Annual Report 2019
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Security Transitions Thiemo Fetzer, Pedro Cl Souza, Oliver Vanden Eynde, Austin Wright
Security Transitions Thiemo Fetzer, Pedro Cl Souza, Oliver Vanden Eynde, Austin Wright To cite this version: Thiemo Fetzer, Pedro Cl Souza, Oliver Vanden Eynde, Austin Wright. Security Transitions. 2020. halshs-02518234 HAL Id: halshs-02518234 https://halshs.archives-ouvertes.fr/halshs-02518234 Preprint submitted on 25 Mar 2020 HAL is a multi-disciplinary open access L’archive ouverte pluridisciplinaire HAL, est archive for the deposit and dissemination of sci- destinée au dépôt et à la diffusion de documents entific research documents, whether they are pub- scientifiques de niveau recherche, publiés ou non, lished or not. The documents may come from émanant des établissements d’enseignement et de teaching and research institutions in France or recherche français ou étrangers, des laboratoires abroad, or from public or private research centers. publics ou privés. WORKING PAPER N° 2020 – 13 Security Transitions Thiemo Fetzer Pedro CL Souza Oliver Vanden Eynde Austin L. Wright JEL Codes: D72, D74, L23 Keywords: Counterinsurgency, Civil Conflict, Public Goods Provision Security Transitions∗ Thiemo Fetzery Pedro CL Souzaz Oliver Vanden Eyndex Austin L. Wright{ March 23, 2020 Abstract How do foreign powers disengage from a conflict? We study the recent large- scale security transition from international troops to local forces in the context of the ongoing civil conflict in Afghanistan. We construct a new dataset that com- bines information on this transition process with declassified conflict outcomes and previously unreleased quarterly survey data. Our empirical design leverages the staggered roll-out of the transition onset, together with a novel instrumental variables approach to estimate the impact of the two-phase security transition. -
Security Transitions∗
Security Transitions∗ Thiemo Fetzery Pedro CL Souzaz Oliver Vanden Eyndex Austin L. Wright{ March 18, 2020 Abstract How do foreign powers disengage from a conflict? We study the recent large- scale security transition from international troops to local forces in the context of the ongoing civil conflict in Afghanistan. We construct a new dataset that com- bines information on this transition process with declassified conflict outcomes and previously unreleased quarterly survey data. Our empirical design leverages the staggered roll-out of the transition onset, together with a novel instrumental variables approach to estimate the impact of the two-phase security transition. We find that the initial security transfer to Afghan forces is marked by a significant, sharp and timely decline in insurgent violence. This effect reverses with the ac- tual physical withdrawal of foreign troops. We argue that this pattern is consistent with a signaling model, in which the insurgents reduce violence strategically to facilitate the foreign military withdrawal. Our findings clarify the destabilizing consequences of withdrawal in one of the costliest conflicts in modern history and yield potentially actionable insights for designing future security transitions. Keywords:Counterinsurgency,Civil Conflict,Public Goods Provision JEL Classification: D72, D74, L23 ∗We thank Ethan Bueno de Mesquita, Wioletta Dziuda, Anthony Fowler, Hannes Mueller, Christo- pher Price, Jacob Shapiro, and audiences at the Chicago Harris Political Economy, ESOC Annual Con- ference, University of Warwick, IAE Barcelona Workshop on Prediction for Prevention, HiCN confer- ence, CREST Political Economy Workshop, and Labex OSE Aussois Days. Manh Duc Nguyen provided excellent research assistance. Support from the Pearson Institute for the Study and Resolution of Con- flicts is gratefully acknowledged. -
Afghanistan: Annual Report 2014
AFGHANISTAN ANNUAL REPORT 2014 PROTECTION OF CIVILIANS IN ARMED CONFLICT © 2014/Ihsanullah Mahjoor/Associated Press United Nations Assistance Mission United Nations Office of the High in Afghanistan Commissioner for Human Rights Kabul, Afghanistan February 2015 Kabul, Afghanistan July 2014 Source: UNAMA GIS January 2012 AFGHANISTAN ANNUAL REPORT 2014 PROTECTION OF CIVILIANS IN ARMED CONFLICT United Nations Assistance Mission United Nations Office of the High in Afghanistan Commissioner for Human Rights Kabul, Afghanistan February 2015 Photo on Front Cover © 2014/Ihsanullah Mahjoor/Associated Press. Bodies of civilians killed in a suicide attack on 23 November 2014 in Yahyakhail district, Paktika province that caused 138 civilian casualties (53 killed including 21 children and 85 injured including 26 children). Photo taken on 24 November 2014. "The conflict took an extreme toll on civilians in 2014. Mortars, IEDs, gunfire and other explosives destroyed human life, stole limbs and ruined lives at unprecedented levels. The thousands of Afghan children, women and men killed and injured in 2014 attest to failures to protect civilians from harm. All parties must uphold the values they claim to defend and make protecting civilians their first priority.” Nicholas Haysom, United Nations Special Representative of the Secretary-General in Afghanistan, December 2014, Kabul “This annual report shows once again the unacceptable price that the conflict is exacting on the civilian population in Afghanistan. Documenting these trends should not be regarded -
