ADBI Working Paper Series Japan’s Lost Decade: Lessons for Other Economies Naoyuki Yoshino and Farhad Taghizadeh-Hesary No. 521 April 2015 Asian Development Bank Institute Naoyuki Yoshino is Dean and CEO of the Asian Development Bank Institute. Farhad Taghizadeh-Hesary is Assistant Professor of Economics at Keio University, Tokyo. He is also a visiting scholar at the Credit Risk Database (CRD) Association of Japan and Research Assistant to the Dean of ADBI. The views expressed in this paper are the views of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of ADBI, ADB, its Board of Directors, or the governments they represent. ADBI does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this paper and accepts no responsibility for any consequences of their use. Terminology used may not necessarily be consistent with ADB official terms. Working papers are subject to formal revision and correction before they are finalized and considered published. 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Email: [email protected]; [email protected] Asian Development Bank Institute Kasumigaseki Building 8F 3-2-5 Kasumigaseki, Chiyoda-ku Tokyo 100-6008, Japan Tel: +81-3-3593-5500 Fax: +81-3-3593-5571 URL: www.adbi.org E-mail: [email protected] © 2015 Asian Development Bank Institute ADBI Working Paper 521 Yoshino and Taghizadeh-Hesary Abstract Japan has suffered from sluggish economic growth and recession since the 1990s, a phenomenon dubbed “Japan’s Lost Decade.” The People’s Republic of China, many countries in the eurozone, and the United States may face similar problems in future and they have been concerned by Japan’s long-term recession. This paper will address why Japan’s economy has stagnated since the bursting of its economic bubble. Our empirical analysis challenges the beliefs of some western economists, such as Paul Krugman, that the Japanese economy is in a liquidity trap. We argue that Japan’s economic stagnation stems from a vertical IS curve rather than a liquidity trap. The impact of fiscal policy has declined drastically, and the Japanese economy faces structural problems rather than a temporary downturn. These structural problems have many causes: an aging demographic (a problem that is frequently overlooked), an over-reliance by local governments on transfers from the central government, and Basel capital requirements that have made Japanese banks reluctant to lend money to startup businesses and small and medium-sized enterprises. This latter issue has discouraged Japanese innovation and technological progress. The paper will address all these issues empirically and theoretically and will provide some remedies for Japan’s long-lasting recession. JEL Classification: E12, E62 ADBI Working Paper 521 Yoshino and Taghizadeh-Hesary Contents 1. Introduction ................................................................................................................ 3 2. Causes of the Long-Term Recession in Japan .......................................................... 4 2.1 Aging Population ............................................................................................ 4 2.2 Monetary Transfers from Central to Local Governments ................................ 5 2.3 Banking Behavior ........................................................................................... 5 2.4 Excessive Contractionary Monetary Policy ..................................................... 6 2.5 Reduced Effectiveness of Fiscal Policy .......................................................... 7 2.6 High Appreciation of the Yen in the Mid-1990s .............................................. 8 2.7 Banking Crisis of 1998 ................................................................................... 9 2.8 Japan’s Ineffective Monetary Policy ............................................................... 9 3. Comparison of the Economic Collapse in Japan and Greece .................................. 10 4. Empirical Analysis.................................................................................................... 12 4.1 Empirical Model ........................................................................................... 12 4.2 Unit Root Test .............................................................................................. 12 4.3 Empirical Results ......................................................................................... 13 5. Remedies for Stimulating Growth in Japan .............................................................. 15 5.1 Reforms to Combat the Issues of an Aging Population ................................ 15 5.2 Reduction of Transfers from Central to Local Governments ......................... 15 5.3 Reform of the Agriculture Sector .................................................................. 15 5.4 Diversification of Households’ Asset Allocation ............................................ 17 5.5 Switching Asset Allocation Pension Funds and Insurance Companies from Pay-As-You-Go to 401(k)-Style .................................................................... 20 5.6 Review of Asset Management Fees ............................................................. 21 5.7 Use of Home Town Investment Trust Funds to Finance Riskier Businesses 21 5.8 Optimal Mix of Public and Private Funds ...................................................... 23 5.9 Review of Monetary Policy Goals ................................................................. 24 5.10 Diversification of the Energy Basket ............................................................. 25 6. Concluding Remarks ............................................................................................... 26 References ......................................................................................................................... 28 ADBI Working Paper 521 Yoshino and Taghizadeh-Hesary 1. INTRODUCTION In the early 1990s, Japan’s real estate and stock market bubble burst and the economy went into a tailspin. Since then, Japan has suffered sluggish economic growth and recessions (known as “Japan’s Lost Decade”). Japan’s growth rate during this period has been among the lowest of the major developed countries of the world. During 1995–2002, for example, the annualized growth rate of Japan’s real gross domestic product (GDP) averaged only 1.2%. This was lower than the eurozone average of 2.7%, and was less than the other Group of 7 countries: Canada (3.4%), France (2.3%), Germany (1.4%), Italy (1.8%), the United Kingdom (2.7%), and the United States (US) (3.2%). Japan’s performance was also poor in comparison to the 2.7% average of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), and was significantly less than that of the larger OECD countries: Australia (3.8%), the Republic of Korea (5.3%), Mexico (2.6%) the Netherlands (2.9%), and Spain (3.3%) (Horioka 2006). Figure 1 shows the trend of Japan’s real GDP and the real GDP growth rate during 1990–2013. After Japan’s economic bubble burst in the early 1990s Japanese real GDP started to decline sharply. This long-term recession lasted almost 25 years. Figure 1: Japanese Gross Domestic Product Trends, 1990–2014 180 6 170 4 160 2 0 150 -2 140 % -4 130 -6 Real GDP (Index) 120 -8 110 -10 100 -12 1990Q1 1990Q4 1991Q3 1992Q2 1993Q1 1993Q4 1994Q3 1995Q2 1996Q1 1996Q4 1997Q3 1998Q2 1999Q1 1999Q4 2000Q3 2001Q2 2002Q1 2002Q4 2003Q3 2004Q2 2005Q1 2005Q4 2006Q3 2007Q2 2008Q1 2008Q4 2009Q3 2010Q2 2011Q1 2011Q4 2012Q3 2013Q2 2014Q1 2014Q4 GDP (real) GDP (real) growthrate GDP = gross domestic product. Note: Japan’s GDP deflator was used to calculate Japan’s real GDP. Real GDP is seasonally adjusted using the X-12 quarterly seasonal adjustment method. Source: Nikkei Economic Electronic Database System (NEEDS) (2014). It is crucial for the People’s Republic of China (PRC), countries in Europe, and the US to study the causes of, and remedies for, Japan’s long-term recession and low growth rates to prevent it happening to them. Economists, such as Paul Krugman, have argued that Japan’s recession has happened because the country is in a liquidity trap, where monetary policy is ineffective in lowering interest rates. However, analysis in this paper indicates that the problems of the Japanese economy stem from other sources. Theoretical and empirical results shows that stagnation of the Japanese economy comes from a vertical IS curve rather than a liquidity trap. This means problems stem from structural issues rather than a temporary downturn. There are several reasons for this long-term stagnation. The main, greatly underestimated, reason is Japan’s aging population. Japan has the highest life expectancy in the world, but the mandatory 3 ADBI Working Paper 521 Yoshino and Taghizadeh-Hesary retirement age is still 65 years old.1 The number