity cost incurred for childbirth and child-rearing. On the other hand, in the prefectures with a low employment rate, it can be inferred that for some reason, there are obstacles to pursuing both “childbirth and child-rearing” and “work” so that women are compelled to make a choice between the two.

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(Causal Analysis ~“Childbirth/Child-rearing” or “Work”~) I What then are the factors that make it possible for women to give birth and raise children without quitting their jobs? In general, the main reasons suggested are things like the rate of multi-generational families and the rate of available

Chapter 1 childcare facilities Note 13. These two factors are thought to directly influence the rate of employment for women (Figure 1-1-22). Another consideration is that the birth rate and employment rate are low in places like Kanagawa, Nara, Tokyo, and Osaka, all prefectures that require longer time for commuting to work, while the employment rate and birth rate are both

Current Conditions in Japan such as Declining Population higher in prefectures like Shimane, Fukui and Miyazaki with shorter commute times. (Figure 1-1-23). In Miyazaki and Kagoshima prefectures, although the rate of multi-generational families and available childcare facilities are not high, the average commute time is shorter, making it clear that the proximity of workplace and home also affects the employment rate for women.

Employment Rate of Women and Rate Employment Rate for Women Aged 15 of Multi-generational Families/Potential Figure 1-1-23 to 64 and Commute Time (Average Time Figure 1-1-22 Acceptance Rate of Fixed Number of for Workers) Children by Childcare Facilities (2010) Weekday Average Working Hours of Regularly Employed Women

Rate of Multi-generational Families – Potential Acceptance (%) (Commute) Rate of Fixed Number Children by Childcare Facilities 50

45 (Minutes) Kanagawa Yamagata 100 Chiba 40 Akita Iwate Fukui Tokyo Saitama Fukui Nara 35 Aomori Niigata Shimane

Average Commute Time 90 30 Saga Tottori Toyama Hyogo Fukui Shimane 25 Tottori Nagano 80 Saga 20 Osaka Ishikawa Okinawa 15 Nara Okinawa Mie Miyazaki Yamagata 70 Tokyo Hyogo Kyoto Kagoshima 10 Nara Miyazaki Osaka Kagoshima Fukuoka Kanagawa Kyoto Miyagi Kyoto 5 Osaka Gifu Tokyo Hyogo Miyagi 60 Kanagawa Nagano 0 Kumamoto Saga Ishikawa Toyama 55 60 65 70 75 80 Okinawa Kagoshima Employment Rate of Women (%) 50 Tottori Iwate Niigata Fukui Potential Acceptance Rate of Fixed Number of Children Kochi Akita Yamagata Hokkaido by Childcare Facilities (For Ages 20 to 39 Women) Miyazaki Shimane Multi-generational Families with Members Aged 6 or younger 40 Line Shape (Potential Acceptance Rate of Fixed Number of 50 55 60 65 70 Children by Childcare Facilities (For Ages 20 to 39 Women)) Line Shape (Multi-generational Families with Members Aged 6 or younger) Employment Rate of Women Ages 15 to 64 (%)

Source) Developed by MLIT from “National Census” by MIC and “Social Welfare Facilities Source) Developed by MLIT from “Civil Life Basic Survey (2011)” and “National Census Survey” by MHLW. (2010)” by MIC

Note 13 The Potential Acceptance Rate of Fixed Number of Children by Childcare Facilities is the fixed number of children to be accepted by childcare facilities divided by the population of women ages 20 to 39. Potential Acceptance Rate of Fixed Number of Children by Childcare Facilities = Fixed Number of Children to be accepted by childcare facilities/Population of Women Ages 20 to 39.

