Maharashtra Rural Connectivity Improvement Project: Climate Risk
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Maharashtra Rural Connectivity Improvement Project (RRP IND 52328) CLIMATE RISK AND VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT (CRVA) FOR THE RURAL ROADS IN MAHARASHTRA I. INTRODUCTION A. Background 1. The climate vulnerability of the rural roads to be improved under the proposed project is a function of climate change potential impact and the adaptive capacity of the Maharashtra Rural Road Development Association (MRRDA). The assessment of climate change potential impact is very much similar to environmental assessment requiring the definition of effects in terms of intensity, duration, and scope. The World Bank (2015)1 provides a more succinct definition in the context of transport which requires the assessment of exposure and sensitivity of rural roads of climate change to define the climate risk. In turn, the exposure to climate change is determined by the type, magnitude, timing, and speed of climate events and variation (Fay, Ebinger, and Block, 2010) while the climate sensitivity of rural roads is determined by structural design and location. However, potential impacts do not necessarily translate into actual impacts based on exposure and sensitivity. The adaptive capacity-defined here as the availability of resources to MRRDA for coping with impacts and minimizing damage, is an important factor on how potential becomes actual impacts. 2. The potential impacts of climate change to roads in general and rural roads are particularly well known. The increase in sea level rise and storm surge can damage or temporarily cut access through coastal roads. The increase in rainfall and rainfall intensity can overwhelm cross drains which can result to localized flooding, road embankment slope failures, traffic disruption, and washout of road sections. What is less known are the impacts of slow onset climate change like the gradual increase in air temperature and its impact of premature rutting and fatigue cracking during a typical 20-year economic life. Gudipudi, Padmini & Underwood, Shane & Zalghout, Ali. (2017)2 evaluated pavement distresses using historical and climate projections3 and AASHTOWare Pavement ME software indicated that projected increase in temperature will results to an increase from 2–9% for fatigue cracking and 9–40% for asphalt concrete rutting at the end of 20 years across all climatic zones. Kumlai, S., Jitsangiam, P. & Pichayapan, P. (2017)4 had similar findings on the effect of temperature increase to asphalt pavement. Their study assessed the effect of predicted increase in temperature to the dynamic moduli to express the viscoelasticity of asphalt concrete across a range of temperatures and frequencies. Using a 20- year temperature and climatic records which coincides with the economic life of typical rural road asphalt pavement for different pavement designs, the examination showed that an increase in temperature due to climate change will result to a shorter pavement life of around four years. 3. MJM Alam and M. Zakaria (undated)5 studied the extent of damage to road pavement structure due to prolonged flood submergence in Bangladesh. The assessment focused on asphalt concrete and tested for California Bearing Ratio for sub-grade and Marshall Stability and Flow for surface layer under 4, 7, 30 and 45 days of submergence. The study concluded that a 1 J.O.Ebinger and N. Vandycke. 2015. Vulnerability of Transport Systems to Climate Risks. 2 Impact of climate change on pavement structural performance in the United States. Transportation Research Part Transport and Environment. 57. 172–184. 10.1016/j.trd.2017.09.022. 3 Climate data from both an ensemble of 19 different climate models at both RCP8.5 and RCP4.5 as well as three individual prediction models at the same Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) levels. 4 Kumlai, S., Jitsangiam, P. & Pichayapan, P. 2017. KSCE Journal of Civil Engineering. Volume 21: pp 1222. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12205-016-1080-6 5 MJM Alam and M Zakaria. ”Design and Construction of Roads in Flood Affected Areas.” Department of Engineering, BUET. 2 rural road inundation for 45 days will reduce its unit weight to 4.6%, 5.8% and 10.6% for compaction efforts of 56, 35 and 10 blows, respectively, and California Bearing Ratio reductions of 16.7%, 29.6% and 37.5%, respectively. For the surface layer, stability and flow of flexible pavement is affected by the duration of inundation. An inundation of 30 days causes the flow value to increase by about 93% and stability reduction by 26%. The study also indicated that that the longer the period of inundation of the asphalt concrete pavement, the more severe will be the deterioration although the rate of destruction may decrease. B. Background