Deutscher Wetterdienst Annual Report 2016 2
The reference for meteorology is the Deutscher Wetterdienst
Virtually everyone is interested in the In its role as a National Meteorological weather and virtually every area of our Service, the DWD is also a provider lives is affected by weather and climate. of scientific and technical services and a As the reference for meteorology in competent and reliable partner for public the Federal Republic of Germany the and private partners in the field of me- Deutscher Wetterdienst (DWD) is the teorology. The increasing demands of its competent contact point for all these customers not only oblige the DWD to important tasks, such as the provision issues. The range of tasks is many and supply highquality products and services, of services to the Federation, the Länder, varied. It records, analyses and monitors but also are a continuous incentive to and the institutions administering the physical and chemical processes improve product quality, customer orien- The DWD, which was founded in 1952, justice, as well as the fulfilment of inter- in our atmosphere. The DWD holds infor- tation, and profitability. is, as the National Meteorological Service national commitments entered into by mation on all meteorological occurrences, of the Federal Republic of Germany, the Federal Republic of Germany. The offers a diverse range of services, both responsible for providing services for the DWD thus co-ordinates the meteoro- for the general public and for special protection of life and property in the logical interests of Germany on a nation- user groups and operates the national form of weather and climate information. al level in close agreement with the climate archive. This is its core task. Acting as a federal Federal Government and represents the authority under the department of the Government in intergovernmental and Federal Ministry of Transport and Digital international organisations as, for ex- Infrastructure (BMVI), the DWD assures ample the World Meteorological Organiza- the meteorological safeguarding of avi- tion (WMO). These tasks are embodied in ation and marine shipping and issues the Law on the Deutscher Wetterdienst warnings of meteorological events that from 10 September 1998. could endanger public safety and order. The DWD, however, also has other 2016 Table of contents
Table of contents 3
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Four times fifty years The President’s Opening Remarks 4
Weather & Climate 2016 5
Developments & Events 18
Measuring & Observing Networks 33
Global Co-operation & International Projects 36
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The pictures at the beginning of each chapter Facts & Figures 45 were taken on the occasion of the four 50-year anniversaries celebrated in 2016: first reception of meteorological satellite data, beginning of Executive Board & Organisation 50 numerical weather prediction, beginning of ozone sounding and start into high-performance computing. Contact & Imprint 56 2016 The President’s Opening Remarks
Dear Reader, 4
Welcome to the Deutscher Wetterdienst’s Annual Report for 2016.
In fact, the year 2016 does not rank among the top 10 warmest years on record since systematic, representative measurements began in Germany in 1881. But at an average temperature of 9.5 °C, it was still 1.3 degrees warmer than the long- term average of 8.2 °C for the international reference period 1961 – 1990. Many of you will not have forgotten the heavy rain events from the end of May through to early June when unprecedented flash floods battered the places Braunsbach and Simbach am Inn and several people lost their lives. The chapter ‘Weather & Climate’ includes a detailed report about these long two weeks – during which the DWD ...... issued about 3,000 warnings. Prof. Dr Gerhard Climatologically, such events occur less than once in 100 years. But it appeared from Adrian, President of what happened that heavy rain is a rather underestimated natural hazard. As we so that, for instance, today’s 7-day forecasts are more the Deutscher Wetter- know global warming increases the atmosphere’s capacity to absorb water vapour. accurate than any of the 1-day forecasts in 1970. More infor- As a result of this, convective heavy rain events can occur more frequently. dienst. mation about the four anniversaries can be found in the chapter ‘Developments & Events’. Another important date to The precise warning of small-scale, localised weather hazards poses a significant remember, also in 1966, is 2 November, when ozone sounding was started at the challenge to weather forecasting. This is why the introduction of our new warning DWD’s Hohenpeissenberg Meteorological Observatory. With the long-term series management scheme in 2016 was such an important step. Instead of the previous of data collected there since then, the DWD contributes vitally to the research activ- rural-district scale, the warning of hazardous weather, which is one of the DWD’s ities examining changes in the atmosphere and, through this, to informed political key statutory tasks, now takes place by municipality/community, i. e. at the local decision-making. level. This, for example, enables civil protection agencies to better co-ordinate their response teams and makes it possible to warn the public more precisely. Achieving all this and the many other developments described in this report was only possible thanks to the DWD’s highly dedicated staff team. Let me take the The more detailed, locally more precise warnings are the result of improved weather opportunity to express my highest praise and recognition for their outstanding com- prediction models, a much larger availability of observation data (especially satellite mitment. and radar data) and the increased capacity of our high-performance computer. But this is not the end of development and the DWD has already set out on one of its Dear readers, I hope that I could give you a first short insight into the DWD and that most momentous strategic projects: the establishment of a so-called integrated fore- you will enjoy finding out more about Germany’s national meteorological service. casting system named SINFONY, which stands for seamless forecasts for zero to I invite you to click and browse through our Annual Report for 2016 – and wish you a twelve hours ahead. pleasant reading.
All this progress is not unfounded: 1966 saw the first reception of meteorological satellite data in Germany, the first numerical weather prediction models became operational and the same year also marked the DWD’s start into high-performance computing. These developments have revolutionised meteorology. During the Yours sincerely, 50 years since then, the quality of weather forecasting has improved significantly Gerhard Adrian ...... 5 Weather & Climate 2016 50 years of reception of data from meteorological satellites
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1 2
ESSA 4 satellite image of 17 March 1967, Meteosat 10 satellite image of 22 February 2016,
10:56 UTC, visible range, height in orbit: 10:15 UTC: this composite image of infrared
1,440 km. The image shows Finland, northern and visible range data is used as the basis for
Norway, northern Sweden, the ice-covered satellite imagery in the DWD’s WarnWetter app.
Gulf of Bothnia (top right),Iceland (middle left) // Source: DWD
and the British Isles (bottom middle).
// Source: DWD 2016 Weather & Climate 2016
At the beginning of 2016, in January and February, precipitation totals far higher than 6 average finally put an end to the great drought that had prevailed in Germany since With temperatures of 1.3 degrees above 2015, particularly in southern and central Germany. Whereas during April in previous normal, 2016 in Germany was much too warm years the country had often basked in the temperatures typical for early summer, April 2016 saw a cold snap during the last ten days of the month with snow falling even in lowland areas. The end of May and June brought severe thunderstorms with ex- At 1.3 degrees above normal, 2016 was much too warm treme amounts of rain, which caused catastrophic flooding in some places. This led to in Germany, but there were no new temperature records the result that by the end of the first six months of 2016, numerous DWD stations had recorded more precipitation than they did during the whole of 2015. But then the as in 2014 and 2015, when record averages of 10.3 and general weather pattern changed: during the months that followed some periods 9.9 degrees Celsius (°C), respectively, were measured. The were much too dry and, from July onwards, there were several heatwaves. September was among the three warmest September months since records first began in 1881, year was normal in terms of precipitation and sunshine whereas October and November were too cool. Although December was much colder duration. than in 2015, there was just as little snow.
...... 2016 Weather & Climate 2016
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At 37.1 °C, Neunkirchen-Wellesweiler saw the hottest In spite of ample rain during the first half of the year, temperature in 2016 2016 was too dry
At 9.5 °C, the temperature in 2016 was 1.3 degrees warmer than the average of With 733 litres per square metre (l/m²), precipitation in 2016 only reached 93 per cent 8.2 °C during the international reference period 1961 – 1990. With reference to of the normal precipitation total of 789 l/m² that is typical for Germany. This made the warmer comparative period 1981 – 2010, the deviation was +0.7 degrees. Thus, 2016 the sixth year in succession when it was too dry. Most precipitation fell between 2016 was not among the warmest ten years since 1881. The mercury climbed the end of May and the end of June, which was a period with an unusually large num- to its highest level on 27 August when the temperature of 37.1 °C was recorded in ber of severe thunderstorms. At 150.7 l/m², the highest daily amount fell on 23 June in Neunkirchen-Wellesweiler. At –23.5 °C, Oberstdorf reported the coldest night on Gross Berssen. The wettest region was the northern Black Forest, where some places 18 January. received over 2,000 l/m². The driest area was the northern and eastern foothills of the Harz Mountains, where rainfall in some areas was less than 360 l/m². The deepest covering of snow was 63 cm on 18 January in Reit im Winkl.
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Normal sunshine values marginally exceeded
At around 1,607 hours, there was only slightly more sunshine in 2016 than the long-term average of 1,544 hours. Most sunshine (almost 2,000 hours) was recorded on the Island of Rügen. The area with the least sunshine was the Sauerland, with barely 1,360 hours in some places.
Annual satellite film for 2016 // Source: DWD 2016 Weather & Climate 2016
...... 8 Severe weather series during early summer 2016: heavy rain, flash flooding and a tornado
The early summer of 2016 is certainly something which Germany’s emergency responders (fire brigades, the German technical relief agency Technisches Hilfswerk (THW), emergency doctors, police, etc.) and the flood protection units at the environment offices and agencies Precipitation totals for the first period of severe weather as measured by the DWD’s of the federal states will not forget so quickly. ground-based observation network (left) and derived from the quantitative analyses of DWD
weather radar and ground-based observation data (right). // Source: DWD
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From 26 May through to 8 June and again from 17 June to 28 June, two major periods This period posed a considerable challenge to the Deutscher Wetterdienst. of repeated severe weather with heavy rain, severe gale-force winds and hail swept The task was to alert the public by issuing forecasts and weather warnings as precise across the whole of Germany except the north-east, leaving huge damage behind. as possible, supply the concerned federal state offices and agencies with robust Everyone will remember Braunsbach and Schwäbisch Gmünd in Baden-Württemberg hydrometeorological information and, based on quantitative reliable analyses of the and Simbach in Lower Bavaria – the three places which were most terribly hit by the rain events such as those that hit Braunsbach and the damage they caused, provide a devastating floods following the heavy rains that had fallen. Germany-wide, 11 deaths rapid climatological assessment. Extensive description of the hydrometeorological were reported. Disaster alerts were triggered in several rural districts in Baden- conditions and the associated damage makes it possible to draw the necessary – and Württemberg and Bavaria. In addition, on 7 June 2016 the city of Hamburg was struck also long-term – conclusions for flood protection and climate adaptation measures. by a tornado, which completed the range of severe weather events resulting from such situations of strong convection. 2016 Weather & Climate 2016
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1-hour precipitation totals during the flash flooding in Braunsbach (Baden-Württemberg). Rainfall radar (precipitation scan) and lightning, 18 UTC, 29 May 2016. // Source: DWD
// Source: DWD
What actually happened? Synoptic evolution of the large-scale weather situation in detail
During the period from 26 May into the first weeks of June, central Europe was On 25 May, an omega-shaped constellation of upper-level low pressure systems almost uninterruptedly under the influence of precipitation-prone low pressure sys- formed over central Europe, with large low-pressure areas over the Azores and south- tems. From 23 May to 4 June, the weather was governed by the large-scale ‘Central eastern Europe and slightly higher geopotential in the area in between. Their equiva- European Low’ (Tief Mitteleuropa) circulation pattern on 10 out of 14 days and seven lents down on the surface were the low pressure areas ELVIRA over the near Atlantic consecutive days. Such conditions were unprecedented since nationwide weather and DOROTHEE and CHRISSY, which were centred over south Finland and the Black records began in 1881. During this situation, warm, humid air came in from the south Sea, respectively. The atmospheric pressure differences that prevailed over central (Mediterranean) and the east (Black Sea). An unstably layered air mass formed over Europe were only weak and no stable high pressure system could develop during the Germany. At the same time, the tropopause was very high, and with this, there was next days. So-called short-wave troughs, on the contrary, which lay in a north-easterly the possibility for deep convection to develop. In addition, the two steering low direction between the eastern Atlantic upper-level low and the flat ridge extending pressure systems ELVIRA and FRIEDERIKE were often centred mainly over the south- over central Europe, led to an uplift and a slight decrease in surface air pressure. west with correspondingly weak winds, which caused the severe weather areas to Following this, a shallow trough of low pressure areas spread from France into south- move on only very slowly or not at all. ern Germany. 2016 Weather & Climate 2016
...... 10 Flash flooding in Braunsbach: events of 29 May 2016
The first thunderstorm that day began to develop at around 11:00 CEST
on the northern edge of the Ore Mountains. It rapidly increased in
strength and remained there quasi-stationary for about two hours due
to the continuous formation of new thunderstorms.
