National Drought Management Authority
LARGER MWINGI SUB COUNTY KITUI COUNTY EWS DROUGHT MONITORING BULLETIN SEPTEMBER 2013 Drought status for Larger Mwingi by livelihood zones, September 2013
EW S=Normal with a deteriorating trend
N
TSEIKURU EW S= Norm al with a deteriorating trend
W E
S MUMONI KYUSO NGOMENI
NGUNI CENTRAL MWINGI
NUU MIGWANI Mwingi Administrative boundaries Mwingi livelihood zones Agro-Pastoral Food Cropping Urban 0 50 100 Kilometers
Time line activities
Short rain harvest Long rains Long dry spell Short rains Jan Feb March Apr May June July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Land Long rains Land preparation, cereal preparation, planting /legume planting Lambing harvests Kidding/lambing and kidding coldest month is July
EWS: Mwingi, September 2013 1
Situation overview The month of September was characterized by hot and sunny days and windy and cloudy nights. No rains were received in the Larger Mwingi Sub County. This is normal at this time of the year. Food security situation is deteriorating due to declining household foodstocks, declining milk production and consumption. The quantity and quality of natural vegetation and pasture is poor across all livelihood zones. The vegetation consists of a standing browse only. This is normal at this time of the year. The main source of water for households this month is traditional river wells just as it was in previous months. There was an increase in average walking distances to water points and average grazing distances. The proportion of children at risk of malnutrition dropped by 1% to stand at 8% in the month of September. The current level of malnutrition is below normal. Mui Division had the highest number of children who are at risk of malnutrition at 19.5% indicative of 0.6% increase. Cases of Newcastle disease outbreak in poultry were reported in Migwani Division although we have also had numerous cases from other parts of the Sub County. Livestock body condition was good for small species with a stable trend but fair for large species. The early warning stage for the month of September can be termed as Normal with a deteriorating trend in all livelihood zones. Recommendations Repair and service key community water facilities so that they can be in good condition to withstand the expected water strain. Rain water harvesting fascillities should be prepaired in good time so as to maximise water harvesting for the fourth coming short rains season. Close monitoring on disease outbreak and children at risk of malnutrition in Migwani and Mui Divisions respectively. Support to immunization, health education, sensitization and supplementation of vitamin A. Support for peace building and reconciliation among communities bordering Mwingi Sub County and Tana River County. EWS: Mwingi, September 2013 2
Provision of seeds at a subsidized price to farmers in larger Mwingi Sub County. Timely early planting of crops is highly recommended as the Meterelogical depertment has forecasted below normal season for the coming short rains season. Planting of drought tolerant crops is also recommended as they have prooved to do well in the region. 1.0 Environmental indicators 1.1 Rainfall
Avarage rainfall in 2013 vs long term means 2006-2012
160 140 120 100 80 60 40
Rainfall in in mm Rainfall 20 0 Ma Ma Au No De Jan Feb Apr Jun Jul Sep Oct r y g v c Long term average 2006 - 2012 8 6 14 18 6 0 0 0 0 15 25 19 Average rainfall 2013 28.2 0 77 140 0 0 0 0 0 Data source: NDMA Mwingi N=36 Figure 1 No rainfall was recorded during the month of September and this is normal at this time of the year as seen in figure 1 above. The satellite images in both figure 2 and 3 below are also indicating absence of rainfall in September which is a normal pattern at this time of the year. However, there were very light drizzles along the hills of Migwani district as shown by figure 2 below.
EWS: Mwingi, September 2013 3
Migwani:September 2013 Tseikuru:September 2013 100.00 100 90.00 90 Migwani RFE Tseikuru 80 80.00 RFE 70 70.00
60 60.00 Rainfall (mm) Rainfall 50 50.00 40 40.00 30 30.00 20.00 20 (mm) Rainfall 10 10.00 0 0.00 1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Month/DekadJun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr MayMonth/Dekad Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Rainfall estimates (RFA) for Tseikuru and Migwani districts (Marginal mixed farming and mixed farming livelihood zones respectively) for September, 2013.