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To add an explanation to the scatter diagram in Figure Relationship between TFR and Employ- 1-1-17 based on the above factors, areas with a birth rate Figure 1-1-24 ment Rate of Women (with Spouse) Ages I and employment rate for women that are lower than the 20 to 49 (2012) national average—showing in the bottom left quadrant of (%) Chapter 1 85 the chart—are areas where combining child-rearing and Easy to Combine Working with Child-rearing 80 Yamagata working is difficult. In the same way, we can infer that Fukui Shimane Ishikawa Tottori Employed Rate 75 areas showing in the upper right quadrant of the chart with Akita Toyama Miyazaki birth rate and employment rate for women that are higher 70 Current Conditions in Japan such as Declining Population Shizuoka Kagoshima than the national average are areas where combining child- 65 Okinawa rearing with working is easier. (Figure 1-1-24) Note 14. 60 Kyoto Saitama Chiba Fukuoka Nara Tokyo Hokkaido Osaka 55 Difficult to Combine Kanagawa Hyogo Working with Child-rearing 50 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.9 2.0 Total Fertility Rate

Employment Rate of Women with Spouse Ages 20 to 49 Line Shape (Employment Rate of Women with Spouse Ages 20 to 49)

Source) Developed by MLIT from “Employment Structure Basic Survey” by MIC, “Vital Statistics” by MHLW.

(Conclusion) As seen above, factors such as the rate of multi-generational families and acceptance rate of fixed number of children by childcare facilities and the proximity of work to the home seem to be related to whether women can continue working while having and raising children. In the Rural Areas where this kind of environment seems relatively obtainable, it is important to build an attractive community that will make it easy for young people and women to come from the city by enhancing these attractive qualities and securing the employment environment. On the other hand, in the Metropolitan Areas, in view of combining child-rearing and work, it is important to improve the above factors, for example by building urban communities that make it possible to have work and home in closer proximity. Either way, as the population decline progresses in the future, if there is a demand for work opportunities for women, it will be important to build an environment that both women and men are able to combine work and child-rearing by promoting various flexible ways of working to further improve work-life balance, and one which does not force women to choose between “childbirth/child-rearing” and “work”.

Note 14 The data for the TFR and Employment Rate of Married Women Ages 20 to 49 in the 47 prefectures for 2012 (Figure 1-1-24) indicates a positive linear slope on the chart, but no real correlation can be seen in the coefficients. For reference, if the coefficients are calculated by excluding Okinawa Prefecture, which has a TFR much higher than the national average, a weak correlation can be detected. However, a correlation does not necessarily mean a causal relationship exists. The TFR for Okinawa Prefecture is 3 times the standard deviation value of the national average.

WHITE PAPER ON LAND, INFRASTRUCTURE, TRANSPORT AND TOURISM IN JAPAN 2015 17 Section 2 The Affect of Population Decline on the Cities and Life in the Rural Areas

[Reference] Regarding the Total Fertility Rate Calculation of Total Fertility Rate for the Figure 1-1-25 I The Total Fertility Rate Note 15 focuses on the birth Period conditions of a certain period of time (one year), limited to Total Fertility Rate=Total of (Number of births by mother’s age/ population of Japanese women of that age on October 1st to Chapter 1 the women of each age (age 15 to 49) during that year and present) for those ages 15 through 49 adds up the birth rate for each age. It projects the number of Sector Population of Number of Rate of Births children a woman will have over her lifetime (Figure 1-1- Age Women A Births B C=B / A 25). This shows the “birth rate of that year”, excluding the 15 39,344 5 0.000127 16 40,106 36 0.000898 Current Conditions in Japan such as Declining Population difference in age range construct of the female population, 17 40,676 87 0.002139 and is used to make comparisons on a yearly, international, 18 41,811 17 0.000407 and regional basis. 19 46,389 435 0.009377

46 51,558 9 0.000175 47 53,871 2 0.000037 48 59,589 2 0.000034 49 67,541 0 0 Total 1.240455

Section 2 The Affect of Population Decline on the Cities and Life in the Rural Areas

1 The Awareness of Citizens Regarding Population Decline

As seen in the previous section, it is predicted that the population is going to rapidly decrease in Japan. Under such conditions, there is a rising sense of crisis regarding population decline among the citizens, and according to the public opinion survey conducted by the Cabinet Office in August 2014, over 90% of the citizens responded that “population decline is not desirable” (Figure 1-2-1). On the other hand, especially in the Urban Areas, there seem to be relatively few instances in the daily life and cities where people live where citizens actually feel the effects of population decline, in comparison to the large number of people responding that “population decline is not desirable”. According to the questionnaire conducted by MLIT (hereafter “Public Awareness Survey”) Note 16, the ratio of those responding that they “have” or “have somewhat” felt the effects of