24-hour radar-derived precipitation totals up to 06 UTC, 30 May 2016, (left) and corresponding Precipitation amounts of 22 and 25 l/m² measured within only one hour at the two return period (right). // Source: DWD stations of Stützengrün-Hundshübel and Aue, respectively, were early hints of the severe potential of this weather. At around 14:00 CEST, thunderstorms also began to ...... develop in a rain area over the Swabian Alb and in the Allgäu. At around 15:00 CEST, This trough was filled with warm, humid air of potentially unstable stratifica- the thunderstorms grew rapidly stronger and a little later more single cells also tion. The situation was furthermore characterised by high, but not unusual potentials developed on the eastern edge of the Alps, along the Bavarian Forest, in the Frankish for precipitation amounts up to 25 – 30 mm. A pronounced short-wave trough reached Alb region and in the Hohenlohe area (including Braunsbach). During the late after- into the area until 29 May, swinging in a wide curve over the Iberian Peninsula and noon and evening, the thunderstorms merged into one large mesoscale convective the western Mediterranean towards the west Alps. The strong uplift effects caused by system (MCS), the core of which moved along Baden-Württemberg’s border towards this led to a further decrease in the surface air pressure over western and central the north and west. At its eastern edge, a line of thunderstorms extended as far Europe. as the Bavarian-Czech border.
Then, but not until the middle of the first ten days of June, a fairly strong Owing to the surface low moving from Lower Bavaria first north, then west- north-westerly flow began to develop in the frontal zone area over Scandinavia and wards, the MCS was fed from the south-east and east in a large bow with warm, humid stretching as far as the Baltic States. This finally brought cooler, but more importantly and thus energy-loaded air. Later, cold air advection on the southern flank stabilised much drier air from the north, and thus the end of this period of severe weather that the system considerably from the west, but with partly heavy rain continuing to fall had lasted more than two weeks. over a longer period of time at the ‘cold edge’. 2016 Weather & Climate 2016
The hourly precipitation amounts were immense, exceeding the severe Due to the heavy rains, especially brooks and small rivers rapidly reached 11 weather threshold of 25 l/m² within one hour at many DWD stations. The most out- the limits of their flood capacity. Some of them reached new record water levels, such standing totals were 53 l/m² at Hohenpeissenberg between 18:00 and 19:00 CEST, as the Umlach river in Ummendorf and the Rottum river in Laupheim. As a conse- 57 and 65 l/m² at Landshut-Reithof and its neighbour Hohenthann two hours later and quence of this, the region’s larger rivers, such as the Kocher and Jagst rivers, also saw 50 l/m² at Gundelsheim in the rural district of Heilbronn between midnight and their water levels rise, partly by several metres. 01:00 CEST on 30 May. The torrential rains also brought most disastrous floods to the little community At 122 l/m² until 06:00 UTC on 30 May, the latter station also recorded the of Braunsbach in the rural district of Schwäbisch Hall. Two smaller feeder brooks for highest 24-hour total. Many other stations registered amounts above 50 l/m² and the the Kocher river, Schlossbach and Orlacher Bach, turned into rushing torrents and radar-based analysis revealed signs of amounts up to 150 l/m² especially in the north- flooded Braunsbach’s centre within no time. Four people lost their lives. The Schwäbisch eastern part of Baden-Württemberg. This means that these areas received nearly Hall district administration estimated the material damage suffered there alone at twice the amount of rainfall they usually get in the whole of May. The return period for 100 million euros. the rainfall amounts resulting from the radar-based data analysis is between 50 and 100 years.
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Flooding in places where no one expected it
Severe weather spread over a wide area in particular during the first period from 26 May to 8 June. However, the individual severe weather storms were localised and nearly stationary. This caused large amounts of heavy convective rain to fall over one and the same area, resulting in highly localised flooding and flash floods even along the smallest brooks. Both the ostensibly accidental occurrence and the limited possibilities of the forecasting of such localised flash floods posed a major challenge to the DWD. The precipitation responsible for all this had been well detected and measured by the DWD’s weather radars.
48-hour radar-derived precipitation totals up to 18 UTC, 2.6.16, (left) and corresponding return period (right). // Source: DWD 2016 Weather & Climate 2016
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Statistical assessment of the heavy rain event in
Simbach compared to record precipitation totals
for Germany (orange) and worldwide (blue).
// Source: DWD
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Climate change and an underestimated If the Simbach precipitation event of June 2016 is put into a global context, natural hazard: heavy rain it appears that the rainfall totals recorded there – leaving aside the devastating damage suffered – still range far below the totals which our atmosphere is capable of In the light of the high damage potential of heavy rain, which demonstrated itself producing. Even if these considerations are limited to the German territory alone, largely during the early summer of 2016, the questions arise as to what role climate there is the theoretical possibility of a daily maximum of 400 mm. Heavy rain as a change plays in this context and what future developments are expected for heavy natural hazard thus tends to be underestimated. As climate change causes the global rain in Germany. Before answering such questions, it is necessary to recognise temperatures to rise, it also increases the atmosphere's capacity to absorb water the extraordinariness of a precipitation event such as the one that hit Simbach in vapour and with it the potential for heavy convective rain events. early June 2016. It appears that only in the close proximity of the city of Simbach the But this increased occurrence of heavy rain events, which is considered as a return period is more than 100 years, i. e. such an event occurs less than once in very probable effect of climate change in the future, coincides with the fact that the 100 years. capacities for adaptation are already very limited even in a highly developed country such as Germany. For this reason, adaptation decisions for the future need to be based on the best possible mapping of the hazards and risks that might result from heavy rain events and flash floods. 2016 Weather & Climate 2016
...... 13 Weather forecasts and warning activities of the DWD during this severe weather period
The weather situation in the early summer of 2016 posed a major challenge to the DWD’s operational forecasting and warning service.
Despite state-of-the-art computing facilities and high-performance forecasting models and ensembles, it is still not possible to forecast such small-scale, rapidly developing heavy rain or thunderstorm cells with such accuracy that it allows to issue timely warnings only Warning map for Germany for the afternoon Section of warning map for 29 May 2016: for those locations that will actually be concerned. of 29 May 2016. // Source: DWD severe weather situation in Baden-Württemberg and Bavaria. // Source: DWD
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It is therefore of great importance that regular co-ordination takes place between develop very rapidly. During the severe weather period of May / June 2016, far more the DWD’s experts, which they do twice a day in conference calls. Following these, the than 1,000 weather warnings were issued, which made it one of the most warning- risk potential of the weather situation and the information which areas will probably intensive periods of the past years in Germany. be concerned are published as part of the DWD’s warning management via so-called In summer 2016, the DWD introduced its local-scaled warning scheme, with severe weather watches (‘Vorabinformation Unwetter’). Severe weather watches are which it is now possible to display the track of the strongest thunderstorms more typically issued during the morning for events expected to occur during the afternoon, precisely on the Internet or in the WarnWetter App without having to warn a whole evening or night. The aim is to allow precautionary measures to be taken, but these rural district. watches do not yet represent a real warning. Only if the situation becomes more concrete and the DWD’s radar data reveal that, and where, the strongest cells are The experience gained from the DWD’s collaboration with the flood forecasting developing and in which direction and at what speed they will be moving, will warnings centres reveals that lead times of less than an hour are too late for their run-off for thunderstorms and heavy rain, significant weather warnings (both shown in ochre) forecasts. Both DWD and the flood forecasting centres, find it a particular challenge to and severe weather warnings (shown in red) be issued. But this is often only possible identify heavy rain cells which do not move on or repeatedly renew themselves and with a lead time of maximally 60 to 15 minutes as single, small-scale cells tend to unload their rain water over one and the same area. 2016 Weather & Climate 2016
In addition to its general operational warning services, the DWD offers 14 customers and the general public the possibility, through its Regional Weather Advis- Exact warning of tornadoes is not possible ory Offices (RWB) operated at each of the Branch Offices, to consult the meteor- ologists and forecasters there about more detailed information on the current weather Tornadoes such as the one in Hamburg on 7 June 2016 globally are the most impact- situation, the uncertainty of the forecasts or an assessment of the further evolution ful weather hazards that may occur. Repeatedly, they also cause multiple fatalities. of the situation. Such information is much needed by fire brigades and emergency In order to save lives and mitigate material damage, information about any risk of tor- organisations as well as by the organisers of large events, and, like in June and May nadoes occurring are included in the DWD’s warning management instruments at an last year, by the flood forecasting centres. During these nearly four weeks, each of early stage. Tornadoes are most common during the summer thunderstorm season. DWD’s three Weather Advisory Offices at Essen, Stuttgart and Munich counted They are very small-scale and often last only for a few minutes. For this reason, exact around 1,000 telephone consultancy calls and at Offenbach headquarters more than warning of tornadoes is generally not possible. 1,000 telephone consultations were given. This underpins how important it is that With horizontal extensions of mostly no more than a few hundred metres, the operational forecasting and warning service is available for phone calls from civil tornadoes are so small that they cannot be detected by the DWD’s weather radars or protection and disaster relief units. by satellite instruments. Even finest-meshed weather forecasting models with reso- lutions of two to three kilometres cannot predict a tornado. Via its Germany-wide weather radar network, the DWD strives to detect swirling thunderstorm clouds, which ...... are known to be a trigger element for tornadoes. The radar data for the whole of Germany are updated every five minutes.
The DWD includes tornado watch notices in its regional severe weather summaries when the weather models show that there is a potential for tornadoes. These summaries are available on the DWD website at www.dwd.de/warnungen and can also be displayed in the DWD’s weather warning app.
Accordingly, the DWD had mentioned in its severe weather summaries of 7 June 2016, 10:30 CEST, that there was a risk of isolated tornadoes occurring in the afternoon and evening in the area of Hamburg and in southern Schleswig-Holstein. Concrete severe weather warnings of severe thunderstorms with localised risks of tornadoes are only issued if the radar data show the corresponding signatures and damage-prone phenomena have reliably been observed in the concerned region.
Warning map for Germany for the afternoon Section of warning map for 1 June 2016: of 1 June 2016. // Source: DWD severe weather situation in east Bavaria.
// Source: DWD 2016 Weather & Climate 2016
...... Given the high significance of visual observations for the warning of 15 tornadoes, the DWD collaborates closely with Skywarn Deutschland e. V. The trained ‘storm chasers’ of this Germany-registered association transmit their observations of severe weather via mobile phones to the DWD. Police forces, fire brigades and emergency and relief units also support the DWD by reporting any severe weather phenomena they have observed. Private citizens can report their observations of severe weather to the DWD via the Internet using a report form available at www.dwd.de/unwettermeldung . These reports are immediately presented to the meteorologists for analysis.
Warning map for Germany for the evening Section of warning map for 7 June 2016:
of 7 June 2016. // Source: DWD severe weather situation in Hamburg.