Figure 2(Source: FEWSNET)
Current rainfall status in Larger Long term rainfall status for Mwingi Mwingi Sub County, September 2013 Sub County, September period N N
W E W E
TS EIK U R U S TS EIK U R U S
M U M ON I M U M ON I KYU S O N GO M EN I KYU S O N GO M EN I
N GU N I N GU N I C EN T R A L C EN T R A L M W IN G I Mwingi Administrative boundaries M W IN G I Current rainfall situation 0 - 10 N U U N U U Mwingi Administrative boundaries M IG W AN I 10 - 20 M IG W AN I Long term rainfall situation 20 - 40 0 - 10 40 - 80 10 - 20 80 - 120 20 - 40 120 - 160 40 - 80 160 - 200 80 - 120 200 - 250 120 - 160 >250mm 160 - 200 No Data 200 - 250 >250mm No Data 0 90 180 Kilometers 0 90 180 Kilometers
The above larger Mwingi district maps shows a comparison of current vs. long term rainfall distribution for the month of September, 2013 Figure 3(Source: FEWSNET)
1.2 Condition of natural vegetation and pasture 1.2.1 Quality and Quantity of natural vegetation The quality of natural vegetation and pasture is poor while the quantity of natural vegetation and pasture is ranging from fair to poor at this time of the year in all livelihood zones. Grasses are dry and scattered in most parts of larger Mwingi. Trees EWS: Mwingi, September 2013 4
have shaded their leaves. Some farmers are feeding their livestock with fallen dried leaves and crop residues. This trend is expected to deteriorate until the beginning of the short rain season in mid October. However, the quantities are enough to last livestock up to the next short rains season 1.2.2 Distance to grazing areas
Average grazing distances in 2013 vs long term means 2006-2012 4.5
4 3.5 3 2.5 2 1.5
Distances in in km Distances 1 0.5 0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Long term average 2006 - 2012 2.5 2.7 3.2 3.1 3.2 3.5 3.8 4.1 4.2 3.9 1.6 1.8 Average grazing distances 2013 2 2.3 2.7 1.9 2.5 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.4 Data source:NDMA Mwingi N=36 Figure 4 The average grazing distances from household to the grazing fields increased to 3.4km in September from 3.1km last month. The Marginal mixed farming and the Mixed farming livelihood zones posted an average grazing distance of 3km and 3.7km respectively. The current average grazing distance is shorter than normal as shown in figure 4 above. 1.3 Water sources and availability
water sources by percentage Boreholes 11% Natural Rivers 6%
Springs Traditional 8% River wells 47% Shallow wells Pans 17% and Rock Catchments Dams 6% 5% Figure 5
EWS: Mwingi, September 2013 5
1.3.1 Water sources The current major water sources are traditional river wells, shallow wells and boreholes at 47%, 17% and 11% respectively as shown in figure 5 above. Shallow wells are more common in Marginal mixed farming livelihood zone while traditional river wells are common in Mixed farming livelihood zone. This is normal at this time of the month. Springs water and rock catchment are available in Marginal mixed farming livelihood zone while pans and dams are also available in Mixed farming livelihood zone. Boreholes and natural rivers are available in all livelihood zones 1.3.2 Household access to water
Average walking distances to water points in 2013 vs long term means 2007-2012
5 4 3 2 1 0 Distance in in kilometres Distance Ma Ma Au No De Jan Feb Apr Jun Jul Sep Oct r y g v c Long term average 2007 - 2012 2.6 2.9 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 3.7 1.7 1.6 Average walking distance 2013 2 2.5 2.9 2.1 2.7 3.4 3.5 3.5 3.7 Data source:NDMA N=36 Figure 6 Average walking distances to water points rose to 3.7km in September from 3.5km last month. The Marginal mixed farming and the Mixed farming livelihood zones posted an average walking distance of 3.6km and 3.7km respectively. The current average walking distance is 0.3km shorter than the long term mean as seen in figure 6 above. 1.4 Emerging issues 1.4.1 Conflict There is tension in Kavaani, Endau and Masyungwa locations in Ngomeni, Mwingi East and Tseikuru Sub counties after suspected Somali community members killed four people and one person in Twambui area in Endau Location and Kwa-kamari area in Masyungwa Location respectively. There was an unusual human-wildlife conflict reported in Nyanya community in Nuu Division whereby six goats were killed by some hyenas.