Actual Experience of Population De- Figure 1-2-1 Awareness of Population Decline Figure 1-2-2 cline Population decline is not desirable: 94.3% (%) 2.3 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 33.1 18.6 23.5 19.1 2.2 Have actual experience of population decline: 39.7% 1.1 Total 14.5 25.2 17.5 17.3 17.4 8.0 (n=3,000) 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Have actual experience of population decline: 32.1% (%) Metropolitan Area 10.3 21.7 19.2 19.8 21.4 7.6 Population decline is not desirable and efforts should be made to increase (n=1,674) Population decline is not desirable and the current level of population should be maintained Have actual experience of population decline: 49.5% Rural Area Population decline is not desirable and efforts should be made to lower the rate of decrease 19.8 29.6 15.3 14.3 12.4 8.5 (n=1,326) Population decline is not desirable but cannot be helped Population decline is desirable It doesn’t matter whether the Population Declines or increases Have actual experience Sort of have experience Do not know Cannot say either way Cannot say to have an actual experience Have no actual experience Do not know (Note) The numbers have been rounded up so the totals may not match with the fractions. Source) “Public Opinion Survey Regarding the Future Image of Japan's Population, (Note) The numbers have been rounded up so the totals may not match with the fractions. Economic Society, Etc.” by Cabinet Office Source) “Public Awareness Survey” by MLIT

Note 15 The Total Fertility Rate explained here is “term” total fertility rate. Other than this, there is the “cohort” total fertility rate but, in general, in referring to Total Fertility Rate, the “term” total fertility rate is used, therefore the “cohort” total fertility rate is not explained here. For details, refer to MHLW’s website (http://www.mhlw.go.jp/toukei/list/81-1a.html). Note 16 Conducted using internet in February 2015 with target population of all individuals in Japan. (3,000 responses).

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population decline was only 32.1% in the Urban Areas, while in the Rural Areas Note 17 it was up to 49.5%, almost half the respondents, showing there is a discrepancy between the Urban Areas and the Rural Areas with how the effects of the I population decline are actually experienced (Figure 1-2-2). However, for both the Urban Areas and the Rural Areas, there seems to be a gap between the sense of crisis as seen in Figure 1-2-1 and having an actual sense of experiencing the Chapter 1 effects.

2 The Effects of Population Decline on the Cities and Daily Life in Rural Areas Current Conditions in Japan such as Declining Population The following are some of the main areas that are expected to be specifically affected in the cities and daily life of rural areas if the population decline continues to progress.

(1) Reduction of Services Related to Daily Life (Stores, Restaurants, Recreation, Medical Facilities, etc.) The various services necessary for conducting our daily lives are provided based on a certain population size. The necessary population size varies depending on the type of service, and Figure 1-2-3 shows the distribution condition of these services. For example, for a general hospital with over 80% placement probability to be placed in a city, the population size has to exceed 27,500 people (population of over 5,500 people necessary for over 50% probability of placement). When the population decline cuts into the population base necessary to establish daily life-related services, the service industries will progressively withdraw from the district, causing daily life to become more inconvenient by making it difficult to get the products and services necessary for daily living.

Figure 1-2-3 Population Size and Location of Service Facilities (Excluding the 3 Major Metropolitan Areas)