// Source: DWD
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What are the DWD’s activities in the field of heavy rain? to be reduced further below its current 2.8 km while the number of vertical layers has to be increased. In addition to this, it is necessary to significantly extend the use of The forecasting of small-scale severe weather events (heavy rain events and thun- remote sensing data, especially radar and satellite data, for initial state determination derstorms associated with these) across the 12 hour forecast horizon is going to be for forecast calculations. This will allow the systems to produce new numerical improved as part of the ongoing development of the DWD’s integrated forecasting sys- forecasts every hour for the period which directly (seamlessly) follows on from that tem SINFONY. The aim is to combine the so-called nowcasts (i. e. forecast products for covered by nowcasting forecasts. up to 2 hours ahead with a high temporal refresh rate) with the outputs from a very A particular challenge for SINFONY is the forecasting of heavy thunderstorms short-range ensemble system and further develop these in such a way that it allows to with localised heavy rain which remain stationary over one and the same area for obtain a seamless description of both the state of the atmosphere and the prevailing a longer period of time: because of the spatially limited extent and short life cycle of weather phenomena from the current state up to the very short-range. such cells, their timely detection and simulation is fairly difficult. High risk potential is With a view to enabling explicit numerical simulation of thunderstorm clouds, also inherent in so-called supercells, which are often at the origin of hail, extreme the horizontal mesh width of the DWD’s very short-range forecasting system needs gusts of wind and tornadoes. 2016 Weather & Climate 2016
16 The basis for the integrated forecasting system SINFONY will be a gapless observation of precipitation-relevant weather phenomena. Existing gaps are going to Outlook be closed using additional radar systems known as X-band radars. For the provision of guidance to decision-makers in politics, adminis- In order to ensure that the warning process is supplied in the best possible time with the latest up-to-date information, other solutions for obtaining new near tration and disaster management, it is important to have inform- real-time high-resolution data will be tested. Similar to the above-mentioned transmis- ative maps about heavy rain hazards. Such maps provide essential sion of observations made by storm chasers, work is going on (not only in Germany) to consider the development of a system for the crowd-sourcing of weather observations 1, information for evaluating run-off impacts from heavy rain events and for example via the DWD’s WarnWetter app. The idea is to get the private citizens for helping the general public and emergency responders to plan directly involved in the observation and reporting of dangerous weather events. This is done by making increasing use of modern, digital infrastructures established in self-protection measures. Germany. A first stage could be to use the observations transmitted via these channels for validating, further developing and improving the forecasting systems; later, they could also be used directly for the purposes of operational forecasting 2. This is why in the past years, in addition to its commitment to improving the fore- casts and warnings for heavy rain events, the DWD has also been actively involved In the end, SINFONY is expected to deliver seamless heavy precipitation in improving the base of background information about the risks and hazards of scenarios for forecast periods up to twelve hours ahead. These will allow to estimate heavy rain. The key technologies needed in this context already exist in the form of the risk of localised heavy rain. The resulting data can then be used by the flood the DWD’s network of weather radars and a total of far more than 1,000 fully auto- forecasting centres for flash flood forecasts which also include potential scenarios for matic high-availability ombrometers (rainfall gauges) so far installed in the course of local brook or river catchment areas. This makes it possible to initiate protection the automation of the DWD’s measuring network. It is now possible to run integrated measures at both the rural district and municipal / local levels and provide improved quantitative, RADOLAN-based analyses of precipitation retrospectively across all guidance for action to be taken in the event of severe weather. measurements since 1 January 2001. The resultant radar data-based precipitation climatology is currently being verified by the DWD within the framework of projects run in collaboration with the interested federal and federal state authorities and the German Insurance Association (GDV) to study its usability and usefulness. The results are so promising that, as a next step towards an extreme precipitation 1 Following the successful example of the mPING app of the NOAA’s National Severe Storms Laboratory, climatology (more than 20 years), it is planned to determine flow paths, flash flood this would allow to obtain additional records of weather events (e. g. hail), type of precipitation (rain / snow), damage from wind, flooding, etc. (see mping.nssl.noaa.gov ). A list of the weather reports parameters and inundation areas. Such a Germany-wide information map of potential received via the mPINGApp can be found at http://mping.nssl.noaa.gov/types.php . heavy rain hazards would allow the concerned parties to better focus the use of
2 In contrast to the assimilation of the reports thus achieved, which would only be possible after some limited resources to the ‘hot spot’ areas for an improved efficiency of adaptation to time of testing. the natural hazard of heavy rain. 2016 Weather & Climate 2016
Average tem- Highest temperature Lowest temperature Precipitation Sunshine dur- Memorable facts perature in °C in °C in °C in l / m2 ation in hours (Links lead to the comprehensive press release.)
January 1 (– 0.5) 17.2 – 23.5 77.3 (60.8) 49.4 (43.6) Cold only in the north-east at the beginning of the month; wintry weather on the 26 th in Ohlsbach on the 18 th on the Zugspitze and all over Germany from the middle of the month; mild towards the end of (rural district of Ortenau) in Oberstdorf the month
February 3.3 (0.4) 19.7 – 18 77.8 (49.4) 60.2 (71.5) Low air pressure with much rain and mild temperatures throughout most of on the 22 nd in Rosenheim on the 20 th on the Zugspitze the month; some Rose Monday carnival parades had to be cancelled due to risk of gale-force gusts
March 4 (3.5) 23.8 – 18 45.5 (56.5) 99.1 (111.2) Cool start to the month; mild towards the end; little rainfall in the north and on the 31 st in Rosenheim on the 3 rd on the Zugspitze the south
April 7.9 (7.4) 25.6 – 17.5 53.3 (58.2) 158.6 (153.7) Typical April weather with rapidly alternating spells of sunny and showery we- on the 5 th in Regensburg on the 25 th on the Zugspitze ather, partly as snow
May 13.7 (12.1) 31.4 – 12.3 67.7 (71.1) 219.5 (201.6) Cold snap for the Ice Saints Days; showers and thunderstorms towards the end on the 22 nd in Jena on the 16 th on the Zugspitze of the month, in places with considerable localised flooding (Braunsbach)
June 17 (15.4) 35.8 – 4.4 115.5 (84.6) 190.7 (203.3) Continuation of the weather conditions, with severe showers and thunderstorms on the 24 nd in Jena on the 9 th and 15 th on the Zugspitze (Simbach); short heatwave towards the end of the month
July 18.6 (16.9) 36.4 – 8.1 70 (77.6) 201.3 (210.7) Very dry in the west; high rainfall amounts in eastern parts of Bavaria and the on the 20 th in Bad Kreuznach on the 16 th on the Zugspitze eastern federal states
August 17.7 (16.5) 37.1 – 5.8 46.2 (77.2) 227.2 (199.5) Changeable until the end of the second third of the month; then period of on the 27 th in Neunkirchen-Wellesweiler on the 10 th and 11 th on the Zugspitze intense heat
September 16.9 (13.3) 34.4 – 3.6 39.1 (61.1) 215.2 (149.6) With short interruptions continuation of the summery weather on the 12 th in Bernburg/Saale on the 23 rd on the Zugspitze conditions; warmest September ever, together with 2006
October 8.5 (9) 24.7 – 13.4 57 (55.8) 61.4 (108.5) Slightly too cool over the month as a whole, with high rainfall amounts in the on the 1 st in Dresden-Strehlen on the 5 th on the Zugspitze east and little rainfall in the north-west, west and south
November 3.8 (4) 21.9 – 17 57.3 (66.3) 60.3 (52.8) Cool during the first half and at the end of the month, with interrupting spells on the 21 nd in Rosenheim on the 9 th on the Zugspitze of fairly mild temperatures
December 2.2 (0.8) 15.5 – 15.7 26.5 (70.2) 64.5 (38) Mild after a cool start of the month and at Christmas; cool again, but not wintry on the 8 th in Wernigerode on the 27 th on the Zugspitze towards the end of the month
Winter 3.6 (0.2) 19.7 – 23.5 191.5 (180.7) 174.8 (152.9) Second warmest winter, together with the winters 1974 / 75 and 1989 / 90; very 2015 / 16 on the 22 nd of February in Rosenheim on the 18 th of January on the Zugspitze little snow also at higher altitudes and in Oberstdorf
Spring 8.5 (7.7) 31.4 – 18 166.5 (185.9) 477.2 (466.6) More sunshine, milder and drier than normal on the 22 nd of May in Jena on the 3 rd of March on the Zugspitze
Summer 17.8 (16.3) 37.1 – 8.1 231.7 (239.4) 619.3 (613.5) Overall, a fairly warm, but also fairly changeable summer on the 27 th of August in on the 16 th of July on the Zugspitze Neunkirchen-Wellesweiler
Autumn 9.7 (8.8) 34.4 – 17 153.4 (183.3) 336.9 (310.9) Late summer weather at the beginning, with only a few spells of wintry on the 12 th of September in on the 9 th of November on the weather Bernburg / Saale Zugspitze
Year 9.5 (8.2) 37.1 – 23.5 733.1 (788.9) 1607.4 (1544) Very warm year, which, together with 6 other year, ranks at places on the 27 th of August in on the 18 th of January on the Zugspitze 8 to 14 Neunkirchen-Wellesweiler and in Oberstdorf
The figures in parenthesis indicate the long-term mean values according to the internationally agreed 1961 to 1990 reference period...... 18 Developments & Events 50 years of reception of data from meteorological satellites
3 4
1
......
1 2 – 4
Satellite reception unit and manual application Satellite reception units at the DWD in Offenbach
of latitude and longitude lines onto the satellite from various periods: 1971, 1978 and 2003.
images from 1971. // Source: DWD // Sources: DWD (1971 und 1978); Jörg Asmus
(2003)
2 2016 Developments & Events
19 Four times fifty years: 50 years of data reception from meteorological satellites 50 years of reception of data from meteoro- logical satellites, 50 years of numerical weather Thursday, 3 March 1966, was a big day for the DWD in Offenbach: at 07:12 UTC, routine reception of meteorological satellite data was started in the presence of jour- prediction, 50 years of ozone measurements nalists and press photographers. The images were received from the US American and 50 years of high-performance computing weather satellite ESSA 2, which was orbiting the Earth for the 34 th time since its launch
......
The year 1966 brought a number of meteorologically important events for the DWD: the first reception of images from meteorological satellites, the beginning of the era of numerical weather prediction, the first weather balloon ascent for the 50-year ozone series at Hohen- peissenberg and the installation of the DWD’s first high- performance computer. These milestones created the Such a so-called helical antenna was used at the DWD in Offenbach at the end of the 1960s foundations for vital progress in meteorological research to receive the first satellite images. // Source: DWD in order to better understand the structures and com- position of the atmosphere and improve weather fore- ...... casting capabilities. on 26 February 1966. The Meteorological Service of the former GDR in Kühlungsborn had received its first images on 6 April 1966. During the first years, the images came from satellites like ESSA or Nimbus, which orbited the Earth at an altitude of 800 km to 1,400 km, the same height on which fly today’s METOP satellites. Since 1977, data have also been delivered by geostationary satellites such as METEOSAT. 2016 Developments & Events
...... 20 1 – 3
Installation of the current satellite
reception antenna on the roof of
the DWD’s headquarters in Offenbach
in November 2014.
// Sources: Denise Bergmann (1, 2)
and Jens Popp (3)
1 2 3
......