EWS: Mwingi, September 2013 6
1.5 Implication on food security Pasture quantity and quality is expected to continue deteriorating until the beginning of the next short rain season. The available pasture quantities are expected to last livestock for at least one month. Accessibility and availability of water is fair for now but the trend is expected to deteriorate due to already observed congestion on water points. 2 Rural indicators (food availability) 2.1 Livestock production 2.1.1 Livestock body condition Livestock body condition is good for small species like goat and sheep but fair for large species. Trees have shed down their leaves of which in addition to grasses and crop residues bring satisfaction to livestock dietary needs. Livestock body condition has remained stable at this time of the year. 2.1.2 Livestock diseases There was an outbreak of Newcastle disease in Migwani Division. 2.1.3 Milk production Milk production declined by 15% in September compared to the previous month. This trend is expected to decline due to deteriorating pasture quality and quantity. 2.2 Crop production 2.2.1 Timeliness and condition of various crop production activities Farmers are busy clearing their farms as they prepare for the short rain season. This is normal at this time of the year. 2.2.2 Pests and diseases No pests and diseases outbreak were reported. 2.2.3 Implication on food security Livestock productivity is expected to remain fairly good especially in terms of body condition but declining milk production and deteriorating pasture and browse quality and quantity are likely to have a negative impact on food security. Crop failure has increased reliance on market commodities among households.
EWS: Mwingi, September 2013 7
3 Access to food 3.1 Cattle prices
Average household cattle prices in 2013 vs long term means 2010-2012
40,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000
Prices in Ksh/head in Prices 5,000 0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Long term average 2010-2012 12,484 17,323 17,190 17,217 22,547 20,515 19,368 22,163 17,382 16,661 22,256 22,028 Average prices of cattle 2013 21,286 30,400 36,347 32,850 27,417 33,325 33,333 26,750 24,500 Data source:NDMA Mwingi N=360 Figure 7 The average household cattle prices declined to Kshs.24,500@head in September from Kshs.26,750 last month. The average household cattle prices for both Marginal mixed farming and Mixed farming livelihood zones were Kshs.37,500@head and Kshs.11,500@ head respectively. The price reductions can be attributed to presence of young stocks in the markets which attracts low prices. The young stocks are being for breeding purpose in anticipation of the short rains season. The current household cattle prices is still above normal as seen in figure 7 above. 3.2 Goat prices
Average household goat prices in 2013 vs long term means 2006-2012 4,500 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 Prices in Ksh /head Ksh in Prices 0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Long term average 2010 - 2012 2,068 2,024 2,520 2,402 2,462 2,361 2,432 2,445 2,475 2,429 2,381 2,060 Average prices of goat 2013 3,040 3,839 3,273 2,830 2,775 3,139 2,941 2,667 2,723 Data source: NDMA Mwingi N=360
Figure 8 The average household goat prices for both Marginal mixed farming and Mixed farming livelihood zones were Kshs.2,648@head and Kshs.2,798@ head respectively. The average household goat prices rose by 2% in September compared to last month to stand at Kshs.2,723@head. EWS: Mwingi, September 2013 8
The current household goat prices are still above normal as seen in figure 8 above. 3.3 Livestock sales
Average sales rate for goats in 2013 vs long term averages 2006-2012 4 3.5 3 2.5 2 1.5 1 0.5
Sales rate percentage in rate Sales 0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Long term average 2006 - 2012 3.4 3.6 3.1 2.7 3.2 3.5 3.6 3.7 3.5 3 3.5 3.3 Average sales rate for goat 3 1.9 1.4 1.8 2 1.4 2.4 1.4 2.6 Data source:NDMA Mwingi N=360
Figure 9 The sales rate for cattle dropped from 0.8% in the month of August to 0.4% in September. Goat sales rate rose to 2.6% in September from 1.4% last month. This implies that, fewer cattle and more goats were sold in September compared to last month. More cattle and goats were sold in the Mixed farming livelihood zone compared to Marginal mixed farming livelihood zone The current sales rate of goat is still below normal as shown in figure 9 above. 3.4 Milk consumption