ICC-02/17 Date: 20 November 2017 PRE-TRIAL CHAMBER III Before
ICC-02/17-7-Red 20-11-2017 1/181 NM PT ras Original: English No.: ICC-02/17 Date: 20 November 2017 PRE-TRIAL CHAMBER III Before: Judge Antoine Kesia-Mbe Mindua, Presiding Judge Judge Chang-ho Chung Judge Raul C. Pangalangan SITUATION IN THE ISLAMIC REPUBLIC OF AFGHANISTAN PUBLIC with confidential, EX PARTE, Annexes 1, 2A, 2B, 2C, 3A, 3B, 3C, 4A, 4B, 4C, 6, public Annexes 4, 5 and 7, and public redacted version of Annex 1-Conf-Exp Public redacted version of “Request for authorisation of an investigation pursuant to article 15”, 20 November 2017, ICC-02/17-7-Conf-Exp Source: Office of the Prosecutor ICC-02/17-7-Red 20-11-2017 2/181 NM PT Document to be notified in accordance with regulation 31 of the Regulations of the Court to: The Office of the Prosecutor Counsel for the Defence Mrs Fatou Bensouda Mr James Stewart Mr Benjamin Gumpert Legal Representatives of the Victims Legal Representatives of the Applicants Unrepresented Victims Unrepresented Applicants (Participation/Reparation) The Office of Public Counsel for The Office of Public Counsel for the Victims Defence States’ Representatives Amicus Curiae REGISTRY Registrar Defence Support Section Mr Herman von Hebel Victims and Witnesses Unit Detention Section Mr Nigel Verrill No. ICC- 02/17 2/181 20 November 2017 ICC-02/17-7-Red 20-11-2017 3/181 NM PT I. Introduction ...................................................................................................... 6 II. Confidentiality ................................................................................................. -
End of Year Report (2018) About Mujahideen Progress and Territory Control
End of year report (2018) about Mujahideen progress and territory control: The Year of Collapse of Trump’s Strategy 2018 was a year that began with intense bombardments, military operations and propaganda by the American invaders but all praise belongs to Allah, it ended with the neutralization of another enemy strategy. The Mujahideen defended valiantly, used their chests as shields against enemy onslaughts and in the end due to divine assistance, the invaders were forced to review their war strategy. This report is based on precise data collected from concerned areas and verified by primary sources, leaving no room for suspicious or inaccurate information. In the year 2018, a total of 10638 attacks were carried out by Mujahideen against invaders and their hirelings from which 31 were martyr operations which resulted in the death of 249 US and other invading troops and injuries to 153 along with death toll of 22594 inflicted on Kabul administration troops, intelligence operatives, commandos, police and Arbakis with a further 14063 sustaining injuries. Among the fatalities 514 were enemy commanders killed and eliminated in various attacks across the country. During 2018 a total of 3613 vehicles including APCs, pickup trucks and other variants were destroyed along with 26 aircrafts including 8 UAVs, 17 helicopters of foreign and internal forces and 1 cargo plane shot down. Moreover, a total of 29 district administration centers were liberated by the Mujahideen of Islamic Emirate over the course of last year, among which some were retained -
Country of Origin Report Afghanistan
Country of Origin Report Afghanistan March 2019 Page 1 of 124 Country of Origin Report Afghanistan| March 2019 Publication details The Hague Text by: Department for Country of Origin Information Reports (CAB) Disclaimer: The Dutch version of this report is leading. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Netherlands cannot be held accountable for misinterpretations based on the English version of the report. Page 2 of 124 Country of Origin Report Afghanistan| March 2019 Table of contents Publication details ............................................................................................2 Table of contents .............................................................................................3 Introduction ....................................................................................................5 1 Country information .................................................................................... 7 1.1 Political developments ......................................................................................7 1.1.1 Government of National Unity ...........................................................................7 1.1.2 Elections ........................................................................................................8 1.1.3 Corruption in government ............................................................................... 16 1.2 High Peace Council (HPC) ............................................................................... 17 1.2.1 Peace talks with the Taliban ........................................................................... -
20 ISIL Terrorists Killed in Airstrike East of Afghanistan