At first, the satellite images were received at Offenbach and Potsdam in data are a vital complement to those collected via the conventional observing net- analogue mode. Sound signals were translated into light signals, which were then work and are needed for numerical weather prediction forecasts. It is possible with exposed onto photographic paper line by line. In the next step, the latitude and longi- them to give an approximate description of the state of the atmosphere and to tude lines as well as the outlines of the continents were drawn onto the pictures by produce weather forecasts for up to two weeks ahead. Satellite data are also very hand. The digital era began in 1980 with the reception of Meteosat data and the pro- important in climatology. They are used by the EUMETSAT Satellite Application Facility duction of the first projected satellite images, which were printed out in a format that on Climate Monitoring (CM SAF), which is hosted by the DWD, to develop, generate, matched the weather maps. In the mid-1980s, the Meteosat images were put together archive and distribute datasets of geophysical parameters derived from the satellite into satellite loops, which were then sent by courier to the regional broadcasting data. For instance, it is possible to calculate the yields of solar power plants from station Hessischer Rundfunk. There, the films were used for presenting weather fore- the long-term global radiation series. casts in the ARD’s news programme. On the international level, there has now been a close collaboration with The huge progress achieved since then in computing technologies facilitated EUMETSAT for 30 years. EUMETSAT is an intergovernmental European organisation the development of meteorological workstations such as NinJo, which, at the push for the exploitation of meteorological satellites; it is based in Darmstadt, Germany, of a button, allows the meteorologists to display the fully prepared satellite images on with currently 30 Member States throughout Europe. Satellite data delivered by their desktop. In addition to satellite imagery, the meteorological satellites, thanks EUMETSAT’s satellites Meteosat or Metop are used at the DWD for weather monitor- to the numerous instruments they carry, also provide a large variety of data about the ing, numerical weather prediction and climatology. state of the atmosphere, such as temperature, humidity and wind vector data. These 2016 Developments & Events
...... 21 50 years of numerical weather prediction (NWP) at the DWD
The DWD entered the era of numerical weather prediction (NWP) in October 1966 with the introduction of the barotropic one-layer model BTP for simulating the large-scale circulation patterns at around 5 km height. Between 1966 and 2016 and in line with the available computing power, the DWD brought as many as nine model generations into operational service.
The graphic illustrates the improvements achieved in the quality of the DWD’s numerical
weather forecasts for the North Atlantic and central European area since 1968 (the higher the
curve, the better the quality). // Source: DWD
Key features of the DWD’s nine model generations since 1966
...... Year Name Mesh width Grid cell area Description (km) (km2) The different NWP model generations are characterised by increasingly complex physical parametrisations, numerical methods and programming procedures. 1966 BTP 381 145,161 1 layer, barotropic, hemispheric model Progress achieved in data assimilation (better algorithms and use of more data, 1967 BKL 381 145,161 5 layers, baroclinic, hemispheric model mainly those from satellites) also plays an important role for the continuous improve- 1978 BKF 254 64,516 9 layers, including humidity, hemispheric model ment in the skill of forecasts. Very shortly after the DWD had launched numerical
1991 GM 190 36,100 19 layers, spectral global model weather prediction for its operational services, it has also started to calculate the forecast quality on the basis of comparison with the conditions actually observed. For 1999 GME 60 3,114 31 layers, hydrostatic, icosahedral grid the DWD’s main forecast area ‘North Atlantic and Europe’, for example, this revealed a 2004 GME 40 1,384 40 layers continuous improvement in the forecast quality. Looking at the curve, there are three 2010 GME 30 778 60 layers majors leaps of improvement: in 1991 after the introduction of the first global NWP 2012 GME 20 346 60 layers model (Global Modell, GM), in 2004 following the improvements in data assimilation
2015 ICON 13 (6.5) 173 90 layers, non-hydrostatic, with nested model and in 2015/2016 due to the implementation of the new global model, ICON, and its for Europe associated ensemble data assimilation system En-VAR. A 7-day surface pressure fore- cast by ICON from 2016 is of a much better quality than the 1-day forecast from 1968 produced with the baroclinic model (BKL) of the time. 2016 Developments & Events
...... 22
50 years of ozone measurements Time series of the annual mean total ozone at Hohenpeissenberg column measured at Mount Hoher Peissenberg. In addition to the measured values (black dots),
the graphic also shows reconstructed data After extensive testing of different types of ozone and radiosondes, sonde flight about human and natural influence factors No. 138, launched at 10:12 UTC on 2 November 1966, marked the official beginning (grey regression curve). The red trend lines of the 50-year series of ozone sounding at Hohenpeissenberg. The plan at the time (inversed) illustrate the influence of HCFCs was to obtain ozone and temperature profiles in order to allow a better understanding (increase until 1996, then continuing decrease). of the lower stratosphere and the tropopause area, which could be used to improve The other coloured curves show the effects weather forecasts. No one thought of hydrochlorofluorocarbons (HCFCs), ozone de- from the changing wind in the equatorial struction, increasing greenhouse gas concentrations or climate change. In the 1970s, stratosphere (quasi-biennial oscillation, QBO), it was found that long-lived HCFCs from refrigeration and propellants were spreading from the weather situations prevailing over globally, causing the formation of ozone-depleting chlorine in the atmosphere. At first, the North Atlantic (Arctic Oscillation, AO), this had only a small effect on the ozone layer and the impact was limited to heights from major volcanic eruptions such as those around 40 km. Nonetheless, the use of HCFCs in spray cans was forbidden in the USA of El-Chichon in 1983 and Pinatubo in 1991 and as early as 1977. Then, in 1984, the discovery of the ozone hole over the Antarctic and from the sun’s 11-year solar activity cycle. the extreme loss of ozone between 15 and 25 km came as a complete shock – and // Source: DWD called for urgent action! In 1985, the international community of States concluded the Vienna Convention for the Protection of the Ozone Layer. In 1987, it was agreed under the Montreal Protocol to stop the production of HCFCs. One by one, these measures were stepped up and also extended to other ozone-depleting substances.
Long series of ozone measurements, such as the series from Hohenpeissen- berg, clearly show the extent to which HCFCs were responsible for the destruction of ozone between the end of the 1960s and the mid-1990s. However, they also show the achievements of the Montreal Protocol and how it has saved the ozone layer: ...... HCFCs are no longer produced. Since the end of the 1990s, ozone has stopped to decrease; instead, it is slowly increasing again. But it will take a number of decades sphere and stratospheric cooling could also play a role. However, it is only possible before the HCFCs will have disappeared completely from the atmosphere. Full re- to estimate what exactly will happen in the future if accurate measurement series, covery of the ozone layer with values equal to those of the 1960s is not expected until such as those held at the DWD’s meteorological observatories Hohenpeissenberg and the second half of this century. The climate change with its warming of the tropo- Lindenberg, are continued. 2016 Developments & Events
of processors and the total number of cores was increased to nearly 30,000. Thanks 23 to the modular architecture of the HPC systems, interruption of the operational 50 years of supercomputing – upgrade of the service could be limited to only a few hours. Due to the redundant production struc- core production capability at the DWD tures, the changeover remained unnoticed by the customers of the DWD. The two HPC systems rank at places 140 and 141 on the June 2016 edition of the list of the top 500 supercomputers in the world. The DWD’s current high-performance computer has a capacity 450 million times Together with the continuing improvement of the ensemble forecasting higher than that of its first supercomputer from 1966. The main memory of the system, this increase in computing power of around 60 per cent leads to a steady CDC 3800 installed in 1966 had a computing capacity of 128 kilobyte, while the cap- growth in the volume of data streams of both newly produced data and data requiring acity of the current Cray XC40 HPC amounts to 122 terabyte, which is a one-billion-fold further processing. Already today, the forecasting models alone generate a data increase. The one processing unit needed in 1966 is opposed to nearly 30,000 pro- volume of more than twelve terabytes per day. This is why, in parallel to the HPC cessing units today. These figures give a good impression of how high-performance upgrade, the DWD has also enlarged the data management systems supplied by the computing has developed over the time. Japanese NEC Corporation. The ensuing reconstruction was also carried out without The migration of the DWD’s meteorological core production processes any disruption to the operational services. All in all, the disc storage capacity now to the new HPC in May 2014 enabled another increase in the computing capacity available for the core production processes amounts to 13 petabytes, in addition in 2016. to the tape archive system, where a multiple of that data volume can be stored add- itionally. To be able to meet the continuously increasing requirements of numerical weather prediction, the DWD has agreed with the US American computing company The additional computing power will be used to further improve the DWD’s Cray Inc. on an upgrade of the HPC systems operated at the DWD since 2014. Under ensemble forecasting system and refine the spatial and temporal resolution of the the upgrade, the older-generation processors were replaced with the latest types models.
......
First phase of Cray XC40.
// Source: Henning Weber 2016 Developments & Events
...... 24 1 – 3
Quantum leap in meteorological resolution Example of warnings for boroughs of the city
of Berlin // Source: DWD In July 2016, the DWD introduced a new warning manage- ment scheme: instead of issuing warnings for 400 rural districts in Germany, the warnings are now issued for around 10,000 German cities, towns and villages. “With our new local-scaled warning scheme, we are setting new standards and we are up-to-date on what is scientifically 3 and technically possible – also at the international level”, said DWD President Prof. Dr Gerhard Adrian.
......
The new warning system was presented to the public at a press conference in Berlin. The much more refined meteorological resolution down to individual local areas or parts of big cities was considered to be a quantum leap forward for the DWD’s warning system. It was made possible mainly by the increased amount of observation data, improved forecasting models and the more powerful supercomputing centre. The response was therefore enormous: about 50 journalists attended the press conference and nearly all important TV and radio broadcasting stations and daily newspapers reported about the new warning scheme.
1
2 2016 Developments & Events
...... 25
Visitor crowds at the DWD’s press WarnWetter app extended to become conference DWD in Berlin, during which a natural hazard app the new local-scaled warning scheme
was introduced. // Source: Gerhard Lux Lives can be saved and damage prevented if warnings of threatening natural hazards are available anywhere and as early as possible. For this reason, the Deutscher Wetter- dienst (DWD) has extended its WarnWetter app to include avalanche, flood and storm tide warnings.
......
Although there had been no fundamental criticism of the DWD’s warning management since 2003 – neither from policy-makers nor the emergency field teams nor the public – the wish to receive forecasts and warnings with a higher local reso- lution was well justified. Many of the rural districts are much larger in extent than the area affected by the various meteorological events for which the warnings are issued. So it happened fairly often that the DWD’s warnings of thunderstorms for a certain district were correct, although it was clear from the outset that only a part of this district would be affected. This caused the field teams of disaster relief institutions to ask the DWD for a better and better spatial and temporal resolution of the warnings so that they could meet the increasing demands regarding the planning and manage- ment of their operations.
According to Gerhard Adrian, a lead time of twelve or more hours is well feas- ible for large-scale winter storms or for persistent rain events with the risk of flooding Flood warnings // Source: DWD rivers. In the case of summer thunderstorms, however, the forecasters of Germany’s national meteorological service often find it impossible to warn earlier than within half an hour before the event. 2016 Developments & Events
The integration of these warnings into the app was the result of close co-operation In an earlier upgrade of the WarnWetter app in summer 2016, the DWD had 26 between the flood alert portal of the federal states, the Bavarian avalanche warning already added its warnings about regional heat dangers and sunburn risks due to centre and the two federal authorities Federal Maritime and Hydrographic Agency ultraviolet (UV) radiation. By displaying lightning activity in the latest radar images, (BSH) and the DWD. the app now also ensures that users in the affected areas are warned and can there- fore search for appropriate shelter in good time. From now on, the app will provide three levels of avalanche warnings for mountainous areas such as the Bavarian Prealps. The warnings differentiate between mountains and valleys and point out which slopes are at risk. An additional text ex- plains the meaning of the warning and describes the expected changes in the ava- lanche risk until the following day. With regard to storm tide warnings, the app now provides warnings for five different regions (one of which is the Elbe area) along the North and Baltic Sea coasts. Users can choose to receive the warnings as push messages. Last but not least, the WarnWetter app also displays the current flood risk situations in the federal states with the warning levels marked with different colours. When zooming in on a certain gauge station, an evaluation of the current flood ...... situation and the risk of flooding is shown. All these new elements were integrated 1 2 into the app in November 2016. Storm tide warnings // Source: DWD Avalanche warnings // Source: DWD
......
1 2 2016 Developments & Events
...... 27 Seasonal forecasts with the German Climate Forecast System
The Center for Earth System Research and Sustainability (CEN) at Hamburg University, the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology (MPI-M) and the DWD have been jointly developing a forecasting system for the provision of sea- sonal forecasts.