0 to 2,000 people 2,000 to 4,000 people 4,000 to 6,000 people 6,000 to 8,000 people 8,000 to 10,000 people 10,000 to 20,000 people 20,000 to 50,000 people 50,000 to 100,000 people 100,000 to 200,000 people 200,000 to 500,000 people More than 500,000 people 500 people 32,500 people 47,500 people 175,000 people 225,000 people Food and Beverage Service [216,158] Pets and Pet-related Items Store [2,299] 3 Major Brands of Foreign Car Dealers [287] Retail Store 1,500 people 2,500 people 9,500 people 22,500 people 77,500 people 92,500 people 275,000 people Men’s Clothing Store [10,773] Shopping Center Books and Stationary Store [24,630] (Retail Floor Area 15,000m2 and over) [491] Department Store [100] 500 people Accommodations, 2,500 people 7,500 people 32,500 people 52,500 people 175,000 people 275,000 people Restaurants [325,141] Coffee Shops [28,777] Starbucks Coffee Shops [345] Food and 500 people 4,500 people Hamburger Shops [ 2,541] Beverage Services 500 people Drinking Establishments, Beer Halls [66,081] Japanese Inns, Hotels [35,268] 5,500 people 17,500 people 72,500 people 175,000 people Amusement Centers [12,070] 17,500 people 37,500 people 57,500 people Entertainment Venues, Entertainers [802] Services related Karaoke Centers [3,488] 82,500 people to daily life 27,500 people 47,500 people Wedding Halls [880] Music, Movie, Recording Equipment Rentals [1,907] 87,500 people 175,000 people 42,500 people 62,500 people Movie Theaters [315] Fitness Clubs [1,392] Financial 500 people 6,500 people 9,500 people 52,500 people 87,500 people Institutions Post Office [12,457] Banks (excluding the Central Bank) [8,678] Financial Instruments Businesses [1,182] 27,500 people 32,500 people 57,500 people 87,500 people 5,500 people 6,500 people Academic Research, Private Preparatory Schools [24,717] Education/Learning Foreign Language Schools [3,514] Museums, Art Museums [1,213] 4,500 people 17,500 people 32,500 people 77,500 people 125,000 people 175,000 people Support Music Schools [11,590] Academic/Research and Development Institutions [2,537] Universities [440] 500 people 5,500 people 27,500 people General Clinics [48,083] 97,500 people 225,000 people 500 people 2,500 people General Hospitals [4,554] Community Healthcare Hospitals [274] 6,500 people 9,500 people 17,500 people 37,500 people Dental Clinics [30,966] 175,000 people 275,000 people 500 people 4,500 people Seniors Daycare and Short Stay Facilities [8,044] Critical Care Hospitals [2,214] Medical and Emergency Medical Care Centers [142] Elderly Care Facilities [3,689] 8,500 people 27,500 people Welfare Home Care Services [6,406] The number of municipalities where a facility 225,000 people 375,000 people Institutions Existence of the mentioned industry exists for a certain population size 9,500 people 22,500 people 32,500 people 62,500 people = Hospitals offering Advanced Medical Care [241] Probability X 100(%) Number of municipalities with the specified population size Elderly Health Care Facilities [2,368] Convalescent Medical Care Facilities [1,227] The smallest municipality with a population size that exceeds those with the ratio of municipalities where even one of the facilities for the mentioned industries exists (Existence Probability) is 50% (left edge) and 42,500 people 125,000 people 80% (right edge), (Value is interval average. For example, in a case where a municipality of 0 to 1,000 Private Nursing Homes [1,293] people first exceeded 50% is listed as 500 people.) Existence Probability 22,500 people 52,500 people 100% Car Rental Businesses [3,304] 80% 47,500 people 87,500 people Left Edge: 50% Right Edge: 80% Services for Existence Probability Existence Probability Services Associated with the Internet [1,883] 50% 17,500 people 27,500 people Commercial 87,500 people 275,000 people * In calculating the Existence Probability, taking into Certified Public Accountant Offices [827] Businesses account the number of municipalities based on Tax Accountant Offices [11,063] each population size, calculated by intervals of 57,500 people 77,500 people Population Size every 1,000 people for municipalities with less than 10,000 people, intervals of every 5,000 people for Legal Firms [3,259] * Inside [ ] is national numbers population size of 10,000 to 100,000 people, and Population Size of 50% Population Size of 80% intervals of every 50,000 people for population size 37,500 people 62,500 people (excluding the 3 Major Metropolitan Areas) of over 100,000 people. of business facility numbers Existence Probability Existence Probability Management Consultants [4,026]

(Note) The 3 Major Metropolitan Areas: Saitama, Chiba, Tokyo, Kanagawa, Gifu, Aichi, Mie, Kyoto, Osaka, Nara, Hyogo Source) MLIT

Note 17 In the “Public Awareness Survey”, the 3 Major Metropolitan Areas are called Urban Areas and all areas outside of the 3 Major Metropolitan Areas are called the Rural Areas.