Average household milk consumption in 2013 vs long term means 2007-2012
1.4
1.2 1 0.8
household 0.6 0.4 0.2
Consumption in 750ml bottle per bottle 750ml in Consumption 0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Long term average 2007 - 2012 0.9 1.2 0.9 0.8 1 1.1 0.8 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.6 0.8 Average milk consumption 2013 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.3 Data source: NDMA Mwingi N=360
Figure 10 The average household milk consumption is less than a bottle per household (750ml) just like it was last month. The trend has been declining due to reduced milk production which is associated with declining pasture conditions and water availabity
EWS: Mwingi, September 2013 9
Milk consumption is more enhanced in Marginal mixed farming livelihood zone compared to Mixed farming livelihood zone. 3.5 Crop prices. 3. 5.1Maize
Average household maize prices in 2013 vs long term means 2010-2012 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5
Prices in Ksh/kg in Prices 0 Ma Ma Au No De Jan Feb Apr Jun Jul Sep Oct r y g v c Average Maize Price 2004 - 28 29 28 29 31 36 37 34 32 30 32 32 2011 Average Maize price 2013 36 35 33 32 33 33 33 34 35 Data source:NDMA Mwingi N=360 Figure 11 The average household maize prices increased from Kshs.34@kg in August to Kshs.35@kg in the month of September. The prices in both Marginal mixed farming and Mixed farming livelihood zones were Kshs.37@kg and Kshs.34@kg respectively The trend is above normal at this time of the year as shown in figure 11 above. 3.5.2 Posho
Average household posho prices in 2013 vs long term means 2010-2012
50 40 30 20 Prices in Ksh /kg Ksh in Prices 10 0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Long term average 2010 - 2012 34 35 34 35 38 41 44 38 39 37 38 37 Average prices of posho 2013 42 Data42 source:NDMA 40 39 Mwingi40 40 41 38 43 N=360
Figure 12 The average household posho prices rose to Kshs.43@kg in September from Kshs.38@kg last month. The prices in both Marginal mixed farming and Mixed farming livelihood zones were Kshs.44@kg and Kshs.42@kg respectively. The rise could be attributed to rising fuel prices which is used in millilg. The trend is above normal at this time of the year as seen in figure 12 above.
EWS: Mwingi, September 2013 10
3.5.3 Beans
Average household beans prices in 2013 vs long term means 2010-2012 80 70 60 50 40 30
Prices in Ksh/kg in Prices 20 10 0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Long term average 2004 - 2011 61 60 62 65 71 74 68 68 68 69 68 66 Average beans prices 2013 68 62 64 65 66 67 71 73 72 Data source: NDMA Mwingi N=360
Figure 13 The average household beans prices dropped from Kshs.73@kg last month to Kshs.72@kg in September. The average household beans prices in both Marginal mixed farming and Mixed farming livelihood zones were Kshs.72@kg. The trend is above normal at this time of the year as shown in figure 13 above. 3.5.4Green grams
Average household green grams prices in 2013 vs long term means 2010-2012
100 80 60 40 20 Prices in Ksh/kg in Prices 0 Ma Ma Au No De Jan Feb Apr Jun Jul Sep Oct r y g v c Long term average 2010 - 2012 71 70 73 78 73 73 72 76 84 90 88 91 Average green grams prices 2013 54 54 46 54 46 53 52 53 49 Data source:NDMA Mwingi N=360
Fig 14 The average household green grams prices dropped from Kshs.53@kg last month to Kshs.49@kg in September. The prices in both Marginal mixed farming and Mixed farming livelihood zones were Kshs.52@kg and Kshs.46@kg respectively. The trend is still below normal as shown in figure 14 above.
EWS: Mwingi, September 2013 11
3.6 Household Income
Household income sources by percentage, August 2013 Crop sales 0% Sale of charcoal Gifts items 2% 1% Petty trading 15% Formal empolyment Casual labour 12% 43%
Livestock sales 9% Remittances 18% Figure 15 3.6.1 Crop income Crop sales constitute 0% of the total household income sources in the month of September. This was mainly attributed by poor harvest season. 3.6.2 Livestock income Livestock sales contributed 9% of the total household income in September just as it was in previous month. Livestock sales were more enhanced in Mixed farming livelihood zone compared to Marginal mixed farming livelihood zone. 3.6.3 Other sources of income Casual labour was the main source of income contributing about 43% of the total household income. This was followed by remittances from friends and relatives at 18% as shown in figure 15 above.