Seasonal forecasting is possible in principle because observations of the so-called Global seasonal forecasts made by GCFS1: the graphic shows the predicted mean anomaly over chaotic behaviour of the climate system reveal some structured patterns that all 30 forecast solutions for summer 2016 (June, July, August), with the forecast start time in result from the interaction among all climate components. For instance, soils, oceans May 2016. The anomalies result from the difference between the current forecasts and the climate and sea ice retain water and heat from the atmosphere, which they release over a average over the years 1981 – 2014. The forecast skill has also been determined for the same longer period of time and partly in different places. They can be seen as the atmos- period. The regions where the predicted mean correlates well with the actual observations are phere’s long-term memory and enable us to predict certain processes on longer shown non-hatched. // Source: DWD timescales.
A system for seasonal forecasts and other climate predictions is very differ- ...... ent from a weather forecasting system. In order to be able to obtain a better descrip- tion of the interactive processes in the climate systems, the atmosphere-land model These forecasts provide predictions of the deviation from climatological has to be coupled with an ocean-sea ice model. For this, the DWD’s new seasonal reference periods (anomaly). To be able to predict an anomaly, i. e. a cold or warm forecasting system named German Climate Forecast System (GCFS) uses the MPI-ESM trend, the system also needs the forecasts of the climatological reference period. The earth system model, developed by the Max-Planck-Institute for Meteorology (MPI-M) large number of such historical forecasts provides a good statistical basis for evalu- mainly for the purpose of climate projection. In order to start the climate model at ating the quality of the predictions. For an evaluation of the predictions’ uncertainty, a current point in time, the atmospheric and oceanic observations are pre-processed each forecast is computed several times, in each case with slight changes in the initial using special methods (data assimilation). state. This so-called ‘ensemble’ method is also used in the production of weather forecasts. 2016 Developments & Events
...... Seasonal forecasts serve as decision aids for long-term planning. At present, 28 the uncertainty due to the model quality is still larger than the natural variability of the climate. This applies mainly but not only to forecasts for Europe. For this reason, Emerging seeds in autumn. the forecasts are marked with a quality flag. Globally, there are already some regions // Source: Hans Richard Henkes where the quality of the forecasts is sufficient to meet the customers’ need for long- term indications. It is therefore important for the users to understand any uncertainty or probability so they can take these into account when making planning decisions.
......
Based on administrative agreements recently concluded with the federal states of Agrometeorology: collaboration with various Saxony and Saxony-Anhalt, the DWD provides these federal states with agrometeoro- federal states and the Federal Ministry of Food logical services to support them when giving advice and consultancy to farmers. The topics of the information services offered range from the ideal timing for applying and Agriculture (BMEL) fertilisers and soil water data through to the risks of infestation by certain pests. All information is included in the new Internet-based agrometeorological consultancy In agriculture, increasing emphasis is put on a sustain- system for the federal states ISABEL. It is the DWD’s aim that the other federal states also join the administrative agreements. able use of our natural environment and resources. The DWD furthermore supports the Federal Ministry of Food and Agricul- Agrometeorological information supports ecologically and ture (BMEL) and the Agricultural Ministries of the federal states by providing them economically sustainable farming by giving advice on with important agrometeorological information which they need, for example, for evaluating agrometeorological extremes or for reviewing the regulations for the use topics such as soil preparation, soil and crop protection, of fertilisers. The latter has become necessary because the European Union has use of fertilisers and climate impact research. pressed charges against the Federal Republic of Germany at the European Court of Justice (ECJ) for alleged weaknesses regarding the protection of groundwater against pollution caused by nitrates. The main cause of this pollution is considered to be agriculture, where organic fertilisers such as slurry lead to overfertilisation. Agro- meteorological information can help to determine the right point in time for applying fertilisers, when soil temperature and humidity are ideal. This helps to reduce pollu- tion from fertilising. 2016 Developments & Events
...... 29
ASDUV_E: the foundation for fully automated At the runway observation weather observations at airports station of Frankfurt Airport: the three screens show
the user interface of the According to articles 27c to 27f of the German Aviation new ASDUV systems as the Act (LuftVG), the Deutscher Wetterdienst is responsible for observers can see it. // Source: Sabine Bork the meteorological safeguarding of civil aviation in Ger- many. The fulfilment of this task includes ensuring that the technical equipment for recording and distributing meteoro- logical data at all 16 international airports in Germany satisfies the users’ requirements, meets the highest stand- ards of quality and uses state-of-the-art technology.
......
Accordingly, the DWD has replaced all of its earlier ASDUV systems for automatic data The replacement of the ASDUV systems carried out under the so-called acquisition and distribution, which had been in operation since the 1990s. ASDUV_E project was successfully completed in April 2016. All aeronautical meteoro- logical stations at the 16 international airports in Germany and all five MET Advisory During the changeover from the old to the new systems, the main challenge Centres of the DWD are now equipped with the new ASDUV systems. The meteoro- was to ensure that data acquisition as well as the generation and distribution of the logical data observed at airports, i. e. the 10-second data telegrams, half-hourly METARs, data telegrams continued without disruption. This was necessary because, depending SPECIs (where necessary), MET reports as well as the so-called Airport Customer on the weather situation, a system interruption could have led to the closure of a Telegrams, are transmitted via the new ASDUV to the DWD headquarters. Some of the runway or an entire airport. data are also directly transmitted to the German air navigation services, the DFS Deutsche Flugsicherung GmbH.
With the completion of ASDUV_E, the foundation has been laid for switching to fully automated weather observations at airports at the beginning of the next decade. 2016 Developments & Events
...... 30
Radioactive selenium-75 in the atmosphere Forward trajectory started on 12 December
2016; starting height: 1,000 hPa (red), 950 hPa The DWD’s statutory duties include the monitoring of (green), 900 hPa (blue). // Source: DWD radioactivity in the atmosphere. The preconditions for this exist in the DWD’s area-covering measuring network and the given availability of the communication equipment needed for transmitting the measured data......
necessary official measures to be taken. Radioactive contamination of the surround- Regular measurements of radioactive substances have been carried out by the DWD ing areas had been ruled out. since 1955. This made it possible to detect the effects of the nuclear weapon tests in Based on the measurements from six measuring sites, the DWD found proof the 1950s and 1960s as well as those of the disastrous nuclear accidents of Chernobyl of a large-scale distribution of this radioactive substance. However, the measurements (1986) and Fukushima (2011). showed only a few millionths of Becquerel per square metre of air, i. e. a millionth of the Since 2016, all 48 measuring sites of the network have been equipped with amount measured in Germany shortly after the release of radioactivity at Chernobyl. continuously measuring aerosol monitors for early warning of nuclear incidents. Highly The transport of radiation from its source to the measuring sites can be clearly seen sensitive measuring procedures enable the detection of the smallest traces of radio- from the calculated trajectories. Near the source of the release in Essen, the measure- active substances. These procedures are used to continuously monitor the level of ments showed around 59 µBq/m³, whereas Fehmarn weather station 400 km away, natural radioactivity. The results are published once a month on the Internet and once where the air was transported to, still measured 11 µBq/m³. a year as part of the yearly report of the Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservation, Building and Nuclear Safety (BMUB). Measured quantities of selenium-75 In December 2016, the highly sensitive measurement instruments detected unambiguous traces of the radionuclide selenium-75 (Se-75) in the air. Selenium-75 is Station Collection Activity concentration of Uncertainty Limit of detection period selenium-75 in µBq/m³ in % in µBq/m³ used in the non-destructive testing (NDT) of materials as an enclosed radiation source. Such highly radioactive radiation sources are subject to special notifying and reporting Lingen W50 3.4 8.8 1.8 requirements. This release of selenium-75 resulted from an industrial accident that Essen W50 59 6.2 7.0 had occurred on 12 December 2016 at a company dealing with radiation-based appar- Norderney W50 3.5 11.6 4.1 atuses within the administrative region of Düsseldorf. The accident led to contamin- Schleswig W50 4.1 7.2 1.5 ations that were carried into other parts of the company’s grounds. In collaboration with Fehmarn W50 11 6.9 3.3 the companies affected, the responsible regional government had arranged for all Potsdam W50 0.6 7.6 0.3 2016 Developments & Events
...... 31
Upgrade of the network for meteorological The DWD’s network for operations to 10 Gbit/s meteorological operations. // Source: DWD
In today’s digital age, the DWD needs to have a powerful and stable network infrastructure in place in order to implement procedures of strategical importance. To this aim, the DWD’s network infrastructure has been designed and established in a way which takes account of the service, availability and flexibility criteria applying to large service providers as well as of the data streams relevant to processes and procedures at the DWD.
The result is the infrastructure shown here, consisting of a broadband backbone ...... and access connections linked to it. Together these form the network for meteoro- Following the completion of these measures, the DWD is now optimally logical operations. prepared to implement its strategic plans. These include, among others, introducing The required flexibility and performance as well as the particularly import- the integrated forecasting system SINFONY for seamless predictions from zero to ant high availability of 99.99 per cent is ensured by using high-performance optical twelve hours ahead, improving the warnings of critical weather events, ensuring the technologies, including all available protection mechanisms in the fibre backbone. release of data to partners and customers and enhancing the collaboration in the area In addition to this, the primary and backup paths in the fibre network are routed com- of meteorological research. This upgrade will also enable the DWD to continue oper- pletely disjoint from each other. In 2016, the capacity was increased from 1 Gbit/s ating its infrastructure to the benefit of the other authorities under the responsibility to 10 Gbit/s. At the same time, encoded transmission was introduced for the optical of its parent ministry, the Federal Ministry of Transport and Digital Infrastructure transmission paths and the entire router hardware of the backbone was replaced (BMVI), in line with the requirements of their specialised procedures, whilst achieving by high-end carrier class devices. a high level of economic efficiency. 2016 Developments & Events
32 Part of the stock of the WMO’s library Number of publications given to the DWD increased again
The National Meteorological Library at the DWD received The number of publications at the DWD continues to a number of books and publications from the library of be at a high level . In addition to self-published works the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) in Geneva and the publications by the DWD press office, peer- as a present. reviewed papers in internationally renowned specialised journals received the most attention......
New treasures added to the stock Compared to the previous year, the number of new publications has increased of the National Meteorological Library. considerably: in 2016, a total of 125 papers was published by DWD scientists, either // Source: Denise Bergmann as lead or as co-authors. This is an increase of 15 per cent compared to 2015.
......
As the WMO’s prestigious reading room had to be cleared before the end of 2016, a quick decision was taken and the transport of books and journals from Geneva to Offenbach arranged rapidly. As a result, 370 books and ten series of journals, such as ‘Polar Science’ or ‘Natural Hazards’, which the DWD’s library had so far not possessed or collected, have now been incorporated into the library’s holdings. By taking over this literature, the DWD could preserve the added value of the WMO’s stock of me- teorological books. From now on, it will be easier for anyone interested from within Germany or from outside to access all these publications either directly at the DWD’s library or, for example, at a university library via the so-called interlibrary loan service. Development of publication activities at the DWD. // Source: DWD ...... 33 Measuring & Observing Networks 50 years of reception of data from meteorological satellites
......
1 2 3
Satellite images as used in the DWD’s
WarnWetter app. // Source: DWD
......
2 + 3
Different types of satellite images in the
TriVis software, a professional visualisation
system especially designed for the media for
the presentation of weather reports.