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In addition, the tertiary industries such Figure 1-2-4 The Industry Type Ratio of Rural Areas (2010) I as service industries make up over 60% of employment in the Rural Areas. The Tertiary Industry 67.4% 0.1 0.5 2.3 Chapter 1 withdrawal of these service industries will 6.8 8.7 17.1 5.3 17.0 11.9 23.6 4.0 lead to a decrease in employment 1.5 1.4 opportunities in the region, which could 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 lead to further Population Decline (Figure (%) , Forestry and Fishery Mining, Quarrying, Gravel Extraction Industry

Current Conditions in Japan such as Declining Population 1-2-4). Construction Industry Manufacturing Industry Electricity, Gas, Heating, Water Industry Transport Industry, Postal Industry Information and Communication Industry Financial Industry, Insurance Industry Wholesale Industry, Retail Industry Medical, Welfare Real Estate Industry, Rental Supply Industry Public Administration (excluding those included in other categories) Service Industry

(Notes) 1 For expediency, the industries included in “Service Industry” includes “Academic Research, Specialty/Technical Service Industry”, “Accommodations, Food and Beverage Service Industry”, “Daily Life-Related Services, Entertainment Industry”, “Education, Learning Support Services”, “Combined Services Industry” and “Service Industry (those not included in any other category)”. 2 Rural Areas: All areas excluding the 3 Major Metropolitan Areas (Saitama, Chiba, Tokyo, Kanagawa, Gifu, Aichi, Mie, Kyoto, Osaka, Nara, Hyogo) Source) Developed by MLIT from “2010 National Census” by MIC

(2) Falling Standard of Administrative Services Due to Decrease in Tax Income A decline in population also has a major impact on the finances of the local government. With population decline and its resulting shrinkage of economic/industrial activities, the tax income of the local public entities will decrease. Meanwhile, social security expenses are expected to rise because of the growing elderly population, so that condition are expected to become even tougher on local governments. Should these conditions continue, it is projected that social services that had been previously provided will be abolished or more fees charged, making daily life more inconvenient as a result. In addition, under these difficult financial conditions of local governments, the issue of aging infrastructures, such as the public facilities, roads, bridges and sewage systems built in the high economic growth period, will also need to be addressed.

(3) Down-Sizing, Withdrawal of the Local Public Transportation Until now, local public transportation has mostly been supported by private businesses. However, if the decrease in the population of children, students and working-aged people progresses because of the population decline, the number of commuters will decrease. This will make it difficult for private businesses to offer transportation services based on profit performance, and it is predicted that the unprofitable routes of local railways and bus lines will either be shutdown or decrease the frequency of service. In Rural Areas, with the growth of the aging population, there is a growing need for public transportation as the means of mobility for the elderly people who cannot drive cars. Therefore, the deterioration of local public transportation services has an even greater effect on daily life than in the past.

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(4) Increase in Vacant Houses, Vacant Stores, Old Factory Sites, Deserted Arable Land While on one hand the population is decreasing, by Shift in Number of Vacant Houses Ac- Figure 1-2-5 I contrast the total number of housing is increasing, and the cording to Type Chapter 1 number of vacant housing units continues to grow (10,000 housing units) (%) consistently across the country. In particular, the number of 900 18 units categorized as “Other Housing”, which includes 800 16 13.5 700 13.1 14 housing that have not been inhabited for long periods for 12.2 11.5 lack of renter or buyers, has been growing. “Other Housing” 600 268 318 12 Current Conditions in Japan such as Declining Population 9.4 9.8 212 also includes units without clear plans for maintenance or 500 182 10 disposal, and tend to be poorly maintained compared to the 400 149 8 131 300 6 vacant housing units in other categories (Figure 1-2-5). 398 448 460 352 200 4 In addition, due to the shrinkage in local economic and 234 262 industrial activities, as well as lack of successors, there is 100 2 37 42 50 41 41 0 30 0 an increase in vacant stores, old factory sites and deserted 1988 1993 1998 2003 2008 2013(Year) arable land. This, along with the increase in vacant housing, Secondary Housing Housing for Rent or Sale Other Housing Rate of Vacant Housing leads to the regional landscape becoming unsightly, public (Note) Secondary Housing: Vacation homes and other housing (Housing where people safety hazards, increase in accidents such as building reside once in a while); Housing for Rent or Sale: New or old housing that is vacant in order to rent or sell; Other Housing: Housing that remains vacant other collapses and fires, and serves to lower the overall than for the reasons above, for example homes that are left vacant for long periods of time for reasons like job relocation or hospitalization, or left vacant to attractiveness of the district. be demolished for rebuilding. Source) Developed by MLIT from “Housing and Land Survey” by MIC