of the Maharashtra Rural Connectivity Improvement Project 4. Maharashtra is India’s leading state in terms of its contribution to the national economy. In 2016–2017 Maharashtra accounted for 14.8% of India’s national gross domestic product (GDP).6 Maharashtra is also India’s second most populous state with an estimated population of 112 million (9.2% of the national population) and third largest in land area with 308,000 square kilometers (9.4% of the total land area). The state’s economy is driven by the service and industry sectors which accounted for 61% and 28% of the state’s Gross State Domestic Product in 2016– 2017. The Agriculture sector’s contribution to the economy has diminished over time from 21% in 1990–1991 down to 11% in 2016–2017. Agriculture and allied services accounts for 47% of employment overall but engages as much as 79% of the rural population. The agriculture sector is shifting towards high value commercial horticulture crops such as grapes, oranges and mangoes which requires a network or rural roads to allow effective transport of products to market centers. 5. Maharashtra has a road network of 303,000 kilometers (km), of which 67% are rural roads. Roads are the dominant mode of transportation, utilized by over 80% of passengers and 60% of freight traffic. However long-term underinvestment has affected all levels of the road network, and the rural road network is in the worst condition. In rural areas, many villages still rely on earthen tracks, which are unsuitable for motorized traffic and can easily become impassable during the rainy season. Poor road infrastructure affects economic growth in rural areas, agricultural productivity, and employment, and has a strong link to poverty. Greater investment in Maharashtra’s rural infrastructure is required to boost the agriculture sector and improve the livelihoods and living standards of the state’s rural population. 6. The state government recognizes the importance of rural connectivity in vitalizing rural livelihoods and addressing poverty alleviation. In 2000, the Government of India launched the Pradhan Mantri Gram Sadak Yojana (PMGSY)7 with the primary objective of providing connectivity by way of all-weather roads to eligible unconnected habitations in the rural areas. Under the PMGSY, the state government has completed upgrading of around 25,600 km of roads connecting 8,315 habitations by 2018.8 Following the PMGSY model, the state government initiated the Mukhya Mantri Gram Sadak Yojana (MMGSY) program to connect villages in remote rural areas that had not yet been reached by PMGSY, and to improve existing roads not covered under PMGSY. The MMGSY was launched in 2015–16 and aims to cover 30,000 km of rural roads over 5 years. By January 2019, the state had completed upgrading around 7,000 km under the MMGSY. 7. The proposed project takes a major slice of the MMGSY program and will have two components, these are: 6 Government of Maharashtra, Directorate of Economics and Statistics Economic. March 2018. Survey of Maharashtra 2017–2018. Mumbai 7 Prime Minister's Rural Roads Scheme. Program website is published at http:/www.pmgsy.nic.in/ 8 A nationwide program in India to provide good all-weather road connectivity to unconnected villages. 3 (i) Improvement of 2,100 km of priority rural roads to all-weather standards with climate resilience, gender-inclusive, and road safety features, and (ii) Development of the MRRDA’s capacity on road asset management, 8. The succeeding Table and Figure presents the distribution of locations of the rural roads. Table 1: Distribution of Rural Roads Proposed to be Improved Under Maharashtra Rural Connectivity Improvement Project Sr. Region/ District No of No of Length of Sr. Region/ District No of No of Length of No. Packages Roads road No Packages Roads road proposed proposed (Km) (Km) 1 Akola 6 22 91.2 1 Bhandara 5 10 70.18 2 Amravati 6 28 79.1 2 Chandrapur 6 13 72.82 3 Buldana 6 28 78.9 3 Gadchiroli 6 16 80.6 4 Washim 3 15 69 4 Gondia 5 21 82.6 5 Yavatmal 6 23 86.4 5 Nagpur 8 26 111.99 Amaravati Region 27 116 404.6 6 Wardha 5 13 65.05 1 Aurangabad 4 14 66.6 Nagpur Region 35 99 348.64 2 Beed 6 28 99.2 1 Ahmednagar 9 46 111.175 3 Hingoli 4 19 79.94 2 Dhule 6 18 81.75 4 Jalna 7 23 92.95 3 Jalgaon 6 24 70.595 5 Latur 6 23 69.49 4 Nandurbar 5 20 82.8 6 Nanded 7 30 81.56 5 Nashik 7 23 87.57 7 Osmanabad 5 26 77.44 Nashik Region 33 131 433.89 8 Parbhani 7 23 60.8 1 Pune 7 41 99.7 Aurangabad Region 46 186 627.98 2 Sangli 5 27 67.1 1 Palghar 4 22 39.27 3 Satara 6 23 71.5 2 Raigad 4 20 54.789 4 Solapur 9 36 94.2 3 Ratnagiri 5 35 81.2 5 Kolhapur 6 28 51.3 4 Sindhudurg 5 20 67.55 Pune Region 33 155 383.8 5 Thane 4 15 60.25 Konkan Region 22 112 303.059 Maharashtra 196 799 2118.169 4 Figure 1: Location of Proposed Rural Roads under the Maharashtra Rural Roads Connectivity Project (shown in red lines) C.