// Source: DWD
1 2016 Measuring & Observing Networks
1 List auf Sylt 34 Ground-based measuring network: primary network Glücksburg Leck Arkona Schönhagen
Fehmarn Schleswig LT Kiel Marienleuchte Putbus Schleswig-Jagel Kiel Barth S. P.-Ording Hohn Greifswalder Oie TW Ems Deutsche Bucht Rostock 24 Stations staffed Dörnick Greifswald Pelzerhaken Helgoland Elpersbüttel Itzehoe Boltenhagen around the clock Laage Cuxhaven Lübeck Ueckermünde Norderney LT Alte Weser Quickborn Trollenhagen 182 Main weather stations 12 Part-time staffed Nordholz Schwerin Goldberg Wittmundhafen Bremerhaven Waren Hamburg/Flughafen Emden stations Boizenburg Feldberg Grünow Bremervörde Marnitz
Friesoythe Angermünde 146 Fully automatic Bremen/Flughafen Soltau Lüchow Kyritz Neuruppin weather stations Faßberg Seehausen Bergen Meppen Manschnow Diepholz Tegel/Flughafen Celle Lingen Gardelegen Genthin Tempelhof Wunstorf Potsdam Belm Hannover/Flughafen Schönefeld/Flughafen Rheine 6 Fully automatic stations Bückeburg Braunschweig Ummendorf Lindenberg Ahaus Wiesenburg Bad Salzuflen Magdeburg Baruth 10 Münster-Osnabrück/Flughafen Aerological stations (auto launchers) Alfeld Wittenberg Lügde Cottbus Wernigerode Holzdorf Bad Lippspringe 2 With ozone soundings Brocken Braunlage Harzgerode Doberlug-Kirchhain Werl Hoyerswerda Warburg Göttingen Essen Leinefelde Leipzig/Flughafen Oschatz Görlitz Lüdenscheid Schauenburg Leipzig Düsseldorf/Flughafen Artern Kahler Asten Dresden/Flughafen Fritzlar Osterfeld 119 Lichtenhain Global radiation Eisenach
Aachen Köln-Bonn/Flughafen Gera Bad Hersfeld Erfurt/Flughafen Chemnitz Bonn Zinnwald Nörvenich Neu-Ulrichstein 119 Stations for radiation 119 Diffuse illumination Marienberg Bad Marienberg Schmücke Gießen/Wettenberg Schleiz Meiningen Hoherodskopf measurements Wasserkuppe Neuhaus a.R. Plauen Fichtelberg 11 Atmospheric thermal Nürburg Andernach Hof Carlsfeld Koblenz Kleiner Feldberg Oberlauter radiation Bad Kissingen Büchel Wetterpark Wunsiedel-Schönbrunn Hahn Geisenheim Frankfurt/Flughafen Neuhütten Bamberg Trier Deuselbach Würzburg Michelstadt-Vielbrunn Weiden Idar-Oberstein 48 Stations measuring Mannheim Tholey Nürnberg/Flughafen Kümmersbruck Waldmünchen Weinbiet Niederstetten radioactivity Berus Waibstadt Roth Öhringen Großer Arber Saarbrücken/Flughafen Feuchtwangen Weißenburg Regensburg Rheinstetten Mühlacker Gelbelsee Zwiesel Kaisersbach-Cronhütte Straubing Schnarrenberg Harburg Neuburg 18 Weather radar systems 1 Quality assurance and Stuttgart/Flughafen Gottfrieding Stötten Ingolstadt Fürstenzell
test radar Freudenstadt Augsburg Weihenstephan Lahr Ulm-Mähringen Mühldorf Laupheim München/Flughafen Climate reference station Meßstetten Lechfeld München 28 Surface weather stations Klippeneck Staffed weather station (24/7) Freiburg Landsberg Part-time staffed weather station Feldberg Chieming of the Bundeswehr Altenstadt Leutkirch-Herlazhofen Automatic weather station Kempten Geoinformation Service Konstanz Hohenpeißenberg Weather station of the Bundeswehr Geoinformation Service Garmisch-Partenkirchen Oberstdorf LT Lighthouse Zugspitze TW Deep sea
1 Including the weather stations of the Bundeswehr Geoinformation Service Status 31 December 2016 2016 Measuring & Observing Networks
Ground-based measuring network: secondary network In detail: 35 The DWD’s measuring and observing network in Hesse and Thuringia
838 Submit online reports 1 779 Stations run by voluntary every hour The DWD’s network comprises about Thuringia weather observers 2,000 measuring stations distributed all 713 Submit their observations by Hesse manual report once a day over Germany. Here, we present the measuring networks as in place in the German Länder, this year Hesse and Thuringia.
The phenological network
51 Phenological observation sites of the primary network 3 Staffed weather stations 126 Voluntary precipitation stations (24/7) (conventional type)
1 182 Secondary phenological 371 Immediately reporting sites 17 Automatic weather stations 169 Phenological observation sites observation sites 42 Automatic climate stations 1 Weather station of the Bundeswehr Geoinformation 7 Automatic wind station Service
68 The marine meteorological network Automatic precipitation stations
2 Staffed shipborne weather 483 Stations stations
481 Observation sites run by voluntary weather observers ...... 36 Global Co-operation & 50 years of numerical weather prediction International Projects
......
2 3
The third model generation, BKF, ran its The ninth model generation, ICON, has been
calculations based on a mesh width of 254 km operational since 2015 and is run using a mesh
and nine layers. // Source: DWD width of 13 km for a total of 90 layers.
// Source: DWD
1
......
1 2 3
Output of the barotropic model from 1972 for
a 24-hour forecast. // Source: DWD 2016 Global Co-operation & International Projects
Satellite view of the meteorological situation in Europe from 37 27 May to 8 June 2016 World Meteorological Organization ...... WMO
The Executive Council of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) met for its 2016 annual session – it was the 68 th overall – in Geneva, Switzerland, from 15 to On 27 May most of the storms were over the east of the area, with an arc of isolated storms 24 June 2016. The Executive Council is the WMO’s main steering body, along with the stretching from France to Hungary. // Source: EUMETSAT WMO Congress, which takes place every four years. As an elected member of the Executive Council, the President of the DWD, Prof. Dr Gerhard Adrian, represents the Federal Republic of Germany in this body. One of the main tasks of the Executive ...... Council is to execute the decisions taken by the WMO Congress.
Another important task on behalf of the WMO Congress currently consists in reviewing the WMO’s governance structures for the WMO Constituent Body Reform that has already been adopted with the aim of increasing governance efficiency. To this aim, the Executive Council has tasked a working group to elaborate proposals for the next WMO Congress in 2019.
The ongoing reform process also involves a re-structuring of the WMO Secretariat. For instance, all climate activities, including the Global Framework for Climate Services (GFCS) and the Global Climate Observing System (GCOS) so far directly attributed to the Secretariat, have now been combined in the Climate and Water Department led by Dr Johannes Cullmann. On 28 May there was much more storm activity with the arc of large storms reaching from Furthermore, the WMO has reaffirmed its continued support for the imple- Spain, through Western Europe and on towards Poland. There were also storms to the east and mentation of the new climate change agreement, known as the Paris Agreement, and over the Mediterranean. // Source: EUMETSAT 2016 Global Co-operation & International Projects
...... the commitment to align its activities with the Agenda 2030 of the United Nations. 38 The Executive Council highlighted the importance of the National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHS) and the data and research findings they contribute The 29 th saw some storms mainly over Germany to the work of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and the United and Poland. Although only a few, these were Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). large, severe storms. Big storms continued in the east. // Source: EUMETSAT The WMO Integrated Global Observing System (WIGOS) is planned to be operational by the next WMO Congress. This will complete the introduction of global uniform standards for integrated measuring and observing networks which fulfil customer requirements, are able to integrate networks of co-operating partners and provide high-quality monitoring procedures.
......
European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts ECMWF
In 2016, the Council of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts The yearly meeting between the ECMWF and DWD at director’s level has (ECMWF) held its sessions under the direction of DWD President Prof. Dr Gerhard become a tradition and took place in Offenbach at the beginning of November. For the Adrian. Important decisions were taken: in spring, the ECMWF adopted its new strat- first time, the delegation visiting the DWD was led by the ECMWF’s new Director- egy for the years 2016 to 2025, which sets out very ambitious targets. Among other General Florence Rabier and included the Director of Research Erland Källén and the things, it is planned to extend the forecast range of skilful predictions by 2025 new Director of Forecasts Florian Pappenberger. In addition to political and strategic from currently around one to two weeks ahead. topics, such as the new site of the next HPC or the impact of the UK’s ‘Brexit’ on the ECMWFs work, the talks centred on the state of development reached by both the Essential preconditions for this are the availability of adequate computing Centre’s Integrated Forecasting System and the DWD’s forecasting model ICON. facilities and a suitable accommodation for the future data centre. It was decided that the best way to find a solution was to run an international competition among the Member States until the end of the year. 2016 Global Co-operation & International Projects
...... 39 European Organisation for the Exploitation of Meteorological Satellites EUMETSAT
Work on the next generation of satellite instruments for EUMETSAT’s mandatory programmes Meteosat Third Generation (MTG) and EUMETSAT Polar System Second Generation (EPS-SG) is continuing to make progress. Delays with MTG have led to an accumulation of the members’ expenses earmarked for the programme. On 30 May a trough caused an arc of storms over central Europe, stretching from the Netherlands to Bulgaria. Storms continued in the east. // Source: EUMETSAT The Copernicus programme saw the successful start of the earth observation satellite Sentinel-3A. EUMETSAT is responsible for operating the satellite. The satellite’s first ocean monitoring products have become available with the successful ...... completion of the commissioning phase.
For Germany, the era of satellite data reception began exactly 50 years ago. This occasion was marked by a festive event on 18 May, which also included a historical review and presentations on current and future developments at EUMETSAT and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).
On 1 November, a EUMETSAT expert team visited the DWD in order to personally present the state of development and capabilities of the next generation of geostationary satellites (MTG). These satellites with their payload of imaging and sounding instruments are scheduled for launch in 2021 and 2022.
The Council session in December saw the signing of the co-operation agreements for the implementation of the third operations phase of EUMETSAT’s Satellite Application Facility (SAF) network. The DWD continues to have the overall On the 31 st the trough swung towards the northeast with a circulation over Poland. Turkey responsibility for the SAF on Climate Monitoring and, for the first time, will become experienced some severe storms. Convection developed near the coasts of Algeria and Tunisia. active as a member of the SAF on Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP SAF). // Source: EUMETSAT 2016 Global Co-operation & International Projects
40 European Union – Copernicus Bilateral co-operation
Hosting the national Copernicus bureau for user co-ord- In 2016, the DWD’s continued bi-lateral activities ination, the DWD is not only responsible for directly provid- with other national meteorological services were mostly ing agreed contributions to the Copernicus Atmosphere pursued in spring and autumn. Monitoring and Climate Change services, it is also tasked to facilitate the exchange between the users. Talks with the directors of the meteorological services of Switzerland (MeteoSwiss), Hungary (OMSZ), the Czech Republic (CHMI) and Finland (FMI) were mainly aimed at exchanging information about the latest developments at the partnering services and their strategic-political views regarding the work of international organisations. In November, a dedicated workshop was therefore held at the DWD, Offenbach, for A couple of new, concrete collaboration projects were agreed with the various the national users of the two Copernicus services. partners.
In the context of the Copernicus emergency management service, the For the first time in many years, three senior staff members of the Israel DWD, as part of a German consortium, has taken on quality assurance tasks in the Meteorological Service (IMS) visited the DWD in Offenbach. The focus of this expert Meteorological Data Collection network of the European Flood Awareness System meeting was to discuss the requirements for a state-of-the-art meteorological infor- (EFAS). mation system which also features quality control procedures.
......
1 2
On the Meteosat-10 Day Microphysics RGB On 2 June image from 15:00 UTC there was
imagery from 15:00 UTC on 1 June you can see very little storm activity. However, this
there were some storms over central and was just a pause before further stormy weather
Eastern Europe, but they were less severe than arrived to again batter parts of Europe.
on previous days. // Source: EUMETSAT // Source: EUMETSAT
1 2 2016 Global Co-operation & International Projects
...... Within the framework of the Memorandum of Understanding between the 41 China Meteorological Administration (CMA) and the DWD, a number of CMA represen- tatives visited the DWD at its headquarters in Offenbach and at the Meteorological Observatory in Lindenberg. A wide range of topics was discussed, including, for ex- ample, numerical weather prediction and nowcasting, and information was exchanged regarding observing and measuring networks, latest measurement systems and data quality management.
