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East of Eden: the Place of Poland in the Little Divergence Debate

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East of Eden: the Place of Poland in the Little Divergence Debate East of Eden: The Place of Poland in The Little Divergence Debate Polen in het debat omtrent de ‘Kleine Divergentie’ (met een samenvatting in het Nederlands) Proefschrift ter verkrijging van de graad van doctor aan de Universiteit Utrecht op gezag van de rector magnificus, prof.dr. G.J. van der Zwaan, ingevolge het besluit van het college voor promoties in het openbaar te verdedigen op dinsdag 21 juni 2016 des ochtends te 10.30 uur door Mikołaj Malinowski geboren op 21 juni 1987 te Warschau, Polen Promotoren: Prof.dr. Jan Luiten van Zanden Prof.dr. Michał Kopczyński -2- Contents Chapter 1: Introduction ......................................................................................... 6 1. Overview ............................................................................................................................ 6 2. Identification of The Little Divergence .............................................................................. 9 2.1. Wages .......................................................................................................................... 9 2.2. Gross Domestic Product per capita ........................................................................... 14 2.3. Market conditions ...................................................................................................... 19 3. Explanation of The Little Divergence .............................................................................. 20 3.1. Rise of the North Sea region...................................................................................... 20 3.2. Stagnation of Poland .................................................................................................. 23 4. Objectives ......................................................................................................................... 27 5. Methodologies .................................................................................................................. 29 5.1. Real Wages ................................................................................................................ 29 5.2. GDP ........................................................................................................................... 30 5.3. Market conditions ...................................................................................................... 31 5.4. Serfdom ..................................................................................................................... 32 6. Sources ............................................................................................................................. 33 7. Results .............................................................................................................................. 36 8. Future Research ................................................................................................................ 38 Chapter 2: Little Divergence revisited: Polish weighted real wages in a European perspective, 1500-1800 ....................................................................................... 47 1. Introduction ...................................................................................................................... 48 2. The ‘bare-bones basket’ ................................................................................................... 50 3. Sources ............................................................................................................................. 51 4. Nominal costs of living .................................................................................................... 52 5. Wages in the urban sector ................................................................................................ 54 6. Wages in the agricultural sector ....................................................................................... 63 7. Wages weighted by occupational structures .................................................................... 66 8. Conclusion ........................................................................................................................ 72 -3- References ............................................................................................................................ 74 Appendix 1: Data standardisation and estimation ................................................................ 77 Appendix 2: Time series of Polish national real wages ....................................................... 83 Chapter 3: Income and its distribution in preindustrial Poland .......................... 84 1. Introduction ...................................................................................................................... 85 2. Hypotheses ....................................................................................................................... 87 3. Social table in the Voivodeship of Cracow in 1578 ......................................................... 90 3.1. Income of king, nobility, and clergy.......................................................................... 94 3.2. Income of tenant farmers ........................................................................................... 96 3.3. Income of agricultural workers .................................................................................. 97 3.4. Income of masters, unskilled artisans in the cities, and artisans in the rural areas .... 98 3.5. Income of servants in the cities ................................................................................. 98 3.6. Income of servants in the countryside ....................................................................... 98 3.7. Income of beggars ..................................................................................................... 98 3.8. Income of merchants in Cracow and other merchants .............................................. 99 4. Income inequality in 1578 .............................................................................................. 101 5. Gross Domestic Product ................................................................................................. 104 6. Conclusion ...................................................................................................................... 115 References .......................................................................................................................... 116 Chapter 4: Market conditions in preindustrial Poland, 1500-1772 .................. 120 1. Introduction .................................................................................................................... 121 2. Methodology .................................................................................................................. 122 3. Two datasets ................................................................................................................... 126 4. Trends in market conditions in the Polish rye market .................................................... 131 5. Hypotheses regarding the possible causes of the protracted market crisis .................... 138 6. Conclusion ...................................................................................................................... 142 References .......................................................................................................................... 143 -4- Chapter 5: Serfs and the city: market conditions, surplus extraction institutions, and urban growth in early modern Poland ........................................................ 146 1. Introduction .................................................................................................................... 147 2. Debate on serfdom ......................................................................................................... 149 3. Serfdom in early modern Poland .................................................................................... 152 4. Hypothesis ...................................................................................................................... 157 5. Empirical model ............................................................................................................. 159 6. Empirical analysis .......................................................................................................... 167 7. Conclusion ...................................................................................................................... 174 References .......................................................................................................................... 176 Appendix 1: The mechanism.............................................................................................. 178 Appendix 2: Data on regional price gap as a proxy of market conditions ......................... 187 Appendix 3: Newly collected city-specific dataset ............................................................ 191 List of figures .................................................................................................... 204 List of tables ...................................................................................................... 206 Summary in Dutch (samenwatting) .................................................................. 208 -5- Chapter 1: Introduction 1. Overview Why are some countries rich whereas others remain poor? What are the origins of the exemplary economic development of North-Western
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