(5) Functional Decline of Local Communities Population decline has a major impact on the functional decline of the local communities. Not only will the cooperative capabilities of citizens’ organizations such as the neighborhood and residents associations suffer for the lack of leaders, the decrease in the numbers of local volunteers for the community firefighting squad threatens to reduce the district’s capability to handle emergency situations. Also, as the decrease in numbers of children and students progress, the number of classes will decrease, classroom sizes will shrink, and may eventually lead to the elimination and consolidation of schools. This decline in the youth population will make it difficult to pass on the local history and traditional culture, and could cause a problem in carrying on traditional events such as local festivals. In this way, the decline in residents engaging in local activities will decrease the number of opportunities for interaction among the residents, and the enthusiasm and affection for the area will be lost.

As evident from above, population Situations in Which the Population Decline is Experienced Figure 1-2-6 decline can have various effects on the (Up to 3 answers possible) cities and the daily life in the Rural Areas, (%) some that have already manifested and 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 27.2 others that yet to become apparent. Of School was closed 26.8 38.5 those in Figure 1-2-2 who responded that Do not hear voices of children playing outside 37.3 they “have” or “have somewhat” The number of stores with closed shutters 51.6 has increased in the shopping district 58.1 experienced the effects of population 8.9 Department stores or supermarkets closed 13.0 decline, when asked in what situations they The frequency of buses and trains running 13.2 experienced the decrease in population, a has decreased, the route was cancelled 21.8 The neglect of public facilities such as 4.5 high percentage answered “the number of roads and has increased 3.0 The number of medical facilities and welfare 4.3 stores with closed shutters has increased in facilities has decreased (No longer available) 2.1 46.9 the shopping district” and “often see vacant Often see vacant houses 53.0

Often hear of people moving away 4.5 houses”, and an especially high percentage 4.7 20.1 in the Rural Areas answered that “the The community doesn’t seem as active as before 19.8 Metropolitan Areas (n＝537) 2.0 frequency of buses and trains running has Other Rural Areas (n＝656) 1.5 decreased, the route was cancelled” (Figure Source) “Public Awareness Survey” by MLIT 1-2-6).

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The various effects of population decline on the cities and daily life of the Rural Areas may lead to a vicious cycle of I further reducing the population of these regions, due to the diminishing quality of life and attractiveness. Figure 1-2-7 is an illustration of this cycle. Chapter 1 Figure 1-2-7 Illustration of the Vicious Cycle of Population Decline

Population decline Current Conditions in Japan such as Declining Population

Fewer daily life-related services Poor service quality of Increase in vacant Lack of participants in Withdrawal and community organizations (retail, food and beverage, administrative services and housing, vacant stores, Consolidation or aging social infrastructure for shrinkage of local (neighborhood associations, entertainment, medical old factory sites and closing of schools reasons such as reduced tax public transportation volunteer firefighters, facilities, etc.) income deserted arable land community festivals, etc.)

Decrease in employment opportunities Functional decline of local community (employment)

Decreasing convenience for daily life Decreasing attractiveness of local area

Further Population Decline

Source) MLIT

Since the effects and the degree of said effects will depend on the characteristics of the locale, the process depicted in the illustration will not apply to all districts. However, it is important to not just have a vague sense of crisis regarding population decline, but to share an awareness that this is an imminent problem that may occur in one’s own resident district. Then, based on that shared awareness, work on facing the problems caused by population decline as a unified district. As outlined in the following chapters, Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism understands the importance of realizing prosperous living that extends to future generations, and will work to promote the building of attractive districts by making cities more compact to consolidate administrative functions, and securing local daily life services by strengthening the transportation network.