In 2016, the efforts of the DWD-hosted Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC) to obtain precipitation data from China at a daily resolution culminated in success: a licence agreement was concluded for the supply of Chinese precipitation datasets by CMA to GPCC. In addition, it was agreed that a CMA staff member could come to the DWD / GPCC for a six-month working visit. On 3 June there were small storms over Scandinavia and some associated with a trough over In September, Dr Richard W. Spinrad, Chief Scientist at the National Oceanic Russia. A big storm developed over northern Turkey and isolated storms occurred in Spain and and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), paid a first visit to the DWD in Offenbach. Topics northern Algeria. // Source: EUMETSAT of discussions included, for example, the interactive relationships between climate, weather and oceans, the ongoing research and development activities at the DWD, ...... heat warning systems and the implementation of GFCS in the USA and Germany.
From 16 to 18 November 2016, 35 experts from ten European countries and the USA met in Dresden-Pillnitz for a workshop entitled ‘Sort-out drought!’. The work- shop was jointly organised by the Federal State of Saxony (as the host), DWD, NOAA and the European Drought Observatory (EDO) of the European Commission. Compared to the other federal states, Saxony is particularly at risk of drought. The workshop’s aim was to jointly work out and illustrate ways of how to achieve a globally harmonized drought information system. Such close collaboration in the national implementation of climate services for drought management had already been agreed during the meeting of the WMO’s Commission for Climatology at Heidelberg in 2014.
In addition to drought issues, the DWD and NOAA are also collaborating to establish climate services for dealing with heat. In line with the mission of the Global The 4 th once again showed increasing thundery activity. Storms broke out over Spain in the Framework of Climate Services (GFCS), the aim in all cases is to provide the sectors west, spreading all through Europe as far as eastern Turkey. In the north a trough set off storms affected by climate change with services which enable or help them to make informed in an arc from Russia round to Denmark. // Source: EUMETSAT decisions on adaptation. 2016 Global Co-operation & International Projects
...... 42 1 2
The image from 5 June shows a large area On 6 June there were still a large number of big storms over central Europe. A front to the of storms over central and Eastern Europe. As west of the UK moved east with the potential expected the front in the west moved over to give thundery activity as it moved over the Ireland, Spain and France, and storms broke out warm land. // Source: EUMETSAT along its length. // Source: EUMETSAT
1 2
......
Technical co-operation
A first Southern Africa Regional Climate Services Workshop was held in Victoria Falls, Zimbabwe, from 29 November to 2 December 2016.
The workshop was part of the Swiss Capacity Building and Twinning for Climate Observing Systems (CATCOS) project and was jointly organised by the Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology MeteoSwiss, the GFCS office of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), the Meteorological Services Department (MSD) More than 50 participants from national meteorological services of southern African of Zimbabwe and the DWD. countries and other regional and international interest groups discussed the status, relevance and effects of climate services for southern African countries. The workshop The DWD contributed poster presentations on the technical co-operation was specifically targeted at identifying gaps between existing and required climate activities it provides in the southern African region as part of the Southern African services in the GFCS’s priority area Agriculture and Food Security. Science Service Centre for Climate Change and Adaptive Land Use (SASSCAL). 2016 Global Co-operation & International Projects
43 The group was initially established to monitor and co-ordinate the implementation DWD: leader of the of regional tasks in the field of aeronautical meteorology and put them into an international context. The Vice-Chair is also a woman and comes from the Russian ICAO Meteorology Group (METG) Federation. This means that, for the first time in its history, the Meteorology Group is led by two women. The ICAO’s Meteorology Officer assists the new Chair by pro- In September 2016, a member of the DWD’s staff became viding her with advice. chairwoman of the ICAO Meteorology Group (METG), The new leader duo is faced with a number of challenges, including the ongoing reorganisation of ICAO as well as the imminent restructuring of aeronautical a working group of the European Air Navigation Planning meteorological matters and responsibilities. For the DWD, holding this chair means Group (EANPG) for the North Atlantic and Europe region of that the DWD’s visibility in the international aeronautical meteorological community will increase even further. the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO).
......
The 7 th saw the front lying across the UK down to Italy and on to Greece and Albania. There The final image of the sequence is for 8 June. The front was still active over Germany, down were some large severe storms over central Europe and even the UK saw storms developing. to Italy, with some large severe storms developing. A few isolated storms developed in eastern
// Source: EUMETSAT Morocco. // Source: EUMETSAT 2016 Global Co-operation & International Projects
...... 44 Network of European Meteorological Services EIG EUMETNET
EIG EUMETNET is a grouping of 31 European national meteorological services Automatic launch of a radiosonde from the Automatic launch of a radiosonde from the set-up to co-ordinate their collaboration in the various fields of basic meteorological research ship METEOR. ship MONTREAL SENATOR. activities, mainly weather observation and forecasting products. The focus of // Source: Harald Budweg // Source: Harald Budweg, Rudolf Krockauer EUMETNET’s activities continues to be on co-ordinating the different ground-based weather observation systems. These are vitally important, especially for enabling ...... good quality numerical weather predictions.
The DWD is responsible for the co-ordination of EUMETNET’s Observations Programme and the EUMETNET Automated Shipboard Aerological Programme (E-ASAP) for radiosoundings from merchant ships; through this, it makes a significant contribution to the grouping.
A key outcome of the spring Assembly meeting was the adoption of a joint strategy of European national meteorological services, entitled ‘2016 – 2025 Strategy of the European NMHSs – Towards a network of European NMHSs: collabor- ation & complementarity’. The principles laid down in the strategy set the guidelines for EUMETNET’s future plans and organisational structures from 2019 onwards.
On 7 July 2016, members of the Advisory Committees came together for an extraordinary meeting at the DWD to prepare the next programme phase from 2019. Altogether 27 representatives of 16 NMHSs took part in the meeting to discuss EUMETNET’s future and to agree on a process on how to organise future collaboration. Checking the auto-launcher system for weather balloons aboard a ship. // Source: DWD ...... 45 Facts & Figures 50 years of ozone measurements
......
1
Test launch of two weather balloons for
ozone sounding at the end of the 1960s at
Hohenpeissenberg. // Source: DWD 3 4
1
......
2
International ozone comparison campaign in
1978 at Hohenpeissenberg. // Source: DWD
......
3
Total ozone measurements with a Dobson
spectrometer at the beginning of the 1980s.
// Source: DWD
......
2 4
Ozone sounding today: sonde launch in spring
2016. // Source: DWD 2016 Facts & Figures
46 DWD costs each citizen just 3.30 euros per year Increase in revenue
The DWD’s budget in 2016 amounted to about 335 million euros, which was slightly The DWD’s revenues from the sale of products and services increased in 2016 by over 30 million euros more than in the previous year. The actual requirement for public nearly 4.4 million euros to a total of 63.6 million euros. The DWD, however, has no funds, however, was much lower than that due to the fact that 19.0 per cent of the authority to use the proceeds from its sales. They go directly into the Federal Budget overall budget were indirectly covered by revenues. Compared to the previous year, and thus indirectly reduce the public funds which the DWD, as Germany’s national the DWD’s requirement for public funds increased in 2016 by more than 25 million meteorological service, needs for the fulfilment of its tasks, for example in the field euros. This means that every citizen in Germany (end-2015 number of inhabitants: of disaster risk reduction. 82.176 million, source: Wikipedia) only had to pay 3.30 euros for federal tasks as important as weather forecasting, severe weather warnings and climate monitoring. One reason for the higher requirement for public funds was the higher amount of allocations to European and international organisations (overall more than 20 million euros more).
...... The DWD’s requirement for public funds Income achieved by the DWD 2011 – 2016 1 2011 – 2016 1
2012 223,088 200,000 2012 54,837 60,000
2013 233,350 2013 54,329 150,000 45,000 2014 248,259 2014 58,834 100,000 30,000 2015 245,724 2015 59,128
2016 271,427 50,000 2016 63,559 15,000
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
1 In thousand euros 2016 Facts & Figures
47 Increased investments EUMETSAT takes the largest share
The DWD’s investments increased by a good 30.8 per cent as compared with In 2016, the allocations and subsidies for international organisations increased to the previous year. Here, the lion's share went to information technology (approx. more than 141.7 million euros, compared with a good 121.4 million euros in 2015. The 53.4 per cent), followed by expenditure on materials (37.8 per cent). largest part of these (more than 82 million euros, or 56.7 per cent) went to EUMETSAT, which is close to 16 million euros more than in the previous year. The amount allo- cated to ESA, however, increased by just over 5 millions more to 42.1 million euros. The remaining amount of allocations to national and international institutions was shared amongst ECMWF, WMO, EUMETNET and other organisations. For the first time, a sum of more than 322 thousand euros was allocated as grants to external research institutes in Germany and to support the academic world in their basic research activities conducted in areas of interest to the DWD.
...... The DWD’s investments Allocations / subsidies in 2016 1 2016 (external budget chapters included) 1
Building projects 2,703 7.7 % EUMETSAT 82,093 56.7 %
Vehicle pool 376 1.1 % ESA 42,087 29.1 %
Expenditure on materials 13,199 37.8 % ECMWF 11,019 7.6 %
Information technology 18,614 53.4 % EUMETNET 1,274 0.9 %
WMO 4,641 3.2 %
Other 3,651 2.5 %
1 In thousand euros 2016 Facts & Figures
48 Service provider with Stagnant expenditure on staff high personnel requirements
Totalling to 113.9 million euros in 2016, the DWD’s expenditure on staff remained As a scientific-technical authority with slightly more than a quarter of all employees almost the same as in the previous year. In addition to the pure personnel costs, working shifts, the DWD has a high demand for qualified and highly competent staff, around 3.8 million euros went as allocations to the pension fund. which is the obvious reason why the personnel costs are among the highest cost factors. In 2016, their share in total expenditure accounted for 34.0 per cent, which is slightly less than the 42.3 per cent for allocations to international organisations.
...... Expenditure distribution in the DWD budget of The DWD’s expenditure on staff 2016 (external budget chapters excluded) 1 2011 – 2016 1
Allocations / subsidies 141,677 42.3 % 2012 109,291 100,000
Investments 34,892 10.4 % 2013 111,008 75,000 Expenditure on materials 44,502 13.3 % 2014 113,553 50,000 Expenditure on staff 113,915 34.0 % 2015 113,921
2016 113,915 25,000
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
1 In thousand euros 2016 Facts & Figures
...... 49 Number of established posts Number of posts at DWD now reduced by 1990 – 2016 about 30 per cent since 1992
1990 2,013 1999 2,751 2008 2,385 The DWD continues to contribute actively to the ongoing, nation-wide process started in 1993 to reduce the costs of the civil service whilst achieving, at the same time, a 1991 3,039 2000 2,713 20091 2,427 high level of efficiency. In addition to concentrating on core areas and making greater 1992 3,087 2001 2,672 2010 2,399.5 use of the opportunities provided by information technology, the main challenge in 1993 3,081 2002 2,626.5 2011 2,361.5 this context now is the increasing focus on process optimisation and quality manage- ment. At all management levels and at every workplace, the personnel factor is the 1994 3,023 2003 2,584.5 2012 2,313.5 key to success. Nowadays, ‘personnel development’ no longer stands for an increase 1995 3,024 2004 2,546 2013 2,235.5 in the number of employees but, above all, for committed staff members with higher 1996 2,912 2005 2,505 2014 2,226.5 levels of qualification and who show innovative thinking and action. 1997 2,866 2006 2,464.5 2015 2,226.5
Over the past 24 years, this development has been strongly reflected in the 1998 2,807 2007 2,415.5 2016 2,215.0 DWD’s staffing levels. While in 1992, following Germany’s reunification, the Deutscher Wetterdienst reported the highest number of staff in its history, i. e. 3,087 established posts, the number came down to 2,215 in 2016. Despite the addition of some posts, this corresponds to a reduction of around 30 per cent. In 2016, the DWD had 2,323 staff 3,000 members (865 women and 1,458 men). The difference between the number of estab- lished posts and the total number of staff members is partly due to temporary or part- 2,800 time employment.