EWS: Mwingi, September 2013 12
3.7 Cereal: Meat price ratio
Purchasing power:Cereal-meat ratio in 2013 vs long term means 2006-2012 60 50 40 30
Percentage 20 10 0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Long term means 2006 - 2012 33 35 36 33 35 41 39 48 42 41 42 37 C:M RATIO 2013 39 25 30 29 35 29 32 33 38 Data source: NDMA Mwingi N=360
Figure 16 Terms of trade between cereal and meat products increased from 33% last month to 38% in September. The terms of trade for both Marginal mixed farming and Mixed farming livelihood zones were 41% and 34% respectively. The increment could have been caused by to rising cereal prices especially posho and maize prices. The current terms of trade is still below normal as seen in figure 16 above. 3.8 Implications on food security Crop prices are expected to remain stable due stable market supplies Declining milk production and consumption are likely to have a negative impact on food security. The current terms of trade are still in favour of livestock producers due to high prices of livestock animals. 4 Welfare 4.1 Nutritional status of children (Expressed in terms of MUAC)
Nutritional status of children under five years old(<135mm) in 2013 vs long term means 2006- 2012 18 16 14
12 10 8 6 4 malnutrition 2 0 Ma Ma Au No Jan Feb Apr Jun Jul Sep Oct Dec
r y g v Percentage of of children atrisk Percentageof Average MUAC from 2006-2012 15 14 13 13 14 14 14 16 14 15 14 13 MUAC 2013 8 10 10 8 8 8 8 9 8 Data source:NDMA Mwingi N=1,791
Figure 17 EWS: Mwingi, September 2013 13
The rate of malnutrition (the number of children at risk of malnutrition) dropped from 9% in August to 8% in the month of September. The average malnutrition rate was at 7.5% and 8.9% in the Marginal mixed farming and Mixed farming livelihood zones respectively. Mui Division had the highest number of children who were at risk of malnutrition in the month of September at 19.5% indicative of 0.6% increase compared to last month. This is suspected to be due to poor feeding habits among parents to their children. The current level of malnutrition is below normal as seen in figure 17 above. 4.2 Human health No human disease outbreak was reported in larger Mwingi Sub counties. Few cases of small pox, typhoid and coughing were reported in Nuu Division. 5 Current intervention measures and coping strategies 5.1 Coping strategies
Average coping strategy index in 2013 vs long term average 2006-2012
10 - 1.4 1.2 1 0.8 0.6 0.4
Coping strategy index 0 index strategy Coping 0.2 0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Average coping strategy index 1.1 0.7 0.9 0.9 1 0.7 1 0.8 0.9 1 1 1.3 2006-2011 Coping strategy index 2013 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.8 1 Data source:NDMA Mwingi N=360 Figure 18 The coping strategy index rose from 0.8 in August to stand at 1.0 in the month of September. The coping strategy index in both Marginal mixed farming and Mixed farming livelihood zones were 1.3 and 0.7 respectively. The index is above normal at this time of the year as shown in figure 18 above.
EWS: Mwingi, September 2013 14
5.2 Non food interventions ADRA Kenya is implementing a livelihood improvement programme in parts of Mwingi Central district. The programme is mostly focusing on agricultural activities such as kitchen gardening. The Rome based UN Organizations (i.e. FAO, WFP and IFAD) in collaboration with various Government agencies have initiated a three year joint programming project in Tseikuru, Mwingi East and Kyuso Sub Counties. The project has identified 9 sites where it will be implemented. Larger Mwingi Sub County has been identified as one of the 3 pilot areas in Kenya. 5.3 Food interventions Cash for Asset programme is ongoing targeting 71,777 beneficiaries in Kyuso, Tseikuru and Mwingi East Sub Counties. This is a joint programme between the Government of Kenya and World Food Programme (WFP). School feeding programme is being undertaken in selected schools in Larger Mwingi Sub County. Supplementary feeding programme is being implemented in selected health facilities within Larger Mwingi Sub County targeting 6,263 children under the age of five years. 5.4 Recommendations Repair and service key community water facilities so that they can be in good condition to withstand the expected water strain. Close monitoring on disease outbreak and children at risk of malnutrition in Migwani and Mui Divisions respectively. Support to integrated health campaigns such as immunization, supplementary feeding practices among others is required. Support for peace building and reconciliation among communities bordering Mwingi Sub County and Tana River County. The County leadership of Kitui and Tana river County should come together and find a lasting solution to this problem. Provision of seeds at a subsidized price to farmers in larger Mwingi Sub County.
EWS: Mwingi, September 2013 15