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Column The Current Conditions of Vacant Housing and the Establishment of the “Act on I Special Measures concerning the Promotion of MeasuresColumn for Vacant Buildings, etc.” Chapter 1 In recent years, the number of vacant housing units is increasing all over the country, and countermeasures are becoming necessary due to the possibility of various problems arising (external diseconomy) such as the collapse of buildings due to poor management or dilapidation, the riotous growth of weeds causing local landscape to be ruined and creating hygiene issues from illegal dumping, as well as the endangering public Current Conditions in Japan such as Declining Population safety due to trespassing and arson. The vacant housing units that create these kinds of issues are mainly “Other Housing” that have been left vacant for long periods due to job transfers or hospitalization of the residents, or have been scheduled for demolition or rebuilding. These vacant housing units would not be problematic if they are being taken care of properly, however if they are abandoned and insufficiently maintained, there is the possibility of incurring external diseconomy. In 2013, the ratio of vacant housing to the total number of housing by prefecture (Vacant Housing Rate), Yamanashi had the highest rate at 22.0% followed by Nagano at 19.8%. However, this Vacant Housing Rate includes “Secondary Housing” and “Housing for Rent or Sale”. When looking at the “Other Housing” rate (hereafter “Rate of Vacant Other Housing”), Yamanashi and Nagano prefectures—despite having the highest Vacant Housing Rate—are not even in the top 10 prefectures for the Rate of Vacant Other Housing. These statistics are most likely due to a large number of vacation homes being located in these two prefectures, as both are easily accessible from the Tokyo Area. In looking at the Composition Ratio of Vacant Housing, the percentage of “Secondary Housing” is extremely high compared to other prefectures. The percentage of actual “Other Housing” in Yamanashi was 36.2% and 38.4% in Nagano, both which are lower than the national average of 38.8%.

Figure1-2-8 Composition Ratio of Vacant Housing and the Rate of Vacant Other Housing (%) (%) 100 12 90 10 80 70 8 60 50 6 40 4 30 20 2 10 Kagoshima Prefecture Kochi Prefecture Wakayama Prefecture Tokushima Prefecture Kagawa Prefecture Shimane Prefecture Ehime Prefecture Yamaguchi Prefecture Mie Prefecture Tottori Prefecture Miyazaki Prefecture Okayama Prefecture Nagasaki Prefecture Yamanashi Prefecture Oita Prefecture Kumamoto Prefecture Akita Prefecture Iwate Prefecture Hiroshima Prefecture Fukui Prefecture Niigata Prefecture Saga Prefecture Ishikawa Prefecture Nara Prefecture Gifu Prefecture Gunma Prefecture Aomori Prefecture Fukushima Prefecture Shiga Prefecture Kyoto Tochigi Prefecture Hyogo Prefecture Ibaraki Prefecture All of Japan Yamagata Prefecture Hokkaido Fukuoka Prefecture Osaka Chiba Prefecture Miyagi Prefecture Okinawa Prefecture Aichi Prefecture Saitama Prefecture Kanagawa Prefecture 0 Tokyo 0

Secondary Housing Housing for Rent or Sale Other Housing Rate of Vacant Other Housing (Right Axis)

Source) Developed by MLIT from “2013 Housing and Land Survey” by MIC

Looking at the relationship between the “Rate of Vacant Other Housing” and the “Rate of Population Increase-Decrease” by prefecture, it is evident that the prefectures with a high “Rate of Population Decline” have the tendency to also have a high “Rate of Vacant Other Housing”. Also, looking at the relationship between the “Rate of Vacant Other Housing” and the “Aging Population Rate”, it is evident that the prefectures with a high “Aging Population Rate” tend to also have a high “Rate of Vacant Other Housing”. Based on this correlation, it is predicted that with the expected acceleration of decrease in the overall population and increase in the aging population in the Rural Areas, the number of vacant housing will rise even more.

