National Drought Management Authority LARGER MWINGI SUB COUNTY KITUI COUNTY EWS DROUGHT MONITORING BULLETIN SEPTEMBER 2013 Drought status for Larger Mwingi by livelihood zones, September 2013 EW S=Normal with a deteriorating trend N TSEIKURU EW S= Norm al with a deteriorating trend W E S MUMONI KYUSO NGOMENI NGUNI CENTRAL MWINGI NUU MIGWANI Mwingi Administrative boundaries Mwingi livelihood zones Agro-Pastoral Food Cropping Urban 0 50 100 Kilometers Time line activities Short rain harvest Long rains Long dry spell Short rains Jan Feb March Apr May June July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Land Long rains Land preparation, cereal preparation, planting /legume planting Lambing harvests Kidding/lambing and kidding coldest month is July EWS: Mwingi, September 2013 1 Situation overview The month of September was characterized by hot and sunny days and windy and cloudy nights. No rains were received in the Larger Mwingi Sub County. This is normal at this time of the year. Food security situation is deteriorating due to declining household foodstocks, declining milk production and consumption. The quantity and quality of natural vegetation and pasture is poor across all livelihood zones. The vegetation consists of a standing browse only. This is normal at this time of the year. The main source of water for households this month is traditional river wells just as it was in previous months. There was an increase in average walking distances to water points and average grazing distances. The proportion of children at risk of malnutrition dropped by 1% to stand at 8% in the month of September. The current level of malnutrition is below normal. Mui Division had the highest number of children who are at risk of malnutrition at 19.5% indicative of 0.6% increase. Cases of Newcastle disease outbreak in poultry were reported in Migwani Division although we have also had numerous cases from other parts of the Sub County. Livestock body condition was good for small species with a stable trend but fair for large species. The early warning stage for the month of September can be termed as Normal with a deteriorating trend in all livelihood zones. Recommendations Repair and service key community water facilities so that they can be in good condition to withstand the expected water strain. Rain water harvesting fascillities should be prepaired in good time so as to maximise water harvesting for the fourth coming short rains season. Close monitoring on disease outbreak and children at risk of malnutrition in Migwani and Mui Divisions respectively. Support to immunization, health education, sensitization and supplementation of vitamin A. Support for peace building and reconciliation among communities bordering Mwingi Sub County and Tana River County. EWS: Mwingi, September 2013 2 Provision of seeds at a subsidized price to farmers in larger Mwingi Sub County. Timely early planting of crops is highly recommended as the Meterelogical depertment has forecasted below normal season for the coming short rains season. Planting of drought tolerant crops is also recommended as they have prooved to do well in the region. 1.0 Environmental indicators 1.1 Rainfall Avarage rainfall in 2013 vs long term means 2006-2012 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 Rainfall in in mm Rainfall 20 0 Ma Ma Au No De Jan Feb Apr Jun Jul Sep Oct r y g v c Long term average 2006 - 2012 8 6 14 18 6 0 0 0 0 15 25 19 Average rainfall 2013 28.2 0 77 140 0 0 0 0 0 Data source: NDMA Mwingi N=36 Figure 1 No rainfall was recorded during the month of September and this is normal at this time of the year as seen in figure 1 above. The satellite images in both figure 2 and 3 below are also indicating absence of rainfall in September which is a normal pattern at this time of the year. However, there were very light drizzles along the hills of Migwani district as shown by figure 2 below. EWS: Mwingi, September 2013 3 Migwani:September 2013 Tseikuru:September 2013 100.00 100 90.00 90 Migwani RFE Tseikuru 80 80.00 RFE 70 70.00 60 60.00 Rainfall (mm) 50 50.00 40 40.00 30 30.00 20.00 20 Rainfall (mm) 10 10.00 0 0.00 