2,600
2,400
2,200
2,000
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
1 In 2009, the DWD was endowed with additional posts for inter-authority projects...... 50 Executive Board & Organisation 50 years of ozone measurements
......
Ozone measurements using an optical laser.
// Source: DWD 2016 Executive Board & Organisation
Administrative Advisory Scientific Advisory Bundeswehr Geoinformation Deutscher Wetterdienst Board Board Service – Meteorological Division with the DWD
Prof. Dr Gerhard Adrian Dr Paul Becker Prof. Dr Sarah C. Jones Norbert Wetter Dr Jochen Dibbern Hans-Joachim Koppert President Vice-President Director and Professor Head of Business Area Head of Business Area Head of Business Area
Chairman of the Business Area KU Business Area FE Business Area PB Business Area TI Business Area WV Executive Board Climate and Environment Research and Development Personnel and Business Technical Infrastructure Weather Forecasting Management and Operations Services
Staff Division STB Department KU 1 Department FE 1 Department PB 1 Department TI 1 Department WV 1 Strategy and Climate and Environment Meteorological Analysis and Personnel and Organisation Systems and Operations Basic Forecasts Office of the President Consultancy Modelling
Department PB 2 Department TI 2 Department WV 2 Staff Division PÖ Department KU 2 Division FE PK Finances and Internal Services Observing Networks and Data Aeronautical Meteorology Press and Public Relations Climate Monitoring Planning and Co-ordination
Division PB FB Department TI 3 Division WV PK Staff Division INT Department KU 3 Division FE ZE National Meteorological Service and Logistics Planning and Co-ordination International Affairs Agrometeorology Central Development Library and Documentation Centre Division TI PK Staff Division IP Department KU 4 Meteorological Planning, Co-ordination and Internal Audit Hydrometeorology Observatory Division PB JU Quality Assurance Hohenpeissenberg Legal Affairs
Division KU VL Customer Relations Meteorological Management Observatory Lindenberg
Division KU PK Planning and Co-ordination
Status 31 December 2015 2016 Executive Board & Organisation
52
Prof. Dr Gerhard Adrian Dr Paul Becker President Vice-President
President Business Area ‘Climate and Environment’
The President of the DWD is the chairman and spokesman of the Executive Board of Business Area ‘Climate and Environment’ has the task of providing comprehensive Directors. He manages the day-to-day business of the Board and co-ordinates its diagnoses of the climate system and prognoses on its future development. In times of duties. He represents the DWD as a whole in its outward presentation and in national a globally changing climate, climate monitoring, the documentation of its results and and international bodies. the prediction of the impacts of climate change have become essential to the general understanding of the climate. The findings of this work form the basis for political and The President is responsible for the development of the DWD strategy and is economic decision-making, contribute to improving preparedness to weather-related head of the Staff Divisions ‘Strategy and Office of the President’, ‘Press and Public disasters and help to provide sustainable support for disaster control. Relations’, ‘International Affairs’ and ‘Internal Audit’, all of which report directly to him. In his function as Chairman of the Executive Board of Directors of the DWD, he is the With regard to the tangible impacts of climate change, the Business Area Permanent Representative of Germany with the World Meteorological Organization ‘Climate and Environment’ provides expert opinions and assessments relating to pro- (WMO) and is responsible for the co-operation with the Bundeswehr (German Federal jects notably in the field of traffic and urban development, water management, agricul- Armed Forces). ture, the health sector and technical climatology. The focus here is on the prediction of snow, ice and wind loads. 2016 Executive Board & Organisation
53
Prof. Dr Sarah C. Jones Norbert Wetter Director and Professor Head of Business Area
Business Area ‘Research and Development’ Business Area ‘Personnel and Business Management’
Business Area ‘Research and Development’, as expert infrastructural area, Business Area ‘Personnel and Business Management’ controls centrally the personnel promotes all activities of the DWD by centrally handling research and development and finance management, the organisational development and the marketing policy tasks in the field of meteorology. Its main concern is the provision of scientific of the Deutscher Wetterdienst. It not only develops the necessary steering instruments, knowledge and methods for use in the customer-oriented areas of the DWD as well such as a future-oriented controlling system based on cost-performance accounting, as in the development of measuring methods for improving data acquisition and but also makes them available. ‘Personnel and Business Management’, in its role as optimisation of the observation network. internal service provider, supports all parts of the DWD by supplying them with efficient administration services. 2016 Executive Board & Organisation
54
Dr Jochen Dibbern Hans-Joachim Koppert Head of Business Area Head of Business Area
Business Area ‘Technical Infrastructure and Operations’ Business Area ‘Weather Forecasting Services’
Business Area ‘Technical Infrastructure and Operations’ is responsible for the acqui- Business Area ‘Weather Forecasting Services’ issues weather forecasts and weather sition of data in the measuring and observation networks and for the operation of warnings for the general public and users in special areas such as, for example, road all technical systems the DWD needs for fulfilling its tasks as National Meteorological traffic, aviation, marine shipping, and the Bundeswehr (German Federal Armed Service. Forces). Private meteorological information providers also use these products. A main focus is to provide the population and disaster control institutions of the Federation These technical systems include the wide variety of measuring technologies, and the Länder with warnings for the purposes of hazard prevention. the complex communication technology systems for data exchange, and the infor- mation technology systems ranging from the normal workplace environment to the ‘Weather Forecasting Services’ assures the meteorological consultation high performance computing centre in Offenbach. for aviation and marine shipping, taking into account the international rules and pro- visions for the improvement of security and economic efficiency. 2016 Executive Board & Organisation
...... 55 Advice and Support 50 years of high-performance computing
Scientific Advisory Board of the (3) The Scientific Advisory Board shall DWD: § 9 of the Law on the Deutscher adopt rules of procedure which require Wetterdienst the approval of the Executive Board of
(1) The Scientific Advisory Board shall the Deutscher Wetterdienst. advise the Executive Board of the Deutscher Wetterdienst on important Advisory Board of the Federation matters of research, which the Deutscher and the Länder: § 10 of the Law on the 1 Wetterdienst carries out within the Deutscher Wetterdienst framework of its duties pursuant to § 4 and can make recommendations in (1) The Advisory Board of the Feder- this respect. The Scientific Board shall ation and the Länder shall advise the Ex- further the contact with universities and ecutive Board of the Deutscher Wetter- dienst and the Federal Ministry of Trans- shall support the co-operation of the 2 Deutscher Wetterdienst with national port and Digital Infrastructure in matters and international research institutes and concerning the interests of the federal its inclusion in national and internation- ministries and the Länder in the ful- al research programmes. filment of the duties of the Deutscher Wetterdienst in accordance with § 4, and ...... (2) The Scientific Advisory Board shall shall guarantee the appropriate co-oper- 1 comprise ten members. They shall be ation. appointed by the Federal Ministry of First generation of supercomputers at the Transport and Digital Infrastructure at (2) The Advisory Board of the Feder- end of the 1960s . // Source: DWD the suggestion of the Executive Board of ation and the Länder shall consist of ...... the Deutscher Wetterdienst for a period representatives from the federal minis- 2 of four years. Reappointment is possible tries and the Länder; each Land may Computing power increased again in for one more period. Scientists from send one representative. The Advisory November 2016: the DWD’s current HPC. meteorology and related fields shall be Board of the Federation and the Länder // Source: Jo Wilhelm Arts adequately represented. shall adopt rules of procedure which require the approval of the Federal Ministry of Transport and Digital Infra- structure...... 56 Contact & Imprint 50 years of high-performance computing
Operationeller Ablauf der NWV-Modelle des DWD im Jahr 1977 BTP (barotropes Modell), BKL (baroklines Modell) Operational schedule of the NWP system at the DWD in 2016 (Rechner: CDC3800) ICON (-EU), COSMO (-DE, -DE-EPS) and WAVE
0 0 23 1 23 1 21h 2 2 1 22 22 h 5h 12 21h 18h 18h 00h
2 1h
h 3 21 0 3 21 21 0h 0 0 h h 18 h 8 1 1 2h 21h
0 0 h 4 12h 0 h 15 0 4 18 h h 20 21h 20 18h 0 2 3 1h h h 12h 5 18h 15h 1 12h-21h 18h 0 21 0h h
h 5 18h 5 1 5 0 0 21 h 19 19 h h h 2 5 5h 1 1 -1 h h 8 2 0 1 0 1 h h 2 0 1 0
h 0 0 0 3 h
h
h
5 h 2 1 0 1 0
h h
2 h
1 2
0
1 h
0 6 2 6
h
h
1
1
0
2
h 0
0
h
0
2
h 1
18 CPU 0
18 CPU
0 0
0 h
h
h
2
0
1
0
0
3
h
h
h
h
2
5
1
1 h
2
1
0
0
h
h
0
2 0
1
0 6
h
h
-
0 0
0
3 3
h 0
h
h h
9
7 0 h W 7
2 P
1 AVE-
0
3
0
17 6 h 17 h
h
h
2 9
1 0
h C
6
0 O -P
0
S 0
Oh
M -
0
9
h
0
0
6 h
h
3
0
3 h 0 0
h
h
h 9
0
5
1
h
6
0 h
9 0 8
ICON-P1 8
h
0
6 h 2 h
3
0
1 h 0 0
16
h 16
2
1
h
9 0
BKL h IC P
0 ON-
0
0
6
h
0
h
6
2
h 1
9
9 h
2
1
0
W 9
A E h 15 V 15
h
9 0
h 0
2
6
1
CO O h h
9 SM
0
h
6 0 10
0 0 10 h
h
3 BTP 0
14 14
0 9
ICON h 11 11 13 13
12 12
BTP 1 2 main run BKL ICON, COSMO: analysis / nudging pre-assimilation Analyse ICON: analysis - serial part Vorhersage ICON, COSMO: forecast assimilation 00..23 real time [UTC] 00..23 Realzeit [UTC] COSMO-DE-EPS: interpolation 00h, 03h, .. model time [UTC] 00h, 03h, .. Modellzeit [UTC] WAVE (GWAM, EWAM, CWAM) c Oktober 2016, Thomas Hanisch, DWD, FE13, erstellt mit LAT X/TikZ, LibreOffice, ksh E P, P1 parallel suite
c October 2016, Thomas Hanisch, DWD, FE13, prepared with LAT X/TikZ, LibreOffice, ksh E
......
1 + 2
The so-called model performance counter
shows the workloads of the HPC systems in 1977
and 2016. // Source: DWD 2016 Contact & Imprint
57
...... Deutscher Wetterdienst Important links (DWD) Frankfurter Strasse 135 Publications 63067 Offenbach am Main Germany Climate information Telephone +49 69 80 62 - 0 Fax +49 69 80 62 - 44 84 Current weather www.dwd.de [email protected] App for weather warnings The cover: View into the warning meteor- ologists’ work area at the Weather Forecasting Weather hotline 1 Information for journalists and Advisory Centre in Offenbach. Telephone +49 18 02 91 39 13 // Source: Michael Alfen Newsletters When calling our weather hotline you will automatically be connected with the Editor closest DWD Branch Office. Deutscher Wetterdienst
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Translation ISSN 2199-6091 Gabriele Engel DWD
Layout Simone Leonhardt, Frankfurt am Main