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I For the vacant houses that are likely to incur external diseconomy, until recently rural public organizations have individually formulated ordinances regarding the appropriate management of vacant houses to deal

Chapter 1 with the issue. However, due to (1) difficulty in identifying the owner or manager, (2) reluctance in taking forcible measures against private property such as giving orders based on ordinances, the national government had been appealed to, to provide legislation that dealt with vacant housing that incurred external diseconomy.

Current Conditions in Japan such as Declining Population In response to this, the “Act on Special Measures concerning the Promotion of Measures for Vacant Buildings, etc.” was enacted by House Members on November 19, 2014, and went into partial enforcement on February 26, 2015, then full enforcement from May 26, 2015. Furthermore, based on Article 5 Paragraph 1, the “Basic Guidelines to Comprehensively and Systematically Enforce the Ordinances Regarding Vacant Housing” was established. This ordinance, after defining “Vacant Housing” as a building and/or attached structure as well as its premises that are not ordinarily being used as a residence or for other purposes (Article 2 Paragraph 1), states that municipalities can decide on a countermeasure plan for vacant housing based on the above Basic Guidelines (Article 6). This countermeasure plan includes the basic guidelines regarding vacant housing, a planning period, an investigation of vacant housing, the promotion of appropriate management and use, measures for “Special Vacant Housing”, how to handle inquiries from citizens, and an implementation system for ordinances, so that it not only provides measures for poorly managed vacant housing, it also provides preventative measures. “Vacant Housing” that is identified as fulfilling the 4 conditions of: (1) in a condition that, if left as is, may become a serious threat to public safety in ways such as collapsing, (2) in a condition that, if left as is, may become a serious hygiene hazard, (3) in a condition that is seriously damaging the local scenery due to lack of adequate maintenance, (4) in any other condition where neglect would be inappropriatet in light of conserving the living environment of the vicinity, are defined as “Special Vacant Housing” (Article 2 Paragraph 2). For “Special Vacant Housing”, the mayor of the city has been given the right to handle the process from providing advice and guidance, giving warning, to giving orders and execution by proxy in taking necessary steps such as disposal, repair and cutting of standing trees (Article 14). If action is not taken after advice and guidance has been given, then the procedures of issuing a warning and then further giving an order will be followed, but first steps are taken to encourage the property owner to handle the issue. Also, if a person who has been given an order does not implement improvements without good reason, the mayor of the city can enforce the law by proxy. MLIT supports the efforts of the local public organizations in promoting the use or removal of vacant Housing. An example of this is the adding of an Actual Conditions Investigation of Vacant Housing—needed by municipalities for formulating an Vacant Housing Countermeasure Plan—as a subject to support the Vacant Housing Reclamation Promotion Project. Furthermore, due to the partial revision of the “Rural Tax Law” which was enacted on March 31, 2015, it has been ruled that in cases where the city mayor took the necessary steps according to this law in giving warning to the owner of “Special Vacant Housing” and the owner does not make the required adjustment by January 1st of the following year, the land that is used as the premises of the Special Vacant Housing will be excluded from being eligible as an exceptional residential land for the purpose of fixed property tax. By combining and making use of these systems, we expect that the municipalities will work even harder to promote the Vacant Housing Countermeasures.

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Figure1-2-9 Rate of Vacant Other Housing by Prefecture and Relation- Figure1-2-10 Rate of Vacant Other Housing by Prefecture and Relation- ship to Population Increase-Decrease Rate I (2013) ship to Aging Population Rate (2013) I Population Increase-Decrease Rate (%) (%) 0.8 33 R² ＝ 0.6179 Chapter 1 0.6 Aging Population Rate 31 0.4 29 0.2 0.0 27 －0.2 25 －0.4 23

－0.6 21 Current Conditions in Japan such as Declining Population －0.8 19 －1.0 1.2 17 － R² ＝ 0.497 －1.4 15 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 Rate of Vacant Other Housing (%) Rate of Vacant Other Housing (%)

Source) Developed by MLIT from “Population Projections (as of October 1, 2013)”, Source) Developed by MLIT using “Population Projections (as of October 1, 2013)”, “2013 Housing and Land Survey” by MIC “2013 Housing and Land Survey” by MIC

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