1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Month/DekadJun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr MayMonth/Dekad Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Rainfall estimates (RFA) for Tseikuru and Migwani districts (Marginal mixed farming and mixed farming livelihood zones respectively) for September, 2013. Figure 2(Source: FEWSNET) Current rainfall status in Larger Long term rainfall status for Mwingi Mwingi Sub County, September 2013 Sub County, September period N N W E W E TS EIK U R U S TS EIK U R U S M U M ON I M U M ON I KYU S O N GO M EN I KYU S O N GO M EN I N GU N I N GU N I C EN T R A L C EN T R A L M W IN G I Mwingi Administrative boundaries M W IN G I Current rainfall situation 0 - 10 N U U N U U Mwingi Administrative boundaries M IG W AN I 10 - 20 M IG W AN I Long term rainfall situation 20 - 40 0 - 10 40 - 80 10 - 20 80 - 120 20 - 40 120 - 160 40 - 80 160 - 200 80 - 120 200 - 250 120 - 160 >250mm 160 - 200 No Data 200 - 250 >250mm No Data 0 90 180 Kilometers 0 90 180 Kilometers The above larger Mwingi district maps shows a comparison of current vs. long term rainfall distribution for the month of September, 2013 Figure 3(Source: FEWSNET) 1.2 Condition of natural vegetation and pasture 1.2.1 Quality and Quantity of natural vegetation The quality of natural vegetation and pasture is poor while the quantity of natural vegetation and pasture is ranging from fair to poor at this time of the year in all livelihood zones. Grasses are dry and scattered in most parts of larger Mwingi. Trees EWS: Mwingi, September 2013 4 have shaded their leaves. Some farmers are feeding their livestock with fallen dried leaves and crop residues. This trend is expected to deteriorate until the beginning of the short rain season in mid October. However, the quantities are enough to last livestock up to the next short rains season 1.2.2 Distance to grazing areas Average grazing distances in 2013 vs long term means 2006-2012 4.5 4 3.5 3 2.5 2 1.5 Distances in in km Distances 1 0.5 0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Long term average 2006 - 2012 2.5 2.7 3.2 3.1 3.2 3.5 3.8 4.1 4.2 3.9 1.6 1.8 Average grazing distances 2013 2 2.3 2.7 1.9 2.5 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.4 Data source:NDMA Mwingi N=36 Figure 4 The average grazing distances from household to the grazing fields increased to 3.4km in September from 3.1km last month. The Marginal mixed farming and the Mixed farming livelihood zones posted an average grazing distance of 3km and 3.7km respectively. The current average grazing distance is shorter than normal as shown in figure 4 above. 1.3 Water sources and availability water sources by percentage Boreholes 11% Natural Rivers 6% Springs Traditional 8% River wells 47% Shallow wells Pans 17% and Rock Catchments Dams 6% 5% Figure 5 EWS: Mwingi, September 2013 5 1.3.1 Water sources The current major water sources are traditional river wells, shallow wells and boreholes at 47%, 17% and 11% respectively as shown in figure 5 above. Shallow wells are more common in Marginal mixed farming livelihood zone while traditional river wells are common in Mixed farming livelihood zone. This is normal at this time of the month. Springs water and rock catchment are available in Marginal mixed farming livelihood zone while pans and dams are also available in Mixed farming livelihood zone. Boreholes and natural rivers are available in all livelihood zones 1.3.2 Household access to water Average walking distances to water points in 2013 vs long term means 2007-2012 5 4 3 2 1 0 Distance in in kilometres Distance Ma Ma Au No De Jan Feb Apr Jun Jul Sep Oct r y g v c Long term average 2007 - 2012 2.6 2.9 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 3.7 1.7 1.6 Average walking distance 2013 2 2.5 2.9 2.1 2.7 3.4 3.5 3.5 3.7 Data source:NDMA N=36 Figure 6 Average walking distances to water points rose to 3.7km in September from 3.5km last month. The Marginal mixed farming and the Mixed farming livelihood zones posted an average walking distance of 3.6km and 3.7km respectively. The current average walking distance is 0.3km shorter than the long term mean as seen in figure 6 above.