2 Main News Page Nangarharis Face Unruly Traffic after 20 ISIL Terrorists Killed in Roads Closure JALALABAD - Residents say several roads have been closed Airstrike East of Afghanistan in the capital of eastern Nan- JALALABAD - At least twenty garhar province for security rea- insurgents affiliated with the ISIL sons, creating inconvenience for terrorist group were killed in an local residents and commuters. airstrike in Eastern Nangarhar Passengers on the Jalalabad- province of Afghanistan. Torkham highway and residents The Afghan Defense Ministry said of 11 districts of Nangarhar com- in a statement that the airstrike plain the closure of the airport was carried out during the past road has created problems for 24 hours, supporting the ongoing them. offensive to eliminate the threats The road was closed after a car posed by the terror group, Khaama suicide bombing targeted a se- press reported. curity post at the airport about a A statement said the insurgents month ago. were targeted in the vicinity of Another road leading to the Achin district, one of the main ar- governor’s house in Jalalabad eas in Nangarhar where the ISIL city has also been closed since loyalists are active in some of its a month following threats of at- parts.The anti-government armed tack. militant groups have not com- An elderly woman, who walked mented regarding the report so far. several kilometers on a hot Nangarhar is among the relatively summer day to reach Torkham calm ...(More on P4)...(17) border town, angrily criticized government officials, saying the ISIS Militants Suffer Casualties Bid to Kidnap Afghan government was only concerned Mattis Says US ‘may have Pulled our about itself. -
EU Envoy NATO Supports 4-Year Afghan Security
Eye on the News [email protected] Truthful, Factual and Unbiased Vol:XI Issue No:321 Price: Afs.20 www.afghanistantimes.af www.facebook.com/ afghanistantimeswww.twitter.com/ afghanistantimes SATURDAY . JULY 01. 2017 -Saratan 10, 1396 HS AT Monitoring Desk he United Kingdom’s Defense Secretary, T Michael Fallon has announced that Britain has taken a formal decision to deploy 100 more soldiers to Afghanistan in a bid to help, and train the Afghan on war, war is a fundamentally Support Mission beyond 2017. security forces. While talking to unpredictable phenomenon," Speaking at a press conference after KABUL: Former President Hamid media on his arrival to NATO Mattis told reporters after meeting Thursday’s defense ministers Karzai has opposed the info-icon defense ministers his counterparts from the 29- meeting in Brussels, he said: “Our deployment of more US soldiers meeting at Brussels, he said the nation alliance. "The bottom line military authorities have requested in Afghanistaninfo-icon and UK soldiers would be used to is that NATO has made a a few thousand more troops for warned the move may have enhance war skills and capabilities commitment to Afghanistan for the mission and today, I can negative consequences. Karzai of the Afghan soldiers and air force freedom from fear and terror, and confirm that we will increase our expressed the view during his pilots rather than any direct freedom from terror demands that presence in Afghanistan.” “We address on International Peace at combat role. He vowed the UK you can't let this be undone,” he have recently seen brutal attacks one of the Chinese university in would continue its military and added. -
Noor Demands Dostum's Return and End to Monopoly of Power
Eye on the News [email protected] Truthful, Factual and Unbiased Vol:XI Issue No:51 Price: Afs.20 www.afghanistantimes.af www.facebook.com/ afghanistantimeswww.twitter.com/ afghanistantimes SUNDAY . SEPTEMBER 17. 2017 -Sunbula 26, 1396 HS Members of the Wolesi Jirga (the AT Monitoring Desk control of a specific ethnic group. Lower House of Parliament) on He said the national unity Saturday raised concerns over a KABUL: Former presidential government is lacking proper range of issues including the advisor for good governance, representation and partnership of existence of corruption in the IEC, Ahmad Zia Massoud accused the all groups. the contract issue around the government of lack of will to He furthered economic and purchase of electronic equipment eliminate terrorism and brining political issues in the country for the IEC and the inactivity of reforms, Khaama Press reported. remain persistent but the supplies, eradicating enemy IEC officials. The concerns also Addressing the participants of government is not committed to strongholds, evacuating patients come days after the site operational a gathering in Mazar-e-Sharif to eliminate terrorism from the and wounded and also transferring chief of the Independent Election mark the week of martyrs, country. President Mohammad supplies to check-posts that are Commission was suspended over Massoud claimed the government Ashraf Ghani through a located in mountains,” MoD allegations relating to corruption. is not willing to bring reforms in presidential decree dismissed spokesman, Dawlat Waziri said. “Not only does the process the politics and other sectors of Massoud nearly five months ago. A few months ago, the United (election) need to be reviewed, but the government. -
Request for Proposal
Request for Proposal Danish Refugee Council House # 63&64, Lane # 1, Street # 3, PD # 3, Kart‐e‐Chahar Kabul, Afghanistan 20th June, 2017 To: All Interested parties Request for Proposal No: KBL RFP 003 Provision of Transportation and Rental Vehicle Services Dear Sir/Madam: Dear interested bidder(s), DRC and DDG requests you to submit price bid(s) Provision of transportation and rental vehicle services, descripted on the attached DRC and DDG Bid Form (Annex A, Lot 1 to 6) titled RFP No: KBL RFP 003 Provision of Transportation and Rental Vehicle Services. Therefore, the DRC requests you to submit price bid(s) for abovementioned services listed on the attached DRC Bid Form Annex A. 1. Tender Details The Tender details are as follows: Services: Provision of Transportation and Rental Vehicle Services RFP Release Date: 20th June, 2017 RFP Closure Date: 6th July, 2017 Time: 4:00pm Afghanistan Local time. RFP Pre‐Bid Submission: 22nd June, 2017 Time: 10:00am Afghanistan Local time. RFP Opening Date: 9th July, 2017 Time: 10:00am Afghanistan Local Time. Required Minimum validity period: 60 Official Working Days PLEASE NOTE: NO BIDS WILL BE ACCEPTED AFTER THE ABOVE CLOSING TIME AND DATE 2. Contract Award Criteria The criteria for awarding contracts resulting from this Tender is based on the ‘best value for money’ principle. For the purpose of this Tender DRC defines ‘best value for money’ as: Best value for money should not be equated with the lowest initial bid option. It requires an integrated assessment of technical, organizational and pricing factors in light of their relative importance (i.e. -
1 Person Killed in Balkh Blast Military Forces, We Used Artilleries Identity Cards
Eye on the News [email protected] Truthful, Factual and Unbiased Vol:XI Issue No:117 Price: Afs.20 www.afghanistantimes.af www.facebook.com/ afghanistantimeswww.twitter.com/ afghanistantimes THURSDAY . NOVEMBER 23. 2017 -Qaws 02, 1396 HS AT Monitoring Desk KABUL: Hundreds of people AT Monitoring Desk including tribal elders, university students and the youth gathered KABUL: Lawmakers in Wolesi Wednesday to ask the government Jirga on Wednesday expressed to immediately convene the anger against certain circles within traditional Loya Jirga to get the the unity government over country out of the current crisis. “making conspiracies” against Speakers claimed that the political movements and situation is now out of control. parliament. A number of They urged that only the Loya Jirga parliamentarians claimed the could help both the nation and the government’s leadership, including government to bring the worsening President Ashraf Ghani seeking situation under control. Religious their political interests in scholars and tribal elders from all provoking ethnic tensions in the the province’s districts expressed country, Ariana News reported. support of the traditional Loya Zahir Qadir said: “The government Jirga. They said that the current hatches conspiracy against the situation was leading the country parliament and political to a worse time. They emphasized movements.” “The government is that to put an end to the crisis, it is corrupted and this issue is necessary to call the traditional unacceptable for the people,” he KABUL : A plane carrying 20.5 coordination and cooperation Loya Jirga, through which, the added. “Certain circles in the metric tons of goods, including among government entities and the people get the chance to decide government are attempting to fruits and fresh fruits, departed private sector. -
Afghanistan Review Week 32 09 August 2011 Comprehensive Information on Complex Crises
CIVIL - MILITARY FUSION CEN TRE Afghanistan Review Week 32 09 August 2011 Comprehensive Information on Complex Crises INSIDE THIS ISSUE This document provides a weekly overview of developments in Afghanistan from 02 August—08 August 2011, with hyper-links to source material highlighted in blue and underlined in the text. For Economic Development more information on the topics below or other issues pertaining to events in Afghanistan, feel free to con- Governance & Rule of Law Humanitarian Affairs tact the members of the Afghanistan Team, or visit our website at www.cimicweb.org. Infrastructure Security & Force Protection Socio-Cultural Development Economic Development Steven A. Zyck ► [email protected] DISCLAIMER ontinuing a story from last week’s Afghanistan-Pakistan-India (TAPI) natural gas Afghanistan Review (see 02 August pipeline project is moving ahead, and an The Civil-Military Fusion Centre C 2011), Reuters reports that approxi- agreement on natural gas pricing is expected (CFC) is an information and mately 2,500 Afghanistan-bound shipping in the coming weeks. Afghanistan’s Ministry knowledge management containers continue to be held in Karachi, Pa- of Mines (MoM) indicates that the pricing organisation focused on improving kistan, as a result of a regulatory impasse re- agreement will enable the Afghan government civil-military interaction, facilitating lated to the Afghanistan-Pakistan Transit to project how much it can expect to receive in information sharing and enhancing Trade Agreement (APTTA). Under the APT- natural gas transit fees once the pipeline is situational awareness through the TA, importers are required to pay a non- operational. Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty CimicWeb portal and our weekly refundable fee to Pakistani banks or insurance did, however, report concerns that the pipeline and monthly publications.